07:10 PM TOTAL u9-120 (Washington Nationals vrs Mets) (Gonzalez/Gsellman)
08:40 PM Colorado Rockies -1.5 +100 ( M Moore - L / J Hoffman - R )
10:05 PM New York Yankees -1.5 +125 ( J Montgomery - L / S Gray - R )
10:05 PM Kansas City Royals +103 ( ACTION /R Nolasco - R )
07:05 PM Boston Red Sox -1.5 -151 ( C Sale - L / N Pivetta - R )
07:00 PM TOTAL o165-110 (Atlanta Dream vrs Indiana Fever)
10:30 PM San Antonio Stars +14-105
1 unit bet pays 102 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Play: Washington -112
Washington got spanked by Atlanta Wednesday who put up 13 runs on 16 hits while the Mets put up nine runs on 14 hits on Chicago winning 9-4. These two teams are one and two in the NL East, but having different types of years as the Nationals are 39-26 in first while the Mets are 30-34 in second place a difference of 8.5 games. Washington is 21-12 on the road while the Mets are 16-20 at home. Washington is sending Gio Gonzalez to the mound who is off to a great start with a 5-1 record with a 2.91 ERA with four of those wins coming on the road. Gio Gonzalez is 1-0 against the Mets this year with a win in New York allowing a run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings. In his career Gonzalez is 12-5 in 21 starts and 2.96 ERA. At Citi Field Gonzalez has made 14 starts and has a 1.62 ERA with a 9-1 record. The Mets are going with Steven Matz who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA after a seven inning outing allowing just a single run on five hits to the Braves in his first start of the season. Matz has had just two starts against the Nationals and is 1-1 with an ERA of 1.80. Look for a great pitchers duel between these two lefties with runs to be at a a premium and with the game tied at one the Mets pen will give up a pair of runs in the 7th as Gonzalez picks up another win over the Mets 3-1.
Jeff Hoffman's season (25.2 inn) marks call it SIERA 2.8 - FIP 2.1 - XFIP 3.2 with a K%/BB% of 33%/3.2% over 25.2 Innings. 19 of those innings have come on the road. In those 6.2 innings at home his marks call it FIP 4.9 - XFIP 3.7 with a K%/BB% of 34%/6.9%. A low WHIP of 1.35 at home helps in his one home start.
The conundrum for backing Hoffman and home is that his road FIP of 1.7 (19 in) is much better than his home FIP of 4.9 (6 in). Not a completely isolated event with a Rockie starter.
A deeper dive into the home start agaisnt the Dodgers reveals that when the Dodgers came to visit on May 11, they were among the top 10 teams in batting. Today the Giants, # 28 out of 30 teams in batting visit Coors Field and Hoffman. Hoffman has had 3 subsequent starts giving up 1 ER in each, but more importantly, seeing his innings pitched increase by 6.3% over those starts. He is getting deeper into games.
The Giants send Matt Moore to the hill where the Starting 4 Batters for the Rockies show these numbers.
PA BA OPS HR
Charlie Blackmon 11 .273 1.000 1
DJ LeMahieu 13 .455 1.007 0
Nolan Arenado 15 .500 1.462 1
Mark Reynolds 18 .278 .722 1
Add to this that both CarGo and Story have both homered off Moore and an opportunity opens up for Colorado Ml -155 (1.2 Unit) and Colorado RL +130 (1/2 Unit)
Hi xxxxx,
Very sound analysis, I'm a stat man, so I love it that you use of those metrics.
I was ready to use COL and on of my two "MLB Summer Clasic Contest" picks today. Hoffman's home/road discrepancy is certainly worth oting. However, Firts, it's a very small sample size (1 start) against a vert good team (LAD) although apparently not today. Second, that start v LA wasn't awful (6 hits, 1 HR and 3 runs in 5.1 innings, with 8 Ks and 2 BBs. Stats are great but with such a small sample size, one good start tonight and they could look radically different tomorrow.
Moore's home-road splits have been even more drastic this season. He owns a 1.17 WHIP, a 3.02 ERA and a .229 BAA at AT&T Park compared to a 1.91 WHIP, a 7.94 ERA, and a .338 BAA in his six road starts. Even his K/BB ratio is 33/23 at home v 25/17 on the road.
As you also noted, Hoffman's facing SF, not LA, and offensively SF is awfu: Offensive runs above average - rank #30; Weighted runs created plus - rank #30; Weighted on-base average - rank #30.
COL may not be an offensive dynamo this season, even at Coors, but they are clearly bette than this SF team.
Another reason i kind of still like COL is a solid bullpen. That's been the surprising key to this Rockies team.
Jordan Montgomery ? 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Last six starts from Monty: 9.00 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.34 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 4.04 xFIP (9.1% HR/FB), 26.7% hard contact, 11.8% whiff rate overall. Ummmm why is he still not owned everywhere?
