Thursday August 30th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday August 30th 2007

yesterday: 2-5 -7.1
August: 199-168 +80.96
ml 89-56 +51.95
rl 9-10 -0.46
totals 42-31 +5.88
parlays & IFs 59-71 +23.59
system picks 1-1 yesterday; 51-25 in August (67%) (value indicator any+10, +7ay60+, +5at65+)
system totals 0-2 yesterday; 55-39 in August (58.5%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mets 56% (-111)+2
stl 54 (-120)-1
cin 53 (+112)+5
Cubs 53 (-165)-10 mil 47 (+157)+8
Sd 66 (-175)+2 RL 50 (+130)+6
Nyy 55 (-148)-5
det 57 (-145)-3
Clev 65 (-132)+8 RL 51 (+140)+9
tb 63 (-101)+12
Tex 65 (-145)+5 RL 51 (+130)+7

system totals

cin@Pitt ov9.5 66% (-102)+15 --Bell is an under-ump; kills this one
ariz@Sd un7.5 65 (-116)+11 --ump Reynolds is even


Things could have been worse. Got lucky on the D'Rays game.
Once again I've got to try and end a one-day losing streak.

Indians, D'Rays and Rangers are system picks for Thursday. I'll also be sucked into that Mets call, again (won't learn), and maybe take a shot with Young in a park where his era is under OnE.

The totals don't impress me.

Will post what's played.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

anybody noticing that the calls seem to be more accurate for the NL games?

I've always found the NL easier to handle than the AL, so it would make sense that a system I've created is doing the same.

Wish I'd been entering results into a database--it would sure be easier to analyze the results than way. I've just been doing all my 'caps in a Word document, copy and paste the final numbers in here.

All 3 system picks are from the AL today (2 homies and a V).
Hope that don't mean shit, as far as what I've just said goes.
I'm on those 3, the Padres, and the Mets, so far.
Down about 6 units since Sunday so I should chill to close out the month; a couple of months this season I've ended quite poorly (at least one...can't remember now).

enough rambling.
wish i had some shit about the games but I'm a bit burned out from watching all 3 of my losing sides drop 1-run games, including the Nats blowing a 5-run lead, the Mets having a brief lead, and the Jays leaving 2 men on base in each of the 10th and 11th off of a very hittable Rudi Lugo, who, with the help of the pathetic Jaysticks, lowered his era to 6.54.:com:

maybe I should look at team totals.
at least that might be useful.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

TTs
(w/relative system numbers; - for unders, etc.)

reds ov4.5 -125 (+9)very quite possibly likely
--have Pitt +4

ariz un3 +100 (-18)nice price; D'Backs are not hitting well this go round at Petco and haven't hit well lately anywhere; leaves 0,1 or 2 as winners with a 3 to push so I would think that there's gotta be a better than 50% chance of this happening:

D'Backs score......probability(%)
0............................10
1............................15
2............................21
3............................21
4............................15
5............................10
6..............................5
7+............................3

Going with the high probability as a 2or3 for this breakdown.
Slightly better chance to the shutout as I'm giving to the D'Backs cashing 6 or more.
I think that's fair.
These numbers give me a 46% chance to go under the 3, but also a 21% chance to hit a 3.
100-21=79 times with no push...
46 wins and 33 losses...
46/79% = 58.22% times a winner on no push
That's, obviously, a +8 value indicator for the +100 line.

One other method: In trying to convert the system number (-18) to a percentage,
I come up with under the 3 at (again) 58%
(base of 4 for a Petco visitor so the 3 available has to provoke an adjustment to the -18; becomes -8, here, or 58% under)
Doing it that way I get the same +8 value indicator.

ROI
------
58 x 1 = 58
42 x -1 = -42
-----------------------
..............16%

Help me out here...I don't know if that's fvcked, or what...maybe should read:
46 x 1 = 46
33 x -1 = -33
---------------------
..............13%

While a push isn't a LOSS, it still has to be factored into my ROI, doesn't it?
It's only UNDER the 3 46% of the time but it IS a winner for 58% of the non-pushes.

I think that the 13% is proper.
either way...

Gonna get me some of that while it's still available at this price.
Pads BP is having a good series so could survive three innings if that's what it takes.
Maybe Young minimizes his pitch count and can stretch it for 7.
Hope so.

Back to TTs...

