Today could be your last baseball bet.

[SmashMouth]

If you played Randy johnson, Pedro, and Maddux yesterday,
And now you are going to listen to a million guys with more money than you and more knowledge tell you to bet Oswalt and Schilling. I'm telling you this is flawed thinking and it is chasing.
Don't do it!!!!
Just imagine schilling ending the 7th inning and leaving with a 1-0 lead. Do you wanna watch the dBack bullpen try to hold that lead.
I forsee a very painful lesson for alot of people today. No matter what anyone tells you it is not worth the risk tonight if you are down big to try and catch up this way. If schilling loses tonight there will be people jumping in front of trains, in Divorce court, don't be A fool. You have been warned. It's your money. Well it was.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Maybe we can wait until a month goes into the season before we surmise that -200+ chalk is a money drain. I personally don't play anything over -170 only because I'm not comfortable with it, but taking dogs blindly over +200 will also drain your bankroll. Gotta pick your spots

 

[SmashMouth]

Well Bobby I don't know how you bet, but if you tried to win 200 on each of these Maddux, Pedro , and Rj yesterday. You are in the hole over 1500. So If you want to win it back or part of it, by betting Schilling, and he loses It could end your season. That is all i'm saying. There were Probabaly services out there that gave these, and now they are going to tell these idiots who pay to play oswalt and schilling heavy.
If you are up considerably, that would be the only time to play big chalk when you think your pitcher will dominate and get you 8 innings. Not the first month when the pitcher will probably go seven. I know guys who were given the Red sox at that price.
How could anyone bet on that bullpen at that line?

 

[Vegas Dave]

I agree with you there.....

but even more so, how come people don't wait at least a week or two into the season to see what is going on? Who knows how some teams might play. Maybe there will be a surprise team this year, maybe there will be a disappointing team this year.

It is so hard to make your plays when you are basing them on how the teams should play on paper or how a team has played in spring training.

 

[SmashMouth]

I agree with you there.....

but even more so, how come people don't wait at least a week or two into the season to see what is going on? Who knows how some teams might play. Maybe there will be a surprise team this year, maybe there will be a disappointing team this year.

It is so hard to make your plays when you are basing them on how the teams should play on paper or how a team has played in spring training.

That is very smart thinking. Speaking for myself I am a degenerate and could never sit out completely. That said you have to be conservative. It is a marathon not a race.

 

[TJBELL]

Well said Smash!! Seems like we have ALL been burned by the BIG chalk!!!!

The MLB season is long. Pace yourself and play small favs/dogs or whatever. Just skip the big favs!!!!!

Saw a money management system at Cov***.com, that said wait until the team you like (pick 4 or go against 4) hit their 1st game, and start riding that team. when they lose, you get off them. when they win, you keep increasing your wager. This way, if your team is on a winning streak, you are on them as well. If they are on a losing streak, you have already stopped at game #1.

Who knows. Like riding a winning streak and hopping off (after a loss) that way you do NOT ride ANY losing streaks EVER!! :shrug:

 

[slvrblet]

very sound message.....hope the newer baseball betters heed your warning. a great public service announcement.....you are a true humanitarian....

 

[SmashMouth]

Tj I like that system.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

My point is only that you can't blindly go against stud pitchers and expect to win money only because their such high favorites. The stats below are from 2002 based on a "to win $100" betting system in the games that the pitcher started. The source is another site. The leaders in games that they started are:

Name Team Team W-L % $
K.Rueter SF 28-9 75.7 $1,960
B.Zito OAK 29-7 80.6 $1,900
H.Nomo LA 25-9 73.5 $1,847
R.JohnsonARI 29-7 80.6 $1,325
S.Ponson BAL 17-11 60.7 $1,325
D.Moss ATL 21-7 75 $1,317
K.Lohse MIN 21-10 67.7 $1,260
P.MartinezBOS 23-7 76.7 $1,235
W.Miller HOU 20-6 76.9 $1,190
J.Schmidt SF 22-10 68.8 $1,155
T.Ohka MON 19-12 61.3 $1,050
K.MillwoodATL 24-12 66.7 $1,000
J.Fogg PIT 18-15 54.5 $985
R.Lopez BAL 17-11 60.7 $960
J.JenningsCOL 19-13 59.4 $925
D.Wells NYY 23-9 71.9 $912
D.Lowe BOS 22-10 68.8 $825
Ra.Ortiz ANA 22-13 62.9 $773
G.Maddux ATL 24-11 68.6 $760
E.Milton MIN 19-12 61.3 $735
J.Lackey ANA 14-7 66.7 $725
R.Drese CLE 14-12 53.8 $715
T.WakefieldBOS 11-4 73.3 $710
T.Driskill BAL 10-9 52.6 $700
J.WashburnANA 24-13 64.9 $690
B.Jones SD 10-9 58.8 $660
K.Benson PIT 14-11 56 $660
D.Wright CHW 19-14 57.6 $652
C.Pavano FLA 6-2 75 $620
C.Finley STL 11-5 68.8 $610
M.Asencio KC 11-10 52.4 $597
M.CallawayANA 5-1 83.3 $590
B.Penny FLA 14-10 58.3 $590
R.HalladayTOR 20-14 58.8 $545
An.Benes STL 12-7 63.2 $535
A.Sele ANA 16-10 61.5 $535
M.Mulder OAK 21-11 65.6 $517
E.Loaiza TOR 13-12 52 $515
Jo.SantanaMIN 9-5 64.3 $510

There's alot of these guys at the top that have some lines consistently in the 200 range when they start.

 

[SmashMouth]

Point taken but you better have a bankroll to ride out the storm.
I noticed you were just as well off betting Sidney ponson Every Start as Randy Johnson.

So To make 1300 on Jonson last year he had to win 80 percent of his games. (that is only the wons he got decisions in)
Not much of return on investment if you asked me.

Thanks for posting that.. I did find some value.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Vegas Dave....Understand what you are selling, but in reality, not very effective.

Look at the A's in 2001: Started out 8-18, then win 100 games on the season.

Look at the Angels in 2002: Started out 6-14, then go on to win 99 and the World Series.

There is no one right way to approach it, except money management. Pure and simple.

I ain't know jenyus, butt eye dunn fingered dat mutch out.

 

[SmashMouth]

exactly

 

[SmashMouth]

Looks like a scary couple of innings for the "Double UP ON Schilling GUYS"
Soory for the ulcer yopu are getting.