Thursday July 19th 2007
yesterday: 3-5 -3.02
July: 73-75 -2.58
ml 42-33 +0.6
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 16-18 -3.46
parlays 13-20 +0.78
system picks 1-2 yesterday; 19-12 in July (61%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 22-27 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Mil 66% (-145)+6 RL 51 (+150)+11
Cubs 66 (-159)+4 RL 51 (+125)+6
Fla 56 (-158)-6 cin 44 (+150)+4
col 60 (-105)+8
Atl 65 (-180)even
Sd 61 (-119)+6
Lad 57 (-121)+2
laa 58 (-159)-4
Nyy 71 (-222)+2 RL 58 (-109)+5
det 62 (-117)+8
Bost 64 (-201)-3
clev 60 (-150)even
system totals
stl@Atl un9 67% (-105)+15 --ump N/A
phil@Sd un7 68 (-110)+15 --ump N/A
No breaks at all, yesterday. A few poor selections thrown in there to boot. Progressed an IF play to the 5th game; that was about my day's highlite. Back-to-back 6-9 days for system sides is bringing July's record to something a little more reasonable (was up near 65% near the all-star break?Wednesday's 6-9 makes system sides 126-84 for July, which is 60% exactly?that's pretty good for ALL games). System picks at 1-4 the past 2 days has really slowed my progress. Needed one of Rangers or Mets to turn that frown (minus) upside down. If I stick with the few selections that I like for Thursday then I might be able to get back in black.
Hopped on the Brewers early, kinda suspecting that line would go up (I see it at -156 now?just barely a system pick at that number (66%, +5 V.I.). Brewers bats haven't really been smokin' during this homestand, and I figure that they'll need a decent game from Gallardo to bag this one, so I'm not pounding it. Cubs with a bit of value but not quite a system pick like they were yesterday; kinda pricey, so I don't know what to do with this one; runline looks like a possibility the way the Cubs managed to produce without 2 key bats in the lineup (Lee and Ramirez); Ramirez was just resting but big stick Lee will miss this one due to suspension; Morris has been pretty bad for 2 straight starts ('course, Maddux was shitty for 3 straight and look what he did to the Mets). Reds may beat the unpredictable Marlins but there's not enough value there for me to try a 44% call; Belisle is coming off a solid outting but they're rare for him. Rockies look like maybe the play of the day; Jimenez is a top prospect who's been doing solid work at Triple-A this season; Chico chucked 3 beauties in a row before being pummelled in his last; Rockies bats have really picked it up vs lefties?at the end of May they were OPS .682 vs lefties but now they're up near .770; Rockies poor road winning % a concern (.419 ASB) but it's still higher than Nats home winning % (.413 ASB); Rockies the edge at SP and with the sticks; the only place that the Rockies don't have an edge here is, maybe, in the bullpen. Padres are a play for me, today; as Padres edge at starter is greater than the Phillies edge with the sticks; Padres OPS vs lefties is about 100 points higher than it is vs righties, too, so offensive advantage is much less than you might think for this one. Tigers I like about as much as the Rockies; both with +8 V.I. and Rocks are a bit cheaper so the greater ROI exists there; Tigers call 2% higher so I'm guessing that an ROI evaluation will show the 2 plays to be pretty equal. I'll test that theory out once I finish rambling on here. The total in Atlanta is questionable as Maroth often gets pounded, though the Cards have a solid pen to back him up if he' semi-decent (Braves OPS vs lefties about 30 points lower than against righties); Hudson has been phenomenal in 4 of his past 6 starts and faces a fairly tame?yet occassionally explosive?offense; I might spectate as my totals are garbage lately. Philly-San Diego is more likely to stay low-scoring, but maybe not to bag an under 7; I still like this the better of the 2, as Young's 0.82 era at Petco is a thing to behold; if Padres had scored him a few more runs this season then I'd say he'd be in line for the NL Cy; Penny still might be his only competition for the award at this point in the season, what with Jake Peavy now apparently nursing some kind of ailment. Rambled on long enough?let me submit this before doing that system pick assessment.
