THURSDAY ACTION

[GUNIT]

Cincinnati Reds 'ML' -154

Home Plate Umpire Bob Davidson finally made it to the big leagues after spending the last who knows how many years in the Minors. Evidently, he has been apprehensive in his first three games and in all three games the home team has won. When Davidson calls the balls and strikes, home teams are winning by 3.67 runs per game. I have noticed in the past that Umpire rookies love going with home teams. He calls a lot of strikes and rarely walks batters. This heavily favors the Reds.

Kip Wells is starting for the Buccos and is 1-5 lifetime versus the Reds but has not pitched all that bad. However, he is only 11-17 in daytime starts in his career. Wells is off to a horrendous start this season losing all three games he has pitched and sporting an ERA of 7.23. Cincinnati is 7-2 at home this season and some of their hitters have pounded Wells in the past. Adam Dunn is 9 of 24 (.375 with 2 HR's), Jason LaRue is 7 of 23 (.304), Austin Kearns is 6 of 15 (.400 with 1 HR) and both Joe Randa and Ryan Freel are batting above .325 against him.

Eric Milton has not pitched all that well this season but he is up against a Pirates team that is hitting only .199 versus lefties this season. The Reds are still 2-1 when Milton pitches this season and although his numbers in the past have not been good against Pittsburgh, he is 28-14 lifetime in daytime games. No batter on the Pirates has faced Milton more than 7 times and any data would be useless. I look for Milton to have a decent game with about 5-6 strikeouts with Davidson behind the plate.

 

[Jackanape]

Great write up, G! I was playing the Reds anyway, as I liked the matchup--and I'm a REDS fan, so the Homer in me was peeking out--but I rarely, if ever, look at ump info, and this is great to know! I like it even better now!

Thanks again! Do you track the umps on a regular basis, and if so, have you had good results?

:mj14:

 

[RTiv]

This wasn't a write up. It was a copy/paste from another forum

 

[Cappin Kirk]

Who cares where it came from, it's good info.
Thanks for posting.

 

[wareagle]

This wasn't a write up. It was a copy/paste from another forum

thanks, McGriff the crime dog

 

[GUNIT]

Boston Red Sox 'ML' +105

Home Plate Umpire Bill Welke has had a thing for ROAD TEAMS in the past and since 1999, ROAD TEAMS have been winners in five of six seasons with Welke (avg.win margin numbers only). This season, ROAD TEAMS are 3-0 with Welke behind the plate and it seems he doesn't give anykind of home field advantage. When the HOME TEAM is favored by -105 to -140, they are 0-2 this season.

Matt Clement is coming off his best outing of the season and there is reason to believe he is turning things around. Clement is 2-0 lifetime versus the Orioles with a .219 ERA. He has held Baltimore hitters to a .186 average in both games. Clement has shaken off his first two starts and is all business now. The Red Sox have now won 8 of their last 12 games in Baltimore and there is no reason to believe they won't win this one too. Boston is hitting a nice .287 on the road this season and it seems the Baltimore bats may have fallen asleep last night.

Rodrigo Lopez has been near perfect this season and the team is 3-0 when he starts. However, in his four lifetime home starts against the Red Sox, he has allowed 21 ER's in only 21.3 innings of work. Boston hitters are hitting .264 lifetime against Lopez and he is bound to have a bad game. Without the additional help from the Home Plate Umpire, this could be Rodrigo's first rough outing of the year.



Oakland-Seattle 'Under' 8

Home Plate Umpire Ed Rapuano is on ALL TIME LIST of UNDER UMPIRES. This season alone, the UNDER is 1-3 with Rapuano who is issuing 5.8 walks per game and striking out 11.8 hitters per game. Rapuano is calling 63.98% of his pitches strikes and the average number of pitches per game is only 286.2. The UNDER is 3-0 this season with Rapuano when the total is set lower than 11 runs.

Rich Harden gets the nod for the A's tonight and he has a 2.76 ERA versus the Mariners in four career starts. The M's are hitting only .203 versus Harden and he has pitched very well this season. When he starts, the UNDER is 2-0 and his season ERA is of only 0.68. All active Mariner's hitters are hitting a pathetic 11 of 54 career wise versus Harden and with that kind of bullpen, runs will be hard to come by for Seattle.

Ryan Franklin has impressed everyone this season and is 1-1 with a 2.18 ERA this season. Franklin is 3-2 lifetime versus Oakland with an ERA of only 3.75. The A's are batting only .232 lifetime versus Franklin and expect a nice outing from him. In his last four starts against Oakland, the UNDER is 4-0 and the UNDER is also 8-2 in his last 10 versus Oakland. Apart from Eric Chavez, Frankling has virtually shut down all Oakland batters over his career. Small play here.

 

[GUNIT]

There's a few umps that I try to find out when they are behind the plate but overall it has worked in my favor. Two that I like alot is Tim Timmons when behind plate last yr 21 unders and 8 overs. Paul Schrieber was 25 overs and 8 unders last season and 18 ov 12 unders previous. Seem to be going the opposite so far but they'll eventually go back.

 

[GUNIT]

RTiv I didn't know I need your permission to put up information for people to read or that I need to have a citation page. If you don't like it, its simple don't click on it.