08:00 PM CBB [741] North Carolina +4.5 -150 (B+2)
09:00 PM CBB [744] UTEP +245
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [778] Furman +1-115
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [783] Belmont -3-150 (B+2)
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [786] Wofford -4.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [8] Columbus Blue Jackets -223
07:05 PM NHL [10] Boston Bruins -125
07:35 PM NHL [17] Los Angeles Kings +100
1 unit bet pays 177 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
ESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo - VCU allowed a go-ahead 3-pt FG with 0.4 seconds left in each of its last 2 games. VCU won both games.
North Carolina +2?
Well coach ?K? is back, the Blue Devils (18-5) are at home and the national press in talking Duke. Granted this is same floor revenge for Duke who lost here last March 76-72 to UNC (21-4), but the Heels have won their last 9-of-10 SU (5-5 ATS) and they are the underdog. The dog in the series is 6-2 ATS with the road unit 19-7 ATS. Fundamental advantages bring a young Duke team looking to drive higher in the polls with an aggressive defense holding the opposition to 67.9 points per game. Critical too, here is their foul shooting which has been super last five games @ 78.4%. That?s an important edge on your home floor in a rivalry game, but UNC is the better rebounding team. In fact, they are #1 in the nation in rebounding their own shots @ 42.8%. If forward Pinson is back for the Tar Heels the bench will solidify a nice addition. With all the line pressure, coach ?K? in the building you can be assured the public will be pushing the number higher. So, from the contrarian standpoint, we must take the points and back UNCs incredible 5-1 ATS recent mark at Duke.
Temple +7.5
The Mustangs have gone down in defeat only once over the last 2+ months. That loss just so happened to be incurred by the opponent up next on the docket in the form of the Cincinnati Bearcats. SMU dropped a tough 66-64 decision at Cincy back on January 12, and there?s no doubt Ben Moore and company will be looking forward to returning home to seek revenge for that defeat this Sunday. That could pose a major issue for those looking to lay the points with SMU possibly overlooking Temple for bigger game over the weekend.
The Owls have struggled against the Ponies of late in dropping four of the L/5 meetings, but the two times they hosted this rivalry saw them win outright 89-80 as 6-point underdogs and fall 60-55 as 3-point underdogs. Seriously though, if you plan on taking the points with the home team, know full well SMU is the much better of these two teams. Ojeyele and his mates toyed with Temple in the first go round bolting out to a 40-22 halftime lead then cruised to the 79-65 win and cover as 11.5 point favorites. They outboarded the Owls 40-22 and shot 48% overall. The only two factors that could prevent another SMU romp is Temple being much better at home, and the Mustangs looking past it for Sunday?s tilt with the Bearcats. I like to press my luck in these types of spots, so I?ll take the points and hope Temple shows up like it did versus Memphis and Cincinnati.
Oregon @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA -4.5
Oregon sits atop the Pac-12 after a statement win over fifth-ranked Arizona on Saturday. Tyler Dorsey hit six 3-pointers and scored 23 points to lead the Ducks to an 85-58 drubbing of the Wildcats setting up a Thursday night showdown with No. 11 UCLA. Oregon has an 89-87 victory over the Bruins under its belt already and has lost just once in its last 20 games.
UCLA (21-3, 8-3) is coming off of back-to-back wins over Washington and Washington State. The Bruins handled both teams easily using their frantic style of play to pound both teams into submission. UCLA is second in the nation in scoring averaging 92.9 points per game. When head coach Steve Alford?s Bruins get to 90, they are tough to beat. In all three of the Bruins losses, they failed to hit the 90-point mark.
UCLA is led by their superstar freshmen, T.J. Leaf and Lonzo Ball. Leaf is the team?s leading scorer averaging 17.1 ppg. He is also UCLA?s leading rebounder (8.9 rpg). Ball scores 15.1 points and leads the team with 7.8 assists per game. Alford?s son, Bryce, averages 16.4 points and is another of the six Bruins that averages in double figures. If
If there is a team in the Pac-12 that can keep up with UCLA, it is Oregon. The Ducks are athletic, can run, and they play great defense. The Ducks are a Top 25 defensive team (23rd in the nation, 63.5 ppg). Dillon Brooks (14.4 ppg) is as good as any in the conference and 6-10 Chris Boucher (12.4 ppg) is a defensive force averaging nearly seven rebounds and three blocked shots per game.
Florida Atlantic -7
Florida Atlantic is putting things together and will be a tough draw in Conference USA Tournament for somebody. The Owls have reeled off three straight Conference wins, all on the road. They have seven players averaging between ( 7-10 ) points per game and have depth that can wear teams down. Meanwhile, North Texas has dropped 11 straight games and is winless, ( 0-8 ) on the road this season. They have not been closer than 7 points in any of their five road losses inside Conference play. I expect Coach Mike Curry to have his Owls ready to keep momentum rolling and pull within a game of .500 in CUSA. I like FAU by double digits.
Wofford -4.5
Wofford is peaking right now, winning 3 in a row and 6 of last 8 games. Fletcher Magee & Eric Garcia combine 32 points per game and have been instrumental in the Terriers rise. One of the blemishes inside the Southern Conference was a buzzer beater at Samford in overtime last month. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs of Samford start a 3-game road stretch against the 3 of the best teams in the Conference. Furman & Chattanooga, who battle each other tonight at Furman are both on deck for Samford. The Terriers will beat you when they are hitting their three's as they have had several games with 13 or more three's in a contest. The only game they did that and lost was the OT loss at Samford. Look for Wofford to get rolling sometime in the first half with back-to-back triples and open things up. I expect Wofford to wear down the Bulldogs and get the home win between 8-16 points.
N. Kentucky -4
Northern Kentucky held a 10 point lead 42-32 at halftime up in Green Bay last month. That lead ballooned to 15 points, 49-34 a few minutes into the second half. Then the Norse hit a wall and the the basket shrunk up and seemed to completely disappear. Give credit to Green Bay for coming back and getting the home win but it was a meltdown by NKU that fueled the come back. Northern Kentucky has won 3 of their last 4 games including a road win at Wright State in their last contest. The game should be close for awhile but I expect NKU to pull away down the stretch
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Pick: Under
Wisconsin (20-3) is a powerhouse defensive teams under Greg Gard, on 16-1 SU run. They are off a 65-50 win against Indiana. #1 in the Big 10 in scoring defense (59.8 ), #5 in field goal defense (40%). Wisconsin is 22-8 under the total on the road and 19-8 under away against a team with a winning home record. Nebraska is #13 in the Big 10 in scoring (71 pg), relying too much on 6-4 senior G Tai Webster (18 ppg) to carry the load. Sophomore guard Glynn Watson (14 ppg) is in a shooting slump, 0-4 vs Iowa, and they lost 6-7 sophomore Ed Morrow (10 p, 7 rpg) to a foot injury. Nebraska is 8-2-1 under the total as a home dog of +7 to +12.5.
