Thursday 12/29 Bowls

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Bowl Record
Sides: 10-10 +10.4
ML: 5-6 +5.8
Totals: 18-14 +10.4

Cheez-It Bowl

Meh. We have a now-overrated FSU team against an OU team that... well, sucked this year.

There does appear to be a distinct motivational edge, as a couple key members of the FSU defense (Verse and Robinson) who could have started draft prep are playing in this game. This is the first bowl game in Mike Norvell's 3 years at FSU. Although he was 0-3 in bowl games as HC at Memphis.

The OU defense isn't quite as bad as it appears at first glance. While they gave up a ton of yards, they only allow 5.6 yards/play, which is 74th in the country. Not good, but not as bad as their per game average would lead you to believe. Opponents just ran a lot of plays against them. 972, in fact, which is 8th most in the country. Oddly, the 7 teams that had more plays run against them all made a bowl game. And they've already played. 6 of them lost by one score and 1 won. This may be absolutely meaningless, but I'm leaving no stone unturned.

OU is missing 3 key players for this game. Gray ran for over 1,300 yards and averaged 6.4 yards/carry, nearly 2 yards better than his backups. And both offensive tackles are sitting this one out. That could spell trouble against Verse and company.

I'm still very skeptical about FSU. While they did beat LSU, that was LSU's first game of the season and FSU needed a blocked extra point to hang on. FSU only played 3 good teams in conference (Wake, NC St, and Clemson) and lost to all 3. They finished the season by beating GT, Miami, Syracuse, ULL, and Florida.

I'm really interested in how OU is going to try to move the ball offensively. Without Gray, you'd think they'll throw more. But without both tackles... it's going to be hard to protect Gabriel. They may just keep throwing to Mims, who was their leading receiver and averaged over 19 yards/catch. Guys like that usually have huge bowl games.

FSU was very strong against the pass this year, allowing 5.87 yards/att, which is 7th in the country.

Alright, guess I gotta play something in this game. I don't trust FSU to lay this many points, but they are probably the right side. But I think OU will struggle to move the ball, due in no small part to the guys they are missing.

OU TT under (27.5) 4 units

Anyone else notice the Under is 16-8 in bowl games so far?
 

ezpickin

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FSU has one of the worst in-game coaches in the country. They may roll, but agree, hard to trust them as a DD favorite
 

Smitty

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Texas Bowl

Obviously most of the Texas rushing attack is going to be on the sidelines for this game. The should be able to have some success through the air, as UW allows 7.82 yards/att, which is 104th in the country. Not sure if I really trust Ewers, who only completes 56.6% of his passes, to be able to exploit that weakness.

Penix got away from Indiana and thrived in his new offense. Who would have thought he'd lead the country in passing this year? He has completed 66% of his passes and averaged 8.7 yards/att. He has 2 1,000 yard receivers to throw to.

Texas has actually been pretty solid against the pass. They allow 6.43 yards/att, which is 25th in the country. It will be interesting to see how they hold up against the Huskies.

When your best player sits out the bowl game, that sends a message to the rest of the team - this game doesn't matter. I don't LOVE the Huskies here, but I'm betting against the Longhorns.

UW (ML) 2 to win 2.6
1Q under (14, +100) 2 units
 

ezpickin

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And he’s proving it 100% tonight :facepalm:

Awful head coach + ton of money on FSU in a late year bowl = No chance cover for the Noles. Lucky they got outta there with a win
 
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