Thursday July 12th 2007
July: 46-41 -2.16
ml 28-22 -0.03
rl 2-2 +0.96
totals 13-15 -4.5
parlays 3-2 +1.41
system picks 15-6 in July (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 13-13 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Mets 55% (-161)-7 cin 45 (+153)+5
Bost 57 (-114)+3
Balt 53 (-120)-2
nyy 53 (-138)-5 Tb 47 (+130)+3
Min 52 (-114)-2
Seat 59 (-130)+2
system totals
cin@Mets un9 68% (-120)+13
Pretty poor board to kick-start the remainder of the season. I might have tried the M's, as cheap as -120, but I think I'll spectate; Miller has been great his last couple and the Tigers sticks may not take it easy on Felix. Nothing else appears to be worth playing, to me; not with all the low calls. The loan total is another thought, but the Reds have been unkind to Hernandez before and the Reds Arroyo still hasn't quite gained the solid form that he had a few months back. Better looking action should come Friday through Sunday.
I've 'capped Friday and I'm looking at a possible 7 games at over 60%. Cubs, Mets, Brewers (in a classic with Sheets vs Francis), Indians, Twins, and maybe Yankees (if they face Jackson?it's likely Kazmir) will all have fairly high calls; maybe there will be one or two decent lines out of that pack. Cubs and Yankees (if Jackson) are the only two of those mentioned that have a +5/+5 (for pitching AND bats) advantage, so I'd restrict my plays of greater than -150 lines to those games alone. Within my post for the All-Star break I tried to explain the +5/5 idea; it's just a restriction that I should have if I want to tackle any more lines of greater than -150; the results for 2007 have been superb.
One more word on 2007 results; while assessing my system statistics for the first half, I came to the conclusion that my numbers (at least at 60% and higher) are slightly inflated; not much, but enough so that my stats are hurting. I've come up with a simple modifier that I think will bring the numbers down?if even just a touch?and make my future results a little more accurate. It takes a bit more work but it's been kinda fun so far. I'm simply making use of the large sample of numbers that the first 80+ games has produced thus far; still using my original 'cap for 75% of the result while teams records thus far (at home vs L, at home vs R, away vs L, away vs R?an average for the two teams) comprises the other 25%. In most cases this is bringing the numbers down slightly (1 of the 6 Thursday and 10 of 15 games Friday), in a few cases this is actually raising the numbers (2 of 6 Thursday and 3 of 15 Friday), and in some cases this is leaving the numbers exactly as they are (3 of 6 Thursday and 2 of 15 Friday). To take one example, for Friday, I did my normal 'cap and got the Twins at 72% (IF Santana vs Kennedy?still not sure that this one is a Kennedy start; he's apparently in the doghouse); I took 75% of that 72% and combined it with 25% of a 52% call (A's have won 53% of their road games against lefties while the Twins have only won 45% of their home games against lefties; (adjusted) average of those 2 gives Twins 52%). The result of this combo dropped the Twins 5 points to a 67% call?most of the adjustments aren't affecting original numbers this much; this is just a particular case where it sppears an adjustment was needed. I thought about messing around further, like taking a look at starting pitcher's TEAM W-L records, at home and away, or other such things, but I think I'm going to stick with what I've got for a while and see if the numbers pan out. One final note on the Santana game; of 18 Santana starts, the Twins have won only 11 (61.1%); for his HOME starts the Twins are 4-4 (50%); you can see just how difficult it would be to try and incorporate these figures into a useful 'cap; I currently have Santana rated exactly one point higher than Peavy is currently?that is where my big number came from (72%) and I think that the A's good work on the road vs lefties SHOULD factor into my overall number, but not as greatly as the other factors?the factors which I account for with my original 'cap.
Man! I can go on about this stuff, can't I?
Looks like Thursday will be my first no-play for a while.
See you tomorrow.
GL
July: 46-41 -2.16
ml 28-22 -0.03
rl 2-2 +0.96
totals 13-15 -4.5
parlays 3-2 +1.41
system picks 15-6 in July (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 13-13 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Mets 55% (-161)-7 cin 45 (+153)+5
Bost 57 (-114)+3
Balt 53 (-120)-2
nyy 53 (-138)-5 Tb 47 (+130)+3
Min 52 (-114)-2
Seat 59 (-130)+2
system totals
cin@Mets un9 68% (-120)+13
Pretty poor board to kick-start the remainder of the season. I might have tried the M's, as cheap as -120, but I think I'll spectate; Miller has been great his last couple and the Tigers sticks may not take it easy on Felix. Nothing else appears to be worth playing, to me; not with all the low calls. The loan total is another thought, but the Reds have been unkind to Hernandez before and the Reds Arroyo still hasn't quite gained the solid form that he had a few months back. Better looking action should come Friday through Sunday.
I've 'capped Friday and I'm looking at a possible 7 games at over 60%. Cubs, Mets, Brewers (in a classic with Sheets vs Francis), Indians, Twins, and maybe Yankees (if they face Jackson?it's likely Kazmir) will all have fairly high calls; maybe there will be one or two decent lines out of that pack. Cubs and Yankees (if Jackson) are the only two of those mentioned that have a +5/+5 (for pitching AND bats) advantage, so I'd restrict my plays of greater than -150 lines to those games alone. Within my post for the All-Star break I tried to explain the +5/5 idea; it's just a restriction that I should have if I want to tackle any more lines of greater than -150; the results for 2007 have been superb.
One more word on 2007 results; while assessing my system statistics for the first half, I came to the conclusion that my numbers (at least at 60% and higher) are slightly inflated; not much, but enough so that my stats are hurting. I've come up with a simple modifier that I think will bring the numbers down?if even just a touch?and make my future results a little more accurate. It takes a bit more work but it's been kinda fun so far. I'm simply making use of the large sample of numbers that the first 80+ games has produced thus far; still using my original 'cap for 75% of the result while teams records thus far (at home vs L, at home vs R, away vs L, away vs R?an average for the two teams) comprises the other 25%. In most cases this is bringing the numbers down slightly (1 of the 6 Thursday and 10 of 15 games Friday), in a few cases this is actually raising the numbers (2 of 6 Thursday and 3 of 15 Friday), and in some cases this is leaving the numbers exactly as they are (3 of 6 Thursday and 2 of 15 Friday). To take one example, for Friday, I did my normal 'cap and got the Twins at 72% (IF Santana vs Kennedy?still not sure that this one is a Kennedy start; he's apparently in the doghouse); I took 75% of that 72% and combined it with 25% of a 52% call (A's have won 53% of their road games against lefties while the Twins have only won 45% of their home games against lefties; (adjusted) average of those 2 gives Twins 52%). The result of this combo dropped the Twins 5 points to a 67% call?most of the adjustments aren't affecting original numbers this much; this is just a particular case where it sppears an adjustment was needed. I thought about messing around further, like taking a look at starting pitcher's TEAM W-L records, at home and away, or other such things, but I think I'm going to stick with what I've got for a while and see if the numbers pan out. One final note on the Santana game; of 18 Santana starts, the Twins have won only 11 (61.1%); for his HOME starts the Twins are 4-4 (50%); you can see just how difficult it would be to try and incorporate these figures into a useful 'cap; I currently have Santana rated exactly one point higher than Peavy is currently?that is where my big number came from (72%) and I think that the A's good work on the road vs lefties SHOULD factor into my overall number, but not as greatly as the other factors?the factors which I account for with my original 'cap.
Man! I can go on about this stuff, can't I?
Looks like Thursday will be my first no-play for a while.
See you tomorrow.
GL
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