Thursday night: S Miss @ UAB

[mjbarley]

What's the lowest total you guys have ever seen posted on a college game? Have they ever put one up in the 20s? If they put that up for this game, that's still way too many points. Each of these teams punted the ball 8 times last week, and that's against defensive powerhouses Baylor and Cal (who return 2 starters, and gave up 42 points to K St. Granted, Cal's defense may be better than I give them credit for, but a shutout? c'mon, they're not that good). UAB and S Miss both have weak offenses, and both teams rely on good defense to get the job done.

I'm not sure who wins this game, but if they put up a total of 35 or higher, then this becomes a big play for me. If I had to pick a winner, I'll say S Miss 13-10.

My only fear is how many points defense and special teams are able to score. In fact, if I was a bettin' man, I'd wager that there are more points scored by defense and special teams (returns for TD, blocked punts, that kind of thing - not FGs) than by the offenses.

Both of these offenses (S Miss especially) need to improve just to be considered poor.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I was thinking the same thing. If the total comes out at 35 like you said, it is a big play. Special teams will be the deciding factor on the total. Going to look into both teams kickers, etc......

HORNS

 

[ELVIS]

i don't know about uab, but rip scherier is the off cord for so miss and he very conservative.

 

[AR182]

i may be wrong but i think that a college total was at 35 once in the last 4 years.

 

[Got5onIt]

I'm leaning S.Miss -2.
Under looks good as well.

 

[mjbarley]

I see that Stardust has an opening total of 40.5. Now I just need to wait until one of my offshore books gets on board. I can't see any way that either of these teams hit 20 points, unless there are some huge defensive/special teams plays. Especially since both teams have a short week. The game plans will be nothing elaborate.

Do we have any local members near UAB? Is their QB really healthy, or is he still limping around?

 

[Chenker]

good lcuk with your pick- did you check the weather forecast?

 

[mjbarley]

Thanks. Nope, didn't check the weather. In a game like this, weather is not something that I consider in my 'capping. If the game has a high octane passing team that may be hindered by a cold, windy, snowy day, or if it's a dome team going outside to play on grass in a rainstorm, then it's something I'd consider, but if I'm leaning towards playing a total with 2 very poor offenses, weather isn't a factor to me.

If there is adverse weather, and it has any effect on the game, it could be one of two ways, which I don't think you can predict. It will either:

a). The teams get even more conservative, are happy to punt and play field position, and turn it into a slugfest where any score is great, so the under is a great play

or

b). Lead to more turnovers and cheap special teams or defensive scores, which put up points quickly while not burning lots of clock, turning the over into a great play.

So I usually don't factor weather into my plays, at least until we hit the true chill of winter.

 

[Chenker]

the only reason why I brought it up is that if there is going to be bad weather and everyone starts to read that the total will probably drop a couple of points and you would be better off getting it as soon as it comes out-

 

[mjbarley]

OK. thanks. I'm checking periodically to see when it does come out, and as soon as it does, I'm on it. I can't see it moving up for any reason, but as you mention, it could certainly (and will probably) go down.