Under 7 (-105) Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Atlanta Braves -158
Under 5? (-105) San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1 unit bet wins 5.22
Good luck beats early rising!! :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 11-58, +25.49 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...
ripped, pilfered, cut and pasted or otherwise from the internets:
Steve Fezzik:
NFL Pit/Philly update. Likely passing the game. LOTS of good info out there pointing "under" but I cannot ignore the Philly Kelly history
Basically, all 6 Philly Kelly preseason game should have gone over,there was a low scoring game ly vs. Car, but that was redzone turnovers.
Buster Olney@Buster_ESPN
ESPN Stats/Info: Since 1986, there have been more than 65,000 games; 74 no-hitters; six four-HR games; 97 cycles; and one upheld protest.
Phil Hecken@PhilHecken
Casey's cap! 1974 Shea Stadium Old Timers Day - Mays, DiMaggio, Stengel, Mantle & Ford
Three Velocity Decliners To Be Concerned About
by Mike Podhorzer
We know that fastball velocity tends to increase as the season progresses. We all generally panic in April when our favorite sleeper?s velocity is down a mile per hour from last year, but usually by the end of the month, his velocity has returned and you?re able to sleep well at night again. But when we see a downtrend in velocity during the season, it?s a troubling sign. And the velocity charts on these three pitchers are concerning.
Hector Santiago velocity
Santiago did spend a bit of time in the Angels bullpen, but this overall trend is ugly. He?s also throwing fewer first pitch strikes, inducing a lower rate of swings and misses, and allowing a ton of fly balls. And yet, his ERA sits in the mid-3.00s! While his batted ball profile does lend itself to a low BABIP, a .264 mark looks a bit too low, and his roughly 6% HR/FB rate will rise. Combine that with a sudden lack of velocity, and I wouldn?t be counting on him as even a streamer candidate in shallow mixed leagues.
Jake Odorizzi velocity
After a disastrous April that saw him post a 6.85 ERA, Odorizzi has posted sub-4.00 marks in each month since with strong skills to support such improved performances. Although he?s still striking hitters out at a high rate, his fastball velocity has been dropping. He?s never thrown more than around 155 innings in a season, and he?s only about 20 innings away from that mark now. Is he losing steam? His xFIP sits at its highest monthly mark in August, excluding his weak April, as he has allowed an insane rate of fly balls above 60% heading into yesterday?s start. The inability to keep the ball down could be a sign of fatigue. His fly ball rate has actually risen every single month this year. I would be a bit worried that the rest of his skills experience a dip over the final month or so.
Danny Duffy velocity
Yuck. This is like a perfect downward slope. It?s especially concerning as he had undergone Tommy John surgery back in 2012. He has somehow managed to post a sub-3.00 ERA, despite strikeout and Swstk% rates in free fall and an extreme fly ball tendency. He is one of the biggest xBABIP overperformers and has outperformed his SIERA to a rather significant degree. Like Santiago above, Duffy does own a batted ball profile that supports a low BABIP. But there?s simply no way a .232 mark is sustainable. And besides, he has posted almost distributions in 2011 and 2012, yet his BABIP marks stood at .329 both season over a small sample of innings.
It?s good to see that his control has improved dramatically as he is now throwing strikes at a league average clip. But all his pitches have been below average in generating whiffs (aside from his two-seamer over a small sample of pitches), and he needs to get that strikeout rate back up to keep runners off the bases when his HR/FB rate inevitably regresses back toward the league average. With his prior prospect pedigree, he?s a prime sell high guy, especially in keeper leagues.
----
The Linemakers' lean: The first angle to look at here is the posted total of 50, which is understandably high considering the Eagles' defense has given up 76 points in two preseason games. The Eagles' offense has also put points on the board, but there should be a little more resistance from an improved Steelers defense, both their first and second stringers.
The Steelers have been running their no-huddle almost exclusively while Roethlisberger has been in the game. That doesn?t necessarily mean a faster pace, as they have made a point of running the ball more and keeping the clock going. So we caution those jumping on the OVER again with Philly. We look for a lower-scoring game, and we'll take the points with the Steelers. Mike Tomlin takes the dress rehearsal game seriously -- he's 5-2 in Week 3 of the preseason over his career.
