Thursday play for Raymond

[Nickelback]

Look, everyone suffers a bad beat and it looks like the Fresno play was it after such a promising start in the first half. Here's one I love and I think Ray would as well but maybe we'll find out:

Portland -5 over San Fran SUPER BIG

Absolutely love this play. Portland played them to OT in the first meeting down in California. Now Portland gets them at home where they shoot nearly 50% from the field. San Fran on the road? 38%. . . 40% overall. Nothing close. If Portland can keep the rebounding close as they were able to in the first meeting, they win by double digits. If Portland is outrebounded by a decent margin, we still have a very good chance of covering this number.

This one's for you Ray. . . keep capping away

 

[RexBudler]

I like it. gl to you

 

[UT-Longhorn]

good luck Nickel, im going HUGE on this play, actually already have before reading this, San Fran isnt the team they used to be and this will be proven once again tomorrow night. GL

 

[Nickelback]

Figured others would already be on this one. . . nice little value play I think. Of course, the game still has to be played unfortunately! Either way, I'd play these type of games hard every time

 

[gjn23]

like it as well...think line will jump...too bad cant get it in now

 

[Nickelback]

gjn, I think 5 will be close to the resting point. . . pretty sure this line jumped when it was first released but will have to wait until tomorrow to confirm. You should be fine

 

[gjn23]

like anything in the pac-10?

cats -15.5 over ducks
asu 4.5 over beavers
stan 9 over sc
cal 2 over ucla

like the beavers and possibly ucla...cats have been on a roll but 15.5 is large and have a feeling we might come out and try to coast

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Raymond rules...he's ALWAYS been nice to me. He's given me endless amounts of key info on crap so if anyone wants to bash him they can drink squirrel piss.

:mj12:

 

[Nickelback]

I agree about Arizona. . . the line seems about right. . . maybe a little high but they're playing great ball right now. I'd be more interested in the total.

 

[gjn23]

gotta be around 157-160

 

[Nickelback]

Actually bud, I'd like to see the Oregon State/Arizona State line. . . think I would be tempted to go over. OSU is a funny team. . . they'll play down to a team like Washington State (meaning slow tempo) but then rise up and run with Washington. ASU will push it at home I think and no reason why OSU won't follow.

 

[thisisbad]

Might not be the right place but thanks again for the hawaii second half over play. If i had been smarter, i wouldn't have played the first half over, but before readin anything i jumped onthe over 74.5 for the second half to make up for everything, and it worked out fine.

Thanks again man much appreciated.

 

[Nickelback]

anytime. . . hope there was more that got on that one. . . nice little trend for Hawaii that I'll have to keep in mind for the future

 

[gjn23]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1993188

dont know if you heard this tonight about bruschi...hopefully he will be okay....went to hs with his wife and her siblings

 

[thisisbad]

One thing if you are going to track Hawaii also is the player that got hurt, might want to keep an eye on his status. Announcers were basically sayin Hawaii is done without him.
JULIAN SENSLEY i believe. Was hurt on a dunk, got undercut, couldn't even shoot his free throw. Announced as a sprain.

 

[Nickelback]

Geez, I hope so. . . guy is amazing for his size. May have been too much to take over the years. Should certainly consider retirement if he fully recovers from this. Of course retirement may be a foregone conclusion now.

 

[RAYMOND]

info

USF has been battling some minor injuries and have had some incredibly tough losses. They suddenly have found themselves amidst a four game losing streak. Point guard Andre Hazel has been bothered by an early season sprained knee and more recently third leading scorer Jerome Gumbs has battled through a sore ankle. Gumbs had a career high 27 in first meeting vs Portland but has shot just 10-for-39 in last 5 games. Portland took USF to OT in San Francisco, but the Dons were fresh off a huge win over Gonzaga, had foul trouble, and did not play nearly their best game although still managed to win. The good news for USF is they have had a full 8 days in between games to freshen up, rest injuries, and prepare for this weekends games. In their last three road games, USF has won at Santa Clara, should have won at St Mary's, and came close to winning at San Diego despite double digit halftime deficit. Three of Portland's top four scorers and four regulars in all are from the Los Angeles area. They were excited to play in last weeks road trip at LMU and at Pepperdine and performed better than usual in both games. They may actually have a letdown in their return home. I watched this team in person for the second time this season Saturday vs Pepperdine. They still do not impress me much. This figures to be a close game either way. Plus points at the end will be at a premium.

 

[Nickelback]

Portland did perform much better on the road this past road trip. It looked similar to a performance at home. Portland plays so much better at home while San Fran plays significantly worse. I have a feeling this team would be more impressive if you made a trip up to Oregon to watch them play.

Unfortunately, no endorsement from Ray but I still like this play the same.

 

[DirtyBirds]

This portland line scares me a little, I see the line dropping, some places have it at -3.5 even though it looks like the money is going on portland. Any thoughts about this?

dirty

 

[Nickelback]

Its always hard to tell which line moves we have to be concerned about vs. the moves that we don't. I've always been a little more concerned about line moves that take place around 4pm MST over any others. No matter what happens with the moves, the facts are still right in front of me on this game. If Portland shoots 50% or close to it, they SHOULD cover the number. If somebody else has information to the contrary and they put down a huge bet on San Fran, then so be it and I am the sucker. But with the percentages that I have available, this is a very good play.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see this line come up a little. . . would be shocked if it continued to fall. Unfortunately I locked in at 5 when I could have definitely received a better number now but its too late. I'd still play this at 5 very big.