Thursday's Parlays

[Terryray]

12:10 PM [901] CIN REDS -1.5 +125 ( D STRAILY -R / M WISLER -R )
1:10 PM [910] TOTAL u7.5 -115 (SEA MARINERS vrs TB RAYS) ( J PAXTON -L / B SNELL -L )
3:35 PM [911] TEX RANGERS -111 ( C LEWIS -R / D MENGDEN -R )

1 unit bet pays 7.00 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay posting later...

MLB parlays: 9-71, +1.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9

Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:

:0074

ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:


Wisler fell to 2-7 on the season with Saturday's rocky outing, though his win-loss record is more a reflection of a lack of run support and a poor bullpen than his own struggles. Wisler's ERA rests at 4.36 following Saturday's start, and that's a reasonable approximation of his skills. Wisler's 6.5 K/9 rate is below the league average, as is his ground-ball rate of about 37 percent. The 23-year-old does have very strong control, which helps to mitigate the fact that he's allowed slightly more than a hit per inning since debuting in the Major Leagues.

Matt Wisler has been hit hard his past two times out, giving up 13 runs, including six homers, in just eight innings. That's a tough pill to swallow. On the bright side, he delivered six straight quality starts before his rough patch, and he has a favorable matchup against the Reds, who struggle against righty pitching (83 wRC+) and strike out a lot (23 percent).

The Braves are one of the teams we pick on most in this space. On Thursday, it's Dan Straily's turn to face the offense that ranks last in baseball with a 74 weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching to go along with a 0.98 isolated power. The Braves do make a lot of contact, but it's a lot of weak contact, as their 19.9 soft-hit percentage is fourth worst in the NL. If you take out Straily's Coors Field start -- the right-hander has a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts this season. The underlying numbers don't support an ERA that low, but he remains a quality option against such a weak opponent.

I feel the need to talk about Dan Straily he just went [last start] 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the A's. There may be a good amount of you staring at his 2.89 ERA and wonder why he's not on your squad. Short answer: He's incredibly boring and will shift from that boring fiend to the one who unleashes his bottled emotions in one massive outburst that will traumatize your life. He carries a horrible walk rate near 4.00 per 9 and his K/9 is inflated by one start where he struck out 11. That start is one of only two where he's fanned more than five batters. At the same time, I have to acknowledge that he's allowed more than 3 ER just once all year, which leads to his aforementioned low 2.89 ERA. But all the advanced stats hate him and I can't sit idly as his BABIP sits at .226 while inducing just 17.6% soft contact. It's not a recipe for prolonged success, and he'll run out of sacrifices to the baseball gods soon enough.

Reds @ Braves
Straily is 2-0, 3.60 in his last three starts; four of his last six starts went over.
Wisler is 0-4, 8.14 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
Atlanta lost nine of last 12 games; four of its last five games went over. Reds are 10-5 in their last 15 games, eight of their last ten road games went over the total.

After watching his bullpen get drained by Wednesday's 13-inning marathon, Cincinnati manager Bryan Price is hopeful to get plenty of innings from Straily.

"Let's put it this way, he's going to get a great chance to throw a lot of innings."

The Reds used seven relievers in the 9-8 loss to Atlanta; only Blake Wood failed to appear because Price had already decided he was overworked. Price said the Reds would make a pitching change before Thursday's game to add at least one fresh arm.
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It's been only three starts, but there's plenty reason to be optimistic about James Paxton. After averaging 94.2 mph on his fastball in 2015, it's pumping at 97.3 mph this season thanks to a mechanical tweak he made in the minors. That newfound heat has led to 24 strikeouts in 16 innings this year, while he's also limited walks (2.3 BB/9) and induced plenty of grounders (50 percent). The Rays present a tough matchup, as they have the highest wRC+ in baseball against lefty pitching (plus-123), so risk-averse owners should tread lightly. Then again, a 24 percent strikeout rate against southpaws means the upside is also substantial.

Snell, the Rays' top prospect, is making his second big league start. This one, though, likely won?t be a spot start. He pitched five innings of one-run ball against the Yankees on April 23 and 13 K's in his most recent outing in Durham on Friday.

Snell, drafted in the first round in 2011 (52nd overall) is 3-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 starts for Triple-A Durham. He has struck out 90 batters and walked 28 in 63 innings. Snell has one MLB start under his belt, against the Yankees in New York on April 23. Snell allowed one run on two hits in five innings, while receiving a no-decision.

Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash announced on Sunday that he was moving starter Matt Andriese from the rotation to the bullpen. Somewhat strange considering Andriese at 5-0 with a 2.82 ERA leads the rotation in wins and ERA. He also has the lone complete game-shutout on the staff. But that opens a spot for Snell, who was the 2015 Minor League Player of the Year with 15-4 record, 1.41 ERA, and 163 strikeouts over 134 innings between Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A. This year with Triple-A Durham, the 23-year-old lefty was 3-5 with a 3.45 ERA in 12 starts. He struck out 90 and allowed only 56 hits in 63 innings. He can be a bit wild at times.

