Tonight and Saturday's Picks

thom24ad

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-Had West Virginia - 14 Wednesday Night, Win

107 Rutgers @
108 Louisville -21.5

Louisville -21.5 Win

-When I first saw this game I was leaning Rutgers but after looking at the numbers, Louisville -21.5 is the good play.
In the last 3 years Rutgers are 14-5 as an underdog. On the road they score an average of 28.5 ppg and 405 total yards of offense. Their defense on the road gives up an average of 329 total yards and 17.2 ppg.
Louisville in the last 3 years is 7-1 as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. They are 4-0 this year and in the last 3 years they are 11-4 in all home lined games. Louisville offense at home puts up an average of 57.7 ppg and a total of 520 yards. Defensively they allow an average of 57 total rushing yards, 246 yards passing, and 17.7 ppg.
I think Louisville is the best possible play in this game and I just don't like the total in this one. I don't think the Rutgers are going to score a lot. But if Bush doesn't play the score could stay between 2-3 TDs and then its possible to have a shootout on our hands.



113 N.C. State @
114 Boston College 40.5

Over 40.5

-N.C. State on the road scores 18.7 ppg. Their defense allows an average of 298 total yards and 18.7 ppg.
Boston College at home puts up an average of 443 total yards and 32.4 ppg. The Eagles defense allows an average of 16.4 ppg and 268 total yards.
I like the over because I see a blowout game. N.C. State has been a decent road team but Boston College has dropped their last two on the road and will be hungry for a win. I see this game staying in the averages BC scoring about 30 points and NC State putting up TDs.

117 UCONN @
118 Pittsburgh -12

UCONN +12

-UConn on the road scores 28.5 ppg and puts up an average of 257 yards total. UConn defense is gives up a lot of points on the road an average of 28.5 and 322 total yards.
Pittsburgh at home scores an average of 33 ppg and a total offense of 376 yards. Their defense on the road 19.2 ppg and an average of 306 total yards.
UConn won by 12 points last year and think they are rather similar to the Rutgers who they lost to on the road by 2 points. Pittsburgh also played the Rutgers and lost by 8 points. I see this game staying close therefore I like getting the double digits.

123 Illinois @
124 Purdue -23

Illinois +23

-This is another hunch bet. I took Purdue last week on a hunch and won the only game they have covered all season. Two bad defense of teams Illinois on the road gives up 36.5 ppg and Purdue at home allows 32.4 ppg. Two bad teams both fighting to get a win. I see a close game between these two teams. Let's just hope the Illini show up to fight.

125 Indiana @
126 Michigan -25

Michigan -25

-This is an easy one! Blowout for Michigan at home. Indiana on the road gives up an average 34.5 ppg and Michigan at home scores an average 29 ppg and defense only allows and 16.4 ppg at home. Its pretty clear Michigan is back on track and Indiana doesn't stand a chance in the big house.

129 Navy @
130 Notre Dame -23.5

ND -23.5

-I know their are some Navy backers but you guys are nutz! I heard this stat Wednesday night's game and Navy only has 6 returning starters and 7 new starters on defense. ND is playing like a veteran offense thats been running those play for years. Navy doesn't stand a chance with their inexperience.
ND is 7-1 in all lined games and their offense at home scores an average of 40.5 ppg. Navy defense allows an average of 21 ppg. Navy offense scores points but the teams they have played this year a joke. I look to see ND defense tighten up over the next several weeks as they make a run for a BCS Bowl.

143 Iowa @
144 Wisconsin -2.5

Wisconsin -2.5

-I have struggled with this one all week long but after looking at the numbers I like Wiscy. Wiscy is 4-0 at home in all lined games. At home the Badgers score an average of 43.2 ppg and 191 total rushing yards. Their defense at home allow 21.2 ppg.
Iowa on the road scores an average of 17.5 ppg. On defense on the road they allow 24.7 ppg and they allow 172 rushing and 438 total yards.
Iowa is a terrible road team where Wiscy is a very good home team and Wiscy is one of the toughest places to play for opposing teams. I like giving points at home especially under a FG.

155 Auburn @
156 Georgia -3

Georgia -3

-This is an awful game to bet, both teams are scary similar. Auburn on the road scores an average of 33.3 ppg and Georgia at home scores an average of 33 ppg. Georgia on defense 13.7 ppg while Auburn has been suspect on the road allowing an average of 21.3 ppg. I think that and Shockley will be the difference maker in the game. If Shockley doesn't go down Georgia is still undefeated. Georgia in my opinion is still the best team in the SEC. Auburn kicked Georgia ass last year 24-6, Georgia gets their revenge at home this weekend.

