guys
i am 55 and have tried as many "systems" in all kinds of gaming as you can think of. about the only one that i know for sure ever worked was the card counting in blackjack when it was only one deck. of course, by the time it got on print, vegas quickly added more decks as more people became wise.
other than that, when it comes to either the nfl or baseball, which is all i can talk about, it boils down to looking for excellent value by doing your handicap. whatever historical data exists is exactly that: historic averages. they help, but are not the whole picture.
i looked at some umpires records for 1999 and 2000, and as i remember, some names stood out, as they were on the high side one year, say over 13-6 and then on the low side the next, something like 6-13. these are extremes, but maybe explain why the system will tend to reverse itself after a certain number of weeks and from year to year. what does that tell us? not much, i must say. every single game they umpire is a different set of circumstances, which tend to change from time to time.
now, let's suppose that there is a strong tendency for certain umpires to go one way or the other, do you think the linesmakers are idiots? they see where the money is going on certain pitchers, umpires, etc. and the anticipate by inflating or deflating the lines as they anticipate which way the betting will come.
seems to me that the best way to approach the game is to do your own handicapping and catch the linesmakers off, precisely because of people playing systems, trends, etc., which forces them to adjust the opening line. that is where the money is, and it is our jobs to search, handicap and cash in.
exactly the same happens in the nfl, as people are swayed to certain teams that looked good in their last outing, vegas anticipates the betting side and "presses" the line the other way, mainly for the purpose of balancing their books. i am not immune to this factor; i am still working on it.
a recent case in point was last sunday, when tb was playing clev at home. burba is not exactly a super pitcher, and his opponent showed some real good signs. there were a set of circumstances that made tb an excellent value at +210 and the result was never in doubt throughout the game. now, the next time that tb pitcher comes out, the odds should reflect the improvement, and if they don't i will jump on it again IF THE ODDS AND CIRCUMSTANCES are right, otherwise i may just pass and look for opportunity elsewhere.
as a matter of fact, if i may just bring this to a conclusion: if i have to look at an umpire's record to make up my mind on a pick, i probably should not be playing that game. an extra tool to reinforce a strong opinion, yes. that is all it should be.
i have not seen the sight, and know capone is one of the good guys, so please take this as positive criticism or another man's opinion, whichever.
pep
