To Hellah10

[Mick Onofrio]

I had to start a new thread for this because yours was a bit crowded. I saw your post about the Bowling Green/Central Mich matchup and for what it's worth here are my numbers:

Central Michigan at Bowling Green
Actual Line: BGU -27
My Calculated Line: BGU -18.15 thru -22.56 (avg BGU -20.36)
Play On Central Mich +27 -Line is off apprx. 4.5 thru 9 points and off an avg of 6.5 making this one of the stronger plays of my program. Nice call and good eye spotting an overvalued Bowling Green favorite. I anticipate a cover here. Good Luck.

 

[Joe De]

just a little input...did you calculate the Central Michigans quarterback is doubtful to play??

 

[Mick Onofrio]

personell doesn't matter

personell doesn't matter

when a line is inflated it's inflated. oddsmakers know what teams will be heavily bet regardless of how many points they are given

last week's examples:
Michigan
NC State
Virginia
TCU
Hawaii
Florida
Louisville

 

[hellah10]

good luck to both of us Mick

 

[hellah10]

just a little input...did you calculate the Central Michigans quarterback is doubtful to play??

he`s out for the season joe...

 

[Got5onIt]

line is up to BG -29

 

[Nickelback]

Mick,

But none of those teams that you mentioned as examples had their starting QB out! Joe De makes a valid point as computer programs are wonderful when everyone is playing who has played before in the games used to establish the program itself. But when the grass is not all green on both sides, the numbers could be off a little.

I'm not saying BG is the play here. . . but when a QB is out for the side that your program picks, you have to question your numbers!

Best of luck. . . I hope you and Hellah win big on this one.

 

[hellah10]

i`ll say it again...for the 3274982th time....

THE BACK UP IS BETTER - HE OWNS 5 OFFENSIVE RECORDS AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN

thank you