- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 99-70-4 (+28.7)
OU: 57-48-1 (+4.0)
ML dogs: 3-6 (+2.5)
The Lakers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten appearances as a home favorite playing in a TNT game. They are 0-2 SU so far this year when appearing on TNT, including their home opener. Tonight they get an unrested Heat team that has also faced recent struggles. The Heat have not been great on the road this year. In their last eight road games they are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. Since last season, the Heat are 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS on the road after a road win (where they were an average favorite of 5). They are 2-6 SU and ATS this season on the road against teams with a winning record. I realize the Lakers do not have a winning record right now, but let?s face it, there are a bunch of teams with winning records that you would still rather play than the Lakers. It speaks more to the level of competition, and I have to believe tonight the Lakers will be very competitive. You could argue that the Mavericks are now a quality opponent, but before that, you would have to go back to the Heat beating the Thunder to find a quality win in their schedule.
Teams playing their fourth game in six days when playing as a dog on the road against the Lakers are 1-9 SU (-13 ppg) and 3-7 ATS since the 2006 season. Western conference opponents that are playing at home with more rest than their opponent as a favorite, when their opponent is from the Eastern conference and has a winning record, are 19-4 SU (+9.2) and 18-5 ATS in the last 23.
The Heat are in trouble inside tonight. I bet the Blazers against the Heat about a week ago for the same reason, and tonight is an even bigger matchup problem. Howard has 26.5 points and 15 rebounds in his last two games. He averages 12.6 rebounds per game. In his last four matchups against Bosh, he has pulled down an average of 19 rebounds. The Lakers are the second best rebounding team in the league, and the Heat are second to last. The Lakers should have a lot of second chance points tonight on the offensive glass. Howard should be able to dominate Bosh or Joel Anthony inside. The Lakers have made a concerted effort to get the ball to Howard more in the last two games, and it has paid off. They have been moving the ball extremely well. Teams playing at home as a favorite when they had at least 30 assists in their two previous games are 42-9 SU (+10.8 ppg) and 34-16-1 ATS when their opponent is coming off a win.
If you look at the teams the Heat have lost to this year, they really struggle with teams that have good front courts. There are fifteen teams in the league that have a positive differential in-the-paint. 9 of the Heat?s 12 losses this season have come from these teams. The Lakers rank 9th, which is pretty impressive considering they have been missing Howard for a few games and Gasol for many.
The Lakers last two wins have not been super impressive due to their opponents, but they are 5-2 SU on the year as a home favorite against teams with a winning record. Western conference teams at home as a favorite when they are more rested than their opponents are 19-4 SU (+9.2 ppg) and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 against Eastern conference teams with winning records. The Lakers playing as a favorite in their third home game after two wins are 21-0 SU (+15.1 ppg) since the 2010 season.
The West is still... the Best.
Lakers -2
Good luck...
OU: 57-48-1 (+4.0)
ML dogs: 3-6 (+2.5)
The Lakers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten appearances as a home favorite playing in a TNT game. They are 0-2 SU so far this year when appearing on TNT, including their home opener. Tonight they get an unrested Heat team that has also faced recent struggles. The Heat have not been great on the road this year. In their last eight road games they are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. Since last season, the Heat are 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS on the road after a road win (where they were an average favorite of 5). They are 2-6 SU and ATS this season on the road against teams with a winning record. I realize the Lakers do not have a winning record right now, but let?s face it, there are a bunch of teams with winning records that you would still rather play than the Lakers. It speaks more to the level of competition, and I have to believe tonight the Lakers will be very competitive. You could argue that the Mavericks are now a quality opponent, but before that, you would have to go back to the Heat beating the Thunder to find a quality win in their schedule.
Teams playing their fourth game in six days when playing as a dog on the road against the Lakers are 1-9 SU (-13 ppg) and 3-7 ATS since the 2006 season. Western conference opponents that are playing at home with more rest than their opponent as a favorite, when their opponent is from the Eastern conference and has a winning record, are 19-4 SU (+9.2) and 18-5 ATS in the last 23.
The Heat are in trouble inside tonight. I bet the Blazers against the Heat about a week ago for the same reason, and tonight is an even bigger matchup problem. Howard has 26.5 points and 15 rebounds in his last two games. He averages 12.6 rebounds per game. In his last four matchups against Bosh, he has pulled down an average of 19 rebounds. The Lakers are the second best rebounding team in the league, and the Heat are second to last. The Lakers should have a lot of second chance points tonight on the offensive glass. Howard should be able to dominate Bosh or Joel Anthony inside. The Lakers have made a concerted effort to get the ball to Howard more in the last two games, and it has paid off. They have been moving the ball extremely well. Teams playing at home as a favorite when they had at least 30 assists in their two previous games are 42-9 SU (+10.8 ppg) and 34-16-1 ATS when their opponent is coming off a win.
If you look at the teams the Heat have lost to this year, they really struggle with teams that have good front courts. There are fifteen teams in the league that have a positive differential in-the-paint. 9 of the Heat?s 12 losses this season have come from these teams. The Lakers rank 9th, which is pretty impressive considering they have been missing Howard for a few games and Gasol for many.
The Lakers last two wins have not been super impressive due to their opponents, but they are 5-2 SU on the year as a home favorite against teams with a winning record. Western conference teams at home as a favorite when they are more rested than their opponents are 19-4 SU (+9.2 ppg) and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 against Eastern conference teams with winning records. The Lakers playing as a favorite in their third home game after two wins are 21-0 SU (+15.1 ppg) since the 2010 season.
The West is still... the Best.
Lakers -2
Good luck...
