Thursday May 24th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday May 24th 2007

yesterday: 4-5 +1.86
May: 134-101 +34.01
ml 76-40 +23.12
rl 8-10 -2.09
totals 33-29 +2.79
parlays 17-22 +10.19
system picks now 66-37 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Stl 54% (-125)-2
Fla 57 (-114)+3
Cin 57 (-148)-3
Atl 58 (-135)even
hou 55 (+101)+5
cubs 52 (+125)+7
Det 65 (-152)+4
Tb 51 (+106)+2
Balt 54 (-117)even
Kc 55 (+120)+9

system totals

pitt@Stl un8 69% (-115)+15 --Scott is an even-ump but 7-3 UNDERS this season
mets@Atl un8 68 (+100)+18 --Carlson is a good under-ump
cubs@Sd un7 67 (+105)+18 --Drake historically even; is 7-3 UNDERS this season
laa@Det un9 69 (+105)+20 --Kellogg is more of an over-ump, including 7-2 this season


Happy to turn another plus yesterday, but it could have been much sweeter; Chisox stinker was a 9.5 unit swing for me?woulda cashed a nice 4-teamer and a straight wager if they had shown up (I didn't think Gaudin would be as good pitching away from the friendly confines of McAfee Coliseum); Mets was a nice call?line was way off for that one.

Today's board is gross. I think I might concentrate on getting ready for the weekend and not waste to much time on these slim pickin's. System calls the Cubs as a fave as they have the edge at the plate, especially with Derek Lee back in the fold. System also likes the Astros, D'Rays, and Royals as dogs. I can't play on Seo?forget that. Astros and Royals might be worth a try; neither looks exactly promising?that's the chance I take on a 55%, I guess.

Got a bit of umpire help on 3 out of 4 system totals; tough to go under 7 but Marquis could recover his early-season form by facing the weak Padres; Young will have his work cut out for him, but the Cubbies have only managed to score 1 run in each of the first two games. Under might be worth a shot at Turner; Smoltz was brilliant in his last and Glavine has been consistently good all season. Looper was poor in his last, but Pirates shouldn't pose much of a challenge; good game by Gorzelanny and this one probably stays under (Cards OPS vs lefties only .650; Pirates vs righties only .662). No way I can play the under in Detroit, after what they did yesterday (8-7 final); umpire information kills the call, anyway.

Today will be light.

Be back later to post my plays.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Reds suck.

Tempted by the Nationals.

Nats 43% (+140)+1

Hard to say if Bacsik can repeat his last performance (6 shutout IP).
Was against Orioles, at home (O's .730 OPS vs lefties).

Now in a hiiter's park (Reds .721 OPS vs lefties).

Belisle has given up 20 hits over his past 10.2 IP.
Includes surrenduring 7 ER at pitcher-friendly Petco.
Might be a good time to fade him.

Nats just scored 12 yesterday.

Tempting.
:shrug:
(I don't play enough dogs)

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wow.
Looper's been perfect in day games for the last couple of years (includes 4-0 in 4 starts this year, era 1.38).
vs Pirates he's 1-1 1.60 era in 33.2 IP.
Pirates .662 OPS vs righties.

Gorzelanny's been brilliant in day games, also.
His only other game at Busch Stadium was April 17th (8.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 er, W6-1).
He's 1-0 in 2 lifeftime starts vs Cards, both this season, with an 0.59 era and 0.72 whip (15.1 IP).
Cards .650 OPS vs lefties.
Cards .676 OPS at home (was .771 last season).

Very tough call on the side.
Slight lean Cards.
Agree with the 54% (no value at the 56-break-even -125).

Under is tempting beyond description.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Just for fun...

nats W 43%

nats +1.5 58% (-146)-2

Not worth playing that one.


Royals W 55%

KC +1.5 70% (-131)+13

That one looks good.
However if the Indians win they could very well win by 2.

I don't know if I'll need the run.

I don't know if KC 55% is reasonable.
:shrug:
:scared
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

System call is 63% under the 9 in Florida.

