02:20 PM MLB [952] CHI CUBS -310 ( Z DAVIES -R / J ARRIETA -R )
01:10 PM MLB [964] TOTAL u9.5 -110 (BOS RED SOX vrs DET TIGERS) (BUCHHOLZ/BOYD)
12:30 PM SOC [26330] FC Krasnodar -550 - UEFA Europa League First playoff round
02:00 PM SOC [26338] Fenerbahce -245 - UEFA Europa League First playoff round
02:30 PM SOC [26358] Kaa Gent -345 - UEFA Europa League First playoff round
1 unit bet pays 4.42 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay posted later (missed yesterday's parlay by 1 leg again...)
MLB parlays: 12-135, -30.48 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Nick Cafardo@nickcafardo
Clay Buchholz was supposed to go ahead to Detroit for tomorrow's start but bad weather forced him back to park. Will now leave w/team.
Under is 14-4 in BOS last 18 road games.
Under is 6-2-2 in Buchholzs last 10 road starts.
Under is 14-6 in Red Sox last 20 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Boyd?s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
It was noted earlier in the thread that David Ortiz would also not play tomorrow, so taking an early Detroit lead is not the worst thing (although there is better than -112 to be found if you have some shopping available). But one of the things I have wondered about, but have not been able to get clarification on, is whether Craig Kimbrel, who was declared out of tonight's game early this afternoon, may have already flown ahead to Detroit. That might matter a little because it would mean at least three key parts to the equation - Kimbrel, Hanley Ramirez and Clay Buchholz, will not be impacted by tonight's travel sequence at all.
The Tigers apparently ticked off the Red Sox for this game as Boston requested to push back the start time because of a game the Red Sox have to play in Baltimore the night before. A Boston writer surmised the Tigers were getting back at former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, now in charge of the Red Sox. But here?s what Tigers GM Al Avila had to say: ?That 1:00 start time on Thursdays here is positive with our fans here in Detroit. We draw big crowds. It?s become a tradition. In fact, all six of our Thursday home games this season start at 1:00. We play them that way. We?ve been playing them that way for a long time.? Also, the Lions play a preseason game next door at Ford Field on Thursday night. MLB allows each team to set its own home game times.
Some perspective on the Tigers, which I should turn in to a main column piece - Jose Iglesias was playing shortstop at an overall 1.3 WAR, including rating #6 of all players defensively according to Fangraphs (not just shortstops), when he went on the DL. Erick Aybar started tonight, with an overall -1.2 WAR. How bad is that? Of 172 players that qualify, he checks in at #169. That is a substantial drop at a key position, though it may not be something the markets will factor properly.
Boston is enduring a brutal travel schedule that had them going from Boston on Sunday to Cleveland on Monday afternoon for a makeup game and then onto Baltimore for a quick two-game set before the key series in Detroit that will help determine postseason positioning. The Red Sox are showing no ill effects from the travel yet and are outscoring opponents 47-15 during a six-game winning streak that has pushed them into the top American League wild card spot and left them one game behind the Blue Jays for the AL East lead.
Zach Davies has been very good lately and that includes a win over the Cubs in the last month, where he pitched brilliantly. As good as Jake Arrieta has been, the Cubs lost five of his last seven starts at home.
Jake Arrieta gets one of the day's most enticing matchups, a home start against Milwaukee. The Brewers have been one of baseball's worst teams against righty pitching this year (87 wRC+), but the real draw here is the Brew Crew's inability to make consistent contact. They strike more than a quarter of the time -- more than any team in baseball -- and that includes a 26 percent whiff rate against right-handers. Arrieta has fanned more than six in a game just once in his past nine times out, but he could very well threaten double-digit K's in this matchup.
- whether or not betting events are on "The Screen". The reference is to Don Best and Sports Options, which serve as clearing houses for the major sports, and make it easier for the Sports Books to have an awareness of the various idiosyncrasies of the betting world. Hence the existence of universal betting #'s for the teams/competitors in the event, time changes and injuries get shared. But for the Olympic events much of this is each sports book having to create and grade their own menus, and that is leading to the mistakes - some just do not have the manpower to do it properly.
We both feel like this time of the year has a similar feel to it as the last 2 weeks before the all star break. Dog days in a long grind. A lot of heat. Pens worn down creating a better likelihood of that "take one for the team" situation. Something that won't happen once September 1st arrives. Could a possible run on the salami over be in the mix?
