Kansas City(+3)(-118) over New York Giants (1.50*)
The condensed version, seriously:
(1) In capping football, I like lots of different games for lots of different reasons.
(2) In the ebb and flow of a season, and right into crunch time in December, no situation comes to mind that I like any better than a performing team that has the look of responding off an (a) tough loss, and/or (b) embarassing loss, that catches another emerging team that might have it's guard down just a hair after one or more games of (a) investing a lot against a big opponent, and/or (b) escaping with less than it's best without paying for it where it hurts, in the standings. (It is important to reference that you can tweak the situation with somewhat different charaterizations of either side, like Cincinnati after their Gatorade Bowl, with regard to why they might be flat or keyed up in the situation being analyzed, and get much the same formula for a winning play.) What seems to happen is that a real emotional difference - nothing contrived or merely ordinary - grips the staff and squad to a man, and gets invested and nurtured from Monday going forward, and in a game ruled by emotion and matchups, finally becomes measureble on the field in effortless cuts and catches, blocks that are initiated in and held for an extra fraction of a second, vs. audible "damns" being muttered over missed assignments and tackles, etc. However, you have to be ever vigilant for countervailing emotional keys that a team might rally around (or fail to respond from), like getting up to play the World Champs or a division rival would be garden variety examples . . . Not a high percentage of duds or a stifling percentage of losers in those situations, IMO.
(3) The defining characteristic of my NFL season to date has been the uncharacteristic ease with which I've seen the situations for what they were while going from 9-12 to 35-25 with my plays. (And when other committments don't intrude, I'm beyond cursory and approach thorough in my research to support or shoot holes in my takes, or I wouldn't consider them worthy of sharing with this esteemed board.)
(4) The season is a marathon and not a sprint and I try to keep an open mind in order to adapt and adjust, and the Chiefs on the field have been transforming my opinion with their development right on through QB Trent Green leading a familiarly flawed KC team past Oakland in possibly the most emotional game in the league this season (I loved Buffalo hosting KC the following week, and the Chiefs beat themselves in that one by not finishing with the little things that an embarrassed Buffalo team managed to do, FWIW).
(5) The newspaper column, "Defense, show us something," on the KC defense on the eve of the 12/4/05 Denver game, is as good as any I've read during the course of this season when it comes to my research influencing my pulling the trigger on a play this season. (Since you have to register at the website for access to the article, it's reprinted below instead of just including the link
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/football/nfl/kansas_city_chiefs/13321831.htm ) . . . So what happens? I'd say holding Denver to six second half points and sealing the deal with an instant replay reversal on a fourth down stuff was nailing the essence of the Denver game in my capping.
(6) On to last week, and I saw a Kansas City team that was gaining momentum and might actually overcome the emotional aspects of KC being a bit cocky and too sure of themselves, but on the other side I kept seeing a Dallas team that to a man was going to find a way to win a game they had to have to keep a season of such promise from essentially petering out so many weeks short of the final week of the season. In the final analysis, I had to conclude the KC @ Dallas game was the equal of any game on last week's card (but without the line value of Cleveland @ Cincinnati) when it came to the type of profitable wagering scenario I hope to identify in advance (without benefit of 20/20 hindsight). Still thinking I was playing with a bit of fire in opposing Kansas City as a dog, I was wavering on the play all weekend, and I REALLY only wanted to lay 2' points, but I finally pulled the trigger in favor of Dallas(-3) over Kansas City (by an interesting coincidence, becoming my late game of choice over the alternative of taking an embarrassed Philadelphia team as a sizable home dog against their division rivals and the division leading NY Giants) . . .
So what happens? In the first half, two big plays by Dallas, including a game changing fumble and score going the other way just before intermission to put Dallas up by three, can't change the fact that going to the lockerrom, sideline interviews establish that HC Vermeil really likes how his team is playing and HC Parcells feels like his guys are getting outplayed; a halftime line of Pk looks like such a tempting hedge, but I nevertheless decide to ride it out. Kansas City probably outplays Dallas to the same extent in the second half, but there is no quit in Dallas, and they manage to squeak through at -3 and Pk for the second half (i.e., I could of had two pushes) with a miraculous but justified holding call after Dallas appeared to have been denied at the goal line, but not without a further near miracle of KC's own making having to fall short with a missed field goal . Meanwhile, Philadelphia is headed for overtime before being dispatched by them Giants.
(7) On to this week's card, and this here game that features a matchup between . . . anyone? . . . Bueller? . . . anyone?
(8) HC Vermeil has a well-constructed team for Giants stadium at this time of year in the G-men's ninth and final home game of the season, and is brandishing a good feel from the saddle in using what he's got.
(9) This succinct take from Clem D is relevant on whether my research supports or shoots holes in my gut feeling from last Sunday night: "Hate pulling the trigger against the Gmen but can see KC running the ball at will in this game with Green hitting his spots as the run opens up things. Gmen are so banged up. Pierce loss is devastating for run stoppage. O line is banged up badly. Chiefs are desperate and I think they win outright here."
(10) It's not my play of the year, and it might not finish as my play of the week.
(11)
Field of Dreams: "Go, Graham! Go, kid! . . . Come on, Archie! . . . He looks like a baby next to those guys. . . . He is. Let's go. . . Watch it, boy! . . . Don't let him shake you up. Hang in there!. . . Knuckles, what did you throw at the kid for? . . . He winked at me . . . Don't wink, kid . . . Good thing for you he didn't throw the fastball. . . . Let's see that fastball. . . . Ball . . . Hey! Come on. Give us a break! . . . Hey, ump - How about a warning? . . . Sure. Watch out you don't get killed. . . . Time! . . . Time! . . . Those first two were high and tight. So what do you think the next one will be? . . . Either low and away or in my ear. . . He's not going to want to load the bases. So look for low and away. . . . Right . . . . But watch out for in your ear. . . . "
Translation: The pick might still be a dud.
GL
with those plays that I do commit to early. "No thank you" is my only response when it comes to being on the other side of both of these plays, but I'll keep my eyes open for reasons to think otherwise. I'll try to put together a write-up on Kansas City vs. NY Giants if I can make the time . . . Also have definite leans on Minnesota(+3), Indianapolis(-7'), New England(-4'), and Cincinnati(-7'), and still others are looking tempting, but I haven't given any of them the time they will recieve . . . FWIW, my calls (verbal, not posted) made before the last two weeks of games were that Seattle would beat Tampa in the NFC title game before losing to Indy in Super Bowl XXXX, and Minnesota would make the playoffs and be bounced by at least 8 points in their first playoff game. 