Tip from a pro(Jacksonville/Indianapolis game)

[Toby Scot]

I have posted here a couple times in the past and some of you might know who I am. I'm one of the top NFL handicappers in the country the last eight years documented by the sports monitor of oklahoma.This angle is for the Jacksonville backers who might want to put this in their arsenal for future years. Remember there are no locks but as far as value in the NFL you can't get much better than this.

The angle is to play on any 3-0 home team in week 4 who is favored by 3- or less or is a homeunderdog if their opponent is off a win.(excluding strike years)
= NO RESPECT
( 11-1 straight up) ( 12-0 ats)
Since 1978

1979 Rams -3 at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY 21-6

1979 Dallas -3 at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND 26-7

1980 BUFFALO -2- Raiders
BUFFALO 24-7

1988 CINCINNATI -3- Cleveland
CINCINNATI 24-17

1990 RAIDERS -1- Chicago
RAIDERS 24-7

1991 NEW ORLEANS -3 Minnesota
NEW ORLEANS 26-0

1993 San Francisco -1 at NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS 16-13

1995 ST. LOUIS -1- Chicago
ST. LOUIS 34-28


1996 INDIANAPOLIS -2- Miami
INDIANAPOLIS 10-6

1996 Green Bay -7 at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA 30-21

1998 New England -7 at NEW ORLEANS
New England 30-27

1999 ST. LOUIS -3- San Francisco
ST. LOUIS 42-20

2002 New England -3 at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO 21-14


The NFL is about respect and Jacksonville is getting none. They beat them last year and it really doesn't matter how you win your games and who you played. Stats are of minimal value for predicting games in the NFL in the first 4 games of the season. The LAW OF AVERAGES is the best way.

Seems to me this game resembles the 2002 superbowl.

Oakland -4 Tampa Bay
(offense vs defense)
( public team vs blue collar)

Something else that looks familiar

2001 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis 45-24 NYJETS
INDIANAPOLIS 42-26 Buffalo
Indianapolis 13-44 NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS 18-23 Oakland
INDIANAPOLIS 17-38 New England

2004 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


Indianapolis 31-17 TENNESSEE
INDIANAPOLIS 45-31 Green Bay
Indianapolis ? JACKSONVILLE
INDIANAPOLIS ? Oakland
INDIANAPOLIS ? Jacksonville


Bottom line no matter what happens in this game win or lose Jacksonville will always be the value play here against a public team. Give me five games a week like this and I will go 75% every year in the NFL instead of my normal 58 to 64%


Good luck this year Madjack cappers

Toby Scot

 

[Dizzayton]

I agree with your angles and I am not questioning your knowledge or skill, but I disagree that this resembles the Oak/TB Superbowl. With all due respect to Gannon and company, they weren't running as good an offense as Colts. And even though Jax defense is top notch, it is a stretch to think they are as good as TB. Add the homefield into the equation and you might be right, but until the Manning train derails I am riding it to the Superbowl in Jax. I don't think leftwich and co. can hang with Colts, taylor will need to rush for 125+. My instincts tell me that lots of money will be on Jax, will colts be the public play at kick. Good Luck.

 

[IX_Bender]

You both make very valid points. These are the types of posts I like to see and read on the boards.

JAX has not played an offense close to this, but laying over a FG on the road with the Colts defense is poor judgment. I suspect this game might have more action than any other tilt on Sunday, but none of that will come from me.

 

[worm44]

Pro what?

 

[reno4nook]

i think that trends like this don't work too well when the opponent is an elite team like the Colts.

Remember that the Jags are last in the league in offense and are 3 plays away from being 0-3.

 

[NYMess]

WOW. Great thread. good info on both sides of the ball. Heres my two cents. First, don't think that the Jags defense is not as good as TB's superbowl team because by year's end you may be surprised. Jack Del Rio has done a phenomenal job in Fla. and I can't wait for Leftwich to break loose offensively and play the way he did in Marshall. This team should be fun to watch for the remainder of the season.
Second, to reno, last year I believe the Carolina Panthers were 3 plays away from finishing last in their division. That missed PAT by the Bucs was huge in sending Carolina on their way.

Keep up the debate guys, I think MadJack would be proud of this thread.