Robert Gsellman ? 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Last three Gsellman starts: 1.42 ERA, 7.11 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 22.8% soft contact, 54.5% grounders. That?s great! Against the Brewers, Pirates, and Braves while boasting a 4.24 SIERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.08 FIP. That?s bad! I?m not sold that Gsellman has returned to what we were hoping he would be in the pre-season, and he gets a tough matchup now against the Nationals followed by the Dodgers. Makes it easy to resist adding him back to the squad.
Jeff Hoffman ? 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Jeez, will this ever end? Three of his four starts have been of just 1 ER, and he?s walked jsut three batters with 34 Ks in his 27.0 innings ? with a 6.75 IPS! This is crazy, but to be fair, his worst start was 3 ER in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers, with his last three starts coming against the Phils, Padres, and Cubs (21st in woBA!), all outside of Coors. Just sayin?. Now the question remains what kind of security Hoffman has in the rotation, but if he were to stick around, this Spice Girl would get the Giants and I?d start him regardless of Coors or not.
Royals at Angels
Pick: Over
The Kansas City bats have come alive, on a 4-0 run scoring 35 runs. The pitching staff is #19 in ERA and they have to go with a reliever in 25-year old Matt Strahm (4.50 ERA), his first start of the season. He has walked 18 batters in 22 innings. The L.A. Angels are 23-8-2 over the total at home against a team with a losing record. The Angels go with 34-year old Rick Nolasco (2-7, 4.81 ERA), who has a 5.81 ERA at home. The team has lost his last 8 starts.
Thursday's comp play goes on the Yankees and the Athletics to land Under the posted total.
Rookie Jordan Montgomery has been impressive in manager Joe Girardi's rotation, as the southpaw has come on strong with a 1.56 ERA over his last 3 turns through the rotation.
He has allowed just 4 earned runs to cross in his last 4 starts, and the Under is 5-1 for his last 6 starts.
Sonny Gray does not appear to be all the way back from a string of injuries, and does sport an ERA of 6 over his last 3 assignments, but he did strike out 10 in his last start against Tampa Bay.
Oakland has been playing them high of late - 6-0-1 Over their last 7 games - but 6 of the last 10 in this series have landed Under the total.
I will side with the pitching to keep the runs off the scoreboard in the series opener.
Thursday comp play on Boston -1 1/2 runs over Philadelphia.
Nothing like playing the Phillies to help you make up some ground in the standings!
After a pair of extra-inning walk-off wins at Fenway Park on Monday and Tuesday, the Red Sox went down to Philly and hammered the Fightin's, 7-3 last night.
Tonight look for them to pull off the 4-game sweep, and do it by another comfortable margin with southpaw Chris Sale on the mound.
The BoSox have won 7 straight interleague games versus the Phillies, and 9 of the past 10 dating back to 2013. 7 of those 9 wins have come by 2 runs or better.
Sale's ERA is a little large at 5.50 for his last 3 starts, but he is 3-0 in those starts, and stands at 8-2 for the year with his team 10-3 when he trots to the mound.
Nick Pivetta owns just one win in his short time up this year, as he stands at 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. Philadelphia is just 1-5 when he starts this year.
I smell a blowout.
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Red Sox -1?
The Boston Red Sox travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies on Thursday night. Boston is 37-28 SU overall this year while Philadelphia comes in with a 21-43 SU overall record on the season. Chris Sale is 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA overall this year, 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA on the road this season and 3-0 his last 3 starts. Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA at home this season. Boston is 11-3 in inter-league play this year where they are allowing only 4 runs per game. Philadelphia is 0-7 last 7 games overall where they are scoring only 2.7 runs per game. Philadelphia is allowing 5.7 runs per game at home this year, 5.5 runs per game at night this season and 7.5 runs per game in inter-league play this year. Boston is 8-1 overall vs Philadelphia the past 3 years. Philadelphia is 0-8 in inter-league play this year. Philadelphia is 10-29 this year when playing at night. Philadelphia is 11-32 this year after a loss. We'll recommend a small play on Boston on the Run line tonight!
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +220
The Phillies and Red Sox play the last game of their home and home series tonight in Philadelphia and the Phillies have lost all 3 so far. We are going to take a flyer on the HUGE underdog Phillies tonight as we are getting plus 220 at the time of this writing. The starting pitchers tonight are for the Red Sox LH Chris Sale (8-2, 2.97 ERA) and he will face the Phillies Nick Pivetta (1-3, 5.52 ERA) Sale has been great for the Red Sox this year but he has been a little off in his last 3 starts sporting a 5.50 ERA with a WHIP of 1.556. Last year when Sale visited Citizens Bank Park he was hit around for 6 runs in 4 innings. As for Pivetta he has been basically terrible so far but he is young and most of those starts were on the road. He is getting his second home start today and we look for better things from the 24 yr old rookie. The public is all over the Red Sox but with Sale not looking himself of late and on the road we will be the contrarian here and take the HUGE DOG.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Play: Over 9.5
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to grind out wins as the mid-season classic approaches and take Comerica Park field tonight in a contest against the Detroit Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET with Rays Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA) opposing Tigers Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.68).
