Thursday

[Smitty]

a very merry christmas to all madjackers.

Independence Bowl

la tech (+7) 2 units
la tech (ML) 1 unit to win 2. well, obviously i'm glad i bet this game when i did on 12/9. although i think, so far, every single bet i put in that day has lost. so much for getting those good early lines. anyway, it seems like the whole world is on the bulldogs, which means miami is a lock. anyway, here goes...

la tech has won 5 straight bowl games under skip holtz. including the last two led by j'mar smith. smith is the heart and soul of this team. they were 9-1 with him under center, with the only loss to texas in the season opener. and he's been good in his two bowl games. 2 years ago, 15 of 23 for 216 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs and last year 19 of 31 for 285 yards with a TD and an INT. in both games, he averaged over 9 yards/attempt.

miami has lost 5 of their last 6 bowl games. as usual, the big question is... will the major conference team show up? if you have any doubts, this should answer them... "We are motivated," junior wide receiver Mike Harley said. as soon as i read that, i know they don't give a fuck about this game. motivated teams don't tell you they are motivated.

at least 4 hurricanes are skipping the game to pursue their nfl dreams. again, that speaks to their motivation.

and the real kiss of death... this is manny diaz' first year as miami head coach.

all that, and i see the line starting to creep back up, and i know i'm losing this one. but hey, like billy joel sang, we'll all go down together.

 

[Smitty]

Quick Lane Bowl

Quick Lane Bowl

there's a lot of reasons to take this many points from an offensively-challenged pitt team. and yet i am laying the points. i feel like pittsburgh is going to dominate this game. against any kind of decent defense, pitt just ain't gonna score. their top running back has 532 yards and averages 4.1 yards/ carry. with only 4 TDs. but this is a pass-first offense. kenny pickett shows flashes of talent now and then, but on the season he threw all of 10 TDs and 9 INTs. and he averages a whopping 6.4 yards/attempt. BUT... eastern mich doesn't have a decent defense. they are 86th in the country in defensive pass efficiency. and 100th against the run, giving up 4.73 yards/carry.

on the other side of the ball, pitt's defense is very good. emu's offense is even more pass-oriented than pitt. and pitt's defense is 12th in the country in defensive pass efficiency. they are also 6th, only allowing 4.4 yards/play.

so i know this is not a true home game for emu. which may be a blessing. because the only teams they beat at home this year are central connecticut and western michigan. and, i am not making this up, they needed to return a blocked punt with 10 seconds left in the game for a td to beat central connecticut 34-29. emu was not good at home this year. and mike glass? wow. 13 TDs and 3 INTs on the road. 9 TDs and 7 INTs at home. emu had better convince themselves this is a road game.

fwiw, both teams are 0-2 in bowl games under their current coaches.

so some of this is definitely more hunch than anything. because if pitt doesn't show up, emu can run away with this game. but sometimes you have to trust your gut. and i'm trusting it with more money than i should. but i'll need to make up for la tech's blowout loss.

pitt (-11.5) 5 units
under 49 2 units
pitt 1st H (-6.5) 2 units


i may add some tomorrow on emu's tt under.

 

[yanno]

WOW, what great writeups, funny too. You are a true sports wagering aficionado (aka degenerate) to be posting this great stuff on Christmas Day. :lol:

I don't know what to make of (almost) everyone being on those La State Bulldogs (and it's not just the public). The line is not creeping back up at Pinnacle, and that is the sharp site of all sharp sites.