Regarding the salami, I think it's a really interesting thought. The logic is sound on a big-picture basis. But today you've got Arrieta, Fernandez, madbum and degrom with only 11 games, so there aren't as many opportunities for games to blow up. And there's no game in Colorado which was a big help the last couple of days. I think today may not be the day to try it, but the pre AS break comparison is really interesting. I like it,
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Over 8
Anaheim is a good offensive park and the Over is 19-7 when the Mariners face a team with a losing record. Hisashi Iwakuma is on the hill allowing more hits than innings pitched. He's better at home, too, with a 4.17 road ERA as opponents hit .285 off him. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 road games. They face a struggling LA pitching staff with Matt Shoemaker (6-13, 4.22 ERA) going. He is off a loss at Cleveland allowing 12 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. The Over is 15-5-1 when the Angels face the American League West and this shapes up as an offensive show.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Dodgers -143
Dave Roberts should be the leading candidate for NL Manager of the Year as he has the Dodgers in first place in the NL West even though his team has suffered numerous injuries, including Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles has won seven of its last 10 games and coming off two wins in Philadelphia by a combined score of 22-7. Ross Stripling has pitched better on the road this season with a 3.04 ERA and .179 opponent batting average. The Phillies have never faced him, but they are 28th in the major leagues with a .696 OPS against right-handers and last with a .647 OPS at home. Jerad Eickhoff gave up five runs in six innings at San Diego on Aug. 7 and then allowed three runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 innings against Colorado on Saturday. The Phillies have lost 31 of their last 43 against teams with winning records.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8?
The first-place LA Dodgers go for a three-game sweep of the Phillies when the teams meet tonight in Philadelphia.
The Dodgers (66-52, 28-28 road) have been on a tear offensively blasting seven homers in a pair of lopsided victories to start the series. Adrian Gonzalez smacked a pair of home runs and knocked in five runs in Wednesday?s 7-2 victory as the Dodgers moved 1.5 in front of the faltering San Francisco Giants atop the National League West. Gonzalez is tearing it up at the dish going 18 for 40 with 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored during a 10-game hitting streak.
The Phillies (56-64, 28-30 home) have lost two straight after putting together a modest four-game winning streak. Cesar Hernandez extended his on-base streak to 23 games and has hit safely in six straight for Philadelphia.
A pair of rookie hurlers will square with LA sending Ross Stripling (3-4, 4.07 ERA) vs. the Phillies Jerad Eickhoff (8-12, 3.82). Stripling will be making his third straight start following four relief appearances in a row.
Eickhoff has won his last two starts, although he hasn't been particularly sharp in either one. He was reached for three runs on 10 hits, including a pair of homers, in 5 1/3 innings against Colorado last time out and also surrendered two homers at San Diego in his previous turn. Eickhoff is 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 12 starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
The Dodgers have out-scored the Phillies 22-7 in the first two games of this series in Philly, but I don't think we'll see LA complete the sweep here in the finale. Philly had won five of six at home prior to this series, and they should have a pitching mismatch in their favor tonight. Jerad Eickoff will toe the slab for the Phillies, and he's having a solid season despite playing for one of the worst teams in the majors. Eickoff (8-12, 3.82 ERA) allowed three runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win over the Rockies his last time out. The Phillies have won three of his last four home starts, and he's 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in a dozen starts at Citizen's Bank Park this season. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Ross Stripling, who has worked mostly out of the bullpen. The 26 year old was torched for five runs on six hits, including a pair of home runs in a home loss to the Pirates his last time out. He has pretty dramatic splits, with an ERA of 1.32 in 20.2 innings during the day, and an ERA of 5.32 in 45.2 innings at night. The Phillies rank second in the National League in runs scored during the month of August, only Colorado has scored more.
Chicago (+4) over New England
No NFL head coach or team wants to be embarrassed during the preseason, but that was the case with the Chicago Bears last week in their home loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos by a 22-0 score. The stats in the game were as ugly as the final score as Chicago only managed to put up 130 yards of offense during the game. The Bears offense couldn't move the football, going three-and-out on 7 of their first 10 drives of the game as they never really threatened to score during the contest. Many of the Bears top players, along with their head coach John Fox, spoke about how poorly they played and how they all needed to be a lot better going forward. That's the exact kind of effort that were looking for during these preseason games, and especially if their facing a team that's coming off a nice winning effort like New England had as the Patriots put up a Week 1 NFL high by scoring 34 points in their game. The Pats were also able to get the much-needed work in for their opening week starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the game as well. With a big Week 3 dress rehearsal game coming up next week at Carolina, I'm looking for more of a take-it-easy type attitude from the Patriots here in this contest, which should much different than the sense of urgency that I'm expecting to see out of the Bears.
