Thursday June 21st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday June 21st 2007

yesterday: 4-4 -0.56
June: 124-121 -2.75
ml 59-45 +2.77
rl 10-11 -6.01
totals 45-33 +16.27
parlays 10-32 -15.78
system picks 3-2 yesterday; now 112-68 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
(Rockies were a +10 V.I. at the +142 I got (52% call))
system totals 2-1 yesterday; now 50-30 for June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

cubs 51% (-124)-5
nyy 63 (-182)-2
balt 55 (+109)+7
Tor 63 (-129)+6
Seat 59 (-185)-6

system totals

cubs@Tex ov10.5 70% (+106)+21 --Hoye is a decent over-ump including 8-4 this year
balt@Sd un7.5 66 (-117)+12 --ump Froemming is even; slight under-lean, if anything
pitt@Seat un9 67 (-116)+13 --ump Hallion is even


Yesterday could have been better. I suppose I should have had more on the Rockies and less on the Mets?isn't hindsight great? At least the Tigers and Jays kept me from sinking too far. System sides went 10-5 on the day overall, giving a 4-day record of 37-18 (67.2% winners), so maybe my system can handle interleague after all; I haven't dominated, but have picked up more than 10 units over the 4 days. System totals 2-1 yesterday, missing the loser by a single run (@Turner).

Today's board is grim.
Orioles and Jays have some value and I'm on each for just a piece. Yanks and M's are tempting (like on a parlay?) but way too expensive relative to likelihood of winning...unless you think my numbers are too low. I almost played the Yanks on the runline, and still might, small; look at batter vs pitcher and you see a good deal of success by Yanks vs Lopez; liked the Yanks team total over until I saw it at 6. Cubs-Rangers game is up-for-grabs if you ask me.
Totals might be a little more appealing; Rangers smoking lefties?finally (OPS vs L .817?was only .745 to end May, so they have really picked it up vs lefties in June)?and I think that Lilly is on the downslide, after a pretty solid start to the year. Bedard should do his thing fine, at Petco, but Wells is a question mark for that under; Orioles AND Padres hitting lefties better than righties (O's .740 vs L and only .698 vs R; Padres .762 vs L and only .700 vs R), again putting some stress on an under-call; ump helps a little, with Froemming, but still?Wells hasn't been that great, this season. Orioles line might be the better play. Pirates might be shut down by Hernandez, considering they couldn't hit Weaver, but Van Benschoten is the question mark for this under; fairly highly touted, by the Pirates organization, at least, but still a risky rookie; he was decent in his first of '07, vs the Chisox (who isn't, at least, "decent" vs the Chisox?), but only pitched 5 innings (3 hits, 2 er) and took the loss?another reflection of how much the Pirates are scoring this year. M's call is under 60% (59%) as Felix really hasn't been sharp lately and there is only a small edge to M's bats in this matchup?didn't look like it yesterday though, did it?

Be back later to post my action.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Ameriquest

at Ameriquest

Lilly may be 4-4 career against the Rangers (era 3.34), but
he's only 1-3 at Ameriquest Field (era 4.26).

I don't think I can risk money on Padilla, here, but I think that the Rangers can knock around Lilly some, so I tend to agree with the system call on the OVER.

Lilly's career day starts have been less productive than his night starts, too.
He was good in his last, against the Padres (big challenge, there) but just crushed in his 3 prior (full) starts.

Interestingly, Padilla has an era of 6.57, but at home has an era of 3.93.
Rangers have lost his last 2 home starts and 3 of his past 4.
He's surrendured 32 hits over his past 12+ innings, spanning his past 3 starts (vs M's, Brewers, and Reds).
Cubs bats may do more damage in this one than they did yesterday...if Rangers can get near the 7 they got yesterday than this one should go over...probably a 5or6 by the Rangers is more likely. I can get Rangers over 5 for -120, but as I figure that this game is up for grabs, a Cubs over 5.5 -105 play has similar value to the Rangers over.
I get the Cubs at +10 and the Rangers +6 for this matchup.
i.e. both clubs offenses should dominate the pitching, to a degree.

Umpire Hoye has a fairly small strike zone, which helps (always low K%), and he is 8-4 on the over this season.

I guess I'm sold. I prefer my under plays, but I think my overs are doing quite well because of it. Just as I type that I remember that yesterday I hit an under and missed an over.

Regardless...I'm on the over for a unit.

:SIB

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

Thanks X. Good luck to you too!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

what a freakin' moron I am

I'm just updating yesterday's SP's and I see that Phil Cuzzi was behind the plate for Pirates-M's...NEVER would I play a game OVER the total with Cuzzi behind the plate.

I only checked out the umps for the system calls.
(this wasn't)
Was too lazy to check out the umps for my own gardarned plays.

Flippin' stupid.

Woulda saved me some coin.

:com:

:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Out here on the perimeter there are no stars. Out here we is stoned...immaculate!

Out here on the perimeter there are no stars. Out here we is stoned...immaculate!