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Pick: Wisconsin -8
The Wisconsin Badgers seem to not be considered a top-flight program, or among the elite in college basketball. But this program has quietly put together four seasons of 30+ wins in their last 10, and at 20-3 this year they will challenge to make that five. One of the things that makes this team special is their play on the defensive end of the floor. In their last 378 games, the Badgers have allowed just 58.2 points per game. That poises them to win and cover a lot of games. When the Badgers hold opponents to that 10 year average or less, they are 114-52-2 ATS. They have held 15 opponents to 65 or fewer points this season, a mark that has earned them a 155-100-5 ATS mark over the last 10 years. I think they get that done tonight, which stacks the odds substantially in their favor.
James Madison vs. NC-Wilmington
Play: NC-Wilmington -14?
It's a huge mismatch as UNC Wilmington hosts James Madison. The Dukes have lost five of their last six including a home contest with these same Seahawks losing 87-76 in a game where both teams shot over 50% from the field. JMU has won just one conference road game at Hofstra, but they don't have the offense to keep up especially now that Yohanny Dalembert is out for the season. The Seahawks are crushing people at home beating Delaware by 28, William and Mary by 24 and Elon by 16. Teams have tried to slow them down at home and not many has had success outside of Charleston. I think the Seahawks can name their score in an easy win.
Belmont (-4.5) over Jacksonville State
I will go with the Bruins in this one. This team is on fire. Belmont has won 13 straight games and they are on a 7-1 ATS run in their last eight games. The Bruins are dominating the OVC. They are on the road for this game, but that has not been a problem at all. They have won seven straight road games. Last week they went to rival Murray State and won by 12 points in a game that was never close. They also beat Tennessee State, another OVC competitor, by 17 points on the road on Jan. 28. Belmont has won seven straight games by at least 10 points, and I expect them to do the same thing here. Belmont already beat Jacksonville State by 17 points once this year, and JSU is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. The Gamecocks are just 3-3 SU in their six league home games. They don't have a great home-court advantage, and I don't think they will have enough to get the job done here. Take Belmont.
Don't sleep on the Bruins!
Belmont hits Jacksonville State riding a season-high 13 game winning streak, and better still, the Bruins have recorded against the spread wins in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8.
Included in that stretch is a January 19th home win and cover over Jax State, 77-60. That "W" put the series winning streak at 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall for the Bruins.
Jacksonville State is just 1-4 against the spread in their lined home games this season, and just 1-8 overall their last 9 lined home dates.
Lay the small road wood tonight with Belmont.
Cleveland St. vs. Valparaiso
Pick: Cleveland St.
Cleveland State is having a tough season, but it's been more "unlucky" than "bad." The Vikings are just 7-17 straight up, but seven of those losses have been five points or less. The vast majority of the close defeats have come in Horizon League play. Case in point; they just fell by two at home to Oakland on Saturday (still covered as 4-pt dogs). Three of the team's last four losses have now been by three points or less (six points total!).
At the opposite end of the "luck" spectrum is where Valpo resides. According to KenPom, the Crusaders have been one of the 10 luckiest teams in America this season. Many of their close wins came in the non-conference portion of the schedule, however. They'd been rolling in Horizon League play; that was until running into Green Bay on Saturday. On the road, Valpo was blown out 86-69 as 5.5-pt favorites.
That loss will undoubtedly have Valparaiso motivated here, but Cleveland State comes in looking for revenge. So the underdog won't be lacking for motivation either. Last month, Valpo won as 5.5-pt chalk in downtown Cleveland, 78-67. Considering the Crusaders went just 2 for 11 from three-point range in that game, it was clearly a missed opportunity for CSU. Valpo is now 6-0 SU vs. CSU the L3 seasons, covering all but once, but the Vikings have shown they can hang tough in games. I don't think the underdog wins outright here, but they keep it close.
DREXEL +4? over William & Mary
For The Tribe of William & Mary, it really has been a tale of two seasons. At home, W&M remains unblemished by sporting a sparkling 11-0 record in Williamsburg. In addition, W&M own some rather impressive wins on their own court, as they were the first CAA team to hand the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks a loss. However, on the road, they seem quite mortal, as their 2-10 record away from Williamsburg will attest to. The books have been keen on noticing this trend because every time they have traveled away from their cozy confines, this outfit is being offered with points. Taking back points when traveling to Duke or Louisville is to be expected but this Tribe team has been offered points on the road a few times and have failed to deliver over and over again. Case study #1 ? Northeastern. The Tribe got whacked by the Huskies when they traveled to Northeastern as a 2?-point pup on New Year?s Eve. Northeastern would smash W&M by a margin of 20 points. Case study #2 - W&M would defeat Elon University at home by a trey on January 5th. In their follow-up 16 days later at Elon U, the Tribe would falter and be beaten by nine points. Case study #3 - Hampton. W&M lost to Hampton by 10 points, which further illustrates the woes this team suffers most of the time when it is traveling. Case study #4 ? Towson. Most recently, the Tribe was taking back points on the road against a weak Towson team and they lost again. Now, for the first time this year, W&M is spotting points on the road in a position that has already proven to be a fatal chink in its armor.
The Dragons of Drexel are a hard sell, as they are currently riding a four-game losing streak while posting a 2-8 record overall in their last 10. In addition, Drexel lost to this very William & Mary team in Williamsburg on January 30th by 27 points. Now the market only sees 1/5 of that number as the asking price and will be enticed into playing the wrong side. Drexel is a 4-5 basketball team on their own court this season and if there was ever a situation that could prime them to get off the snide, this would be it. That said, this is not about backing the Dragoons. It?s about playing value and in that regard, the Tribe cannot and should not be spotting road points to anyone within their division. Take the points.
Furman Pk
Furman gets a shot a revenge here for their worst loss of the season at T-Chat earlier this season. T-Chat spent the night on the FT line, and what's interesting is that they were out-rebounded on the offensive glass by Furman, and turned the ball over a few more times. Chattanooga has a really bad loss at home to VMI, and although they've won on the road, not necessarily in convincing fashion. Furman just won three straight conference road games, and at home HAD been blowing people out. I don't expect they'll blow T-Chat out - it'd be nice - but I do expect them to win. They ARE in first place in the Conference and have played a tougher conference SOS than T-Chat. They have a better defense and a more efficient offense. That's all I got.
N. COLORADO +108 over Idaho
Cowan Spectrum was thumping Saturday night in Moscow, as the Vandals took down Sacramento State in a game that was much closer than the 81-67 score would indicate. Idaho got off to an incredibly hot start by going up by as many as 19 in the first half but once they got that big lead, they milked it for the rest of the game. The Vandals have won six of their last seven so we can understand how they might be an appealing choice as just a -1? point favorite. A closer look at the schedule shows us this game tonight in Northern Colorado may be a big letdown spot after that emotional home win Saturday night. Next up for Idaho is a huge rivalry game with North Dakota. That's a game they must win if they want to stay in contention for a Big Sky title and an at-large bid. This pit stop in Greeley, Colorado could be easily overlooked.