157 FSU @ -1.5
158 Clemson

FSU -1.5

-Taking Colin Cowheard's pick on this. A must win for FSU and Clemson at home gives up about 3 TDs per game.

163 Kansas @
164 Texas -33

Texas -33

-Your Kansas backers are just as crazy as the Navy backers. Texas 8-1 in all lined game and at home 51.2 ppg and 500 total yards. Texas at home on defense allows 11.7 ppg. Kansas on the road an awful 11 ppg and someone said they a have a solid defense but I have to disagree and cause on the road they give up 28.7 ppg. I said it in a thread earlier this week but God help Kansas cause its going to be an ass beating.

177 Stanford @
178 Oregon St -6

Oregon St -6

-Taking Colin Cowheard's pick.

181 Arkansas @ 41
182 Mississippi -1

Under 41

-I was thinking Arkansas but after looking at their numbers on the road I have changed my mind. On the road the Razor Backs score 16.7 ppg. Mississippi at home only allows 12.7 ppg and they score 16 ppg. No offense in this game I see the total going under.

187 LSU @ -3
188 Bama

LSU -3

-Well what scares me is everyone is on LSU to move the line from a PK to -3. Its awful tough to go against Bama, at home, and undefeated. But this morning I did hear that Bama's best offensive lineman is out which will hurt an already struggling offense.
LSU in road line game this year they are 3-0 and 10-2 in the last 3 years. While the Tide is 1-5 in home lined games.
LSU on the road scores 35.3 ppg and 438 yards of total offense. LSU defense on the road allows only 14.7 ppg. Bama at home scores 25.3 ppg and their defense allows an unbelievable 8.3 ppg. I just think LSU is the better football team and Bama is just due the loss. The numbers seem to favor LSU. This will be great smash mouth football game.

I had North Carolina, Minn, Minn/MSU Under, Texas Tech, and Florida all circled for the week but after looking at the numbers I decided to scratch these games.

GL to all!
:bigun:
Any and all comments are welcomed!
:mj14:
 
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thom24ad

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Louisville stays in the averages

Louisville stays in the averages

thom24ad said:
107 Rutgers @
108 Louisville -21.5

Louisville -21.5

-When I first saw this game I was leaning Rutgers but after looking at the numbers, Louisville -21.5 is the good play.
Louisville in the last 3 years is 7-1 as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. They are 4-0 this year and in the last 3 years they are 11-4 in all home lined games. Louisville offense at home puts up an average of 57.7 ppg and a total of 520 yards. Defensively they allow an average of 57 total rushing yards, 246 yards passing, and 17.7 ppg.
I think Louisville is the best possible play in this game and I just don't like the total in this one. I don't think the Rutgers are going to score a lot.
:

-After looking at the numbers I had a feeling that tonight's game was going to play out a like Wednesday's game West Virginia @ Cincy. A lot of people were on the over and the chalk as well in that game but just like tonight's game the only problem was the other team. Once again the favorites do what they are suppose to by covering the chalk but the other team fails to put points to help the over.
 

thom24ad

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I just looked back at my page

I just looked back at my page

I have hit my last four games
Sunday Night: Wash
Monday Night: Indy *large play
Wednesday Night: West Virginia
Firday Night: Louisville

Great start to the week 4-0!

:mj14:
 

thom24ad

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Starting to wonder about that statement

Starting to wonder about that statement

thom24ad said:
UConn won by 12 points last year and think they are rather similar to the Rutgers who they lost to on the road by 2 points. Pittsburgh also played the Rutgers and lost by 8 points. I see this game staying close therefore I like getting the double digits.
-Rutgers looked awful tonight, I kind of thought UConn and Rutgers are some what similar teams this year. Man, I hope thats not the case.
 
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thom24ad

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Starting to lean towards South Carolina

Starting to lean towards South Carolina

Haven't decided if I am going to play this one. Florida isn't the greatest road team and S.C. has been decent at home this year. SC has won their last four straight 2 on the road and 2 at home. Florida hasn't look too impressive the last couple weeks where SC has looked very good. I like the Gamecocks to win at home.
 
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