--have Padres at -5 but they're solid work vs lefties and good work in general lately doesn't make them a good candidate for a Thursday under

Indians ov5.5 -130 (+10)this is Horacio's 1st vs the Indians but he's been pretty horrible and likely won't like pitching at Jacob's; moneyline looks smarter, though M's do their best work vs lefties and Laffey hasn't looked so hot in the Majors (was great in the minors)
--have M's at +3

Orioles un4.5 -135 (-13)O's hitting .243 last 10 vs L; Kazmir's April start vs the O's was mediocre but his July start vs was much better and his August start vs was the best; Kazmir just seems to be getting better as the season goes on; this is very tempting but the moneyline is much cheaper...I just hope that the O's can hit Guthrie--the O's have lost his past 5 starts and 8 of his past 11
--have the D'Rays at 0

Rangers ov5.5 +115 (+10)Rangers for the season have done their best work vs lefties but the last 10 days they're hitting .307 vs R and only .237 vs L (facing Bedard and Santana probably didn't help that number); Danks 10.66 era over his past 3 is encouraging (if you're fading); I'm on the pricey moneyline (Millwood era past 3 is(was) 2.38) so this would be overextending myself on the match
--have the Chisox at -3

Them's the works.

Jeez I wish they played 'em 24/7.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

PLAYS

system picks

Indians -132 3.96/3
devil rays -101 4.04/4
Rangers -145 2.9/2

other picks

mets -111 2.22/2
Padres -170 3.4/2

totals

diamondbacks under3 +100 1.5/1.5

10-team IF bet
1.brewers 0.5/0.8
2.Indians 0.7/0.5
3.Padres -1.5 0.6/0.75
4.mets 0.75/0.6
5.devil rays 0.55/0.5
6.Rangers 1.15/0.74
7.cardinals over5 0.81/0.81
8.reds over4.5 1.5/1.2
9.tigers 1.9/1.29
10.red sox 1.19/1.61
0.5 to win max.8.8

10-team IF bet
1.brewers 0.5/0.8
2.Rangers 0.77/0.5
3.tigers 0.73/0.5
4.Indians 0.7/0.5
5.mets 1/0.8
6.cardinals 1/0.8
7.devil rays 0.88/0.8
8.reds over4.5 1.5/1.2
9.bost-Nyy un9.5 0.9/0.9
10.Padres 1.66/0.9
0.5 to win max.7.7

10-team IF bet
1.Padres -1.5 0.5/0.63
2.mets 0.62/0.5
3.devil rays 0.55/0.5
4.cardinals 0.75/0.6
5.reds 0.7/0.74
6.Indians 1.4/1
7.Rangers 1.55/1
8.brewers 0.75/1.2
9.tigers -1.5 1/1.05
10.bost-Nyy un9.5 0.99/0.99
0.5 to win max.8.2

7-team IF bet
1.Indians -1.5 0.5/0.73
2.Orioles under4.5 0.67/0.5
3.tigers -1.5 0.5/0.53
4.Rangers -1.5 0.6/0.75
5.mets 1/0.8
6.Padres -1.5 0.8/1
7.cardinals 1.25/1
0.5 to win max.5.3

8-team IF bet
1.devil rays -1.5 0.5/0.75
2.reds over4.5 0.62/0.5
3.Indians 0.7/0.5
4.Padres -1.5 0.6/0.75
5.tigers 1.47/1
6.mets 1.25/1
7.Rangers -1.5 0.8/1
8.cardinals over5 1.5/1.5
0.5 to win max.7.

8-team IF bet
1.Rangers -1.5 0.5/0.63
2.devil rays 0.55/0.5
3.Padres -1.5 0.5/0.62
4.cardinals 0.75/0.6
5.brewers 0.75/1.2
6.mets 1.25/1
7.Indians 1.4/1
8.reds 1/1.05
0.5 to win max.6.6


System sides did go 9-6 (60%) Wednesday so all isn't lost; I just lost key plays on a 60 and a 64 (two other high ones?63 & 66?came in). Sides will finish at over 60% in August for ALL games. More important than that, I'd like to keep system picks at up over that 2/3 mark (66.6%)?one game to spare, right now (51-25)?cutting it close?need a 2-1 on syspicks today to maintain that, as a 1-2 will drop it below 66%. I'm giving each of them a solid go. I like the D'Rays and Indians fairly equally while the Rangers come in 3rd. Risking more on the Padres so I guess I like that play a little better than the Rangers--I think I might try some more on the Padres runline if I do well early?I like the fact that they're facing a lefty for this one. The Mets play I could regret, again, but they've had a good chance to take each of the past 2 games and I like the SP matchup here favouring the Mets. Others, such as the Cards, Brewers and Reds, I'm only trying on some IF action. Totals I'm taking a break from today. Enough about me; have you heard the one about the tuna and the rutabega? (sic?) gazundheit!

Month end looks possibly pretty bright, depending on how today goes?
Friday looks like it could be fantastic.
Stay tuned.

:weed:

GL

 

[BadAngel]

Go get-em EX

 

[Theboundbook]

Your 3 system plays are all my strongest picks for tonight..... Have em round robin'd, parlayed and some other fun stuff too...... Good luck to the both of us!

 

[Theboundbook]

Your 3 system plays are all my strongest picks for tonight..... Have em round robin'd, parlayed and some other fun stuff too...... Good luck to the both of us!

I love it when our plans come together!!!!


Great job!


Gonna be on Ultimate bet in a few if you want to play some poker....