TL Season Long Thread

[TLankford]

Will go back and find my 2012 season thread at some point and retrieve my record. Was around 60% the whole season if memory serves. Mostly do SEC plays. My entire goal this year is to not do a single teaser, ever. More than 50% of my losses last year were teases. Pretty silly.

Moved to Austin a couple weeks ago for a new job and better city than fungomery, AL. Job doesn't allow me to do as much internetting as my last one, so I'll probably have fewer plays than most people. Love Texas though and can't wait to see what UT tailgating has to offer on Saturday. Oh and Texas women... :SIB

Back to Business.

Vandy Team Total Under 24.5 vs. OMiss

I do like the under for the whole game, but OMiss O vs. Vandy D is a little bit of a wildcard to me. 2nd year in the Freeze system, I think that Offense could/should put up some decent points against middle/lower tier conference defenses. On the other side, I think Franklin tries to keep the HUNH Rebel O off the field and keep his defense fresh. They should try to run the ball and control the clock and not put too much pressure on the new QB he's breaking in. I don't think that is the kind of style that will put up too many points on the Rebel defense.

If I had to put a number on it I'd say something around Ole Miss winning 21-13

Good Luck MJers

:0003

 

[TLankford]

For what it's worth, Waaaaaaaaay too many people on this site and several others have Fresno.

Normally when that happens... it's a loss and everyone is complaining about something. It smells fishy. And Fresno wasn't good last year. I have no idea why everyone likes them, which makes it easier to not blindly follow the masses on that pick. Trying to stay away from 3 things this year:

1 - Teases
2 - Blindly taking peoples picks
3 - Shit non-bcs games (weekday degenerate games)

Pretty sure I can make some good money if I do this. We'll see

 

[TLankford]

Found my thread from last year.

31-20 Record ~61%

1st pick that year was Vandy TT Under 19.5

 

[capping-guru]

Great to see you back and GL this season! Feel free to post some nice pics of Texas women tailgating!:0074

 

[TLankford]

not a good way to start. wanted to see the 1H of this UGA-USC game before doing anything on it. Have a bet with one of my friends on USC to win the game after going back and forth with him about it for a few days this week. Pulled the trigger on ML for the 2H with some decent odds. Just like betting on spurrier and Murray can't beat USCe apparently.

South Carolina 2H +140

 

[TLankford]

Also took this in a parlay. Not even sure why but I like it

USC/UGA Over 30 2nd Half
1st Half Michigan -160
1st Half Auburn -280

 

[TLankford]

Auburn/ASU Over 60.5

Auburn TT Over 35.5

no time for a writeup but I think we give up some points and score a bunch. somewhere in the 45-28 range

 

[TLankford]

Don't think ASU's offense is gonna do enough to hit that total. Auburn is playing well though. Pretty sure they put another 17-21 up in the 2H.

Auburn -3 -128

bought a half for it.

 

[TLankford]

update the record when I get back from the golf course

real popular pick it seems like, but it's the right one because kentucky is not a good team and UL is solid as a rock

Louisville -14 PUSH

Got one more for right now, probably will be getting on Auburn also and maybe the Under on that game. Game is never very high scoring. 51 is a lot of points for an Auburn-MSU game. Will see about that later.

For now

Texas A&M +5 1st half

Think this game stays pretty tight in the 1st half. Road environment should help A&M early and everyone wills till be fresh. Have a feeling bama could break away in the 2H once they start wearing A&M down, unless they turn the ball over a couple of times. Can't get a read on that +7.5.

Honestly may end up Taking A&M +280 just because it's really good odds on a team that has a decent chance of pulling off the W

 

[TLankford]

YTD: 2-4-1

Forgot that I never actually posted the AU Under as a play on saturday but it was reasonably easy money and my big win of the day. Won't count it towards the record though since it wasn't listed officially.

Haven't played too many games yet this year but I'm about ready for it on most of these SEC teams and a few other random teams I have a good feel for outside our conference.

Said it before the season i think there will be a decent amount of value in most Auburn games this year. People still think we're that bad and will get raped by any team with talent. Hell there was even a thread here about a possible upset by Arkansas State :mj07:

Here's the key stat for our defense:

With #5 Jake Holland at MLB: 52 points
With #5 on the bench: 12 points

Against Mississippi State on Saturday our REAL MLB - Kris Frost was suspended the 1st Half for targeting ASU's QB and getting ejected. He didn't get in until MSU's 2nd drive in the 2nd half.

With Holland at MLB: 42 plays, 327 yards, 20 points

With Frost at MLB: 26 plays, 78 yards, 0 points

And we just got Justin Garrett back at LB to give us more depth there and hopefully keep #5 on the bench or in hell or somewhere nobody will ever have to see him again.

Our defense is solid without him on the field and have yet to have given up a point in the 4th quarter this year.

having said all that, I don't think we beat LSU this week. Probably a 10% chance. Just because it's Baton Rouge at night. And Les Miles is one of the luckier humans on the planet earth.

