Thursday Night

J

Jord20

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Jun 27, 2002
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Chicago, IL
I will try and get to the small colleges later, but may pass on them tonight...

My best plays...

Miami +4.5
SD +5
Oregon +1.5
Iowa +1.5
N texas +3.5
Kentucky -12
Oreg St -5

Others...

Xavier +3
NW +2
Det -2
Maybe more small college later.

:toast:
 
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Hashish

Hashish

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Sep 5, 2006
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Good luck tonight, Jord. I am curious why you are on Colorado. I am on them, too, but I can't say I like the way the line has dropped when it seems Colorado is getting hammered. I really think they will roll them, but that line drop irks me. We're on many of the same plays tonight, which I always like. Good luck, amigo.
 
J

Jord20

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Forum Member
Jun 27, 2002
47,293
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Chicago, IL
Yeah, I don't care for the line movement either.

In short, I have 3 broad columns I usually drop games into...
1. Dogs - these are dogs that are very lightly backed (in other words, fading the heavy public fave plays)
2. Faves - these are faves that are lightly backed by the public (in other words, fading the public dogs)
3. Gut plays regardless of line, line moves, or public perception. These are just eye test plays that I trust my instinct on.

I sift through why I think perception is the way it is, the line moves and what I think they mean, the matchups, and finally the situation (days rest, off a big win, look ahead, etc.).

This play obviously falls under category 3... I don't give a shit if I lose. Colorado is solid and is coming off a couple of tough losses. They have had a few days to get over it and be ready for a big showing vs a crappy team. And, oh by the way, USC SUCKS!!!!
 
J

Jord20

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Jun 27, 2002
47,293
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Chicago, IL
I am playing ALL my dogs on the ML tonight too.

I really think Oregon, Iowa, Miami, and N Texas gets us 3 out of 4
 
Hashish

Hashish

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Damn, Jord, our capping styles are pretty much identical. I use the same three criteria, but I start by going through the card and clicking on plays I like. Then I look at how the public is betting and make adjustments.

I make my plays early in the AM when I feel my mind is the sharpest, so sometimes I get burned by line movement. I can already usually get a sense even in the morning for which way the public breeze is blowing. It was blowing heavy towards Colorado this morning, but I thought the same as you. It's a great spot for Colorado and USC SUCKS!! Buff stampede!
 
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