Thursday: MEGA and SIA Dog System plays

[superbook]

SIA Dog System plays

Record YTD: 2-1 +1.65 units

Yesterday we got an easy winner with SF and we should have played the three leans: FL and TB both won and BAL lost a 1-0 game

Today's play:

Texas +135 (WSEX)

SIA has Texas at +115, every other book has the Rangers at 130 or higher.


MEGA RUNS

Record YTD: 2-0-1

Today's play:

101 OVER

Monday: Line was 85, actual total runs were 112

Tuesday: Line was 69, actual total runs were 86

Wednesday: Line was 136, actual total runs were 133 not including the Boston game which was postponed due to rain. This postponement resulted in the MEGA RUNS bet being graded a PUSH. But the BOS/TOR game was tied 1-1 in the third when the game was called; if that game had been completed the MEGA RUNS would have pushed or gone Over.



Back with some prop bets on the NY Mets game as soon as Oly gets their prop lines up.

 

[TJBELL]

Good luck superbook! on texas too! (with tampa bay). usually do not play parlays, but like these 2 pups!! hell, it's only money!

good luck to you!!!!!!!!!!

 

[bryanz]

like it so far

like it so far

my capping gives me Tex today,other leans det,cin,stl,Best:hou & sf. Thanks for the heads up, GL.

 

[superbook]

bryanz -- The SIA system gave one lean: Cincy

 

[THE HITMAN]

Superbook: I like your work with the MEGA-RUNS......seems like it can be exploited for a few weeks (days?) anyway. ........Until everyone's thoughts catch up to the line. Problem is, everyone is seing the big name pitchers getting hammered. Nothing subtle about it..........so everyone is thinking over along with us. Bet was coming in yesterday ......The rain Gods owe us one !THE HITMAN

 

[superbook]

Hitman --

Thanks.

I think that Vegas will quickly catch up to theOver/Under lines (more many Overs in the first couple of days) but perhaps we'll have a little more time on the MEGA RUNS Over.

Not that many books carry the MEGA (Oly is my only book that does) and as long as the premium is only 1-2 runs vs the sum of the totals it will be a good value.

The key to going Over on the MEGA is for the Overs to go over more than the Unders go under (does that make sense??)

For example, COL/STL went Under this afternoon but they still contributed 7 runs to the MEGA. Not bad,

It's those 1-0 games that hurt.

 

[HONUS]

Please clarify for me, I am very curious:

I believe you are looking for value from other books for the dog, compared with the line at SIA. That presumes that the SIA line is a more accurate reflection of "reality".

Do you know this for a fact? Was this a significant trend last year? How do you know the opposite isn't true, ie, the value is on the fav with SIA?

Not sure of the tone of this post, but I'm only "asking" and not "questioning".

thanks,
H

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Don't want to reply for superbook, but I think what he is doing is selecting the games that SIA ( a known dog book) "takes a position" and gives less value than other books. The system then calls for a bet on the dog at a book with the higher line. He has no historical numbers right now and is tracking it to see how it performs this year. Pretty good, so far.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Superbook: I agree with your thoughts. Olympic is the only place that I can play MEGA, too. Also, as mentioned, nice to get Tex playing and Col & Hou at home. Hit Em Hard .....THE HITMAN

 

[superbook]

HONUS --

Good questions. Let me try to answer them.

BBC is accurate in explaining the "theory" behind the system and he's also correct that I have no historical data to back it up.

I do have some antecdotal evidence based on my own observations from last season and reports from others. As posted by Nosigar in one of my threads in this forum the other day:

"I believe that SIA moves on very little money, their low limits may be an indication of that. However, in my experience with them, when they have a dog with a line less favorable than other books, they probably are right 60 - 70% of the time. FWIW."

If we can hit 60 - 70% on dogs we'll have a nice bankroll by the Fall. LOL

I don't think there is any way to obtain this kind of historical data on SIA's lines, so as BBC states I'm in the process of "test driving" the system.

That's why I'm just posting one or two plays per day even though the system might be generating several more.

Who knows if it will work? So far it's 3-1 with the only loss coming when FL gave away a game with just one out left in the game and ahead by two runs. And the leans the system have generated have done pretty well too.

The bottom line is that I'm not really sure why a book that favors dogs like SIA has a couple of dog lines each day which are out of line with the other books. I check their lines in the morning, maybe they have so many people who have bet into their overnights that the line has moved. Maybe the book is taking a position. Maybe a combination of the two.

I'd appreciate any one's thoughts on this subject but in the meantime I'll keep tracking it and hope to keep making some money.

- Jon

 

[HONUS]

Thanks for the response.

It is quite interesting. In fact, most of my total plays for the NBA are with SIA because their line seems to be different than the rest.

What type of difference do you require in order to place a wager vs a lean?

 

[superbook]

HONUS --

Personally I've been wagering the leans, as well as the plays that I've been posting here. I haven't given out most of the leans because I feel bad when other people lose money on my picks.

The "play" is when SIA has the worst odds on a dog vs the ten or so books that I compare their lines with. For example, this morning SIA had Texas at +115 which was significantly below all of the other books I checked.

Cincinnati was a "lean" because SIA's line on the Reds was lower than most of the other books but there was one book (Wagerstreet) that had the same line. And SIA's line wasn't that far out of line with the other books.

Hope this helps.

- Jon