Northern Colorado is coming off a hard fought overtime loss at North Dakota. Even though they lost by 10, the score was misleading. The Bears did not trail in the second half until there was just nine seconds left and the Hawks were able to force overtime. UND rode out a 9-0 run in OT to seal the deal. While the result was surely disappointing, the Bears have to be feeling good about hanging with one of the top-3 teams in the Big Sky Conference. There's no shame in losing to the Fighting Hawks in Grand Forks. The Bears are coming off three straight road games so this is their first game in Greeley since January 21st. Bank of Colorado arena should be jumping. Northern Colorado is 8-14 and has won just one of their last seven games, so how can they be getting less than a basket at home to a team as hot at the Vandals? Toss in the fact that Idaho is 3-0 against the Bears since returning to the Big Sky and we see a situation that is enticing the market into making what will likely be a losing wager. This trip to Northern Colorado is more of an inconvenience for the Vandals and the odds makers know it. The dog outright gets this call. .
Santa Clara vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -5?
The San Francisco Dons have been a money-making machine in West Coast Conference action. They are 17-8 SU and 13-8 ATS on the season. They may be the third-best team in the WCC behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's, and they have been lighting it up of late.
Indeed, the Dons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their only non-cover came at St. Mary's in a game in which they were tied at halftime with the Gaels before getting blown out in the second half. They have actually won six of their last seven games straight up with all six victories coming by double-digits.
I like this spot for San Francisco, which will be out for revenge from a 58-72 road loss at Santa Clara in their first meeting this season on December 31st. And Santa Clara just played Gonzaga last time out, so it will be hard for them to get motivated to play the Dons here, especially having already beaten them once this season.
The Dons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. The Dons are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: Loyola-Marymount +18
I like the value here with the Lions at home against the No. 1 ranked team in the country. This is the biggest game of the season for Loyola-Marymount and I expect an all out effort here at home against the Bulldogs. On the flip side of this, this is a bad spot for Gonzaga, who has what most are calling their biggest threat left on the schedule on deck in two days at St. Mary's.
Given that the Bulldogs already beat the Lions by 38 at home, they will have a hard time taking this game seriously. Keep in mind that Loyola was only a 19.5-point dog at Gonzaga. Bad teams are often not competitive on the road, but can keep games surprisingly close at home and the Lions have done that this season. They only lost by 12 at home to St Mary's, but just 5 to BYU and only 3 to UConn in non-conference play. You also have to realize the books have inflated this line not only causes Gonzaga is No. 1, but they know the public will want nothing to do with the Lions.
Oregon +4 over UCLA
The Bruins are the #9 team in the country thanks in large part to their 92.9 points per game. UCLA thrives on its transition game to rack up points. The only downside to that style of play is that it leaves them vulnerable to the opposition's attack. This has been the Bruins downfall. They can't play defense. UCLA was flying high after ripping off 13 wins to start the season but then dropped two straight conference games to Arizona and USC. UCLA spent most of the first month of the season pounding on second tier West Coast schools like Pacific, Northridge, San Diego and Long Beach State. When we take a closer look to that hot start to the season, it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds. For a top-10 team, the Bruins have only played the 87th ranked schedule in the country and we can't help but wonder if scheduling cupcakes earlier in the year has done them a disservice. Tonight UCLA will face one of the stingiest defenses in the Pac-12 when the Oregon Ducks come to Pauley Pavilion.
The #6 ranked Ducks are on a roll after two straight wins including a huge 85-58 victory over Arizona last Saturday. The Ducks shot an impressive 62.5 percent from the field but they've got it done on both ends of the court all season. Oregon has been downright stingy by allowing just 63.5 points per game. That's good for #2 in the conference right behind Cal's 63.1. Unlike the Bruins, the Ducks bring a balanced attack to this game. The UCLA Bruins have only been outscored in transition one time this season. That was against these Ducks in a game played up in Eugene back in December. The Ducks are in better form and can actually play defense so we'll scoop up these generous points in a heartbeat because that?s where all the value lies. When you play ranked teams at home in popular markets, you will pay a premium to do so and that is certainly in play here.
BYU vs. Pepperdine
Play: BYU -9
The Cougars take on Pepperdine Thursday and the visitors minus the points has value. BYU gets overlooked because of what Gonzales and St Mary's do in the conference, but this team is extremely talented.
BYU has the advantage here both offensively in the paint and defensively as far as speed goes. They should be able to control the pace of this one and really make things uncomfortable for Pepperdine.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. Waves are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games overall and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
St. Louis vs. Toronto
Play: St. Louis +120
I delivered a free play winner last week with this same matchup as the St. Louis Blues trounced the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1. It was the Blues' first game after the firing of head coach Ken Hitchcock with Mike Yeo taking over behind the bench. The same two teams meet tonight in Toronto and even though it is a revenge situation for the Leafs, the Blues are playing too well and getting too good of a price tag here to pass up. St. Louis is 3-1 since the coaching change and they have registered extremely impressive back-to-back shutouts on the road against Philadelphia and Ottawa by a combined score of 8-0. The goaltending from Jake Allen which had been shaky for much of the season has been better of late and the team is buying into being much more assertive, especially paying more attention to detail defensively in their own zone. Toronto has had problems defensively and keeping the puck out of their own net for several games now and that could be a problem tonight. St. Louis is 5-2 in the last seven meetings against Toronto and at the current +120 price, there is still value on this morphing Blues team playing with renewed energy and confidence.
Los Angeles -1? +297 over FLORIDA
We?re going to split this wager into two parts. We?re playing the Kings at a pick-em for 1 unit and we?re playing the Kings -1? +297 for 1 unit to make up our tradition 2 unit wager. Therefore, our wagers are as follows:
L.A. -1? +297 (Risking 1 unit)
L.A. -102 (Risking 1.02 units to win 1).
Los Angeles has been shutout in back-to-back games and it has gone three straight games without a goal in regulation time. The Kings last five-on-five goal was on February 1 but we?re not concerned in the least. Results influence the market while actual performances do not and in that regard, there is not a team in the NHL that is coming close to matching the Kings? possession and defensive numbers right now. L.A. has held its last four opponents to 22, 17, 20 and 21 shots on net. In their last two losses to Washington and Tampa Bay respectively, the Kings held a significant shots on net edge of 64-41. Washington scored five goals on 20 shots on net and Tampa scored five goals on 21 shots while the Kings scored zero goals on 64 shots. That is simply a case of puck luck working against the Kings but their high quality scoring chances have been significantly higher than every team they have played since the break. What most are going to read or hear about is a Kings? slump right now but that?s laughable because they?re playing better now than they have in a long time without the results.
We like the Panthers and trust they are going to be a tough out for the remainder of the year and a definite threat to make the playoffs. However, the fade is once again on against teams? coming off their bye week. That bye week is mandatory for every team and includes no practices. It?s a week vacation away from hockey. Teams? coming off the bye this year are 1-4 straight up with the only team not suffering a loss being the Maple Leafs but Toronto was outshot 36-24. Teams? coming off the break have proven to be flat and usually need a game to get back into the swing of things. A hungry Los Angeles squad that is playing at a high level is likely going to prove to be too much for the a Panthers? bunch that is not only coming off the bye but that has played just three games (because of All-Star break) since Jan 23.
Nashville +113 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. We were down on the Preds for quite some time earlier this year but their play lately has us taking a different position. Nashville?s intensity level is finally where it needs to be. The Preds are playing with the same heart and determination the past month that they have displayed for years and that made them such a tough out. Perhaps P.K Subban being back on the ice and his infectious enthusiasm has something to do with it. Whatever the case, the Preds are playing their best hockey of the year. Nashville has won nine of its past 13 games. Completely healthy and in great form, the Preds bring their great possession numbers with them and now get a rare opportunity to play at Madison Square Gardens against a weak possession team.
The Rangers have won three straight. Frankly, we don?t know how they win one straight. Kevin Klein and Dan Girardi getting top-4 minutes on defense is remarkable. You will not find two worse d-men getting top-4 minutes in the entire league and might have to go back 50 years to find two d-men on the same team less competent than that pair. The Rangers have allowed more high scoring chances against than 28 of the 30 NHL teams. They have spent more time in their own end than 26 of the 30 teams. The media or standings will suggest that the Rangers are Stanley Cup hopefuls and we?re suggesting that they are a first-round exit waiting to happen. We?ll see what happens at the trade deadline, as New York is in position to deal one of their quality forwards for a quality defenseman. Should they fail to make a deal, the Rags will be gone in round one. In their last game against Anaheim, the Rags played 80% of it in their own end and won 4-1. New York has drawn just one lousy penalty three times in their last four games because they are always in their own end and not creating offensively. The Preds figure to have a large possession advantage here. Defensively, mismatches this big are rare occurrences and it doesn?t favor the host. The Rangers scare us for sure because of their depth up front but the entire picture reveals a weak team that plays far too many minutes in their own to be winning at the pace that they are.
ARIZONA +136 over Montreal
OT included. We just hope we?re not too late to this party but have you seen the Canadiens play lately? Montreal has lost four straight and just got shutout by Colorado, 4-0. Not scoring on the Avs is no easy feat and it?s worth noting that Tyson Barrie missed that game for Colorado. Montreal has scored one goal or less in seven of its past 13 games. They have scored two or less in four straight but it?s not the lack of goals that are concerning because puck luck plays a role, it?s the lack of chances and intensity. Montreal has mustered a mere 27, 22, 22, 16, 22 and 20 shots on goal in six of its last seven games. They rank dead last in the NHL in scoring chances over the past month. Carey Price is laboring too. When Price went down last year, the Canadiens were one of the worst teams in the NHL. After a hot start again this year, Montreal is again proving to be one of the easiest teams to play against only right now, Price isn?t bailing them out every game. With this being the year of the fired coaches, Montreal?s might be next, as this team is not responding to Michel Therrien for the second year in a row.
By contrast, Arizona is playing at a high level after a brutal 3? months. The Coyotes have won four of their last six games. Their two losses over that span came against Chicago and Los Angeles, both by one goal and we?re here to tell you that they were all over the Blackhawks. The Coyotes are healthy with Max Domi back. Recent call-ups Brendan Perlini and Lawson Crouse has given the ?Yotes an energy boost. That pair has not only energized the team but both are high draft picks with great talent. Throw in a rock solid defense that can move the puck and the Coyotes are primed to ruin some playoff hopes down the stretch. The best news is that Arizona is greatly undervalued because pf their horrible record. We are making a commitment to them the rest of the way because we trust them to be at least a .500 team from now to the end of the year and if that comes to pass, there are outstanding profits forthcoming.
any interest in the Duke/Unc Under 161 tonight? I don't believe Duke wants to get into a track meet tonight. They are pretty bad in transition defense and like you said they will need to focus on the defensive glass tonight in order to limit Unc's 'best offense'. I feel like that leads to all 5 duke players focusing on the boards and less about getting up and down the court. Thoughts?
That foundation makes a lot of sense, and Duke can work the shot clock literally as well as any team in the nation, with Allen/Kennard bringing a tandem that can take the ball with a few seconds left and still make something good happen. Where you have to hold your breath is on the game being close - these two both scramble it up real well, and you could run into 10+ points being scored in the final minute if that is the case. Someone thinking Under might want to opt for First Half Under 77, which takes that late scramble out of play.
Cleveland at Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -10.5
Trow away game for the Cavaliers tonight as word is that LeBron is sitting out and Love and Irving may join him. With Shumpert already out because of injury the Cavs will be really short handed tonight. Cleveland has played four games this season when the line said it was the lesser team. In those games the Cavs lost at Memphis by 8, beat Golden State by 1, lost at Detroit by 16 and lost at Golden State by 35. Keep in mind the two games playing shorthanded Cleveland lost by a combined 24 points. After winning three road games against conference opponents we wouldn't be surprised if none of the big three play tonight.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks +2.5
Utah is feeling pretty good about themselves. Last night's blowout win at New Orleans was their fourth straight win and the Jazz are 33-19 on the season. But now they're a tad overvalued, in our opinion. Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back nights and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams playing less than .400 basketball on the season. Dallas still doesn't have Deron Williams, but they're growing used to that fact. In the meantime, Harrison Barnes is having a season. Barnes combined with Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews, to score 74 points in their most recent game, a 114-113 loss to Portland. Dallas covered, which means they're now on a 7-0 ATS run at home. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball.
CELTICS AT BLAZERS
PLAY: CELTICS +1.5
Pretty good situational spot for the Celtics. Boston has been a good bounce back team for the most part. I?ll look for them to display some intensity here after a very poor second half at Sacramento, against a Kings team that was shorthanded.
Portland managed to get a win last time out, but the Blazers have been just plain lousy when it comes to stringing anything positive together. They?re only 8-14 playing off a win, and even worse than that against the number.
Boston isn?t elite, but they?re certainly decent, and I like backing okay teams off a bad performance, particularly when matched up against an opponent they can handle. No prob with the betting line as the Blazers are favored. I?ll take the Celtics in this spot.
76ers +5?
This is a back to spot for the Sixers but I look for them to bring a little "extra" for this one as they seek to avenge an early December loss to the Magic in Philly. The 76'ers are a stellar 17-6 ATS this season when they are playing with home loss revenge. The Sixers enter this one on a 5-game losing streak but they're catching a handful of points against an Orlando team that continues to have its own issues as well. The Magic have now lost 14 of their last 18 games and they got blown out by 24 points at Houston Tuesday. Orlando has been favored 11 times this season and they have only covered 3 of the 11 games! The Magic also have just 8 covers in 25 home games this season. The Sixers are on a fantastic 15-6 ATS run after covering as a large home dog to the Spurs last night. This certainly is the "ugliest looking" match-up on the board tonight but sometimes that is where the best value is found and, after an early line move toward the Magic in this one, I love the underdog value with the Sixers catching a few too many points here.