yesterday: 3-5 -3.02
July: 73-75 -2.58
ml 42-33 +0.6
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 16-18 -3.46
parlays 13-20 +0.78
system picks 1-2 yesterday; 19-12 in July (61%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 22-27 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Mil 66% (-145)+6 RL 51 (+150)+11
Cubs 66 (-159)+4 RL 51 (+125)+6
Fla 56 (-158)-6 cin 44 (+150)+4
col 60 (-105)+8
Atl 65 (-180)even
Sd 61 (-119)+6
Lad 57 (-121)+2
laa 58 (-159)-4
Nyy 71 (-222)+2 RL 58 (-109)+5
det 62 (-117)+8
Bost 64 (-201)-3
clev 60 (-150)even
system totals
stl@Atl un9 67% (-105)+15 --ump N/A
phil@Sd un7 68 (-110)+15 --ump N/A
No breaks at all, yesterday. A few poor selections thrown in there to boot. Progressed an IF play to the 5th game; that was about my day's highlite. Back-to-back 6-9 days for system sides is bringing July's record to something a little more reasonable (was up near 65% near the all-star break?Wednesday's 6-9 makes system sides 126-84 for July, which is 60% exactly?that's pretty good for ALL games). System picks at 1-4 the past 2 days has really slowed my progress. Needed one of Rangers or Mets to turn that frown (minus) upside down. If I stick with the few selections that I like for Thursday then I might be able to get back in black.
Hopped on the Brewers early, kinda suspecting that line would go up (I see it at -156 now?just barely a system pick at that number (66%, +5 V.I.). Brewers bats haven't really been smokin' during this homestand, and I figure that they'll need a decent game from Gallardo to bag this one, so I'm not pounding it. Cubs with a bit of value but not quite a system pick like they were yesterday; kinda pricey, so I don't know what to do with this one; runline looks like a possibility the way the Cubs managed to produce without 2 key bats in the lineup (Lee and Ramirez); Ramirez was just resting but big stick Lee will miss this one due to suspension; Morris has been pretty bad for 2 straight starts ('course, Maddux was shitty for 3 straight and look what he did to the Mets). Reds may beat the unpredictable Marlins but there's not enough value there for me to try a 44% call; Belisle is coming off a solid outting but they're rare for him. Rockies look like maybe the play of the day; Jimenez is a top prospect who's been doing solid work at Triple-A this season; Chico chucked 3 beauties in a row before being pummelled in his last; Rockies bats have really picked it up vs lefties?at the end of May they were OPS .682 vs lefties but now they're up near .770; Rockies poor road winning % a concern (.419 ASB) but it's still higher than Nats home winning % (.413 ASB); Rockies the edge at SP and with the sticks; the only place that the Rockies don't have an edge here is, maybe, in the bullpen. Padres are a play for me, today; as Padres edge at starter is greater than the Phillies edge with the sticks; Padres OPS vs lefties is about 100 points higher than it is vs righties, too, so offensive advantage is much less than you might think for this one. Tigers I like about as much as the Rockies; both with +8 V.I. and Rocks are a bit cheaper so the greater ROI exists there; Tigers call 2% higher so I'm guessing that an ROI evaluation will show the 2 plays to be pretty equal. I'll test that theory out once I finish rambling on here. The total in Atlanta is questionable as Maroth often gets pounded, though the Cards have a solid pen to back him up if he' semi-decent (Braves OPS vs lefties about 30 points lower than against righties); Hudson has been phenomenal in 4 of his past 6 starts and faces a fairly tame?yet occassionally explosive?offense; I might spectate as my totals are garbage lately. Philly-San Diego is more likely to stay low-scoring, but maybe not to bag an under 7; I still like this the better of the 2, as Young's 0.82 era at Petco is a thing to behold; if Padres had scored him a few more runs this season then I'd say he'd be in line for the NL Cy; Penny still might be his only competition for the award at this point in the season, what with Jake Peavy now apparently nursing some kind of ailment. Rambled on long enough?let me submit this before doing that system pick assessment.