I do think the line for this week is a little ridiculous. And I went ahead and put down a pretty big play for me on the game -

Auburn +17 over LSU (bought .5 at -120)

Hopefully we keep the turnover battle close and the game should come down to the wire. Last year my biggest bet of the year was LSU -21 over Auburn, so this is not a homer play. I'm all about betting against Auburn when we are terrible and going to get raped. This isn't 2011 and Marshall got a huge confidence boost in that game Saturday night on the final drive. MSU basically stacked the box all night and made Marshall beat them. Yes - he is terrible on the deep ball. Missed his 4th wide open go route of the season. When/If he starts hitting these for TDs, AU offense is going to be scary. Marshall was really good from 5-25 yards though, and especially on 3rd downs: 5-6 114yards.

I think LSU is gonna gain a decent chunk of yards between the 20s. All 3 games have looked like this for us so far. Our redzone defense is pretty damn solid though and I don't see this game being very high scoring and definitely don't see it being the ass-whoopings we got under Chizik in 09 and 2011 in BR.

Don't know who wins, but the final score is going to be 24-20

Other lines I'll be looking at this week:

Bama 1st Half - anything under 35

Mississippi State -14

Tennessee Florida Under if it's low 50s or better

 

[Corley1011]

If Dak starts, MSU will cover that... MSU needs a blow out win to calm a lot of fans down...

 

[Corley1011]

GL buddy!

 

[TLankford]

:toast:

Will definitely be checking the QB status for your game saturday on that bet.

This one seems too easy, probably not a good sign, but too good looking to pass on.

Clemson 1H TT Over 20.5

Don't see them stumbling out of the blocks here. They've had a tendency in Dabo's tenure to come out firing in the 1H and sit on big leads in the 2H. I don't think 3 TDs is asking too much for the 1H here

:0003

 

[Corley1011]

I highly doubt Russell plays this week. He still wasn't cleared for contact as of last night and with a BYE week on deck I think he rests for LSU.

 

[TLankford]

Ended up playing Bama 1H and MSU -14 to go along with that waaaaay to big Auburn bet and went 2-1 on saturday. Again, I'm terrible with coming back here and updating on mobile while I'm out tailgating, apologies if it matters to anyone.

3-5 YTD

but if I did the whole "units" thing the Auburn game would have put me well in the black. Auburn recovered pretty well after coming out in deer in headlights mode and going down 0-14 in 5 minutes. Thought we were gonna be in trouble, but after everyone settled down and it stopped raining, we looked damn good.

As previously stated... #5 is the worst defensive player in the NCAA. If you watched the game, watch our MLB and then try to find a worse defender in the country. he has to be sucking our Def. Coord's dick. Only reasoning anyone can find for him seeing the field.

Moving on... Went ahead and made a few plays this week (in bold) and have a couple more leans but lines are not out:

Vandy -20
I think Vandy can beat UAB by 3 scores at home, at night.

35-7 Dores

LSU-UGA - Gonna be looking at the total here. Hopefully get something in the high 40s / low 50s. I think both teams make it to the high 20s. Also will probably take LSU Moneyline just because it is good juice for a team that is playing really well on offense.

OMiss +17
If the fighting Hugh Freeze's take care of the ball this one will stay within the number. A lot like the AU-LSU game this past weekend, Bama could blow them out or it could be a single digit win. Bama has not been that impressive on offense this year. The OLine isn't what it has been the last 4 years.

31-21 Elephants

UF -14
Driskell going down for the year was the best thing that could have happened to Florida. He is terrible. Hopefully nobody argues that the guy just makes terrible decisions and wasn't the most cerebral player most of the time I watched him. They didn't ask Murphy to do a whole lot when he was in there because of a decent running game, but he at least looked more composed and calm in the game. That defense is RAW. Kentucky getting into Double-Digits in this game will be an accomplishment.

28-6 Gators

Texas A&M -whatever

Arkansas is bad again. Rutgers coughed the ball up 3 times and still won. Bielema - you're drunk. A defense that gives up 400 yards to RUTGERS is not setting themselves up for success against Johnny Football. It will be a name your score game offensively for A&M. Their defense is not great but will still be able to hold Arkansas under 30. Hoping this line comes out under 4TDs.

62-27 A&M

 

[ejthree]

Really like your Ole Miss pick...Was shocked to see 17....gl:0074

 

[TLankford]

:toast:

Just saw Vegas Insider had an opening line on the Arkansas-TAM game at TAM-3

if the line comes out there TA&M moneyline will be my play of the year

:0003

 

[Jord20]

Vandy -20
I think Vandy can beat UAB by 3 scores at home, at night.

35-17 Dores

That's only an 18 point win you are predicting. You are on Vandy though, right? :shrug:

 

[TLankford]

That's only an 18 point win you are predicting. You are on Vandy though, right? :shrug:

:mj07: too early for a monday post and lots of coffee. that was supposed to be a 7 instead of 17

corrected :0008

Saw you like UGA. You think they're man enough on their front 7 on defense to stop that running attack? Should be a hell of a game

 

[Jord20]

:mj07: too early for a monday post and lots of coffee. that was supposed to be a 7 instead of 17

corrected :0008

Saw you like UGA. You think they're man enough on their front 7 on defense to stop that running attack? Should be a hell of a game

LOL.. I figured that or 45-17.

I do like UGA. I think they are ready and battle tested after facing Clemson and SC, and then taking a breather last week vs UNT.

I'm thinking they can score early and often enough to make LSU do some other things instead of pound them to death. LSU has performed well, but I don't think they have seen the goods yet. I think their D gets exposed a bit, and their offense isn't creative enough to score as much as they will need to.

GL

:toast: