Thursday & the Spotlight Game

[JT Sneaks]

I plan on doing a detailed write-up on an afternoon game today. I don't have any game picked out yet, and thought I would give a chance for someone to suggest one. Instead of a voting process, I thought I would just go with the first one mentioned.


Last night's recap,

UNDER 7.5 -115 Cubs/St. Louis W

Double Unit Selection: UNDER 10 -115 Bos/Det
P

Montreal +140 L

KC +110 W

twinkies +120 L

A's -145 W

Overall: 3-2-1 +110
The streak is Over, however I have still posted negative profit two out of the last three nights.

JT

Sneaks

 

[loophole]

lets hear your take on the cards and cubbies jt. i'm leaning toward morris salvaging something here for st louis. and if your inclined, digress a little on the fla/pit total. as always, appreciate all the nice work.

 

[JT Sneaks]

okay loop, coming up!

 

[JT Sneaks]

Let's get to it...

St. Louis @ Chicago -110 / NT

No total yet, of course so let's start with the side....

Chicago Cubs

The cubbies are blazing as they go for the sweep today against the cards. They have won 14 out of the last 15 and now hold a four game lead in the central. They have won 14 out of the last 15 home games, 9-0 in the last nine home games, and they are 16-4 in the last 20 home games. The cubs are 9-1 in the last ten overall and after getting hammered in St. Louis, (swept and outscored 25-8) the cubs have used this series as a benchmark. EY summed up how important this series is for the cubs. "At this point in the season, this series is more about respect, to let them know we're going to be around all year. We're going to be around in September."

Kevin Tapani
The cub pitcher has also put up good numbers on the year as he is 8-1, 3.47. When you look at his numbers at Wrigley it jumps to an undefeated 5-0, 1.67, and all of those games have been in the afternoon. In his last five starts he is 4-0 to include a no decsion, two of those wins coming on the road. The down side to Tapani is that he has lost his last two starts against the cards by a combined score of 12-2.

Cardinals
The cards have lost six out of ten to include the last 2 on the road to the cubs.
[b ] Matt Morris [/b]
He has been a solid pitcher this year for the cards going 8-3, with an era of 2.86, but he loves the confines at St. Louis as his numbers on the road are anything but impressive at 2-2, 4.50. He won his last start against the cubs @ St Louis 5-2, and overall he has won four of his last five starts but out of those five two were on the road and he split those going 1-1.

Hitting
The cards, although in limited at bats, have several players who above .500 vs. Tapani..

Vina .318
Big Mac .310
Matheny .429
Edmonds .300

also look for a couple of players who have struggled to sit this one out:

Bonilla .222
Paquette .143


The cubbies have some players in the same position:

The Good: (remember limited at bats)
Ro White .429

Stairs .333 Has heated up of late and it may continue, I hit them in bunches," said Stairs, who homered in five straight games for Oakland in 1998. "It just depends on how you're swinging and how you're feeling."

Coomer .333

The Bad:
Gutierrez .250
Sosa .188
and look for giradi behind the plate as Hundley is batting .125

I have more info on this and I am looking to attack the total here and in florida, but again having some computer troubles so I want to get out as much info as I can....


JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

found the total 7.5 U20

JT

 

[JT Sneaks]

Loop, I'll make up for missing the florida game, by doing a "late" spotlight game

but first let me finish the cubs/stl matchup...

Let's start with the weather as we look at the total...
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USIL0225

With no rain in site we can focus on the wind, and in this acse it looks as though it will be out of the north / northwest all day and the speed between 6-8 mph with the possible wind shift let's look at both categories....

When the wind is blowing from the north (which is in from left)in this case the O/U is 3/3, and when it is out of that direction and the wind speed is between 0-10 the O/U stays at .500 at 1/1 nothing impressive however if you look at the cubs record in this situation it is 5-1. I think the reason the record is so good is because the cubs like to move the runners and play "small ball", and the wind blowing in suits their game while stopping the long ball. Something else also caught my eye. When the wind is blowing in from the north the cubs are hitting the ball very well as they average over seven runs per game.

Now let's look at the north west direction (L-R)there is no current data on this direction.

Now let's take a look behind the plate:
Emmel is behind the plate today and so far this year he has been an "under" guy, as the O/U is 3/8 and he averages 8.09 runs per game. The O/u in the last two years before this year was O/U 19/21....

couple of more notes....

Cubs:
1-6 o/u last 7 home games
5-16 o/u last 21 home Day games
0-4 o/u @ home on Thursday this season

Cardinals:
3-9 o/u last 12 games


Back with selections on the early spotlight game, and a few more notes in about 15 minutes....

JT

Sneaks


Loop---the total in the fla/pitt is tough the wind is blowing in gusting up to 22 mph, but couisins behind the plate is historically an Over ump, and the pirates seem to hit clement pretty good, I'll pass....

 

[JT Sneaks]

CHi-sox -130


JT

 

[JT Sneaks]

Also adding
Cubbies -110
Have to take the hotter team with the better home pitcher. I respect the pitching of morris, but on the road he is not the same.

also backing ....

OVER 7.5 +110
The public is pounding the under but I think it is a mistake. The wind is blowing in, but as noted the cubbies average seven runs when this happens. Also morris is not good, on the road, and the Cards should have their full lineup in tact to include Big Mac.
The ump is an under ump, however most of those games the total was much higher than 7.5, as a matter of fact the his average number of runs in a game is over the total.....

