Thursday June 14th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday June 14th 2007

yesterday: 1-2 -2.15
June: 86-82 -5.80
ml 37-29 -7.21
rl 5-7 -7.22
totals 36-24 +16.95
parlays 8-22 -8.32

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

sd 60% (-102)+9
Cin 56 (+120)+10
Nyy 58 (-245)-14 ariz 42 (+227)+11
mil 57 (-102)+6
Hou 51 (-110)-2
Cubs 63 (-148)+3
Fla 67 (-140)+8 RL 53 (+150)+13
Bost 67 (-197)even RL 53 (+106)+4
Pitt 62 (Gorzelanny-McCarthy)
Balt 62 (-186)-4
stl 51 (-107)-1
Min 62 (-173)-2

system totals

stl@Kc ov10.5 68% (-116)+14 --Carlson a bit of an UNDER-ump (incl. 8-4 this year)


I don't like missing the high system number of the day?it was Bosox at 75% yesterday?not even friggin' close. Apparently a joke of a call. System sides looking at about a 7-7 so far, with the late one pending; pretty much a joke?I think to just play favorites right now and you'd be hitting better than system sides are going. This is very frustrating. I don't know if it's just Interleague or if lots of goofy things are happening or WHAT. I knew I should have played that Indians-Marlins game over. I suck, right now. Buyer Beware!

Today's board appeals to me about as much as yesterday's; not very much. Marlins still smoking lefties (.828 OPS vs L) and should get a break facing Stanford in this one; I'm not expecting much from him here. Willis should at least keep them in the game (Indians OPS vs L .774). I might also take chances on the Padres, Reds, and Brewers, as all 3 lines are currently inviting. I think I'll keep trying the Reds Bailey until he throws up a stinker. Padres line I really don't understand (Padres OPS vs L .757; they're only .677 vs R). Brewers will have a shot in any game with Sheets going; he's particularly hot right now; Tigers Durbin average, at best, and Tigers bullpen still in some disarray.

I don't know about the posted total; umpire kind of kills that idea.

Here's hoping I can create a winning STREAK; fork this win one day and lose for 3 BS.
I'm gonna 'cap this weekend's games; I could use as much preparation as possible the way things are going for me.

Will post what's played.
GL

 

[AMG]

Appreciate the info, thank you

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks AMG.

------------------------------------------------------------

umpire alert in the Injuns-Marlins game.

It will be Doug Eddings.

He's the best under-ump going currently.

I just don't know about Stanford keeping the Marlins bats at bay, here.
Like I mentioned...828 OPS vs L.
Tribe aren't too bad at .774, too.

Willis not having a great season.

Tough call.

He's one umpire I'd try an under play on, just because he's him.

System call is 52% OVER the 9.5, but that's without an umpire bonus.

Maybe an under call of between 55-65%.
:shrug:

At -115 there's negligable to moderate value.

Anybody have any current news on this 30-year-old has-been (or, more aptly, 'never-was')?
Stanford last pitched in the big leagues in 2004.

I think an under play here might be wasted money.

Marlins line sure has some value, though.
I trust the 67% call on the Marlins more than, say, a 60% call on the under.

Will try and hope.

Wish I had some info on Willis games ump'ed by Eddings.
If anybody knows where I can get them then please chime in.

:SIB

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Thanks AMG.

------------------------------------------------------------


Wish I had some info on Willis games ump'ed by Eddings.
If anybody knows where I can get them then please chime in.

:SIB

from the site thats opposit unders with a c in front

dontrelle with eddings:

Date Home - Road Home Starter Road Starter Line Result O/U
8/2/05 STL 3 - FLA 1 C. Carpenter D. Willis -167/7 Home U
7/19/04 NYM 5 - FLA 6 S. Erickson D. Willis 115/8 Road O
8/6/03 STL 3 - FLA 7 D. Haren D. Willis 100/8 Road O

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, BDB.

I use them for my umpire info, but I haven't seen any ump-pitcher combos there this season. I must not be looking in the right place.

(pause 47.5 seconds...)

I found it; it's under their game matchups.

Thanks again.


2-1 OVERS in Eddings-Willis games.
Marlins have won 2 of 3.
All 3 with Marlins on the road.

I think I'm gonna stick to my guns.

I believe that Stanford is a good candidate to get lit up, regardless of the Eddings factor.

:SIB

 

[IE]

It was a revelation on par with the end of a Scooby Doo episode.....




Just who is that mystery starter behind the mask?