BEARS AT PATRIOTS
PLAY: BEARS +3.5
There was basically nothing positive to come out of last week?s exhibition opener for the Bears. They were pretty much bad at everything. For a team looking to put 2015 in the rear view mirror, that was a discouraging start, to put it mildly. The games might not count but for teams like the Bears, I think it?s more important for them to build a little positive momentum and instead Game One got them just the opposite result. The first-team offense was almost unbelievably incompetent, gaining 13 yards on 10 plays. Simply stated, they have to show more here. I think the Bears should have an opportunity to do better in this game. They were at least what was described as ?assertive? in the joint sessions this week.
There are a couple of possible negatives on the New England side, particularly at the QB spot. Garappolo did not have a good week of practice, and Brissett didn?t get many reps. The Patriots running game was also described as sluggish. There?s never any valuable info from Belichick, and he?s been typical Belichick at this camp. But it at least appears as though the Patriots are more focused from a gameplay standpoint on next week?s game at Carolina.
I?m not high on trends, but there are some pretty good pre-season angles that it the Bears this week, mostly having to do with teams that played very poorly at home the prior week, as was the case here. It could be that this Chicago team is so terrible that even in what really does look like a good pre-season spot, they can screw it up. But pre-season handicapping theory points their way, and the info gathered from those covering these two teams would seem to support that side as well. I?ll take the Bears and the points tonight.
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Play: Vikings +3
The Vikings are taking 3 points here and were solid in a road win at Cincinnati last week in a game where they were solid on defense. The game appeared close as the Vikings allowed an 80 yard punt return. They have Playoff revenge for a 10-9 loss and also for a blowout regular season loss, so they will be motivated here. Seattle came from behind with a big 4th Quarter to win in Kansas City. With Minnesota having covered 8 of the last 10 in week 2 we will look their way here tonight.
01:10 PM MLB [964] TOTAL u9.5 -110 (BOS RED SOX vrs DET TIGERS) (BUCHHOLZ/BOYD)
12:30 PM SOC [26330] FC Krasnodar -550 - UEFA Europa League First playoff round
02:00 PM SOC [26338] Fenerbahce -245 - UEFA Europa League First playoff round
02:30 PM SOC [26358] Kaa Gent -345 - UEFA Europa League First playoff round
1 unit bet pays 4.42 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay posted later (missed yesterday's parlay by 1 leg again...)
MLB parlays: 12-135, -30.48 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Nick Cafardo@nickcafardo
Clay Buchholz was supposed to go ahead to Detroit for tomorrow's start but bad weather forced him back to park. Will now leave w/team.
Under is 14-4 in BOS last 18 road games.
Under is 6-2-2 in Buchholzs last 10 road starts.
Under is 14-6 in Red Sox last 20 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Boyd?s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
It was noted earlier in the thread that David Ortiz would also not play tomorrow, so taking an early Detroit lead is not the worst thing (although there is better than -112 to be found if you have some shopping available). But one of the things I have wondered about, but have not been able to get clarification on, is whether Craig Kimbrel, who was declared out of tonight's game early this afternoon, may have already flown ahead to Detroit. That might matter a little because it would mean at least three key parts to the equation - Kimbrel, Hanley Ramirez and Clay Buchholz, will not be impacted by tonight's travel sequence at all.
The Tigers apparently ticked off the Red Sox for this game as Boston requested to push back the start time because of a game the Red Sox have to play in Baltimore the night before. A Boston writer surmised the Tigers were getting back at former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, now in charge of the Red Sox. But here?s what Tigers GM Al Avila had to say: ?That 1:00 start time on Thursdays here is positive with our fans here in Detroit. We draw big crowds. It?s become a tradition. In fact, all six of our Thursday home games this season start at 1:00. We play them that way. We?ve been playing them that way for a long time.? Also, the Lions play a preseason game next door at Ford Field on Thursday night. MLB allows each team to set its own home game times.