PLAYS

orioles +109 1.3/1.42
Blue Jays -129 2.58/2

cubs@Tex ov10.5 +106 1/1.06


I can't pull the trigger on the Yankees, runline or whatever; Rockies will be pumped up to try and sweep, no doubt, and there's really just no value, as likely as it might be that the Yanks win?63% is kinda high, but -182 is higher; Yanks not scoring enough in this series to warrant a runline play. M's looks like a worse option, though Felix may look good for a change, here; Pirates sticks pretty pathetic, especially yesterday. VBen, for Pitt, may save any under players, but it seems too risky to me. I'll stick with my one over, and hope that Lilly sucks enough to pull it off?not to mention Padilla (you did catch that earlier, aye?...32 hits surrendured over his past 12+ IP).
Jays Marcum has been rock-solid, and I don't know if Billingsley can be trusted as a starter, though he's done solid work out of the pen this year; Dodgers used some long relief yesterday and I'm not sure how much they can expect to squeeze out of Billinglsey; Jays seem a smart call after their rebound yesterday.
Orioles Bedard has been superb but has lacked run support. Orioles scored a bunch yesterday (7 on 12 hits; though they only scored in 2 frames?3 in the 1st and 4 in the 8th), and prefer facing lefties, so maybe that can get Bedard enough here. Wells seems washed up, though I'm sure he still has a few good games left in him; hopefully not here.

Looking forward to Friday's board more than today's.
Got a number of large calls on games that are probably going to be too expensive (Indians, Brewers, D'Backs, Angels), though the Angels I may try at less than -200 (as if) or maybe on the runline (Weaver-Duke matchup).
My early tip for Friday would be to grab the Phillies in their opener with the Cardinals; I think (or at least HOPE) that a -120 to -140 is about all the juice it will cost. My expectation is that Moyer will baffle the Cardinals (OPS vs L .685) just enough and that the Phillies (OPS vs R .805) will do the two-step on Reyasses already lofty era (6.34?oh?and he's 0-8).
Prediction: Phillies 7, Cardinals 3.

See you tomorrow.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

before I close my Word document...
might as well show it, as bad as June has been.

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?....April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total.452-335..203-165...249-170?144-125
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13??11-11
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10??11-8
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10??9-9
54??...28-24?..14-8......14-16??10-11
55??...24-26?..9-12??.15-14??10-9
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12??5-10
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11??6-3
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5??..11-5
59??...26-20?..11-11?..15-9??..8-2
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12??3-6
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8??..5-3
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10??5-8
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8??..8-12
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6??..7-4
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9??..6-3
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5??..8-4
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6???2-2
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1???3-1
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2???2-2
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1???4-3
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0???4-2
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1???0-1
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0???1-0
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0???0-1
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1???1-1
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???0-1
77??...0-0??...0-0??..0-0???2-0
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???1-1
79??...0-0???0-0??..0-0??...0-1
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0??...1-1
totals..106-94..45-53?..61-41?..50-30
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.


I'm not so worried about 50's, for June, as they're performing okay, especially the important ones--the high 50's. 57-59 is actually 25-10 in June (71.4% winners) so they're outperforming their quotas.

I get into serious trouble when I hit 60.
60, 62, 63, 67, and 69 are all trouble spots in June, while most of them performed to their quotas for April and May.
70+, as well, are only 14-12 (53.8% winners) in June, which is a disgrace to my system; they went 23-3 in May (88.4% winners) and (ugh!) 7-8 (46.6% winners) in April. That's a 2007 total of 44-23 (65.6% winners); I need to hit like 8 of the next 10 to get that number respectable.

I need July to be more like May in order to resolve some of these issues with system sides. Might happen; interleague won't be as prevalent.

System totals, at least, are sparkling this month, at a solid 50-30 (62.5% winners). Very encouraging after May's 61-41 (59.8% winners). I wasn't sure if the system would be reliable for totals but the results are certainly there.

System picks, for sides (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) went a phenomenal 52-23 in May (69.3% winners) but are only 30-25 (54.5% winners) for June.
112-68 (for 2007) is 62.2% winners.
I wish that I could tell you the average LINE for system picks, but that would take me some work to figure out. There have been several juice-laden calls, some of which have missed, but there has also been some dog calls and a lot of calls on games at -140 or better. I don't keep a +/- for system picks as I vary my bets based on how I'm performing and how confident I am in the calls.

The bottom line is whether or not I am posting winners. In May I cruised but June is seeing me struggle to stay even. I think that July is going to be very telling for my season as a whole; if I get up early I am going to become very confident in system calls and aggressively pursue what value presents itself.

Of course...finishing June strong would be a bonus.
Still 10 days left; time to salvage a rough month.
System sides were at .500, at 107-107, so they HAVE gone 37-18 the past 4 days.
Just need to Keep On Chooglin'.

Go Blue Jays!

:SIB

 

[Regular Joe]

Thanks for the early texas over winner!
Got some lunch money now. Good luck on the rest.

"Joe"