Thursday August 9th 2007
yesterday: 5-9 -4.02
August: 42-33 +12.98
ml 19-15 +2.6
rl 5-1 +4.69
totals 11-8 +1.46
parlays 7-9 +4.23
system picks still 9-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-0 yesterday; 13-11 in August
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
atl 59% (-105)+7
Cin 56 (+106)+7
Sf 52 (-123)-4
Phil 64 (-132)+7
sd 58 (-145)-2
Col 62 (+101)+12
Ariz 60 (-128)+3
Det 52 (-137)-6 tb 48 (+129)+4
min 63 (-125)+7
Balt 53 (-118)-2
Cws 58 (-130)+1
system totals
atl@Mets un8 80% (+100)+30 --ump Meals is a decent UNDER-ump
lad@Cin ov10 71 (-114)+17 --ump Emmel is even
wash@Sf un9 72 (-110)+19 --Diaz is a decent UNDER-ump
tb@Det un9 70 (+105)+21 --ump Reilly is even
clev@Cws un9.5 65 (-114)+11 --ump Froemming is even
Yeah?figures?I wasn't too confident about yesterday's plays. Still, Indians coulda found a way to win and I'd have made some small coin. Went a disastrous 1-4 on the moneyline. Went 3-2 on totals; the three I hit were system totals while the other two that I tried?and lost?were my own, silly illusions; actually missed a third, too, with the Jays game under on a parlay; system call was OVER on the Jays and Rockies games so maybe next time I'll listen. I didn't quite give back half of what I had made on Tuesday, so I'll assume that my hot streak might still be alive and so tackle Thursday's board optimistically?
Rockies and Twins are system picks for Thursday (and Phillies?see below). Hard to doubt the Rockies right now, and I like the fact that they stay in their comfy confines while the Cubs travel in from Houston after getting swept there; Jimenez has some decent stuff but is still walking too many batters and remains a little risky as a play; Lilly is 7-1 over his past 8 starts, as well, so the home squad will have to really focus to take this one?I still think that they can, all the while putting themselves into the mix in both the Central and Wild-Card races. Twins finally scored some runs and might continue tomorrow against recent pick-up (from Atlanta) Davies; I'm kinda surprised that the Braves gave up on him but his first start for the Royals was pretty awful; Garza has great stuff and the Royals now go from facing a nasty lefty to a nasty righty; this one looks safe.
Very close to being system picks are the Braves and the Phillies (Phillies now are with the reduced line). I hate to fade Maine but Hudson is way sharper than him these days; I'm giving the Braves a small edge at the plate for this matchup?to go along with a slightly larger edge pitching?so I get the call very close to 60% (Braves win yesterday and it would have been at 60%, and then a system pick (+8 at 60%); I think that this one could be low-scoring, like yesterday, and umpire Meals has a rather large stike zone which helps, so I'm looking at a Mets play as well as an under play. Phillies continue to rack up the production at the plate and face Mitre who has been fading out pretty bad over the past month or so; Kendrick is 4-0 in 6 home starts with an era under 4, so he should give the Phillies a good shot to sweep this series. Phillies are now a system pick, as well, as the line has come down for them.
Reds, D'Backs and D'Rays also appear to have a little value. Dodgers have been shut out for 3 straight games and in 4 of their past 5. Dumatrait is a bit of a risk though, I think, as the Dodgers OPS vs lefties is more than 50 points higher than vs righties?you'd think they'd start hitting eventually and Thursday it might happen; Tomko shouldn't be too much trouble to hit, mind you, so the Reds will get a chance to sweep. D'Backs just put up some numbers against a lefty?which they usually have trouble with?and now get to face a struggling righty?Snell has seen his era rise for 6 consecutive games now?still a respectable 3.91 but his era over his past 5?all losses?was 8.31; Davis has been pretty solid lately but has fairly bad numbers vs the Pirates (5-5, 5.23 era, BAA .306). D'Rays have the hotter SP going in Kazmir, but Bonderman has phenomenal career numbers against the D'Rays (4-1, 1.88 era in 6, BAA .185); Kazmir only 1-3, 5.47 era in 5 vs the Tigers?hasn't faced them in '07; Tigers smoking lefties but might be tamed, somewhat, here; I'm thinking that this one could play under.
As for totals, I like the Mets, Tigers and Giants games under (all system calls). The Reds game over looks iffy the way that this series is going, but may have the ideal matchup for an over call anyway. The Chisox game under is a possibility?kinda depends on how well Laffey performs?but it's pretty expensive for a total; Indians 7-day OPS is under .700, though, and I'm not sure if Hafner was pulled due to injury or what the deal was there (pinch-hit for, as DH, about mid-way through the game); I don't know if I like that one for side OR total. For non-system totals I might try the M's-O's game under (ump Reliford is a slight under-ump?very high K% the past 3 seasons); both starters have very good career numbers vs opponent, though only Cabrera has shown any flashes of brilliance lately; I like the numbers vs opponent, the umpire, and the price (+113).
Quite a write-up for a short board.
Hope I can get back on track.