Why, it's Jason Stanford, the man who'll take the hill for Cleveland on Thursday!

After a few days of tight lips, Indians manager Eric Wedge finally tipped his hand Wednesday, announcing that Stanford will be called up from Triple-A Buffalo to start the Indians' series finale with the Marlins on Thursday. He takes the place of Jeremy Sowers, who was optioned to Buffalo earlier this week.

Stanford made 15 appearances -- 10 starts -- with the Indians in 2003 and 2004, going 1-4 with a 3.10 ERA. He has not appeared in the big leagues since that season.

Stanford went 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA for Buffalo last season, and is 4-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 2007. In 68 2/3 innings this season, the left-hander has allowed 62 hits and 25 walks while striking out 43.

"He's done a pretty good job down there for the most part," Wedge said. "It's a good opportunity for him and hopefully he gives us a chance to win a ballgame."

Stanford's name was expected for of couple reasons. Adam Miller and Brian Slocum, the Tribe's two top options at Buffalo, are both on the disabled list. Thursday's game also coincides with Stanford's spot in Buffalo's rotation. He last pitched on June 9, picking up a no-decision against Richmond after allowing five hits, four walks and two runs in five innings.

The major consideration with Stanford is that he's out of Major League options. That means that if the Indians wanted to send him down after this start, he'd be exposed to waivers.

Wedge said the club hasn't made a decision about Stanford's status after this outing, but he made it sound unlikely that Stanford would stay with the Cleveland bullpen to avoid waivers.

"He's been a starter all year," Wedge said. "It's not something we've talked about."

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, IE.

Good stuff.

Marlins should cash 4-6 here, I would think.

That should be enough with Willis going, especially if he gets into a good rhythm with Eddings, who's always happy to call strikes if they're close.

Go Marlins!

(all I got so far)

:SIB

 

[IE]

not totally sold on willis, showed exteme weakness last start off high pitch count (122/32 batters faced) going on 4 days rest..

kids one shot for indians, will be pumped......early innings will be telling

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

sweep?

sweep?

I hear ya, IE.
I'm not pounding it; just trying a couple of units (is my big play, so far, mind you).
----------------------------------------------------------

Yanks Pettitte has been pretty bad in his career vs D'Backs (1-5, 5.01 era), but has done his best work this year in day games (day era 2.11, night era 3.45).

...and D'Backs REALLY aren't hitting lefties (OPS .679).

Yanks OPS vs L has creeped up, lately, now at .768.

Pettitte has cooled off his past 2, but against clubs (Pitt & Bosox) that hit BETTER vs lefties than righties; not the case today, with the D'Backs, who loathe facing lefties.

Davis didn't have a good time in his last, at home vs Bosox.
He's 3-1 lifetime vs NYY, but with a 6.08 era.

I think that the D'Backs best chance to take a game was either Tuesday or Wednesday, and those weren't really close.

Grabbing a piece of the runline.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

on fishy fishy fishy fish

on fishy fishy fishy fish

I don't have Willis rated that high right now, at all.
The big number is mostly due to Fishy work vs lefties and facing a career minor-leaguer here.
SP edge HAS to go to the Marlins.
Edge to Indians pen, but it's not huge.
Indians looked horrible against the last lefty they faced (Olsen).

Willis should be fine for 6 or 7.
Hopefully the pen doesn't blow it (if it is in).

:com:

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Boston

in Boston

I'm stuck on this game, right now.

I feel like a total square; I'm tempted by Bosox.

Too pricey...totally no value.

Small runline play, maybe.

System call is under the 9 at 56%.
Not a great call. Pretty low.
-124 or -125 line makes it about an even play (VI 0).

Rockies under 4 was a thought, but I'm passing at -135; probably smart the way the Rocks t'eed off on Schilling yesterday.:com:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

lost in happiness I knew no fears. innocence and love was all I knew. Was An Illusi

lost in happiness I knew no fears. innocence and love was all I knew. Was An Illusi

PLAYS

system picks

padres -102 1.02/1
Reds +125 1/1.25
Marlins -140 2.8/2

other picks

Nyy -1.5 -114 1.14/1
brewers -102 1.02/1
Cubs -1.5 +140 0.71/1
Bosox -1.5 +106 0.73/0.77

totally pass on totals

2-teamer
--Marlins ml
--Bosox ml
+153
0.65/1


I guess that's a wrap. I'd like to say that I'm feeling very confident right now, but that would be @$&$*%@#!!!.
I'll be thrilled by any small non-minus on the day. That would be special.

See you tomorrow.
GL