In celebration of the first spotlight game, I will parlay them as well.....


JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

The computer is running just fine, any suggestions for the late spotlight game?

Sneaks

 

[wondo]

braves and expos

what do you think?

 

[BigDog]

I'm leaning towards Colorado and the under. Any thoughts?

Dave

 

[gsp]

JT, my stuff also shows a strong over possibility for the Cubs today. LOL

 

[woodpony]

JT if you have time, take a look at Clev/Minn. thanks

 

[JT Sneaks]

gsp,

hope we cash 'em in today.....

I will let everyone suggest a game and then chose by most votes but I am going to start on it by 3:00est, I will try to comment on the ones that do not make the spotlight game.

Thanks,

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Okay I think the best matchup offered up was by woodpony with Cleveland vs. Minnesota so that will be the late night spotlight, but I will also do mini write-ups on atl/mon and col/hou if time permits.

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Cleveland @ Minnesota-120 / 9O15

This hard fought series concludes today as the twins try to salvage a split from the road warrior Indians.

Cleveland Indians
As I mentioned earlier the tribe are road warriors as they have won 18-6 last 24 road games, to include the last two from minnesota to take over a first place.

B. Colon
Considered to be the tribe's ace Colon has been having a tough time of things lately.0-2 last 2 road starts, 0-5 last 5 starts, and things may not get better at minnesota where he is 0-4 since '98. However if Colon has been comfortable anywhere this year it is on the road where he is 3-1, with an era of 3.48, and that one loss was in a day game. In his five starts on the road this year the tribe is 4-1. In his career he is 3-3 with an era of 4.30 against the twinkies.

Minnesota Twins
The twins come into what seems like a must win as they wrap up the four game set. Although they rebound well from a loss
15-3 after a loss last 18 times, they tend to stumble a bit in june at 4-12 last 16 home games. The twins have been bit by the injury bug of late: That doesn't change the potential magnitude of a loss such as Guardado's.

``It's pretty big because he's our so-called spiritual leader in the bullpen,'' Twins pitching coach Dick Such said before the game. ``He gets everybody fired up, keeps every loose. . . . Everybody's hard to replace, but Travis has been throwing the ball well.''

Entire Article: http://www.pioneerplanet.com/sports/twins/docs/021339.htm


B Radke
Although this ace is a proven winner in the dome, twins 6-1 @ home this season, he has had his troubles in the month of June, 4-13 since 98. Cleveland has also been a thorn in his side as he is 2-7 @ home vs Cleveland last 9 starts and overall in his career he is just 5-12 with an era of 6.21


Want to get this info out, but will be back with hitting, total info, and selections on the game if any.

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Let's wrap up the side on the Cle/Minn game:

Hitting
The twins lineup have some very good hitters against colon tonight:

koskie .556
Lawton .389
Jones .300
Hunter .600

and a few who struggle:

Hocking .214
Guzman .182


The indians who offer up the best offensive lineup in baseball also have some hitters who fare well against Radke:

Lofton .395
Fryman .405
Vizquel .346

and of course a few who struggle

Cabrera .200
Branyon .200

This game should be hard fought by both teams, as they both post excellent pitchers against excellent hitting squads. I liked Cleveland in this situation as Colon is a better pitcher on the road, however I t looks as though Gonzalez will sit and I am not sure what sort of impact that will have on the offense.

No Play

*** May change if Gonzalez plays****

Total analysis coming up....

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Total
First thing I like to look at when considering the total is the weather, and since this one is in a dome, I can skip that one next step, behind the plate.

The umpire for tonight's matchup is: Rippley

The O/U since '98 is a lean to the Over at 74/64, however when he goes up against the number 9 the under is O/U 10/13.

I think the total may have some value here, these games have been tight and played with some old fashioned baseball tactics. I look for that to continue tonight. Although it seems as though both clubs hit the other pitcher well, two thigs change this.

1) Gonzalez out for cleveland takes away some firepower and will limit the tribe's scoring.

2) the twins are over run with injuries and will be playing thin.

Finally colon pitches well on the road, and radke's under numbers are legendary.

UNDER 9 (E)


JT

Sneaks

 

[grady2714]

some kind of fine work there, JT, thank you!

 

[JT Sneaks]

Rapid Write-up

Braves @ Expos -110 / 8.5O20

Is there such a thing as looking ahead in bases? I think so, as the braves have the yankees on deck. Does that mean take the expos? Hardly. The expos have been playing horrible and the only reason they are favorites here is because of the pitching on the hill tonight.

The braves have been dominating at montreal as they have won the last 12 out of 16, and they have been red hot overall as they have won the last 11 of 14 games, to include 5-0 the last five on the road.

The expos have been horrid in the last game of a homestand @ 1-9 , but as mentioned before Armas has pitched well of late as he has won his last four home starts and his last five straight.

I don't think I would ever go against the Braves as a dog against a horrible team like the Expos.


Pass on the side


The total is low at 8.5 again based upon the great pitching and the lowly hitting expos..

with weather not a factor let's go right behind the plate....

Cederstrom is an Over ump with the numbers at O/U 81/60 and against the 8.5 he again goes over at O/U 9/4.

The way the braves are hitting I would take a small chance with the over....

Over 8.5 -120

Sneaks

Hope it helps...