Cobb comes off a one run and six inning outing against Oakland that followed arguably his most ineffective turn of the season in which he allowed nine runs in five frames in Seattle against the Mariners. Cobb strong start versus the A's should be taken with a grain of salt. The A's strike out nearly three times for every walk they draw and through 13 starts this season Cobb has a 4.29 ERA (4.40 xFIP). He, like many other pitchers in the league, are offered some refuge from regression when facing the Athletics lineup.
Cobb has a strong walk percentage of just seven but is giving up too much contact, hard contact, with a reduced K rate this season (just 16 percent). The lack of missed bats and his 38% hard contact rate has resulted in a rise in his fly ball to ground ball ratio and his 1-plus home runs per nine innings despite receiving half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Tropicana. Cobb's out pitch during his career, his changeup, has been discarded this year in favor of his curveball and the now two pitch-pitcher that has ditched the most effective pitch in his arsenal is a fifth starter for the Rays and any other club in the league.
Verlander left a Sunday start two turns back with groin tightness throwing just two innings vs. the Chicago White Sox. He returned for his next start working on six days of rest only to average nearly 22 pitches per inning in a no decision against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Verlander has been ineffective for the better part of the last month. He has allowed 12 runs on 26 hits over his last 19 2/3 innings in his past four starts and scuffled with his command issuing 37 walks in 75 innings. The former Cy Young winner has not only struggled with his command he has lost the late movement that has served him well during his career giving him a strong SwStrike percentage and an out pitch. Most recently JV has not been efficient and the result has been a high pitch count and early departures from his starts. In his last turn versus the Boston Red Sox he threw 108 pitches in which 22 where fouled off by the Red Sox lineup. Two turns ago, in Comerica versus the White Sox the Tigers big right-hander threw 72 pitches in which the Pale Sox fouled off 21.
San Francisco at Colorado
Play: Colorado -1.5
Jeff Hoffman has been one of the many positive stories from an unexpectedly solid Colorado Rockies pitching staff that has led the team to a 42-26 record. Hoffman sports a 2.33 ERA over four starts; all them Colorado wins by two runs or more. Along with the stellar ERA is a 0.74 WHIP, 34 strikeouts, and only three walks. The San Francisco Giants have endured a dismal season that is now 17 games below .500 after yesterday's 7-2 loss to Kansas City. The always problematic lefty Matt Moore takes the mound tonight in what can only be considered a precarious situation. Moore has surrendered nine runs in his last 10 innings of work and he?s been at his worst on the highway with a 7.94 ERA. Not surprisingly, the Giants are just 1-6 in Moore?s seven road starts. Moore?s track record at Coors Field is equally unimpressive has he allowed 12 runs in his previous two starts. The Colorado bullpen has been terrific all season and has the arms to preserve a lead in the latter innings. The moneyline price is a tad rich but it?s worth noting that 33 of Colorado?s 42 wins have been margins of two runs or more. Good spot to step in a lay the -1.5 at the small plus price with the superior home team
Royals vs. Angels
Play:Royals +119
I'm going to take a shot here with the Royals as a dog in Thursday's series opener against the Angels. Kansas City just swept the Giants in a short 2-game set and have won 4 straight overall, outscoring their opponents in their last 4 games by a score of 35-12. The Royals have racked up 10 or more hits in 6 of their last 9 games. I see no reason they can't keep it going at the plate against Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts. The value here with KC and why this is only a free pick, is that the Royals will be sending out Matt Strahm to make his first career big league start. You never know what the nerves will do to a kid in this spot, but based off what we have seen the past two years out of the bullpen, there's reason to be optimistic. In his 44 innings as a reliever, he's posted a 2.86 ERA with an impressive 56 strikeouts.
Yankees vs. A's
Play: A's +103
This line is begging for you to take the Yankees and most are taking the bait. I believe the value here with the A's, who will be excited to return home after an awful 5-game trip out east to play the Rays and Marlins. As good as New York has been playing, they are just .500 (16-16) on the road and just droppe 2 of 3 in their last series against the Angels in LA. The big key here for me is that Oakland has the kind of starter going that can keep the Yankees' big bats in check. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the A's and this is a guy that when he's healthy
The big key here for me is that Oakland has the kind of starter going that can keep the Yankees' big bats in check. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the A's and this is a guy that when he's healthy an in form, is a legit Cy Young contender. He's been up and down this season, but is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 4 home starts and has shown some good signs of late with 16 strikeouts in his last 13 innings of work.