Snell made his big-league debut April 23 at the New York Yankees, allowing one run and two hits over five innings while striking out six in a no-decision. Snell set down 12 of the 14 batters he faced after the first inning, half by strikeout. He struck out Brian McCann twice on huge, 73 mph curveballs. Snell was sent back to Triple-A right after the game. ..While the Mariners crush righties, they're middle-of-the-road against southpaws, making this a solid matchup for the rookie.

The Mariners are way over .500 in games played Monday-Friday this season but an odd 6-14 on Saturday and Sunday after losing both those days last weekend to Texas. Seattle also has a much better road record than at home this year despite outscoring their opponent by 18 runs at Safeco Field. Very weird.

Lewis allowed one run in eight innings in his last start against the Mariners on Saturday. It was his league-leading 11th quality start. He is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in six starts on the road.
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Mengden made one mistake in his Major League debut, serving up a deep two-run homer to Jay Bruce. He was otherwise solid over his 5 2/3 innings, striking out five.

Mengden went from not being invited to Spring Training to getting a call up by posting a 1.16 ERA over two levels in the Minor Leagues this season. He didn't find Major League hitters to be quite as forgiving as he surrendered a two-run home run to Jay Bruce in the third inning. Mengden doesn't have overpowering stuff, so he'll have to learn to have pinpoint control and rely on his defense to have success at the highest level.

Texas at Oakland
Play: Texas -114

The last place Oakland Athletics had a 5-0 lead last night with Sonny Gray on the mound and still couldn't win and now have lost nine of their last 11 games. It won't likely get any easier against Colby Lewis who has quality starts in eight of his last 10 appearances, including a 2-1 win at Seattle on Saturday when he allowed just one run and three hits in eight innings. Lewis was 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and .153 opponent batting average against Oakland last year and the A's are 25th in the major leagues with a .692 OPS against right-handers. Daniel Mengden will be making his second start after allowing two runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings at Cincinnati on Saturday. Texas owns the best record in the American League and has won 14 of its last 18 games and the Rangers are 9-3 their last 12 games versus righties.
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Pirates: Juan Nicascio 1-4 away team starts with 6.20 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season as opposed to 5-1 home with a 2.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Nationals at Padres
Pick: Under

Washington was involved in a defensive game yesterday at home against the Cubs and has a quick turnaround, flying 3,000 miles for this one. Petco Park is huge, tough on hitters, and the under is 15-5-2 when the Nationals are on the road against a team with a losing home record. Tanner Roark goes here, with a 2.93 ERA and he struck out seven and gave up just six hits over seven scoreless innings against the Phillies on Saturday. The Under is 8-3-1 in Roark's last 12 starts overall. He faces a bad San Diego offense, #23 in runs scored, #29 in on base percentage. The Under is 36-16-5 when the Padres are at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. And the Under is 35-17-3 in the last 55 meetings in San Diego.

Erik Johnson makes his second start for the Padres against Washington right-hander Tanner Roark (5-4, 2.93 ERA).

Johnson was obtained from the Chicago White Sox on June 4 in the trade that sent right-hander James Shields to the White Sox. Both pitchers have struggled for their new teams.

Johnson made his Padres debut last Saturday afternoon at Coors Field in Colorado. He gave up five runs on nine hits and two walks in just 4 2/3 innings. Two of the hits were home runs. The Rockies jumped Johnson for three runs in the bottom of the first after the Padres had given him a 2-0 lead.

Plus, the Padres have struggled in the past against the 29-year-old Roark, who has a 2-0 record with a 0.45 ERA against the Padres in three previous meetings (two starts). At Petco, Roark has given up one run on four hits over 11 innings. Padres batters who have faced Roark before are a combined 4-for-41.
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[Terryray]

well, the day parlay went over real well

10:10 PM [907] WAS NATIONALS -178 ( T ROARK -R / E JOHNSON -R )
07:10 PM [914] BOS RED SOX -135 ( T WILSON -R / E RODRIGUEZ -L )
08:10 PM [915] NY YANKEES -145 ( C SABATHIA -L / K GIBSON -R )
08:15 PM [918] TOTAL u8-105 (DET TIGERS vrs KC ROYALS) ( J VERLANDER -R / D DUFFY -L )
07:05 PM [919] TOR BLUE JAYS -124 ( J HAPP -L / A NOLA -R )

1 unit bet pays 15 ....betdsi line

Goooooood Luck ALLLL!!!! :spotting: :00hour:em71:


ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:

In five career starts vs. the Yankees Gibson is 1-3 with a 10.72 ERA against the Yankees. The one win was in New York July 14, 2013 when he opposed Sabathia in a 10-4 victory.

