4 team parlay, 1 unit pays 9:
St Louis Cardinals -146
Over 9 -125 N.Y. Yankees/Boston (Gray/Porcello)
Minnesota -1.5 -105 (Giolito/Berrios)
L.A. Angels -136 (Tropeano/Kennedy)
Detroit/Cleveland-6:10 pm Fulmer (Bauer -- Fulmer had an excellent spring and start to the season. Has issued lots of walks and has had to pitch with plenty of runners about (93.8% strand rate so far!), but he is up to the task and the cold he's pitched in has not helped...Bauer retooled and improved his approach last season, it really showed down the stretch (well after his two rather poor encounters vs Tigers early in season). He's worked more on his pitches during the off season, and early results are excellent..and while both teams hitting rather poor, Cleve bats have shown some upswing of late...these teams are a combined 16-4 to the under last 10 games each....that big plus money for Tigers to avoid sweep it inticing, and so is the under.
St. Louis/Cincinnati-6:40 pm Wacha (Romano -- Wacha 9.2 innings this season, 9 hits, 6 ER. That's even worse than his usual, especially HRs given up. He blames the bitter cold for the bad command....Romano 11 innings, 11 hits, 7 ER...yep, that's him. Tho it was vs WA and Pitt.. he can have good stretches, still...I have more faith in Wacha for a good start than Romano, especially considering Wacha's been excellent vs Reds of late and Reds playing not the best (2-9 record worst in the Majors, but last 6 on the road, some close games, and 1 win was with Romano pitching, so I don't put so much into 2-9 record), still, lots of unpredictability here, Over seems the best bet then, but do like STL...Votto out of the lineup and line has moved
Colorado/Washington-7:05 pm Bettis (Gonzalez -- Gio off 1 ER in 5.1 innings, but 6 hits and 3 walks...Bettis about the same, less hits/walks but also way less SO - Gio is at home and has sharp vs CO in past, team winning, and he is the better pitcher (Bettis 4.90 FIP and 5.02 xFIP so far this season), so I do like Gio and team, but not this stiff price so much. But considering most Nats wins by 2+ and most CO losses by 2+, I would take the -1.5 for WA
N.Y. Yankees/Boston-7:10 pm Gray (Porcello -- Gray off a laboring start, then a good one. He doesn't have good numbers vs Bos and especially at this park....Porcello off a couple good starts (but was vs lame TB bats, very diffrent from these Yanks bats!), his sinker working to get those groundballs and even limiting HRs...both these teams hitting lots of overs...gonna take Boston here as they off a loss and at home (when was last time Yanks won 2 in a row at Fenway?), Bosox in better form and historically better in this matchup...and that over of course, these teams lots overs of late...
Chi. White Sox/Minnesota-8:10 pm Giolito (Berrios -- Giolito has struggled his first 2 (vs Tigers and Royals!) 11.2 innings, 8 hits 8 ERs. He had 0.95 WHIP last season, 45 innings, so he should have good outing soon, typical up and down for him, but his velocity is down still, and MN been excellent vs RHP...Berrios cruised in last start, then hit that bad inning, home vs Seattle. He fired a complete-game shutout in his first start, continuing his very nice progress of last season - I would expect him to be fine here, bounce back at home (team almost always win his home starts), vs struggling CWS (winning last game to avoid getting swept at home like they got swept series before that, at home)...Arenando and Blackmon are out...Minnesota -1.5
L.A. Angels/Kansas City-8:15 pm Tropeano (Kennedy -- Tropeano 1st start offa Tommy John surgery, but he was strong and dominant in Spring and his one start in minors, and very good his start in 2016 vs KC... Angels' position players batting just about best in MLB (their 133 wRC+ and .357 wOBA are the best) but Kennedy been really sharp his two starts this season, like he wasn't last season (but was in spring), dunno what's up but I expect this won't last too long...still, liking the under and gotta ride this Angels terrific play and winning
San Francisco/San Diego-10:10 pm Stratton (Mitchell -- Stratton not good his two starts this season, both vs LAD, plenty of hard contact, he trying to pull it together..Mitchell O ER last start, but 6 walks, 3 hit and only 1 SO!....in fact, only 1 SO in his two starts this season. but that last start was vs Houston, so I do trust Mitchell more than Stratton to have a better start here, but is guessing a bit with these guys, with their current troublesome form....but since SD so dominates SF and I trust Mitchell more, taking SD...