New York will send out lefty Jordy Montgomery, who has been throwing the ball well of late, but I don't think he's someone you can trust on the road. A's have won 7 of 9 at home against a left-handed starter, while Montgomery is a mere 1-4 in this last 5 after a Quality Start in his previous outing.
Kansas City +119 over L.A. ANGELS
What a great spot for the Royals to be taking back an inflated price against an Angels? squad that just beat the then red-hot Yanks the past two nights. A lot of folks lost money on New York at the Big A and now a lot of those same folks will switch gears and back the Angels against the perceived weak Royals. The Angels won in extra innings on Tuesday and then fell behind 4-0 in the first inning last night before rallying to win it, 7-5. So, aside from the emotional letdown after back-to-back dramatic wins against the Yanks, Ricky Nolasco is not worthy of being priced in this range on his best day.
When Ricky Nolasco throws a good game, it?s a complete fluke. Nolasco's 18 walks issued in 62 innings is also a fluke, as his 58% first pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will catch up with him soon. As his walks increase, his command will erode, returning him or keeping him at his end-rotation profile. Nolasco has two wins in 13 starts so his chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. His 1.37 WHIP, 4.96 xERA, 1.46 WHIP and 5.11 xERA over his last five starts confirm all of the above. Nolasco is well below average.
Part of our procedure in getting ready for the season is to make a few notes on every potential starter in the league. We can then refer back to those notes once the season starts and perhaps find some hidden value in there somewhere when a rather unknown pitcher shows up. Such is the case with Matt Strahm. Our notes on Strahm were as follows: Went 2-2, 1.23 ERA in 22 IP for KC. Seemed to have fixed control issues prior to 7/31 callup, though first-pitch strike rate calls that into question. Things did get a bit loose late (7 BB in last 7.1 IP), but MLB 12.3 K?s/9, strong swing and miss rate, futility of RHB hint at significant upside, especially given reports he'll compete for starting role in spring. Keep an eye on him.
We?re going to do exactly that. Strahm has not started this year but has appeared in 20 games and has 26 K?s in 22 innings. His control issues have not disappeared so that risk is still there but he?s a pitcher that has a live arm and his stuff can get filthy. Strahm has more upside as a starter than reliever and it?s a role he?s more accustomed to anyway. Lastly, after a horrible start to the year, the Royals have won 13 of their past 20 games to get right back into the race. They are one of the hotter teams in the league right now but they?re not priced like it. Invest.
Milwaukee +134 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals continue to struggle but they continue to be priced like they?re in first place. Aside from a shaky defense, St. Louis is 30-34 and just a game over .500 at home.
Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. He's been blown up in his last three though, bringing his mark for the season up to 4.50 and the overall picture is mediocre once again. There's nothing wrong with Wacha?s velocity or his ability to miss bats, even during his recent rough stretch. That being said, his swing and miss rate doesn't support a strikeout per inning, so his K-rate will probably drop back towards his career norms. He had decent control through his first seven outings, but with nine walks in 11.1 innings over his last three, his control is now the worst it's ever been. On a positive note, he did have a 66 percent first-pitch strike rate over those three starts, and in his last two, he's thrown a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than any of his other starts. The balls in play against him are in line with his past numbers, but he's been hurt a little bit by both poor defense behind him and a slightly inflated home run per fly-ball rate. Wacha has been getting knocked around lately after a hot start, but nothing in his game log stands out as anything out of the ordinary.
Michael Wacha could be the poster boy for what we?re preaching and that is nobody can predict outcomes. His skills have been the same pretty much all year but he?ll throw a gem one game, get whacked the next and then go six innings and allow three or four runs the next time out. He?s a risk when favored and he has value when being offered a price. He plays for a team around .500 and he?ll be facing a team around .500. Wacha will do well if balls are hit at people but he won?t if they?re not and some hits are strung together. Many pitchers are at the mercy of batted balls in play, team defense and other variables and Michael Wacha is no exception. He?s a viable mid-rotation starter without the type of ceiling some were expecting when he first made a splash back in 2013. Zach Davies is very much in the same boat as Wacha so the choice here is not a difficult one. Milwaukee?s chances of winning are at least equal to the Cards? chances and therefore the price prompts us to step in.
Giants at Rockies
Play: Over
San Francisco has a pathetic offense. But they have actually busted out for seven or more runs in five of their last 10 games. That is something. And I think that they will be able to get to Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has been dealing. He has just a 2.33 ERA and a sick 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But things have been coming a little too easy for him and I think he is due for a dud. He hasn't pitched in Coors Field in several weeks and he won't get away with some of the stuff there that he has been on the road. The Giants are going with Matt Moore here and Colorado has been beating up lefties all season long. They have the most runs in the Majors against left-handed pitching and I can see this one turning into a 7-5 shootout.