I'd like to try it, but these two clubs can really light up the scoreboard.

Phillies .738 OPS vs lefties.
Have only hit Willis at .226 in 18 vs him.

Marlins .764 OPS vs righties.
.765 at home.
Have hit .282 vs Lieber in more than 150 IP.
Lieber 3.26 era on the road this year.

I dunno.

Was at 8.5 a few hours ago...get an extra half-run.

Rick Reed is about as even as it gets, for an umpire (no affect).

I dunno...24 hits in yesterday's game, including 9 extra-base hits.

Spectator

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Baltimore

in Baltimore

Mike Winters has always been a fairly decent under-ump.

And Guthrie has been outstanding as a starter this season; he had an easy time shutting down the Nats, in his last, but shutting down the Bosox in his previous start was very impressive.

Marcum may not be for real (probably not), but he's been pitching fabulous since becoming a starter (just 2 games...1st was no-hit ball for 6 IP).

Jays OPS vs righties only .716 this season (was .804 last year).
O's OPS vs righties .714; .746 OPS at home.

A 5-2 game yesterday, and the Jays had all their weapons in play.

McGowan is definately worse than Marcum, whether Marcum is for real or not, and the O's didn't exactly pummel McGowan.

System call is only 53% under the 8.5.
Winters should give it a small bonus.

I like it regardless of the system call.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Is it obvious that I'm more of an under-hunter than an over-man?

:shrug:

Just going with what's worked for me.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

get back

get back

PLAYS

No system picks today. Dissappointing after yesterday's Mets call (which wasn't dissappointing). Royals are real close (+9) and I didn't adjust the 55% any after their victory yesterday (sometimes do); give a bonus to 56% and it's a system pick. Try it anyway?

other sides

nationals +140 0.71/1
astros +101 0.5/0.5
cubs +125 0.8/1
Royals +119 1/1.19

totals

pitt@Stl un8 -115 1.15/1
mets@Atl un8 +110 1/1.1
cubs@Sd un7.5 -106 0.53/0.5
tor@Balt un8.5 +103 0.8/0.82


Certainly nothing worth parlaying today.
Hoping for a fourth winning day in a row.
I'm finally on some dogs!

Woof!

GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

System sides went a decent 9-6 yesterday, so here's where they stand:

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...192-121
51??...17-15?.17-15??11-8
52??...13-13?.13-13??9-8
53??...16-16?.16-16??13-8
54??...14-8?...14-8??..11-12
55??...9-12??9-12??.11-9
56??...17-4??17-4??.9-9
57??...8-6??...8-6??..15-8
58??...8-11??.8-11??7-5
59??...11-11?.11-11?...11-7
60??...12-9??12-9??.10-10
61??...10-8??10-8??.15-4
62??...10-8??10-8??.9-5
63??...13-9??13-9??.8-5
64??...7-10??7-10??.11-5
65??...10-4??10-4??.4-7
66??...9-5??...9-5??..8-3
67??...6-2??...6-2??..6-4
68??...5-4??...5-4??..3-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..3-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..3-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..3-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-1
73??...1-1??...1-1??..4-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..3-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..1-1
76??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80??...0-0--------0-0??..1-0
totals?..45-53?..45-53??43-31
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..


Overall 192-121 for May (61.3% winners).
70+ at 18-2 (90% winners!).
65-69 at 24-16 (only 60% winners).
60-64 at 53-29 (64.6% winners).

The games rated the highest (70%+) are winning, which is wonderful.
65-69 is too low as 65s are doing a horrid 4-7 (another loss with the Reds yesterday).
Low 60's are doing fine.
High 50's are doing okay, too,
as 57,58,59 are a combined 33-20 (62.2% winners).

System totals at 43-31 for May (58.1% winners) is a big improvement on April's 45-53 (45.9% winners).

I'm very pleased with the results for May.
Hopefully the final week is solid (I tanked the final week of April, after starting strong).

Gonna keep talkin' if the numbers keep rockin'.

Catcha later.

:SIB