====
L.A. Angels
Their leading hitter at .294 is Brock Holt, who bats leadoff and is currently in a 0-8 slump. The bottom four in the order are hitting .194, .250, .225 and .214 respectively. Cleanup hitter, Yoenis C?spedes, the dude they traded Jon Lester for, is batting .252 on the year but has just five hits in his past 27 AB?s and hasn?t had more than one hit in a game in his last 15 games. There?s a good chance that both Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will sit this one out, as both have minor injuries and Napoli missed last night. The Red Sox are down to their third string catcher, David Ross. Xander Bogaerts has one hit in his last 19 AB?s. Boston has dropped four in a row and five of six with its only victory over that span coming against the Astros. Rubby De La Rosa gets this start and he?s done his best work at Fenway Park. In six starts at home, De La Rosa is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA. However, that is where the positives end, as only one of his past seven starts were of the pure quality variety. De La Rosa has a 14/15 BB/K split over his past 27 innings. He has a WHIP of 1.93 over his past five starts. His swinging strike rate is getting worse, as batters are starting to lay off his pitches because he can?t throw strikes. De La Rosa fooled some Angels on August 10 in Anaheim but he?s not going to fool them again now that they?ve seen him. Over his last seven starts, De La Rosa has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.83 xERA. His actual ERA of 3.79 on the year and 3.25 ERA at home is nothing but fool?s gold.
By contrast, Matt Shoemaker has been very consistent for a rookie pitcher, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Four of his six starts on the road have resulted in pure quality starts. Shoemaker is 5-1 on the road with an unappealing 5.70 ERA but his high ERA away from the ?Big A? is a direct result of unfortunate hit and strand rates. In 42 innings since July 1, Shoemaker is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 xERA, 8.6 K?s/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. The Angels have a big edge offensively, they have an edge on the mound with a pitcher that throws strikes opposing one that doesn?t and from a state of mind standpoint, L.A.?s edge is massive. Get out the brooms.
Atlanta
The Reds have two wins over their past 12 games and both victories occurred with Johnny Cueto starting. Cincinnati has also lost five straight and the pitching staff has allowed 38 runs over that span. The bullpen is not only garbage but they?re also running on fumes and they figure to be needed early in this one. Enter David Holmberg, who is ready to serve as an emergency call-up due to last Sunday's doubleheader. His only other start this season was also the result of a doubleheader. Holmberg started the back end on July 8, allowing five earned runs and three jacks in just 2.2 innings. His results at AAA-Louisville don't warrant a promotion. In 17 starts at Louisville, covering 87.1 innings, Holmberg went 1-6 with a BB/K split of 32/50, a 4.64 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Holmberg is a lefty and the Braves .267 BA against southpaws on the road is the second best mark in the NL. After this game, Holmberg will be headed back down to Louisville and he may never return.
Julio Teheran is a case study in why post-hype targets can be profit centers. This former top prospect's K surge came with full swing and miss support and his three years of improving control tells us he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, even if xERA points towards some minor regression. In 177 innings, Teheran has a BB/K split of 41/153. Current Reds have just seven hits in 38 career AB?s against Teheran for a BA of just .184. There?s a good chance that Teheran will be throwing some easy innings if the Braves score early. Judging by Holmberg?s brutal profile, only severe good fortune will prevent the Braves from scoring early and often.
----
Cleveland Indians pitcher Corey Kluber is 17-4 in his team starts (80.9%) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game over the last two seasons. The right-hander looks to continue his red-hot second half Thursday as he faces the host Minnesota Twins. Kluber is 17-3 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons, including a spotless 4-0 mark this season with a 0.76 ERA in six second-half assignments to vault himself to 15th in pitcher value at $655.