GL
yesterday: 5-9 -4.02
August: 42-33 +12.98
ml 19-15 +2.6
rl 5-1 +4.69
totals 11-8 +1.46
parlays 7-9 +4.23
system picks still 9-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-0 yesterday; 13-11 in August
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
atl 59% (-105)+7
Cin 56 (+106)+7
Sf 52 (-123)-4
Phil 64 (-132)+7
sd 58 (-145)-2
Col 62 (+101)+12
Ariz 60 (-128)+3
Det 52 (-137)-6 tb 48 (+129)+4
min 63 (-125)+7
Balt 53 (-118)-2
Cws 58 (-130)+1
system totals
atl@Mets un8 80% (+100)+30 --ump Meals is a decent UNDER-ump
lad@Cin ov10 71 (-114)+17 --ump Emmel is even
wash@Sf un9 72 (-110)+19 --Diaz is a decent UNDER-ump
tb@Det un9 70 (+105)+21 --ump Reilly is even
clev@Cws un9.5 65 (-114)+11 --ump Froemming is even
Yeah?figures?I wasn't too confident about yesterday's plays. Still, Indians coulda found a way to win and I'd have made some small coin. Went a disastrous 1-4 on the moneyline. Went 3-2 on totals; the three I hit were system totals while the other two that I tried?and lost?were my own, silly illusions; actually missed a third, too, with the Jays game under on a parlay; system call was OVER on the Jays and Rockies games so maybe next time I'll listen. I didn't quite give back half of what I had made on Tuesday, so I'll assume that my hot streak might still be alive and so tackle Thursday's board optimistically?
Rockies and Twins are system picks for Thursday (and Phillies?see below). Hard to doubt the Rockies right now, and I like the fact that they stay in their comfy confines while the Cubs travel in from Houston after getting swept there; Jimenez has some decent stuff but is still walking too many batters and remains a little risky as a play; Lilly is 7-1 over his past 8 starts, as well, so the home squad will have to really focus to take this one?I still think that they can, all the while putting themselves into the mix in both the Central and Wild-Card races. Twins finally scored some runs and might continue tomorrow against recent pick-up (from Atlanta) Davies; I'm kinda surprised that the Braves gave up on him but his first start for the Royals was pretty awful; Garza has great stuff and the Royals now go from facing a nasty lefty to a nasty righty; this one looks safe.
Very close to being system picks are the Braves and the Phillies (Phillies now are with the reduced line). I hate to fade Maine but Hudson is way sharper than him these days; I'm giving the Braves a small edge at the plate for this matchup?to go along with a slightly larger edge pitching?so I get the call very close to 60% (Braves win yesterday and it would have been at 60%, and then a system pick (+8 at 60%); I think that this one could be low-scoring, like yesterday, and umpire Meals has a rather large stike zone which helps, so I'm looking at a Mets play as well as an under play. Phillies continue to rack up the production at the plate and face Mitre who has been fading out pretty bad over the past month or so; Kendrick is 4-0 in 6 home starts with an era under 4, so he should give the Phillies a good shot to sweep this series. Phillies are now a system pick, as well, as the line has come down for them.
Reds, D'Backs and D'Rays also appear to have a little value. Dodgers have been shut out for 3 straight games and in 4 of their past 5. Dumatrait is a bit of a risk though, I think, as the Dodgers OPS vs lefties is more than 50 points higher than vs righties?you'd think they'd start hitting eventually and Thursday it might happen; Tomko shouldn't be too much trouble to hit, mind you, so the Reds will get a chance to sweep. D'Backs just put up some numbers against a lefty?which they usually have trouble with?and now get to face a struggling righty?Snell has seen his era rise for 6 consecutive games now?still a respectable 3.91 but his era over his past 5?all losses?was 8.31; Davis has been pretty solid lately but has fairly bad numbers vs the Pirates (5-5, 5.23 era, BAA .306). D'Rays have the hotter SP going in Kazmir, but Bonderman has phenomenal career numbers against the D'Rays (4-1, 1.88 era in 6, BAA .185); Kazmir only 1-3, 5.47 era in 5 vs the Tigers?hasn't faced them in '07; Tigers smoking lefties but might be tamed, somewhat, here; I'm thinking that this one could play under.
As for totals, I like the Mets, Tigers and Giants games under (all system calls). The Reds game over looks iffy the way that this series is going, but may have the ideal matchup for an over call anyway. The Chisox game under is a possibility?kinda depends on how well Laffey performs?but it's pretty expensive for a total; Indians 7-day OPS is under .700, though, and I'm not sure if Hafner was pulled due to injury or what the deal was there (pinch-hit for, as DH, about mid-way through the game); I don't know if I like that one for side OR total. For non-system totals I might try the M's-O's game under (ump Reliford is a slight under-ump?very high K% the past 3 seasons); both starters have very good career numbers vs opponent, though only Cabrera has shown any flashes of brilliance lately; I like the numbers vs opponent, the umpire, and the price (+113).
Quite a write-up for a short board.
Hope I can get back on track.
GL
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