Think I'll hook the (+6) with Pitts on the ml for some decent + money, (+143) maybe safer than playing La Tech ml. Love your comment that you'll "need that game to make up for la tech's blowout loss". :mj07:

Happy Holidays and thanks. :toast:

 

[Smitty]

happy holidays, yanno. and you're welcome. most years, i kick ass in the bowl games up 'til new years day. if i can help a few people make some money, then that is icing on the cake.

and let me tell you.... sometimes, it's like i can see the future. just like monday night football... vikings were up 10-6 (covering the first half line) and they got the ball deep in their own territory with less than 2 minutes left. cousins had absolutely sucked at that point. i texted my buddy that if minnesota didn't run the ball 3 times and make GB use all their timeouts, the pack were going to score again before the half. well, the ol' crystal ball was on the money. i don't know how all these guys get paid so much to call plays when none of 'em have a clue what they're doing.

anyway, i digress. the whole world is on the dog(s) in the independence bowl. even some talking heads on espn a couple weeks ago were picking la tech to win. i've told myself a million times to listen to my instincts. maybe after miami rolls i'll finally take that advice. but, again, i put this bet in over 2 weeks ago. i gotta roll with it now, unless i want to stop by the casino tomorrow and see if i can get miami -6. hmmmm....

 

[yanno]

You were right, the line this morning on Pinnacle has gone from (-6) to (-6?) and ml up also.

The large majority of guys picking bowl games on VSIN are also on La Tech. I've never bought into that superstitious "full train" thinking, but after all the unlikely upsets in the NBA last night I'm starting to wonder...Good Luck. :0003


Update: It's just before noon and the line has gone to (-7) at Pinnacle. It was at this point when the line opened at (-7?) and went to (-7) that it was being bought down, presumably by sharp, pro, whatever money. That is a significant move, for sure toward Miami Florida.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

La tech been public dog from beginning Smitty. I?m off that game will just watch. :0002

 

[Smitty]

La tech been public dog from beginning Smitty. I?m off that game will just watch. :0002

you are smarter and more disciplined than i am, sir. :0008

i'm probably going to put some on the under and la tech under. you know, throwing good money after bad.

 

[Jord20]

Smitty - always enjoy your takes. Usually on the same side, but finding myself oppo on both today.

Pitt is probably the right side, but cannot find it in myself to lay 13 with that team.

Good luck on all. Happy holidays


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[bosbabiesarm]

you are smarter and more disciplined than i am, sir. :0008

i'm probably going to put some on the under and la tech under. you know, throwing good money after bad.

Lets bring home the Panthers 🐆
LT may be the right side still Smitty gl brother

 

[Smitty]

Smitty - always enjoy your takes. Usually on the same side, but finding myself oppo on both today.

Pitt is probably the right side, but cannot find it in myself to lay 13 with that team.

Good luck on all. Happy holidays


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

hey, jord, how you been? i hope your christmas was good, and have a great 2020. :toast:

i fully understand that about pitt. and i definitely played them for too much. we'll see how "trusting my gut" works out.

 

[Smitty]

Lets bring home the Panthers 🐆
LT may be the right side still Smitty gl brother

hell yeah! :toast:

and i can't wait to see how this 2nd half plays out. la tech dominated, but only put up 7 points because smith looks like absolute shit. this game is one big turnover away from completely flipping.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

:0071:0068:

Nice 👍🏾

 

[Smitty]

:0071:0068:

Nice 👍🏾

if you had told me la tech was going to score 14 points, no way would i have bet them.

heck of an effort by the la tech defense, but that miami offense is just inept. the fact that they averaged 26 points/game in the acc may say a lot about acc defenses this year. luckily i didn't bet a lot of money on any acc teams tonight... oh fuck. :facepalm:

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Oh fuck is right :lol:

Let?s call Pitt Big East tonight :0074

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Pitt defense has been awful tonight! I guess this team wasn't super excited to play in this bowl game.

 

[jdg226]

Pitt defense has been awful tonight! I guess this team was super excited to play in this bowl game.

Still haven't figured out that e.mich. is hitting them with short, quick passes. Rush ain't getting there. No adjustment.

 

[Smitty]

Still haven't figured out that e.mich. is hitting them with short, quick passes. Rush ain't getting there. No adjustment.

that's it in a nutshell. zero adjustments by pitt. this shit ain't rocket science. oh well, i knew better.