09:00 PM CBB [744] UTEP +245
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [778] Furman +1-115
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [783] Belmont -3-150 (B+2)
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [786] Wofford -4.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [8] Columbus Blue Jackets -223
07:05 PM NHL [10] Boston Bruins -125
07:35 PM NHL [17] Los Angeles Kings +100
1 unit bet pays 177 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
ESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo - VCU allowed a go-ahead 3-pt FG with 0.4 seconds left in each of its last 2 games. VCU won both games.
North Carolina +2?
Well coach ?K? is back, the Blue Devils (18-5) are at home and the national press in talking Duke. Granted this is same floor revenge for Duke who lost here last March 76-72 to UNC (21-4), but the Heels have won their last 9-of-10 SU (5-5 ATS) and they are the underdog. The dog in the series is 6-2 ATS with the road unit 19-7 ATS. Fundamental advantages bring a young Duke team looking to drive higher in the polls with an aggressive defense holding the opposition to 67.9 points per game. Critical too, here is their foul shooting which has been super last five games @ 78.4%. That?s an important edge on your home floor in a rivalry game, but UNC is the better rebounding team. In fact, they are #1 in the nation in rebounding their own shots @ 42.8%. If forward Pinson is back for the Tar Heels the bench will solidify a nice addition. With all the line pressure, coach ?K? in the building you can be assured the public will be pushing the number higher. So, from the contrarian standpoint, we must take the points and back UNCs incredible 5-1 ATS recent mark at Duke.
Temple +7.5
The Mustangs have gone down in defeat only once over the last 2+ months. That loss just so happened to be incurred by the opponent up next on the docket in the form of the Cincinnati Bearcats. SMU dropped a tough 66-64 decision at Cincy back on January 12, and there?s no doubt Ben Moore and company will be looking forward to returning home to seek revenge for that defeat this Sunday. That could pose a major issue for those looking to lay the points with SMU possibly overlooking Temple for bigger game over the weekend.
The Owls have struggled against the Ponies of late in dropping four of the L/5 meetings, but the two times they hosted this rivalry saw them win outright 89-80 as 6-point underdogs and fall 60-55 as 3-point underdogs. Seriously though, if you plan on taking the points with the home team, know full well SMU is the much better of these two teams. Ojeyele and his mates toyed with Temple in the first go round bolting out to a 40-22 halftime lead then cruised to the 79-65 win and cover as 11.5 point favorites. They outboarded the Owls 40-22 and shot 48% overall. The only two factors that could prevent another SMU romp is Temple being much better at home, and the Mustangs looking past it for Sunday?s tilt with the Bearcats. I like to press my luck in these types of spots, so I?ll take the points and hope Temple shows up like it did versus Memphis and Cincinnati.
Oregon @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA -4.5
Oregon sits atop the Pac-12 after a statement win over fifth-ranked Arizona on Saturday. Tyler Dorsey hit six 3-pointers and scored 23 points to lead the Ducks to an 85-58 drubbing of the Wildcats setting up a Thursday night showdown with No. 11 UCLA. Oregon has an 89-87 victory over the Bruins under its belt already and has lost just once in its last 20 games.
UCLA (21-3, 8-3) is coming off of back-to-back wins over Washington and Washington State. The Bruins handled both teams easily using their frantic style of play to pound both teams into submission. UCLA is second in the nation in scoring averaging 92.9 points per game. When head coach Steve Alford?s Bruins get to 90, they are tough to beat. In all three of the Bruins losses, they failed to hit the 90-point mark.
UCLA is led by their superstar freshmen, T.J. Leaf and Lonzo Ball. Leaf is the team?s leading scorer averaging 17.1 ppg. He is also UCLA?s leading rebounder (8.9 rpg). Ball scores 15.1 points and leads the team with 7.8 assists per game. Alford?s son, Bryce, averages 16.4 points and is another of the six Bruins that averages in double figures. If
If there is a team in the Pac-12 that can keep up with UCLA, it is Oregon. The Ducks are athletic, can run, and they play great defense. The Ducks are a Top 25 defensive team (23rd in the nation, 63.5 ppg). Dillon Brooks (14.4 ppg) is as good as any in the conference and 6-10 Chris Boucher (12.4 ppg) is a defensive force averaging nearly seven rebounds and three blocked shots per game.
Florida Atlantic -7
Florida Atlantic is putting things together and will be a tough draw in Conference USA Tournament for somebody. The Owls have reeled off three straight Conference wins, all on the road. They have seven players averaging between ( 7-10 ) points per game and have depth that can wear teams down. Meanwhile, North Texas has dropped 11 straight games and is winless, ( 0-8 ) on the road this season. They have not been closer than 7 points in any of their five road losses inside Conference play. I expect Coach Mike Curry to have his Owls ready to keep momentum rolling and pull within a game of .500 in CUSA. I like FAU by double digits.
Wofford -4.5
Wofford is peaking right now, winning 3 in a row and 6 of last 8 games. Fletcher Magee & Eric Garcia combine 32 points per game and have been instrumental in the Terriers rise. One of the blemishes inside the Southern Conference was a buzzer beater at Samford in overtime last month. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs of Samford start a 3-game road stretch against the 3 of the best teams in the Conference. Furman & Chattanooga, who battle each other tonight at Furman are both on deck for Samford. The Terriers will beat you when they are hitting their three's as they have had several games with 13 or more three's in a contest. The only game they did that and lost was the OT loss at Samford. Look for Wofford to get rolling sometime in the first half with back-to-back triples and open things up. I expect Wofford to wear down the Bulldogs and get the home win between 8-16 points.
N. Kentucky -4
Northern Kentucky held a 10 point lead 42-32 at halftime up in Green Bay last month. That lead ballooned to 15 points, 49-34 a few minutes into the second half. Then the Norse hit a wall and the the basket shrunk up and seemed to completely disappear. Give credit to Green Bay for coming back and getting the home win but it was a meltdown by NKU that fueled the come back. Northern Kentucky has won 3 of their last 4 games including a road win at Wright State in their last contest. The game should be close for awhile but I expect NKU to pull away down the stretch
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Pick: Under
Wisconsin (20-3) is a powerhouse defensive teams under Greg Gard, on 16-1 SU run. They are off a 65-50 win against Indiana. #1 in the Big 10 in scoring defense (59.8 ), #5 in field goal defense (40%). Wisconsin is 22-8 under the total on the road and 19-8 under away against a team with a winning home record. Nebraska is #13 in the Big 10 in scoring (71 pg), relying too much on 6-4 senior G Tai Webster (18 ppg) to carry the load. Sophomore guard Glynn Watson (14 ppg) is in a shooting slump, 0-4 vs Iowa, and they lost 6-7 sophomore Ed Morrow (10 p, 7 rpg) to a foot injury. Nebraska is 8-2-1 under the total as a home dog of +7 to +12.5.
