Thursday July 5th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday July 5th 2007

yesterday: 10-4 +3.56
July: 27-25 -1.91
ml 13-13 -3.91
rl 1-1 +0.5
totals 11-10 -1.00
parlays 2-1 +2.50
system picks 3-0 yesterday; 13-5 the past 6 days (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-0 yesterday; 9-4 in July and 21-8 the past 9 days

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mil 63% (-128)+6
Sd 67 (-242)-4 RL 52 (-104)+1
cubs 52 (-127)-4
Cin 55 (-120)even
Stl 52 (-125)-4
mets 61 (-113)+7
Lad 55 (-130)-2
Det 55 (-108)+3
Nyy 56 (-155)-5
Bost 80 (-230)+10 RL 68 (-111)+15
balt 53 (+103)+3
laa 65 (-159)+3
Oak 64 (-135)+6

system totals

fla@Sd un7.5 68% (-125)+12 --Holbrook is a slight over-ump; pass here
cubs@Wash un8 65 (-106)+13 --Kellogg a slight over-ump; pass here
atl@Lad un7 70 (+105)+21 --Cuzzi is a decent under-ump


Yesterday sure could have been better; I hit the Mets (oops) or the Angels (fockers) and I'm up for July. As it is I'll need Thursday to pull that off. Went 3-2 on the moneyline, 1-1 on the runline (stupid Padres runline is forever a joke), 5-0 on totals, and 1-1 on my parlays. System sides went 9-6 overall; that 60% actually drops system sides to 62% winners for July (36-22); I'll take it; things are looking up. System totals are continuing their hot June with a 9-4 mark in July. Things are working, I just have to find a way to keep away from these dog starts that some quality pitcher's are having (Orlando still has me shaking my head). Looking for a third straight winning day to get rid of that minus for July?

I'm considering the Brewers, Mets, Bosox runline, and the A's. Brewers will likely have a game on their hands, facing Gorzelanny here, but the Brewers are still the best in the Bigs against lefties (OPS .853 and are currently leading the Majors in runs scored off lefties); Brewers aren't the best road team?and the Pirates have been good at home in years past?so this isn't one to pound; I still think that Sheets should be in line for a W here. Mets are a scary proposition currently, but I'll take a shot with Maine here; the price is right and Jennings will likely need some help from the Astros bullpen, which is one of the worst in baseball. I actually had the Bosox game 'capped HIGHER than 80%, but I really don't have a category for that (not that that matters) and I'm thinking that an 80% call should be near maximum for any game on the diamond; even the crappiest teams can beat the best ones on any given day; runline will likely be in play for me. A's get the definite edge at starter Thursday PLUS they get to stay home while the M's travel PLUS we have two teams doing opposite work at the plate lately?Mariners OPS the last 7 days is a lowly .639 while the A's OPS the last 7 days is .891, which is the highest in MLB over that period; a bit pricey so again not worth pounding.

I'm only left with one system total, today, after 2 get eliminated by umpires. I'm kind of wary of the Dodgers good production at home (actually only .743 OPS, but that's higher than their road OPS)?not to mention the Braves good production on the road (OPS .783)?but I like Cuzzi behind the plate for my unders?he's been a good under-ump for years now (always a high K%). Under 7 is tough but Hudson has been superb in 3 of his past 4 and I currently have the Dodgers Penny rated the highest of any starting pitcher. I'll be getting at least a piece?probably one to 1.5 units. After my 5-0 on totals yesterday I might be wise to look into some other options, including team totals (went 2-0 there yesterday).

Glad to be a part of this number.
Will post what's played.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Geez...just learned it's Doug Eddings behind home plate for the Indians-Tigers matchup.

System call is 55% UNDER the 8, but Eddings will give that a bonus as he's a super under-ump.

I can easily give a 10% bonus for Eddings, so this one becomes a system total. Gives me 2 on the day.

These clubs can score, so I was going to leave this one alone, especially as Verlander BOTH is coming off a bad start AND has been poor vs the Indians before.
Eddings is about as good as they come for under-umps, however, so this will become a play for me.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't it always seem to go...that you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone.