 

[NYMess]

P.S. Dizzayton, as far as public play by kickoff goes, if you go by the Hilton contest it looks as if both Indy and Jax are popular picks this week. A real toss up and should be a good one to watch.

 

[countinguy]

My take on the game is usually good defense always beats good offense and the colts have absolutely horrible defence. But they can put up 60 pts, will they against jacksonville, i doubtit.

If this game stays low and tight jacksonville could pull off a win.

I am not touching it, because I am a colts fans but my stats favor jaxson. Should be a hell of a good game.

 

[NYMess]

Countinguy,
Isn't it funny how a defensive guru like Dungy goes to an offensive team and has to rely on the offense to win games. Whereas, Brian Billick, an offensive genious in Minn, goes to a defensive team and the Ravens haven't been able to score since they left Cleveland. (No offense Jack). this same thing is going on in college where Mark Richt was known as an offensive guy but his Georgia team relies on the defense to win.

 

[baby johnson]

jax 16-13

 

[bej0101]

don't think jax has the talent to exploit a weak colt defense and see a colt 24/13 victory

 

[BigSlick]

bej is right on....

 

[The Jets Fan]

:iagree:

don't think jax has the talent to exploit a weak colt defense and see a colt 24/13 victory

 

[jewbacca]

I have never heard of a top rated capper that uses such useless trends..... no offense guy but really... you are arguing that"the law of averages" is the best way to go about betting in this situation? if that was the case then your trend of 11-1 SU and 12-0ATS would eventually have to even out. that is the very premise of the law of averages, that everything will eventually even out. in my opinion it sounds like you are trying to drive people to your website.

p.s. Colts win and cover.

 

[GM]

:iagree:
He's a pro you know. He's posted 3 times in a year and a half... you "may know who he is".

Hey, I have posted 2500 times here. You may know who I am too. Or maybe not. Whatever. If you've got to boast about how professional and how good you are, you are too important for us.

I actually agree with his pick. Just don't like the feeling I am about to be sold something, or that I should feel blessed to be in his presence in my home.

 

[Theismann]

Indy will look like a completely different team than they looked last week against the Packers. Remember the Pack had their 2 starting corners out where has Jacksonville does not. They will exploit Indy's Offensive Line and Payton will be shuffling those feet as if he was doing the Texas two-step! Turnovers and the inability to get the ball in the endzone will Equal an Indy loss! Jax 23 Indy 18

 

[MACH1]

Why do you think Peyton can't beat NE? Because they are always in his face and keep the running game in check (James). Peyton gets frustrated when he's shuffling around back there. The last time I looked Jax has only allowed 1 rusher over 100yds the last 17 games.


I don't really see a let down or look ahead here for Jax. They need to beat Indy and since it's n Jax, all the better.

I beg to disagree about Jax has no Talent to compete with Indy. OK, Leftwich could be a liability at times, but Smith and Taylor are pretty damn good and Taylor always has a breakout game. This could be the week, since Indy has many Defensive Injuries. Injuries on a D that can't afford any because they are already ranked 32nd in the NFL.

BTW, Trends don't decide a game, the players do. Trends are for the (Pros).

GL Cappers!!

 

[MACH1]

Indy Injury Report

OUT

SS Mike Doss (Hamstring)
CB Joseph Jefferson (Knee)
FS Bob Sanders (Foot)
WR Troy Walters (Upper Arm Fracture)

DOUBTFUL

FS Idrees Bashir (Groin)

PROBABLE

DE Dwight Freeney (Ankle)
CB Nicholas Harper (Knee)
RB Edgerrin James (Hamstring)
DE Robert Mathis (Groins)



Jax Injury report

OUT

TE Kyle Brady (Finger)

QUESTIONABLE

WR Jermaine Lewis (Groin)
G Vincent Manuwai (Calf)

PROBABLE

DE Lionel Barnes (Shoulder)
CB Juran Bolden (Shoulder)
FB Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala (Foot)

 

[yyz]

Give me five games a week like this and I will go 75% every year in the NFL instead of my normal 58 to 64%

:142lmao:


Hi-Yoooooooooooooo!

 

[weedman]

don't like indy on the road
I'll take jax and the points