Thursday
- Thread starter Chenker
- Start date
Playing the Leafs because of the trend that says play on a playoff caliber team after a bad loss to an inferior team. Nashville has a good home record but they are definitely an inferior team and they are playing they first game home after a brief West Coast road trip.
Leafs PK -130 650/500
Playing the Canes - basically a play against the Habs who are playing their 3rd in 4 nights and back to back. They had to travel last night after their game and probably did not get into Carolina until 2-3 AM. In addition, the Habs are not a real solid road team. Thedore might not be in net since he played last night.
Canes - 1/2 -130 650/500
Good luck!
Leafs PK -130 650/500
Playing the Canes - basically a play against the Habs who are playing their 3rd in 4 nights and back to back. They had to travel last night after their game and probably did not get into Carolina until 2-3 AM. In addition, the Habs are not a real solid road team. Thedore might not be in net since he played last night.
Canes - 1/2 -130 650/500
Good luck!
Thnaks SJ- you nailed it!
I am waiting to see the lines for Friday. If they have the Detroit/Washington total set at 5 1/2 I will play the under for my only play of the day on Friday.
Good luck tonight............
I am waiting to see the lines for Friday. If they have the Detroit/Washington total set at 5 1/2 I will play the under for my only play of the day on Friday.
Good luck tonight............
Leafs on 3 game winless streak
Nash 3-1 ATS vs Leafs. Loss was 3-4 at Toronto this season. Toronto is visiting Nash for first time.
Dunham 2-1-1 vs Leafs. Nash and Dunham especially tough at home coming off losing road swing. And always tough against Toronto.
Newspapers say Toronto 2nd leading scorer Mogilny out again tonight.
My guess is tie. But gotta like the canbet line Nash +1.5 -269. Heavy juice, but Nash is 11-6-6 at home. Only two of those losses by more than one goal. Both early in season against teams Nash has trouble with.
But I'm not gonna play it. Just putting my .02 in. Good luck with it!
Nash 3-1 ATS vs Leafs. Loss was 3-4 at Toronto this season. Toronto is visiting Nash for first time.
Dunham 2-1-1 vs Leafs. Nash and Dunham especially tough at home coming off losing road swing. And always tough against Toronto.
Newspapers say Toronto 2nd leading scorer Mogilny out again tonight.
My guess is tie. But gotta like the canbet line Nash +1.5 -269. Heavy juice, but Nash is 11-6-6 at home. Only two of those losses by more than one goal. Both early in season against teams Nash has trouble with.
But I'm not gonna play it. Just putting my .02 in. Good luck with it!
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Decided to pass on TOR on the road vs. Preds.
Only play is CAR -.5 (-145)
Good luck to you, Chenker and everyone else.
Only play is CAR -.5 (-145)
Good luck to you, Chenker and everyone else.
T-ray-
Thanks for the numbers-
I am basically playing on the Leafs in this spot because of the situation. I do not have numbers that back this up but it has been working pretty well for me- play on a top team (i.e. Leafs, Bruins, Wings, Avs, Sharks, Sens, Flyers, Blues etc...... after an embarrasing loss. This could mean a loss to an awful team i.e. Atlanta (I realize ATL has been playing well lately) or a blowout loss to any team- losing by more than 3 goals. IMO hockey is a game where players sometimes need extra motivation to get up for every game and I am predicting that the Leafs will be up for this game. It does not hurt that the Preds are playing their first home game after a West Coast road trip. One last thing..... If you throw out the home/away records The Leafs are much better than the Preds even without Mogiliny IMO.
Good luck tonight-
Thanks for the numbers-
I am basically playing on the Leafs in this spot because of the situation. I do not have numbers that back this up but it has been working pretty well for me- play on a top team (i.e. Leafs, Bruins, Wings, Avs, Sharks, Sens, Flyers, Blues etc...... after an embarrasing loss. This could mean a loss to an awful team i.e. Atlanta (I realize ATL has been playing well lately) or a blowout loss to any team- losing by more than 3 goals. IMO hockey is a game where players sometimes need extra motivation to get up for every game and I am predicting that the Leafs will be up for this game. It does not hurt that the Preds are playing their first home game after a West Coast road trip. One last thing..... If you throw out the home/away records The Leafs are much better than the Preds even without Mogiliny IMO.