Some perspective on the Tigers, which I should turn in to a main column piece - Jose Iglesias was playing shortstop at an overall 1.3 WAR, including rating #6 of all players defensively according to Fangraphs (not just shortstops), when he went on the DL. Erick Aybar started tonight, with an overall -1.2 WAR. How bad is that? Of 172 players that qualify, he checks in at #169. That is a substantial drop at a key position, though it may not be something the markets will factor properly.
Boston is enduring a brutal travel schedule that had them going from Boston on Sunday to Cleveland on Monday afternoon for a makeup game and then onto Baltimore for a quick two-game set before the key series in Detroit that will help determine postseason positioning. The Red Sox are showing no ill effects from the travel yet and are outscoring opponents 47-15 during a six-game winning streak that has pushed them into the top American League wild card spot and left them one game behind the Blue Jays for the AL East lead.
Zach Davies has been very good lately and that includes a win over the Cubs in the last month, where he pitched brilliantly. As good as Jake Arrieta has been, the Cubs lost five of his last seven starts at home.
Jake Arrieta gets one of the day's most enticing matchups, a home start against Milwaukee. The Brewers have been one of baseball's worst teams against righty pitching this year (87 wRC+), but the real draw here is the Brew Crew's inability to make consistent contact. They strike more than a quarter of the time -- more than any team in baseball -- and that includes a 26 percent whiff rate against right-handers. Arrieta has fanned more than six in a game just once in his past nine times out, but he could very well threaten double-digit K's in this matchup.
- whether or not betting events are on "The Screen". The reference is to Don Best and Sports Options, which serve as clearing houses for the major sports, and make it easier for the Sports Books to have an awareness of the various idiosyncrasies of the betting world. Hence the existence of universal betting #'s for the teams/competitors in the event, time changes and injuries get shared. But for the Olympic events much of this is each sports book having to create and grade their own menus, and that is leading to the mistakes - some just do not have the manpower to do it properly.
We both feel like this time of the year has a similar feel to it as the last 2 weeks before the all star break. Dog days in a long grind. A lot of heat. Pens worn down creating a better likelihood of that "take one for the team" situation. Something that won't happen once September 1st arrives. Could a possible run on the salami over be in the mix?
Regarding the salami, I think it's a really interesting thought. The logic is sound on a big-picture basis. But today you've got Arrieta, Fernandez, madbum and degrom with only 11 games, so there aren't as many opportunities for games to blow up. And there's no game in Colorado which was a big help the last couple of days. I think today may not be the day to try it, but the pre AS break comparison is really interesting. I like it,
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Over 8
Anaheim is a good offensive park and the Over is 19-7 when the Mariners face a team with a losing record. Hisashi Iwakuma is on the hill allowing more hits than innings pitched. He's better at home, too, with a 4.17 road ERA as opponents hit .285 off him. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 road games. They face a struggling LA pitching staff with Matt Shoemaker (6-13, 4.22 ERA) going. He is off a loss at Cleveland allowing 12 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. The Over is 15-5-1 when the Angels face the American League West and this shapes up as an offensive show.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Dodgers -143
Dave Roberts should be the leading candidate for NL Manager of the Year as he has the Dodgers in first place in the NL West even though his team has suffered numerous injuries, including Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles has won seven of its last 10 games and coming off two wins in Philadelphia by a combined score of 22-7. Ross Stripling has pitched better on the road this season with a 3.04 ERA and .179 opponent batting average. The Phillies have never faced him, but they are 28th in the major leagues with a .696 OPS against right-handers and last with a .647 OPS at home. Jerad Eickhoff gave up five runs in six innings at San Diego on Aug. 7 and then allowed three runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 innings against Colorado on Saturday. The Phillies have lost 31 of their last 43 against teams with winning records.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8?
The first-place LA Dodgers go for a three-game sweep of the Phillies when the teams meet tonight in Philadelphia.
The Dodgers (66-52, 28-28 road) have been on a tear offensively blasting seven homers in a pair of lopsided victories to start the series. Adrian Gonzalez smacked a pair of home runs and knocked in five runs in Wednesday?s 7-2 victory as the Dodgers moved 1.5 in front of the faltering San Francisco Giants atop the National League West. Gonzalez is tearing it up at the dish going 18 for 40 with 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored during a 10-game hitting streak.