08:40 PM Colorado Rockies -1.5 +100 ( M Moore - L / J Hoffman - R )
10:05 PM New York Yankees -1.5 +125 ( J Montgomery - L / S Gray - R )
10:05 PM Kansas City Royals +103 ( ACTION /R Nolasco - R )
07:05 PM Boston Red Sox -1.5 -151 ( C Sale - L / N Pivetta - R )
07:00 PM TOTAL o165-110 (Atlanta Dream vrs Indiana Fever)
10:30 PM San Antonio Stars +14-105
1 unit bet pays 102 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Play: Washington -112
Washington got spanked by Atlanta Wednesday who put up 13 runs on 16 hits while the Mets put up nine runs on 14 hits on Chicago winning 9-4. These two teams are one and two in the NL East, but having different types of years as the Nationals are 39-26 in first while the Mets are 30-34 in second place a difference of 8.5 games. Washington is 21-12 on the road while the Mets are 16-20 at home. Washington is sending Gio Gonzalez to the mound who is off to a great start with a 5-1 record with a 2.91 ERA with four of those wins coming on the road. Gio Gonzalez is 1-0 against the Mets this year with a win in New York allowing a run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings. In his career Gonzalez is 12-5 in 21 starts and 2.96 ERA. At Citi Field Gonzalez has made 14 starts and has a 1.62 ERA with a 9-1 record. The Mets are going with Steven Matz who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA after a seven inning outing allowing just a single run on five hits to the Braves in his first start of the season. Matz has had just two starts against the Nationals and is 1-1 with an ERA of 1.80. Look for a great pitchers duel between these two lefties with runs to be at a a premium and with the game tied at one the Mets pen will give up a pair of runs in the 7th as Gonzalez picks up another win over the Mets 3-1.
Jeff Hoffman's season (25.2 inn) marks call it SIERA 2.8 - FIP 2.1 - XFIP 3.2 with a K%/BB% of 33%/3.2% over 25.2 Innings. 19 of those innings have come on the road. In those 6.2 innings at home his marks call it FIP 4.9 - XFIP 3.7 with a K%/BB% of 34%/6.9%. A low WHIP of 1.35 at home helps in his one home start.
The conundrum for backing Hoffman and home is that his road FIP of 1.7 (19 in) is much better than his home FIP of 4.9 (6 in). Not a completely isolated event with a Rockie starter.
A deeper dive into the home start agaisnt the Dodgers reveals that when the Dodgers came to visit on May 11, they were among the top 10 teams in batting. Today the Giants, # 28 out of 30 teams in batting visit Coors Field and Hoffman. Hoffman has had 3 subsequent starts giving up 1 ER in each, but more importantly, seeing his innings pitched increase by 6.3% over those starts. He is getting deeper into games.
The Giants send Matt Moore to the hill where the Starting 4 Batters for the Rockies show these numbers.
PA BA OPS HR
Charlie Blackmon 11 .273 1.000 1
DJ LeMahieu 13 .455 1.007 0
Nolan Arenado 15 .500 1.462 1
Mark Reynolds 18 .278 .722 1
Add to this that both CarGo and Story have both homered off Moore and an opportunity opens up for Colorado Ml -155 (1.2 Unit) and Colorado RL +130 (1/2 Unit)
Hi xxxxx,
Very sound analysis, I'm a stat man, so I love it that you use of those metrics.
I was ready to use COL and on of my two "MLB Summer Clasic Contest" picks today. Hoffman's home/road discrepancy is certainly worth oting. However, Firts, it's a very small sample size (1 start) against a vert good team (LAD) although apparently not today. Second, that start v LA wasn't awful (6 hits, 1 HR and 3 runs in 5.1 innings, with 8 Ks and 2 BBs. Stats are great but with such a small sample size, one good start tonight and they could look radically different tomorrow.
Moore's home-road splits have been even more drastic this season. He owns a 1.17 WHIP, a 3.02 ERA and a .229 BAA at AT&T Park compared to a 1.91 WHIP, a 7.94 ERA, and a .338 BAA in his six road starts. Even his K/BB ratio is 33/23 at home v 25/17 on the road.
As you also noted, Hoffman's facing SF, not LA, and offensively SF is awfu: Offensive runs above average - rank #30; Weighted runs created plus - rank #30; Weighted on-base average - rank #30.
COL may not be an offensive dynamo this season, even at Coors, but they are clearly bette than this SF team.
Another reason i kind of still like COL is a solid bullpen. That's been the surprising key to this Rockies team.
Jordan Montgomery ? 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Last six starts from Monty: 9.00 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.34 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 4.04 xFIP (9.1% HR/FB), 26.7% hard contact, 11.8% whiff rate overall. Ummmm why is he still not owned everywhere?