Good luck tonight-
Breakdown on Nashville's wins at home - 11 total
note that only 5 of the 11 wins at home have been against playoff teams (if the playoffs started today)
Calgary
Dallas*
Chicago (2)*
Buffalo
Columbus
Pittsburgh
Ottawa*
Vancouver
Detroit*
Anaheim
note that only 5 of the 11 wins at home have been against playoff teams (if the playoffs started today)
Calgary
Dallas*
Chicago (2)*
Buffalo
Columbus
Pittsburgh
Ottawa*
Vancouver
Detroit*
Anaheim
Well, I hate to keep coming across like a prosecuting attorney!
These general rules (play on leaf after..) are only that--general. You have to see if they apply to the specific case. Play against teams at home coming off winning road trip is a common one, but definitely does not apply to Kings or Flyers, for example.
This Toronto team recently lost to Carolina, then lost to Atlanta, then lost to FL! Follow your rule during that run and be broke. Then Leafs tied WA, tied Montreal, and lost again to AT.
Look at Nash record. Nash coming off poor road trip is nothing but bad news for Toronto.
I agree a big loss will motivate. Nash coming off shutout, for example.
Home/away play can be crucial in handicapping. Yes, Toronto is the better team, but you don't throw out home/away stats if you're trying to handicap a game. That would kill your bankroll if you did it with Nash or Phx this season.
More importantly, I noticed Stag picked Nashville moneyline today!
And I keep hearing unconfirmed rumors of Schwab in net for Leafs tonight. Anybody got confirmation of this? Whaler, where did you hear it?
Good luck to everyone tonight on their picks
These general rules (play on leaf after..) are only that--general. You have to see if they apply to the specific case. Play against teams at home coming off winning road trip is a common one, but definitely does not apply to Kings or Flyers, for example.
This Toronto team recently lost to Carolina, then lost to Atlanta, then lost to FL! Follow your rule during that run and be broke. Then Leafs tied WA, tied Montreal, and lost again to AT.
Look at Nash record. Nash coming off poor road trip is nothing but bad news for Toronto.
I agree a big loss will motivate. Nash coming off shutout, for example.
Home/away play can be crucial in handicapping. Yes, Toronto is the better team, but you don't throw out home/away stats if you're trying to handicap a game. That would kill your bankroll if you did it with Nash or Phx this season.
More importantly, I noticed Stag picked Nashville moneyline today!
And I keep hearing unconfirmed rumors of Schwab in net for Leafs tonight. Anybody got confirmation of this? Whaler, where did you hear it?
Good luck to everyone tonight on their picks
T-Ray- best of luck to you-
I hear what your saying, but I said that I pick my spots when playing a team like the Leafs in this spot, I obviously do not do it everytime-
And as for mentioning that Stag is on Nashville that is not a reason for me to base my play.
It is one play, win or lose I can live with it I am only stating why I played it and it is due to successful plays in similar situations-
I hear what your saying, but I said that I pick my spots when playing a team like the Leafs in this spot, I obviously do not do it everytime-
And as for mentioning that Stag is on Nashville that is not a reason for me to base my play.
It is one play, win or lose I can live with it I am only stating why I played it and it is due to successful plays in similar situations-
going to probably add the Kings later but want to see how the earlier games are looking- will confirm around 7:00 PM PST-
I don't like high juice on the Kings but should be a good spot for them-
Sabres back to back, Essena in net, Sabres something like 2-9 ATS in second of back to back and they have a poor road record-
good luck-
I don't like high juice on the Kings but should be a good spot for them-
Sabres back to back, Essena in net, Sabres something like 2-9 ATS in second of back to back and they have a poor road record-
good luck-
Great capping guys. Different opinions by 2 good cappers,nothing wrong with that. I am personally on Leafs ml -130 because of their insulting loss last outing.
Changing subjects for a moment, which is more important as a rule, series trends or current form? If a teams series trend is showing 8 overs in a row and current form shows 8 unders in a row, would you pass on the game or make a play?
butRnaked
Changing subjects for a moment, which is more important as a rule, series trends or current form? If a teams series trend is showing 8 overs in a row and current form shows 8 unders in a row, would you pass on the game or make a play?
butRnaked