Among the major league leaders in ERA, Kluber is 6-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last eight outings and has allowed four earned runs, struck out 55 and held opponents to a .161 average over 47 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old gave up a run, five hits and fanned 10 for the second straight start over 7 2/3 innings of a 2-1, 11-inning victory over Baltimore on Friday. He's 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in seven meetings against the Twins and prevailed in his last one, a 12-6 win at Minnesota on Sept. 27 despite yielding six runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Atlanta Braves -158
Under 5? (-105) San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1 unit bet wins 5.22
Good luck beats early rising!! :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 11-58, +25.49 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...
ripped, pilfered, cut and pasted or otherwise from the internets:
Steve Fezzik:
NFL Pit/Philly update. Likely passing the game. LOTS of good info out there pointing "under" but I cannot ignore the Philly Kelly history
Basically, all 6 Philly Kelly preseason game should have gone over,there was a low scoring game ly vs. Car, but that was redzone turnovers.
Buster Olney@Buster_ESPN
ESPN Stats/Info: Since 1986, there have been more than 65,000 games; 74 no-hitters; six four-HR games; 97 cycles; and one upheld protest.
Phil Hecken@PhilHecken
Casey's cap! 1974 Shea Stadium Old Timers Day - Mays, DiMaggio, Stengel, Mantle & Ford
Three Velocity Decliners To Be Concerned About
by Mike Podhorzer
We know that fastball velocity tends to increase as the season progresses. We all generally panic in April when our favorite sleeper?s velocity is down a mile per hour from last year, but usually by the end of the month, his velocity has returned and you?re able to sleep well at night again. But when we see a downtrend in velocity during the season, it?s a troubling sign. And the velocity charts on these three pitchers are concerning.
Hector Santiago velocity
Santiago did spend a bit of time in the Angels bullpen, but this overall trend is ugly. He?s also throwing fewer first pitch strikes, inducing a lower rate of swings and misses, and allowing a ton of fly balls. And yet, his ERA sits in the mid-3.00s! While his batted ball profile does lend itself to a low BABIP, a .264 mark looks a bit too low, and his roughly 6% HR/FB rate will rise. Combine that with a sudden lack of velocity, and I wouldn?t be counting on him as even a streamer candidate in shallow mixed leagues.
Jake Odorizzi velocity
After a disastrous April that saw him post a 6.85 ERA, Odorizzi has posted sub-4.00 marks in each month since with strong skills to support such improved performances. Although he?s still striking hitters out at a high rate, his fastball velocity has been dropping. He?s never thrown more than around 155 innings in a season, and he?s only about 20 innings away from that mark now. Is he losing steam? His xFIP sits at its highest monthly mark in August, excluding his weak April, as he has allowed an insane rate of fly balls above 60% heading into yesterday?s start. The inability to keep the ball down could be a sign of fatigue. His fly ball rate has actually risen every single month this year. I would be a bit worried that the rest of his skills experience a dip over the final month or so.
Danny Duffy velocity
Yuck. This is like a perfect downward slope. It?s especially concerning as he had undergone Tommy John surgery back in 2012. He has somehow managed to post a sub-3.00 ERA, despite strikeout and Swstk% rates in free fall and an extreme fly ball tendency. He is one of the biggest xBABIP overperformers and has outperformed his SIERA to a rather significant degree. Like Santiago above, Duffy does own a batted ball profile that supports a low BABIP. But there?s simply no way a .232 mark is sustainable. And besides, he has posted almost distributions in 2011 and 2012, yet his BABIP marks stood at .329 both season over a small sample of innings.
It?s good to see that his control has improved dramatically as he is now throwing strikes at a league average clip. But all his pitches have been below average in generating whiffs (aside from his two-seamer over a small sample of pitches), and he needs to get that strikeout rate back up to keep runners off the bases when his HR/FB rate inevitably regresses back toward the league average. With his prior prospect pedigree, he?s a prime sell high guy, especially in keeper leagues.
----
The Linemakers' lean: The first angle to look at here is the posted total of 50, which is understandably high considering the Eagles' defense has given up 76 points in two preseason games. The Eagles' offense has also put points on the board, but there should be a little more resistance from an improved Steelers defense, both their first and second stringers.
The Steelers have been running their no-huddle almost exclusively while Roethlisberger has been in the game. That doesn?t necessarily mean a faster pace, as they have made a point of running the ball more and keeping the clock going. So we caution those jumping on the OVER again with Philly. We look for a lower-scoring game, and we'll take the points with the Steelers. Mike Tomlin takes the dress rehearsal game seriously -- he's 5-2 in Week 3 of the preseason over his career.