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Pick: Wisconsin -8
The Wisconsin Badgers seem to not be considered a top-flight program, or among the elite in college basketball. But this program has quietly put together four seasons of 30+ wins in their last 10, and at 20-3 this year they will challenge to make that five. One of the things that makes this team special is their play on the defensive end of the floor. In their last 378 games, the Badgers have allowed just 58.2 points per game. That poises them to win and cover a lot of games. When the Badgers hold opponents to that 10 year average or less, they are 114-52-2 ATS. They have held 15 opponents to 65 or fewer points this season, a mark that has earned them a 155-100-5 ATS mark over the last 10 years. I think they get that done tonight, which stacks the odds substantially in their favor.
James Madison vs. NC-Wilmington
Play: NC-Wilmington -14?
It's a huge mismatch as UNC Wilmington hosts James Madison. The Dukes have lost five of their last six including a home contest with these same Seahawks losing 87-76 in a game where both teams shot over 50% from the field. JMU has won just one conference road game at Hofstra, but they don't have the offense to keep up especially now that Yohanny Dalembert is out for the season. The Seahawks are crushing people at home beating Delaware by 28, William and Mary by 24 and Elon by 16. Teams have tried to slow them down at home and not many has had success outside of Charleston. I think the Seahawks can name their score in an easy win.
Belmont (-4.5) over Jacksonville State
I will go with the Bruins in this one. This team is on fire. Belmont has won 13 straight games and they are on a 7-1 ATS run in their last eight games. The Bruins are dominating the OVC. They are on the road for this game, but that has not been a problem at all. They have won seven straight road games. Last week they went to rival Murray State and won by 12 points in a game that was never close. They also beat Tennessee State, another OVC competitor, by 17 points on the road on Jan. 28. Belmont has won seven straight games by at least 10 points, and I expect them to do the same thing here. Belmont already beat Jacksonville State by 17 points once this year, and JSU is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. The Gamecocks are just 3-3 SU in their six league home games. They don't have a great home-court advantage, and I don't think they will have enough to get the job done here. Take Belmont.
Don't sleep on the Bruins!
Belmont hits Jacksonville State riding a season-high 13 game winning streak, and better still, the Bruins have recorded against the spread wins in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8.
Included in that stretch is a January 19th home win and cover over Jax State, 77-60. That "W" put the series winning streak at 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall for the Bruins.
Jacksonville State is just 1-4 against the spread in their lined home games this season, and just 1-8 overall their last 9 lined home dates.
Lay the small road wood tonight with Belmont.
Cleveland St. vs. Valparaiso
Pick: Cleveland St.
Cleveland State is having a tough season, but it's been more "unlucky" than "bad." The Vikings are just 7-17 straight up, but seven of those losses have been five points or less. The vast majority of the close defeats have come in Horizon League play. Case in point; they just fell by two at home to Oakland on Saturday (still covered as 4-pt dogs). Three of the team's last four losses have now been by three points or less (six points total!).
At the opposite end of the "luck" spectrum is where Valpo resides. According to KenPom, the Crusaders have been one of the 10 luckiest teams in America this season. Many of their close wins came in the non-conference portion of the schedule, however. They'd been rolling in Horizon League play; that was until running into Green Bay on Saturday. On the road, Valpo was blown out 86-69 as 5.5-pt favorites.
That loss will undoubtedly have Valparaiso motivated here, but Cleveland State comes in looking for revenge. So the underdog won't be lacking for motivation either. Last month, Valpo won as 5.5-pt chalk in downtown Cleveland, 78-67. Considering the Crusaders went just 2 for 11 from three-point range in that game, it was clearly a missed opportunity for CSU. Valpo is now 6-0 SU vs. CSU the L3 seasons, covering all but once, but the Vikings have shown they can hang tough in games. I don't think the underdog wins outright here, but they keep it close.
DREXEL +4? over William & Mary
For The Tribe of William & Mary, it really has been a tale of two seasons. At home, W&M remains unblemished by sporting a sparkling 11-0 record in Williamsburg. In addition, W&M own some rather impressive wins on their own court, as they were the first CAA team to hand the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks a loss. However, on the road, they seem quite mortal, as their 2-10 record away from Williamsburg will attest to. The books have been keen on noticing this trend because every time they have traveled away from their cozy confines, this outfit is being offered with points. Taking back points when traveling to Duke or Louisville is to be expected but this Tribe team has been offered points on the road a few times and have failed to deliver over and over again. Case study #1 ? Northeastern. The Tribe got whacked by the Huskies when they traveled to Northeastern as a 2?-point pup on New Year?s Eve. Northeastern would smash W&M by a margin of 20 points. Case study #2 - W&M would defeat Elon University at home by a trey on January 5th. In their follow-up 16 days later at Elon U, the Tribe would falter and be beaten by nine points. Case study #3 - Hampton. W&M lost to Hampton by 10 points, which further illustrates the woes this team suffers most of the time when it is traveling. Case study #4 ? Towson. Most recently, the Tribe was taking back points on the road against a weak Towson team and they lost again. Now, for the first time this year, W&M is spotting points on the road in a position that has already proven to be a fatal chink in its armor.
The Dragons of Drexel are a hard sell, as they are currently riding a four-game losing streak while posting a 2-8 record overall in their last 10. In addition, Drexel lost to this very William & Mary team in Williamsburg on January 30th by 27 points. Now the market only sees 1/5 of that number as the asking price and will be enticed into playing the wrong side. Drexel is a 4-5 basketball team on their own court this season and if there was ever a situation that could prime them to get off the snide, this would be it. That said, this is not about backing the Dragoons. It?s about playing value and in that regard, the Tribe cannot and should not be spotting road points to anyone within their division. Take the points.
Furman Pk
Furman gets a shot a revenge here for their worst loss of the season at T-Chat earlier this season. T-Chat spent the night on the FT line, and what's interesting is that they were out-rebounded on the offensive glass by Furman, and turned the ball over a few more times. Chattanooga has a really bad loss at home to VMI, and although they've won on the road, not necessarily in convincing fashion. Furman just won three straight conference road games, and at home HAD been blowing people out. I don't expect they'll blow T-Chat out - it'd be nice - but I do expect them to win. They ARE in first place in the Conference and have played a tougher conference SOS than T-Chat. They have a better defense and a more efficient offense. That's all I got.
N. COLORADO +108 over Idaho
Cowan Spectrum was thumping Saturday night in Moscow, as the Vandals took down Sacramento State in a game that was much closer than the 81-67 score would indicate. Idaho got off to an incredibly hot start by going up by as many as 19 in the first half but once they got that big lead, they milked it for the rest of the game. The Vandals have won six of their last seven so we can understand how they might be an appealing choice as just a -1? point favorite. A closer look at the schedule shows us this game tonight in Northern Colorado may be a big letdown spot after that emotional home win Saturday night. Next up for Idaho is a huge rivalry game with North Dakota. That's a game they must win if they want to stay in contention for a Big Sky title and an at-large bid. This pit stop in Greeley, Colorado could be easily overlooked.