Joe Mauer has reached base in 27 straight games for the Twins but is a .163 (7-for-43) hitter off Sabathia.

Danny Duffy - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. Just so we're clear, I wasn't a believer before given his track record as a starter, but I've been turned since he's kept up his high velocity and now holds an elite whiff rate among starters. I should have had him speculatively higher on The List last week, and he's getting a mega bump tomorrow.

Pittsburgh +113 over N.Y. METS

Juan Nicasio has been the nomad of this Pirates pitching staff since the injury to Garret Cole. His last appearance came in one inning of relief Friday versus the Cardinals and he gave up six runs in the 12th to take the loss. He's in the rotation today and the Mets are the perfect team for him to get back in the groove against. In Nicasio's last start June 7th against these Mets, he earned the win by allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven in five innings of work. The Mets bats have gone silent and we will not let last night?s 11-run outburst change our minds. Prior to last night, the Mets hadn't scored more than nine total runs in their last four games. They've been shut out twice in their last 10 including game one of this series with the Bucs. It's unlikely they'll explode for another crooked number tonight but even if they do, so too might the Pirates.

Bartolo Colon continues to defy logic, gravity and physics every time the Mets roll him out to the mound. He's given up five total earned runs and just four walks over his last four games. Colon has always had great control but his recent results once again have him overpriced. It's not that he's bad, but he continues to beat up on father time and that's a battle Colon just can't win. On the surface his 3.08 ERA looks great but his expected earned run average is 4.59. This shows us that Colon has been pitching above his means while getting some luck along the way. He's giving up hits but his strand percentage is 79.8%. The Mets defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in fielding percentage, which doesn?t bode well for a pitcher that relies heavily on his defense. If Colon continues to put men on base, eventually a few of them will make it home. Colon gave up eight hits in his last start at Milwaukee but was fortunate that just one run crossed the plate over his seven innings of work. Like sand through the hour glass time is running out on big fat Bartolo. He keeps on chooglin' with laser-beam control, stellar command, and pitching ahead in the count. His subpar K-rate and swing and miss rate provide him little room for error, but his results say he doesn't make many. He shrugs off age and girth, but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? He must be faded when priced in this range against a dangerous team like the Pirates. Period.

KANSAS CITY +104 over Detroit

Justin Verlander quietly is resembling the rotation anchor he used to be. He was very good in May (3.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and posted solid underlying skills. Verlander has also found his groove against LH batters with 11.5 K?s/9. However, his continued fly-ball tilt (34/20/46 G/L/F) will keep him prone to blowups and while Verlander is legit, the Tigers bullpen is not. This wager is not about fading Verlander. It?s about backing a great starter at home taking back a price.

Danny Duffy has enjoyed a seamless transition back to the KC rotation, continuing the overall skill surge we saw from him in September 2015. In fact, few starters have been better than Duffy during the last month: 30/2 K/BB in 27 innings. His 17% swing and miss rate and 69% first-pitch strike rate over that period fully validates his elite command. The key has been turning his mid-90s heat into swings-and-misses. He has an 18% swing and miss rate on his four-seam fastball compared to a sub-7.5% swing and miss rate against it the prior two seasons. He's getting more movement on that pitch than he has in the recent past. He also has ironed out his wrinkles against RH bats. Finally, Duffy has been elite both at home and on the road. The only reason for his 4.76 ERA at home has been a trifecta of bad luck: 34% hit rate, 67% strand rate, 13% hr/f. Danny Duffy is the straight goods with one of the best xERA?s (2.66) in baseball. His actual and very misleading home ERA has him wrongly billed as the dog here.

Milwaukee +160 over LOS ANGELES

Junior Guerra has produced an excellent 3.31 ERA for the Brewers and it comes with the full support of his sub-indicators. Guerra has a 12% swing and miss rate, a 45% groundball rate and 28 K?s over his last 31 frames. He has a solid-average 90-94 mph fastball that has good darting action, a hard slider that serves as his put-away pitch and a split-change. Guerra has been weaker on the road, where he has a 3.71 ERA compared to 3.09 at home, which is unusual because Miller Park is a pure hitters park. That Guerra has pitched so well at home makes him even more appealing in this pitcher?s park against a Dodgers? club that has struggled at home with a .662 OPS. That ranks 12th in the NL.