====
L.A. Angels
Their leading hitter at .294 is Brock Holt, who bats leadoff and is currently in a 0-8 slump. The bottom four in the order are hitting .194, .250, .225 and .214 respectively. Cleanup hitter, Yoenis C?spedes, the dude they traded Jon Lester for, is batting .252 on the year but has just five hits in his past 27 AB?s and hasn?t had more than one hit in a game in his last 15 games. There?s a good chance that both Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will sit this one out, as both have minor injuries and Napoli missed last night. The Red Sox are down to their third string catcher, David Ross. Xander Bogaerts has one hit in his last 19 AB?s. Boston has dropped four in a row and five of six with its only victory over that span coming against the Astros. Rubby De La Rosa gets this start and he?s done his best work at Fenway Park. In six starts at home, De La Rosa is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA. However, that is where the positives end, as only one of his past seven starts were of the pure quality variety. De La Rosa has a 14/15 BB/K split over his past 27 innings. He has a WHIP of 1.93 over his past five starts. His swinging strike rate is getting worse, as batters are starting to lay off his pitches because he can?t throw strikes. De La Rosa fooled some Angels on August 10 in Anaheim but he?s not going to fool them again now that they?ve seen him. Over his last seven starts, De La Rosa has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.83 xERA. His actual ERA of 3.79 on the year and 3.25 ERA at home is nothing but fool?s gold.
By contrast, Matt Shoemaker has been very consistent for a rookie pitcher, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Four of his six starts on the road have resulted in pure quality starts. Shoemaker is 5-1 on the road with an unappealing 5.70 ERA but his high ERA away from the ?Big A? is a direct result of unfortunate hit and strand rates. In 42 innings since July 1, Shoemaker is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 xERA, 8.6 K?s/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. The Angels have a big edge offensively, they have an edge on the mound with a pitcher that throws strikes opposing one that doesn?t and from a state of mind standpoint, L.A.?s edge is massive. Get out the brooms.
Atlanta
The Reds have two wins over their past 12 games and both victories occurred with Johnny Cueto starting. Cincinnati has also lost five straight and the pitching staff has allowed 38 runs over that span. The bullpen is not only garbage but they?re also running on fumes and they figure to be needed early in this one. Enter David Holmberg, who is ready to serve as an emergency call-up due to last Sunday's doubleheader. His only other start this season was also the result of a doubleheader. Holmberg started the back end on July 8, allowing five earned runs and three jacks in just 2.2 innings. His results at AAA-Louisville don't warrant a promotion. In 17 starts at Louisville, covering 87.1 innings, Holmberg went 1-6 with a BB/K split of 32/50, a 4.64 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Holmberg is a lefty and the Braves .267 BA against southpaws on the road is the second best mark in the NL. After this game, Holmberg will be headed back down to Louisville and he may never return.
Julio Teheran is a case study in why post-hype targets can be profit centers. This former top prospect's K surge came with full swing and miss support and his three years of improving control tells us he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, even if xERA points towards some minor regression. In 177 innings, Teheran has a BB/K split of 41/153. Current Reds have just seven hits in 38 career AB?s against Teheran for a BA of just .184. There?s a good chance that Teheran will be throwing some easy innings if the Braves score early. Judging by Holmberg?s brutal profile, only severe good fortune will prevent the Braves from scoring early and often.
----
Cleveland Indians pitcher Corey Kluber is 17-4 in his team starts (80.9%) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game over the last two seasons. The right-hander looks to continue his red-hot second half Thursday as he faces the host Minnesota Twins. Kluber is 17-3 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons, including a spotless 4-0 mark this season with a 0.76 ERA in six second-half assignments to vault himself to 15th in pitcher value at $655.
Among the major league leaders in ERA, Kluber is 6-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last eight outings and has allowed four earned runs, struck out 55 and held opponents to a .161 average over 47 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old gave up a run, five hits and fanned 10 for the second straight start over 7 2/3 innings of a 2-1, 11-inning victory over Baltimore on Friday. He's 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in seven meetings against the Twins and prevailed in his last one, a 12-6 win at Minnesota on Sept. 27 despite yielding six runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings.