Northern Colorado is coming off a hard fought overtime loss at North Dakota. Even though they lost by 10, the score was misleading. The Bears did not trail in the second half until there was just nine seconds left and the Hawks were able to force overtime. UND rode out a 9-0 run in OT to seal the deal. While the result was surely disappointing, the Bears have to be feeling good about hanging with one of the top-3 teams in the Big Sky Conference. There's no shame in losing to the Fighting Hawks in Grand Forks. The Bears are coming off three straight road games so this is their first game in Greeley since January 21st. Bank of Colorado arena should be jumping. Northern Colorado is 8-14 and has won just one of their last seven games, so how can they be getting less than a basket at home to a team as hot at the Vandals? Toss in the fact that Idaho is 3-0 against the Bears since returning to the Big Sky and we see a situation that is enticing the market into making what will likely be a losing wager. This trip to Northern Colorado is more of an inconvenience for the Vandals and the odds makers know it. The dog outright gets this call. .
Santa Clara vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -5?
The San Francisco Dons have been a money-making machine in West Coast Conference action. They are 17-8 SU and 13-8 ATS on the season. They may be the third-best team in the WCC behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's, and they have been lighting it up of late.
Indeed, the Dons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their only non-cover came at St. Mary's in a game in which they were tied at halftime with the Gaels before getting blown out in the second half. They have actually won six of their last seven games straight up with all six victories coming by double-digits.
I like this spot for San Francisco, which will be out for revenge from a 58-72 road loss at Santa Clara in their first meeting this season on December 31st. And Santa Clara just played Gonzaga last time out, so it will be hard for them to get motivated to play the Dons here, especially having already beaten them once this season.
The Dons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. The Dons are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: Loyola-Marymount +18
I like the value here with the Lions at home against the No. 1 ranked team in the country. This is the biggest game of the season for Loyola-Marymount and I expect an all out effort here at home against the Bulldogs. On the flip side of this, this is a bad spot for Gonzaga, who has what most are calling their biggest threat left on the schedule on deck in two days at St. Mary's.
Given that the Bulldogs already beat the Lions by 38 at home, they will have a hard time taking this game seriously. Keep in mind that Loyola was only a 19.5-point dog at Gonzaga. Bad teams are often not competitive on the road, but can keep games surprisingly close at home and the Lions have done that this season. They only lost by 12 at home to St Mary's, but just 5 to BYU and only 3 to UConn in non-conference play. You also have to realize the books have inflated this line not only causes Gonzaga is No. 1, but they know the public will want nothing to do with the Lions.
Oregon +4 over UCLA
The Bruins are the #9 team in the country thanks in large part to their 92.9 points per game. UCLA thrives on its transition game to rack up points. The only downside to that style of play is that it leaves them vulnerable to the opposition's attack. This has been the Bruins downfall. They can't play defense. UCLA was flying high after ripping off 13 wins to start the season but then dropped two straight conference games to Arizona and USC. UCLA spent most of the first month of the season pounding on second tier West Coast schools like Pacific, Northridge, San Diego and Long Beach State. When we take a closer look to that hot start to the season, it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds. For a top-10 team, the Bruins have only played the 87th ranked schedule in the country and we can't help but wonder if scheduling cupcakes earlier in the year has done them a disservice. Tonight UCLA will face one of the stingiest defenses in the Pac-12 when the Oregon Ducks come to Pauley Pavilion.
The #6 ranked Ducks are on a roll after two straight wins including a huge 85-58 victory over Arizona last Saturday. The Ducks shot an impressive 62.5 percent from the field but they've got it done on both ends of the court all season. Oregon has been downright stingy by allowing just 63.5 points per game. That's good for #2 in the conference right behind Cal's 63.1. Unlike the Bruins, the Ducks bring a balanced attack to this game. The UCLA Bruins have only been outscored in transition one time this season. That was against these Ducks in a game played up in Eugene back in December. The Ducks are in better form and can actually play defense so we'll scoop up these generous points in a heartbeat because that?s where all the value lies. When you play ranked teams at home in popular markets, you will pay a premium to do so and that is certainly in play here.
BYU vs. Pepperdine
Play: BYU -9
The Cougars take on Pepperdine Thursday and the visitors minus the points has value. BYU gets overlooked because of what Gonzales and St Mary's do in the conference, but this team is extremely talented.
BYU has the advantage here both offensively in the paint and defensively as far as speed goes. They should be able to control the pace of this one and really make things uncomfortable for Pepperdine.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. Waves are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games overall and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
St. Louis vs. Toronto
Play: St. Louis +120
I delivered a free play winner last week with this same matchup as the St. Louis Blues trounced the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1. It was the Blues' first game after the firing of head coach Ken Hitchcock with Mike Yeo taking over behind the bench. The same two teams meet tonight in Toronto and even though it is a revenge situation for the Leafs, the Blues are playing too well and getting too good of a price tag here to pass up. St. Louis is 3-1 since the coaching change and they have registered extremely impressive back-to-back shutouts on the road against Philadelphia and Ottawa by a combined score of 8-0. The goaltending from Jake Allen which had been shaky for much of the season has been better of late and the team is buying into being much more assertive, especially paying more attention to detail defensively in their own zone. Toronto has had problems defensively and keeping the puck out of their own net for several games now and that could be a problem tonight. St. Louis is 5-2 in the last seven meetings against Toronto and at the current +120 price, there is still value on this morphing Blues team playing with renewed energy and confidence.
Los Angeles -1? +297 over FLORIDA
We?re going to split this wager into two parts. We?re playing the Kings at a pick-em for 1 unit and we?re playing the Kings -1? +297 for 1 unit to make up our tradition 2 unit wager. Therefore, our wagers are as follows:
L.A. -1? +297 (Risking 1 unit)
L.A. -102 (Risking 1.02 units to win 1).
Los Angeles has been shutout in back-to-back games and it has gone three straight games without a goal in regulation time. The Kings last five-on-five goal was on February 1 but we?re not concerned in the least. Results influence the market while actual performances do not and in that regard, there is not a team in the NHL that is coming close to matching the Kings? possession and defensive numbers right now. L.A. has held its last four opponents to 22, 17, 20 and 21 shots on net. In their last two losses to Washington and Tampa Bay respectively, the Kings held a significant shots on net edge of 64-41. Washington scored five goals on 20 shots on net and Tampa scored five goals on 21 shots while the Kings scored zero goals on 64 shots. That is simply a case of puck luck working against the Kings but their high quality scoring chances have been significantly higher than every team they have played since the break. What most are going to read or hear about is a Kings? slump right now but that?s laughable because they?re playing better now than they have in a long time without the results.
We like the Panthers and trust they are going to be a tough out for the remainder of the year and a definite threat to make the playoffs. However, the fade is once again on against teams? coming off their bye week. That bye week is mandatory for every team and includes no practices. It?s a week vacation away from hockey. Teams? coming off the bye this year are 1-4 straight up with the only team not suffering a loss being the Maple Leafs but Toronto was outshot 36-24. Teams? coming off the break have proven to be flat and usually need a game to get back into the swing of things. A hungry Los Angeles squad that is playing at a high level is likely going to prove to be too much for the a Panthers? bunch that is not only coming off the bye but that has played just three games (because of All-Star break) since Jan 23.