Robert Gsellman ? 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Last three Gsellman starts: 1.42 ERA, 7.11 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 22.8% soft contact, 54.5% grounders. That?s great! Against the Brewers, Pirates, and Braves while boasting a 4.24 SIERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.08 FIP. That?s bad! I?m not sold that Gsellman has returned to what we were hoping he would be in the pre-season, and he gets a tough matchup now against the Nationals followed by the Dodgers. Makes it easy to resist adding him back to the squad.
Jeff Hoffman ? 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Jeez, will this ever end? Three of his four starts have been of just 1 ER, and he?s walked jsut three batters with 34 Ks in his 27.0 innings ? with a 6.75 IPS! This is crazy, but to be fair, his worst start was 3 ER in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers, with his last three starts coming against the Phils, Padres, and Cubs (21st in woBA!), all outside of Coors. Just sayin?. Now the question remains what kind of security Hoffman has in the rotation, but if he were to stick around, this Spice Girl would get the Giants and I?d start him regardless of Coors or not.
Royals at Angels
Pick: Over
The Kansas City bats have come alive, on a 4-0 run scoring 35 runs. The pitching staff is #19 in ERA and they have to go with a reliever in 25-year old Matt Strahm (4.50 ERA), his first start of the season. He has walked 18 batters in 22 innings. The L.A. Angels are 23-8-2 over the total at home against a team with a losing record. The Angels go with 34-year old Rick Nolasco (2-7, 4.81 ERA), who has a 5.81 ERA at home. The team has lost his last 8 starts.
Thursday's comp play goes on the Yankees and the Athletics to land Under the posted total.
Rookie Jordan Montgomery has been impressive in manager Joe Girardi's rotation, as the southpaw has come on strong with a 1.56 ERA over his last 3 turns through the rotation.
He has allowed just 4 earned runs to cross in his last 4 starts, and the Under is 5-1 for his last 6 starts.
Sonny Gray does not appear to be all the way back from a string of injuries, and does sport an ERA of 6 over his last 3 assignments, but he did strike out 10 in his last start against Tampa Bay.
Oakland has been playing them high of late - 6-0-1 Over their last 7 games - but 6 of the last 10 in this series have landed Under the total.
I will side with the pitching to keep the runs off the scoreboard in the series opener.
Thursday comp play on Boston -1 1/2 runs over Philadelphia.
Nothing like playing the Phillies to help you make up some ground in the standings!
After a pair of extra-inning walk-off wins at Fenway Park on Monday and Tuesday, the Red Sox went down to Philly and hammered the Fightin's, 7-3 last night.
Tonight look for them to pull off the 4-game sweep, and do it by another comfortable margin with southpaw Chris Sale on the mound.
The BoSox have won 7 straight interleague games versus the Phillies, and 9 of the past 10 dating back to 2013. 7 of those 9 wins have come by 2 runs or better.
Sale's ERA is a little large at 5.50 for his last 3 starts, but he is 3-0 in those starts, and stands at 8-2 for the year with his team 10-3 when he trots to the mound.
Nick Pivetta owns just one win in his short time up this year, as he stands at 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. Philadelphia is just 1-5 when he starts this year.
I smell a blowout.
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Red Sox -1?
The Boston Red Sox travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies on Thursday night. Boston is 37-28 SU overall this year while Philadelphia comes in with a 21-43 SU overall record on the season. Chris Sale is 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA overall this year, 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA on the road this season and 3-0 his last 3 starts. Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA at home this season. Boston is 11-3 in inter-league play this year where they are allowing only 4 runs per game. Philadelphia is 0-7 last 7 games overall where they are scoring only 2.7 runs per game. Philadelphia is allowing 5.7 runs per game at home this year, 5.5 runs per game at night this season and 7.5 runs per game in inter-league play this year. Boston is 8-1 overall vs Philadelphia the past 3 years. Philadelphia is 0-8 in inter-league play this year. Philadelphia is 10-29 this year when playing at night. Philadelphia is 11-32 this year after a loss. We'll recommend a small play on Boston on the Run line tonight!
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +220
The Phillies and Red Sox play the last game of their home and home series tonight in Philadelphia and the Phillies have lost all 3 so far. We are going to take a flyer on the HUGE underdog Phillies tonight as we are getting plus 220 at the time of this writing. The starting pitchers tonight are for the Red Sox LH Chris Sale (8-2, 2.97 ERA) and he will face the Phillies Nick Pivetta (1-3, 5.52 ERA) Sale has been great for the Red Sox this year but he has been a little off in his last 3 starts sporting a 5.50 ERA with a WHIP of 1.556. Last year when Sale visited Citizens Bank Park he was hit around for 6 runs in 4 innings. As for Pivetta he has been basically terrible so far but he is young and most of those starts were on the road. He is getting his second home start today and we look for better things from the 24 yr old rookie. The public is all over the Red Sox but with Sale not looking himself of late and on the road we will be the contrarian here and take the HUGE DOG.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Play: Over 9.5
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to grind out wins as the mid-season classic approaches and take Comerica Park field tonight in a contest against the Detroit Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET with Rays Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA) opposing Tigers Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.68).