Don't it always seem to go...that you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone.

PLAYS

system picks

mets -113 1.69/1.5
Bosox -1.5 -111 1.66/1.5

other picks

brewers -125 1.25/1
Padres -1.5 -104 1.04/1
A's -135 1.35/1

totals

atl@Lad un7 +105 1/1.05
clev@Det un8 -120 1.2/1

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Bosox ml
+103
1.45/1.5


There should be no surprises in my plays, based on what I've stated previosuly. Taking a shot with the Mets again as they did score 7 yesterday. That Eddings total (at Comerica) looks sweet; I just have a hard time laying too much coin on totals; not sure why as my results have been pretty darn good for totals. Got a break with the Bosox-Padres parlay yesterday, and I think that they're the 2 safest sides today, so I'm going to give it another go here. A fairly quiet day (for me) overall, but I think I've got enough action to warrant a plus 2 units on the day, which would get me off the minus side for July. Small expectations; the greater ones will have to wait for this weekend.

I've done Friday and I'm expecting that the lines should present some value. Brewers will have their weak link in Bush tossing, but they again get to face a lefty (Bacsik) and should be able to outscore the pitiful Nats tomorrow; at -150 I might try for a unit but we might see a line higher than that. Reds bats have been good lately, and I look for them to take down the slumping D'Backs Friday (Lohse vs a rather cold Owings); Reds lines have been decent due to their crappy record so we'll likely get a -120 to -130; this one might be a system pick, in that range, if either the Reds win or the D'Backs lose Thursday. Giants will have a rather hot Lowry going for them at St. Louis (vs Maroth) and I'll be all over the G-men if we see a line near even money. Rockies line I'm especially curious to see, as I'll have them as a huge favorite over the visiting Phillies Friday (Francis v Kendrick); Rockies seem to have gotten the attention of the linesmakers, and their work against the Mets probably won't go unnoticed too, so I'm expecting that we'll have to lay the juice to play Colorado here; I'd love to see it as low as -140, but it may be up closer to -160 for this one; at that higher price I would still try for a unit. Dodgers will toss Billingsley, who finally chucked a (real) good good game his last time out; he's done good work vs Marlins before, too; as for his opponent Willis, well, he's been roughed up by the Dodgers on more than one occasion; Lad might see a decent line here (maybe -120 to -130) and I'll likely take a shot with them, but I'll like it better if the Dodgers can beat the Braves Thursday or, at the very least, if the Marlins drop their game at San Diego (which is likely vs Peavy). In the AL, the Twins Baker has already been pounded on by the Chisox once this season, and despite his better work lately I'll look for the Chisox (with the hot Garland) to take the opener in that series (Twins bats, despite 2 productive games at Yankee Stadium, have gone into the tank lately); I'm hoping for no more than -120ish there. Jays will get a favorable matchup in their opener with the Indians; Lee has been hurt by the Jays before while Halladay has owned the Indians in his career so far; Halladay prices are pretty high, it seems, but up to -150 and this should still be a system pick; Jays with the day off, too, while the Indians have a tough one to finish at Detroit. I'm getting kinda sick of losing money with the D'Rays, but I'll like them to take the opener at KC in this Shields-Perez matchup; the way the D'Rays have tanked lately, and the way the Royals have picked things up, we should see a reasonable line; I'll likely try these losers if the line is -120 or better. A's also look good for Friday, in their second game with the M's; Haren vs Weaver is a mismatch, despite Weaver's improvements; the line will likely be -160 to -180 for the A's, judging by today's line, so there really won't be any value in that one. The best looking over might be in Cincinnati while the best looking under might be that game in Oakland; need to see the numbers and what little umpire info we can.

That's all for Thursday.
GL

 

[Riskbreaker]

here we go GL

 

[gsp]

I would rate Cuzzi going over tonight at about 65%. He's 8-6 over on the year but there's other things with this crew that calls for the over. He's coming off two under and hasn't gone three unders all year. Another thing is 4-0 on the season calling for the over in this situation, another is 4-2 calling for the over. Just thought you might be interested. Good luck