St Louis Cardinals -146
Over 9 -125 N.Y. Yankees/Boston (Gray/Porcello)
Minnesota -1.5 -105 (Giolito/Berrios)
L.A. Angels -136 (Tropeano/Kennedy)
Detroit/Cleveland-6:10 pm Fulmer (Bauer -- Fulmer had an excellent spring and start to the season. Has issued lots of walks and has had to pitch with plenty of runners about (93.8% strand rate so far!), but he is up to the task and the cold he's pitched in has not helped...Bauer retooled and improved his approach last season, it really showed down the stretch (well after his two rather poor encounters vs Tigers early in season). He's worked more on his pitches during the off season, and early results are excellent..and while both teams hitting rather poor, Cleve bats have shown some upswing of late...these teams are a combined 16-4 to the under last 10 games each....that big plus money for Tigers to avoid sweep it inticing, and so is the under.
St. Louis/Cincinnati-6:40 pm Wacha (Romano -- Wacha 9.2 innings this season, 9 hits, 6 ER. That's even worse than his usual, especially HRs given up. He blames the bitter cold for the bad command....Romano 11 innings, 11 hits, 7 ER...yep, that's him. Tho it was vs WA and Pitt.. he can have good stretches, still...I have more faith in Wacha for a good start than Romano, especially considering Wacha's been excellent vs Reds of late and Reds playing not the best (2-9 record worst in the Majors, but last 6 on the road, some close games, and 1 win was with Romano pitching, so I don't put so much into 2-9 record), still, lots of unpredictability here, Over seems the best bet then, but do like STL...Votto out of the lineup and line has moved
Colorado/Washington-7:05 pm Bettis (Gonzalez -- Gio off 1 ER in 5.1 innings, but 6 hits and 3 walks...Bettis about the same, less hits/walks but also way less SO - Gio is at home and has sharp vs CO in past, team winning, and he is the better pitcher (Bettis 4.90 FIP and 5.02 xFIP so far this season), so I do like Gio and team, but not this stiff price so much. But considering most Nats wins by 2+ and most CO losses by 2+, I would take the -1.5 for WA
N.Y. Yankees/Boston-7:10 pm Gray (Porcello -- Gray off a laboring start, then a good one. He doesn't have good numbers vs Bos and especially at this park....Porcello off a couple good starts (but was vs lame TB bats, very diffrent from these Yanks bats!), his sinker working to get those groundballs and even limiting HRs...both these teams hitting lots of overs...gonna take Boston here as they off a loss and at home (when was last time Yanks won 2 in a row at Fenway?), Bosox in better form and historically better in this matchup...and that over of course, these teams lots overs of late...
Chi. White Sox/Minnesota-8:10 pm Giolito (Berrios -- Giolito has struggled his first 2 (vs Tigers and Royals!) 11.2 innings, 8 hits 8 ERs. He had 0.95 WHIP last season, 45 innings, so he should have good outing soon, typical up and down for him, but his velocity is down still, and MN been excellent vs RHP...Berrios cruised in last start, then hit that bad inning, home vs Seattle. He fired a complete-game shutout in his first start, continuing his very nice progress of last season - I would expect him to be fine here, bounce back at home (team almost always win his home starts), vs struggling CWS (winning last game to avoid getting swept at home like they got swept series before that, at home)...Arenando and Blackmon are out...Minnesota -1.5
L.A. Angels/Kansas City-8:15 pm Tropeano (Kennedy -- Tropeano 1st start offa Tommy John surgery, but he was strong and dominant in Spring and his one start in minors, and very good his start in 2016 vs KC... Angels' position players batting just about best in MLB (their 133 wRC+ and .357 wOBA are the best) but Kennedy been really sharp his two starts this season, like he wasn't last season (but was in spring), dunno what's up but I expect this won't last too long...still, liking the under and gotta ride this Angels terrific play and winning
San Francisco/San Diego-10:10 pm Stratton (Mitchell -- Stratton not good his two starts this season, both vs LAD, plenty of hard contact, he trying to pull it together..Mitchell O ER last start, but 6 walks, 3 hit and only 1 SO!....in fact, only 1 SO in his two starts this season. but that last start was vs Houston, so I do trust Mitchell more than Stratton to have a better start here, but is guessing a bit with these guys, with their current troublesome form....but since SD so dominates SF and I trust Mitchell more, taking SD...