Nashville +113 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. We were down on the Preds for quite some time earlier this year but their play lately has us taking a different position. Nashville?s intensity level is finally where it needs to be. The Preds are playing with the same heart and determination the past month that they have displayed for years and that made them such a tough out. Perhaps P.K Subban being back on the ice and his infectious enthusiasm has something to do with it. Whatever the case, the Preds are playing their best hockey of the year. Nashville has won nine of its past 13 games. Completely healthy and in great form, the Preds bring their great possession numbers with them and now get a rare opportunity to play at Madison Square Gardens against a weak possession team.
The Rangers have won three straight. Frankly, we don?t know how they win one straight. Kevin Klein and Dan Girardi getting top-4 minutes on defense is remarkable. You will not find two worse d-men getting top-4 minutes in the entire league and might have to go back 50 years to find two d-men on the same team less competent than that pair. The Rangers have allowed more high scoring chances against than 28 of the 30 NHL teams. They have spent more time in their own end than 26 of the 30 teams. The media or standings will suggest that the Rangers are Stanley Cup hopefuls and we?re suggesting that they are a first-round exit waiting to happen. We?ll see what happens at the trade deadline, as New York is in position to deal one of their quality forwards for a quality defenseman. Should they fail to make a deal, the Rags will be gone in round one. In their last game against Anaheim, the Rags played 80% of it in their own end and won 4-1. New York has drawn just one lousy penalty three times in their last four games because they are always in their own end and not creating offensively. The Preds figure to have a large possession advantage here. Defensively, mismatches this big are rare occurrences and it doesn?t favor the host. The Rangers scare us for sure because of their depth up front but the entire picture reveals a weak team that plays far too many minutes in their own to be winning at the pace that they are.
ARIZONA +136 over Montreal
OT included. We just hope we?re not too late to this party but have you seen the Canadiens play lately? Montreal has lost four straight and just got shutout by Colorado, 4-0. Not scoring on the Avs is no easy feat and it?s worth noting that Tyson Barrie missed that game for Colorado. Montreal has scored one goal or less in seven of its past 13 games. They have scored two or less in four straight but it?s not the lack of goals that are concerning because puck luck plays a role, it?s the lack of chances and intensity. Montreal has mustered a mere 27, 22, 22, 16, 22 and 20 shots on goal in six of its last seven games. They rank dead last in the NHL in scoring chances over the past month. Carey Price is laboring too. When Price went down last year, the Canadiens were one of the worst teams in the NHL. After a hot start again this year, Montreal is again proving to be one of the easiest teams to play against only right now, Price isn?t bailing them out every game. With this being the year of the fired coaches, Montreal?s might be next, as this team is not responding to Michel Therrien for the second year in a row.
By contrast, Arizona is playing at a high level after a brutal 3? months. The Coyotes have won four of their last six games. Their two losses over that span came against Chicago and Los Angeles, both by one goal and we?re here to tell you that they were all over the Blackhawks. The Coyotes are healthy with Max Domi back. Recent call-ups Brendan Perlini and Lawson Crouse has given the ?Yotes an energy boost. That pair has not only energized the team but both are high draft picks with great talent. Throw in a rock solid defense that can move the puck and the Coyotes are primed to ruin some playoff hopes down the stretch. The best news is that Arizona is greatly undervalued because pf their horrible record. We are making a commitment to them the rest of the way because we trust them to be at least a .500 team from now to the end of the year and if that comes to pass, there are outstanding profits forthcoming.
any interest in the Duke/Unc Under 161 tonight? I don't believe Duke wants to get into a track meet tonight. They are pretty bad in transition defense and like you said they will need to focus on the defensive glass tonight in order to limit Unc's 'best offense'. I feel like that leads to all 5 duke players focusing on the boards and less about getting up and down the court. Thoughts?
That foundation makes a lot of sense, and Duke can work the shot clock literally as well as any team in the nation, with Allen/Kennard bringing a tandem that can take the ball with a few seconds left and still make something good happen. Where you have to hold your breath is on the game being close - these two both scramble it up real well, and you could run into 10+ points being scored in the final minute if that is the case. Someone thinking Under might want to opt for First Half Under 77, which takes that late scramble out of play.
Cleveland at Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -10.5
Trow away game for the Cavaliers tonight as word is that LeBron is sitting out and Love and Irving may join him. With Shumpert already out because of injury the Cavs will be really short handed tonight. Cleveland has played four games this season when the line said it was the lesser team. In those games the Cavs lost at Memphis by 8, beat Golden State by 1, lost at Detroit by 16 and lost at Golden State by 35. Keep in mind the two games playing shorthanded Cleveland lost by a combined 24 points. After winning three road games against conference opponents we wouldn't be surprised if none of the big three play tonight.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks +2.5
Utah is feeling pretty good about themselves. Last night's blowout win at New Orleans was their fourth straight win and the Jazz are 33-19 on the season. But now they're a tad overvalued, in our opinion. Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back nights and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams playing less than .400 basketball on the season. Dallas still doesn't have Deron Williams, but they're growing used to that fact. In the meantime, Harrison Barnes is having a season. Barnes combined with Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews, to score 74 points in their most recent game, a 114-113 loss to Portland. Dallas covered, which means they're now on a 7-0 ATS run at home. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball.
CELTICS AT BLAZERS
PLAY: CELTICS +1.5
Pretty good situational spot for the Celtics. Boston has been a good bounce back team for the most part. I?ll look for them to display some intensity here after a very poor second half at Sacramento, against a Kings team that was shorthanded.
Portland managed to get a win last time out, but the Blazers have been just plain lousy when it comes to stringing anything positive together. They?re only 8-14 playing off a win, and even worse than that against the number.
Boston isn?t elite, but they?re certainly decent, and I like backing okay teams off a bad performance, particularly when matched up against an opponent they can handle. No prob with the betting line as the Blazers are favored. I?ll take the Celtics in this spot.
76ers +5?
This is a back to spot for the Sixers but I look for them to bring a little "extra" for this one as they seek to avenge an early December loss to the Magic in Philly. The 76'ers are a stellar 17-6 ATS this season when they are playing with home loss revenge. The Sixers enter this one on a 5-game losing streak but they're catching a handful of points against an Orlando team that continues to have its own issues as well. The Magic have now lost 14 of their last 18 games and they got blown out by 24 points at Houston Tuesday. Orlando has been favored 11 times this season and they have only covered 3 of the 11 games! The Magic also have just 8 covers in 25 home games this season. The Sixers are on a fantastic 15-6 ATS run after covering as a large home dog to the Spurs last night. This certainly is the "ugliest looking" match-up on the board tonight but sometimes that is where the best value is found and, after an early line move toward the Magic in this one, I love the underdog value with the Sixers catching a few too many points here.