Scott Kazmir struggled with his control in his last outing against San Francisco, allowing five walks with only three strikeouts. The Brewers' 11% bb% on the road says that he'll have to get the ball over the plate. Furthermore, the Crew hit southpaws relatively well with a .726 OPS, which is just slightly above league average. It's amazing how helpful or hurtful the hit % and strand % pendulum can be. While his skills eroded, Kazmir was saved by a friendly strand rate. A rising xERA trend combined with a big second half skills erosion last year makes Kazmir far too big a risk in this price range. Yeah, he has 75 K?s in 74 innings but that ERA/xERA split of 4.52/4.41 reveals that when batters are making contact, it is hard contact. His 33% line-drive rate over his last five starts doesn?t say otherwise. Kazmir was taken yard nine times in his first six starts but has not been taken deep since in his last four starts. However, those last four starts occurred at Chicago with the wind blowing in, at San Fran at night, and in two games at home against Cincinnati and Atlanta. Kazmir?s three year hr/f rate says he is going to be taken deep a bunch more times over the next few games. Kazmir is a big risk at a big price.

MINNESOTA +126 over N.Y. Yankees

Kyle Gibson returned from a near two-month layoff to face the Red Sox last week and it wasn?t pretty. The Twins lost 15-4 with Gibson throwing 5.2 innings and allowing seven hits and five runs. The buds of Gibson?s raw ability started to blossom into skills last year, as demonstrated by the 3.84 ERA/3.94 xERA he posted. Gibson may or may not have a good game here but he?s someone we will profile more in-depth later on. What we know for sure is that the Yanks aren?t the Red Sox and that C.C. Sabathia is not what he appears to be either.

The New York Yankees keep losing but they?re still favored far too often. They were favored in Colorado both games and lost both games. They have now lost four straight and if you take away the seven runs that the Yanks scored in one inning in Colorado, they scored just six runs there in the other 17 innings while Colorado scored 19 times. Prior to that against Detroit, the Yanks scored twice in two games.

Professional baseball is a game of adjustments. Of adjusting to life on the road. Of adjusting to no longer being the alpha dog on the field. Of adjusting to the adjustments that teams make once they have a reliable scouting report. Of adjusting to one?s body over the course of a long career. C.C. Sabathia has been forced to do all of that. He?s gone from Cy Young candidate to below-replacement pitcher. He?s checked himself into rehab and handled the P.R. ramifications of such a public choice. He?s listened to his body?more directly, his decreased velocity?and introduced a cutter into his repertoire to cope with it. In short, CC Sabathia is a professional pitcher in the true sense of the word, a guy who works at his craft and takes meaningful steps to remain successful. Some things have worked more than others. But in the last 30 days, Sabathia has been the second-best starter in Major League Baseball surrounded by Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto and Noah Syndergaard. That?s quite some company surrounding Sabathia?four front-line starters...and the Yankees? lefty, which begs the question, is CC Sabathia fixed? Has he discovered an avenue toward sustained success with this cutter?

So really what we?re talking about is his last six-game stretch, in which he?s been phenomenal. He has only allowed three earned runs in his last 38 innings, good for an 0.71 ERA, and he?s holding hitters to a .176/.265/.221 slash line. It?s a stretch of performance that has been so utterly dominant that it has effectively made his early-season disaster look like a mere speed bump on a newly-paved road. His cutter hasn?t been a magical pitch for him in 2016. He actually struggled with it in the month of April, as opposing teams hit .290 against the pitch, admittedly with a .375 BABIP. Still, it wasn?t handcuffing right-handers like it was supposed to. It?s no secret as to what Sabathia was trying to do with his cutter to neutralize righties. He tried to pound them on the extreme inner half, often working it up in the zone to make it very difficult to handle. One could argue that his cutter vastly improved since the month of May. Opposing teams are only hitting .159 against the pitch, something that?s helped by an unsustainable .200 BABIP. When it comes to location, though, nothing really changed. Sabathia is still doing the same thing with the pitch, just suddenly getting very different results.

There is no evidence whatsoever to defend any argument that suggests Sabathia is finally improving because he?s locating it better. It?s about the same. What Sabathia?s recent run of success stems from is actually pretty simple, though, it seems. It?s simply a matter of throwing more strikes to get ahead in the count on the first pitch. But this is a game of adjustments, as noted above. Opposing hitters swung 42.42 percent of the time against Sabathia?s sinker in the month of April. They put the ball in play 24.24 percent of the time. Since May? Opposing hitters are only swinging 14.04 percent of the time on first-pitch sinkers. Opposing hitters tried to adjust to the fact that Sabathia couldn?t throw strikes. Unfortunately, when hitters stopped swinging, Sabathia started throwing more strikes, getting ahead in the count, and relying on his cutter/slider/changeup to get outs. Hitters will adjust back. They?ll start swinging more, and when they do, Sabathia will get whacked but he?s the exact same below-replacement pitcher that he was before. Will that happen today? We wish we knew but you can be damn sure we are going to be attacking Sabathia when he?s overpriced and favored on the road like he is here.