Dayton (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5. just an action play. Dayton caught an ohio st team that underachieved all year and a Syracuse team that was just terrible the last, what, 2 months? Stanford got a Kansas team that was missing embiid. I think their win over new mexico was the best win either of these teams has put up this tournament. that said, and I know this sounds odd, but I think Stanford may have a bit of a letdown tonight. they are coming off a win over Kansas, in kansas' back yard. and randle (and maybe the whole team) played that game with a chip on their shoulder after the KU press conference. but looking at the numbers, they really didn't play that well. they were 0-9 from beyond the arc, they only had 6 assists the entire game, and they committed 16 turnovers. and if they win tonight, they either get a rematch with ucla or a shot at the #1 team in the country. damn, I'm starting to like this play more and more.
I hope that's not just the beer talking.
Wisconsin (-3.5) 2 units. ugh. this one scares me. Baylor is absolutely peaking at the right time. and they have the kind of long, athletic players that can guard the slow fellas from Wisconsin. but I just feel like they are still vulnerable to a fundamentally sound basketball team that will be able to attack the zone. and Wisconsin is just such a team. oh, and Baylor just can't shoot 64% again, can they? I'm worried that Baylor will continue to dominate the boards like they did against Nebraska and Creighton. they are #10 (+7/game) in the country in rebound margin, so this is nothing new. Wisconsin is 136th, at +1.5 rebounds/game. dammit, I knew Baylor was a bad matchup for Creighton, and I still bet Creighton. I feel like I'm making the same damn mistake 4 days later.
san diego st (+8) 1 unit. I think this will be a low-scoring game, which should favor the dog. and if it's right around the spread coming down the stretch, Arizona shoots 66% from the line. and i'll guess that bill fisher saw the same thing I just did - aaron gordon is a 43% FT shooter. he's 2 of 7 in the tournament. so if sd st is fouling, they will be looking for mr. gordon.
sd st/az under (121.5) 5 units. finally, my only big play today. and I have been TERRIBLE on my big plays lately. but this game has 56-51 written all over it. two teams that are very good on the defensive end. points will be at a premium.
I hope that's not just the beer talking.
Wisconsin (-3.5) 2 units. ugh. this one scares me. Baylor is absolutely peaking at the right time. and they have the kind of long, athletic players that can guard the slow fellas from Wisconsin. but I just feel like they are still vulnerable to a fundamentally sound basketball team that will be able to attack the zone. and Wisconsin is just such a team. oh, and Baylor just can't shoot 64% again, can they? I'm worried that Baylor will continue to dominate the boards like they did against Nebraska and Creighton. they are #10 (+7/game) in the country in rebound margin, so this is nothing new. Wisconsin is 136th, at +1.5 rebounds/game. dammit, I knew Baylor was a bad matchup for Creighton, and I still bet Creighton. I feel like I'm making the same damn mistake 4 days later.
san diego st (+8) 1 unit. I think this will be a low-scoring game, which should favor the dog. and if it's right around the spread coming down the stretch, Arizona shoots 66% from the line. and i'll guess that bill fisher saw the same thing I just did - aaron gordon is a 43% FT shooter. he's 2 of 7 in the tournament. so if sd st is fouling, they will be looking for mr. gordon.
sd st/az under (121.5) 5 units. finally, my only big play today. and I have been TERRIBLE on my big plays lately. but this game has 56-51 written all over it. two teams that are very good on the defensive end. points will be at a premium.