Cobb comes off a one run and six inning outing against Oakland that followed arguably his most ineffective turn of the season in which he allowed nine runs in five frames in Seattle against the Mariners. Cobb strong start versus the A's should be taken with a grain of salt. The A's strike out nearly three times for every walk they draw and through 13 starts this season Cobb has a 4.29 ERA (4.40 xFIP). He, like many other pitchers in the league, are offered some refuge from regression when facing the Athletics lineup.
Cobb has a strong walk percentage of just seven but is giving up too much contact, hard contact, with a reduced K rate this season (just 16 percent). The lack of missed bats and his 38% hard contact rate has resulted in a rise in his fly ball to ground ball ratio and his 1-plus home runs per nine innings despite receiving half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Tropicana. Cobb's out pitch during his career, his changeup, has been discarded this year in favor of his curveball and the now two pitch-pitcher that has ditched the most effective pitch in his arsenal is a fifth starter for the Rays and any other club in the league.
Verlander left a Sunday start two turns back with groin tightness throwing just two innings vs. the Chicago White Sox. He returned for his next start working on six days of rest only to average nearly 22 pitches per inning in a no decision against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Verlander has been ineffective for the better part of the last month. He has allowed 12 runs on 26 hits over his last 19 2/3 innings in his past four starts and scuffled with his command issuing 37 walks in 75 innings. The former Cy Young winner has not only struggled with his command he has lost the late movement that has served him well during his career giving him a strong SwStrike percentage and an out pitch. Most recently JV has not been efficient and the result has been a high pitch count and early departures from his starts. In his last turn versus the Boston Red Sox he threw 108 pitches in which 22 where fouled off by the Red Sox lineup. Two turns ago, in Comerica versus the White Sox the Tigers big right-hander threw 72 pitches in which the Pale Sox fouled off 21.
San Francisco at Colorado
Play: Colorado -1.5
Jeff Hoffman has been one of the many positive stories from an unexpectedly solid Colorado Rockies pitching staff that has led the team to a 42-26 record. Hoffman sports a 2.33 ERA over four starts; all them Colorado wins by two runs or more. Along with the stellar ERA is a 0.74 WHIP, 34 strikeouts, and only three walks. The San Francisco Giants have endured a dismal season that is now 17 games below .500 after yesterday's 7-2 loss to Kansas City. The always problematic lefty Matt Moore takes the mound tonight in what can only be considered a precarious situation. Moore has surrendered nine runs in his last 10 innings of work and he?s been at his worst on the highway with a 7.94 ERA. Not surprisingly, the Giants are just 1-6 in Moore?s seven road starts. Moore?s track record at Coors Field is equally unimpressive has he allowed 12 runs in his previous two starts. The Colorado bullpen has been terrific all season and has the arms to preserve a lead in the latter innings. The moneyline price is a tad rich but it?s worth noting that 33 of Colorado?s 42 wins have been margins of two runs or more. Good spot to step in a lay the -1.5 at the small plus price with the superior home team
Royals vs. Angels
Play:Royals +119
I'm going to take a shot here with the Royals as a dog in Thursday's series opener against the Angels. Kansas City just swept the Giants in a short 2-game set and have won 4 straight overall, outscoring their opponents in their last 4 games by a score of 35-12. The Royals have racked up 10 or more hits in 6 of their last 9 games. I see no reason they can't keep it going at the plate against Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts. The value here with KC and why this is only a free pick, is that the Royals will be sending out Matt Strahm to make his first career big league start. You never know what the nerves will do to a kid in this spot, but based off what we have seen the past two years out of the bullpen, there's reason to be optimistic. In his 44 innings as a reliever, he's posted a 2.86 ERA with an impressive 56 strikeouts.
Yankees vs. A's
Play: A's +103
This line is begging for you to take the Yankees and most are taking the bait. I believe the value here with the A's, who will be excited to return home after an awful 5-game trip out east to play the Rays and Marlins. As good as New York has been playing, they are just .500 (16-16) on the road and just droppe 2 of 3 in their last series against the Angels in LA. The big key here for me is that Oakland has the kind of starter going that can keep the Yankees' big bats in check. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the A's and this is a guy that when he's healthy
The big key here for me is that Oakland has the kind of starter going that can keep the Yankees' big bats in check. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the A's and this is a guy that when he's healthy an in form, is a legit Cy Young contender. He's been up and down this season, but is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 4 home starts and has shown some good signs of late with 16 strikeouts in his last 13 innings of work.