The Phillies (56-64, 28-30 home) have lost two straight after putting together a modest four-game winning streak. Cesar Hernandez extended his on-base streak to 23 games and has hit safely in six straight for Philadelphia.
A pair of rookie hurlers will square with LA sending Ross Stripling (3-4, 4.07 ERA) vs. the Phillies Jerad Eickhoff (8-12, 3.82). Stripling will be making his third straight start following four relief appearances in a row.
Eickhoff has won his last two starts, although he hasn't been particularly sharp in either one. He was reached for three runs on 10 hits, including a pair of homers, in 5 1/3 innings against Colorado last time out and also surrendered two homers at San Diego in his previous turn. Eickhoff is 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 12 starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
The Dodgers have out-scored the Phillies 22-7 in the first two games of this series in Philly, but I don't think we'll see LA complete the sweep here in the finale. Philly had won five of six at home prior to this series, and they should have a pitching mismatch in their favor tonight. Jerad Eickoff will toe the slab for the Phillies, and he's having a solid season despite playing for one of the worst teams in the majors. Eickoff (8-12, 3.82 ERA) allowed three runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win over the Rockies his last time out. The Phillies have won three of his last four home starts, and he's 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in a dozen starts at Citizen's Bank Park this season. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Ross Stripling, who has worked mostly out of the bullpen. The 26 year old was torched for five runs on six hits, including a pair of home runs in a home loss to the Pirates his last time out. He has pretty dramatic splits, with an ERA of 1.32 in 20.2 innings during the day, and an ERA of 5.32 in 45.2 innings at night. The Phillies rank second in the National League in runs scored during the month of August, only Colorado has scored more.
Chicago (+4) over New England
No NFL head coach or team wants to be embarrassed during the preseason, but that was the case with the Chicago Bears last week in their home loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos by a 22-0 score. The stats in the game were as ugly as the final score as Chicago only managed to put up 130 yards of offense during the game. The Bears offense couldn't move the football, going three-and-out on 7 of their first 10 drives of the game as they never really threatened to score during the contest. Many of the Bears top players, along with their head coach John Fox, spoke about how poorly they played and how they all needed to be a lot better going forward. That's the exact kind of effort that were looking for during these preseason games, and especially if their facing a team that's coming off a nice winning effort like New England had as the Patriots put up a Week 1 NFL high by scoring 34 points in their game. The Pats were also able to get the much-needed work in for their opening week starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the game as well. With a big Week 3 dress rehearsal game coming up next week at Carolina, I'm looking for more of a take-it-easy type attitude from the Patriots here in this contest, which should much different than the sense of urgency that I'm expecting to see out of the Bears.
BEARS AT PATRIOTS
PLAY: BEARS +3.5
There was basically nothing positive to come out of last week?s exhibition opener for the Bears. They were pretty much bad at everything. For a team looking to put 2015 in the rear view mirror, that was a discouraging start, to put it mildly. The games might not count but for teams like the Bears, I think it?s more important for them to build a little positive momentum and instead Game One got them just the opposite result. The first-team offense was almost unbelievably incompetent, gaining 13 yards on 10 plays. Simply stated, they have to show more here. I think the Bears should have an opportunity to do better in this game. They were at least what was described as ?assertive? in the joint sessions this week.
There are a couple of possible negatives on the New England side, particularly at the QB spot. Garappolo did not have a good week of practice, and Brissett didn?t get many reps. The Patriots running game was also described as sluggish. There?s never any valuable info from Belichick, and he?s been typical Belichick at this camp. But it at least appears as though the Patriots are more focused from a gameplay standpoint on next week?s game at Carolina.
I?m not high on trends, but there are some pretty good pre-season angles that it the Bears this week, mostly having to do with teams that played very poorly at home the prior week, as was the case here. It could be that this Chicago team is so terrible that even in what really does look like a good pre-season spot, they can screw it up. But pre-season handicapping theory points their way, and the info gathered from those covering these two teams would seem to support that side as well. I?ll take the Bears and the points tonight.
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Play: Vikings +3
The Vikings are taking 3 points here and were solid in a road win at Cincinnati last week in a game where they were solid on defense. The game appeared close as the Vikings allowed an 80 yard punt return. They have Playoff revenge for a 10-9 loss and also for a blowout regular season loss, so they will be motivated here. Seattle came from behind with a big 4th Quarter to win in Kansas City. With Minnesota having covered 8 of the last 10 in week 2 we will look their way here tonight.