New York will send out lefty Jordy Montgomery, who has been throwing the ball well of late, but I don't think he's someone you can trust on the road. A's have won 7 of 9 at home against a left-handed starter, while Montgomery is a mere 1-4 in this last 5 after a Quality Start in his previous outing.
Kansas City +119 over L.A. ANGELS
What a great spot for the Royals to be taking back an inflated price against an Angels? squad that just beat the then red-hot Yanks the past two nights. A lot of folks lost money on New York at the Big A and now a lot of those same folks will switch gears and back the Angels against the perceived weak Royals. The Angels won in extra innings on Tuesday and then fell behind 4-0 in the first inning last night before rallying to win it, 7-5. So, aside from the emotional letdown after back-to-back dramatic wins against the Yanks, Ricky Nolasco is not worthy of being priced in this range on his best day.
When Ricky Nolasco throws a good game, it?s a complete fluke. Nolasco's 18 walks issued in 62 innings is also a fluke, as his 58% first pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will catch up with him soon. As his walks increase, his command will erode, returning him or keeping him at his end-rotation profile. Nolasco has two wins in 13 starts so his chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. His 1.37 WHIP, 4.96 xERA, 1.46 WHIP and 5.11 xERA over his last five starts confirm all of the above. Nolasco is well below average.
Part of our procedure in getting ready for the season is to make a few notes on every potential starter in the league. We can then refer back to those notes once the season starts and perhaps find some hidden value in there somewhere when a rather unknown pitcher shows up. Such is the case with Matt Strahm. Our notes on Strahm were as follows: Went 2-2, 1.23 ERA in 22 IP for KC. Seemed to have fixed control issues prior to 7/31 callup, though first-pitch strike rate calls that into question. Things did get a bit loose late (7 BB in last 7.1 IP), but MLB 12.3 K?s/9, strong swing and miss rate, futility of RHB hint at significant upside, especially given reports he'll compete for starting role in spring. Keep an eye on him.
We?re going to do exactly that. Strahm has not started this year but has appeared in 20 games and has 26 K?s in 22 innings. His control issues have not disappeared so that risk is still there but he?s a pitcher that has a live arm and his stuff can get filthy. Strahm has more upside as a starter than reliever and it?s a role he?s more accustomed to anyway. Lastly, after a horrible start to the year, the Royals have won 13 of their past 20 games to get right back into the race. They are one of the hotter teams in the league right now but they?re not priced like it. Invest.
Milwaukee +134 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals continue to struggle but they continue to be priced like they?re in first place. Aside from a shaky defense, St. Louis is 30-34 and just a game over .500 at home.
Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. He's been blown up in his last three though, bringing his mark for the season up to 4.50 and the overall picture is mediocre once again. There's nothing wrong with Wacha?s velocity or his ability to miss bats, even during his recent rough stretch. That being said, his swing and miss rate doesn't support a strikeout per inning, so his K-rate will probably drop back towards his career norms. He had decent control through his first seven outings, but with nine walks in 11.1 innings over his last three, his control is now the worst it's ever been. On a positive note, he did have a 66 percent first-pitch strike rate over those three starts, and in his last two, he's thrown a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than any of his other starts. The balls in play against him are in line with his past numbers, but he's been hurt a little bit by both poor defense behind him and a slightly inflated home run per fly-ball rate. Wacha has been getting knocked around lately after a hot start, but nothing in his game log stands out as anything out of the ordinary.
Michael Wacha could be the poster boy for what we?re preaching and that is nobody can predict outcomes. His skills have been the same pretty much all year but he?ll throw a gem one game, get whacked the next and then go six innings and allow three or four runs the next time out. He?s a risk when favored and he has value when being offered a price. He plays for a team around .500 and he?ll be facing a team around .500. Wacha will do well if balls are hit at people but he won?t if they?re not and some hits are strung together. Many pitchers are at the mercy of batted balls in play, team defense and other variables and Michael Wacha is no exception. He?s a viable mid-rotation starter without the type of ceiling some were expecting when he first made a splash back in 2013. Zach Davies is very much in the same boat as Wacha so the choice here is not a difficult one. Milwaukee?s chances of winning are at least equal to the Cards? chances and therefore the price prompts us to step in.
Giants at Rockies
Play: Over
San Francisco has a pathetic offense. But they have actually busted out for seven or more runs in five of their last 10 games. That is something. And I think that they will be able to get to Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has been dealing. He has just a 2.33 ERA and a sick 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But things have been coming a little too easy for him and I think he is due for a dud. He hasn't pitched in Coors Field in several weeks and he won't get away with some of the stuff there that he has been on the road. The Giants are going with Matt Moore here and Colorado has been beating up lefties all season long. They have the most runs in the Majors against left-handed pitching and I can see this one turning into a 7-5 shootout.
