I've decided to go with one single thread for all of my tournament thoughts/plays. . . so here we go:
Thoughts:
Arizona did not get as shafted as everyone believes. In fact, I like how every potential game comes up for them: they have much greater depth than Cincy or the Zags which helps to play one of them on Saturday, they have a few days to prepare for a physical battle with Illinois, then could potentially catch Kansas in the Elite Eight if the Jayhawks make it that far and Arizona's key in the first matchup was superior depth. Finally, they have a few days to prepare for Kentucky which will be essential to come up with a gameplan and work on handling the ball.
Obviously I am like most fans amazed at the lack of thinking by the selection committee especially with Arizona/Kentucky, but its easy to pick on them every year regarding certain decisions. Still, it was obvious that Kentucky and Arizona are the top two teams in the land and to have them potentially face off in the Final Four instead of the championship game is just pure ignorance as it looks like the committee threw the brackets together at the last minute.
Tournament Dogs are the ONLY way to go. . . think about it. . . there are always a lot of upsets (unless we are talking about the #1,#2, or #3 seeds) which means the dog automatically covers. . . if the favorite wins, you still have a shot with the points. I especially like dogs that played well on the road during the year. . . two come to mind from the numbers I have: Penn and Gonzaga are both playing higher seeded teams with road records that are not as impressive.
My predicted Final Four: Kentucky (easy choice), Arizona (of course I have to believe in my team), Texas (should have a huge advantage playing in San Antonio provided they win the first two games), and Syracuse (gotta pick at least one team that isn't a #1 seed and I don't think Miss. State gets it done like some believe).
Championship: Arizona 94 Texas 87
On with my early picks:
Bama laying 1 over Indiana. . . a higher seed that is favored or a suprisingly shallow favorite is an automatic play for me. Bama got in, now they prove they belong in the tourney.
Tulsa +2 over Dayton. . . same reasoning as above. . . #13 seed only getting 2 points? Any fool can wake up in the morning, head down to Vegas, look at the bracket, see this line on the board and pick Dayton based on seeding!
Zags +1 over Cincy. . . should be a tough game, but the Zags have a great road record while Cincy got to this tournament from playing at home.
Weber State +7 and ML over Wisky. . . gotta ride the streak
Wisconsin Milwaukee +5 and ML over Notre Dame. . . one of these #12 seeds will win but I think both Weber and WM advance.
Central Michigan +4 over Creighton. . . I believe CMU will beat Duke and get to the Sweet Sixteen!
Penn +3 over Oklahoma State. . . Quackers are solid on the road and I expect them to continue to play well the first game.
BYU +4 over UConn. . . in my bracket, I have UConn winning until they face Texas, but from a betting perspective, this is the only way to go. I expect at least two #12 seeds to win outright and wouldn't be shocked to see three or all four
Will look at the other games, but as I said, will stick to mostly dogs . . . especially those where the line looks funny based on the seeding by a tournament committee that we already know was not the sharpest unit in the history of the NCAA Tournament!
Best of luck to everyone and go Wildcats (Arizona of course!)
Thoughts:
Arizona did not get as shafted as everyone believes. In fact, I like how every potential game comes up for them: they have much greater depth than Cincy or the Zags which helps to play one of them on Saturday, they have a few days to prepare for a physical battle with Illinois, then could potentially catch Kansas in the Elite Eight if the Jayhawks make it that far and Arizona's key in the first matchup was superior depth. Finally, they have a few days to prepare for Kentucky which will be essential to come up with a gameplan and work on handling the ball.
Obviously I am like most fans amazed at the lack of thinking by the selection committee especially with Arizona/Kentucky, but its easy to pick on them every year regarding certain decisions. Still, it was obvious that Kentucky and Arizona are the top two teams in the land and to have them potentially face off in the Final Four instead of the championship game is just pure ignorance as it looks like the committee threw the brackets together at the last minute.
Tournament Dogs are the ONLY way to go. . . think about it. . . there are always a lot of upsets (unless we are talking about the #1,#2, or #3 seeds) which means the dog automatically covers. . . if the favorite wins, you still have a shot with the points. I especially like dogs that played well on the road during the year. . . two come to mind from the numbers I have: Penn and Gonzaga are both playing higher seeded teams with road records that are not as impressive.
My predicted Final Four: Kentucky (easy choice), Arizona (of course I have to believe in my team), Texas (should have a huge advantage playing in San Antonio provided they win the first two games), and Syracuse (gotta pick at least one team that isn't a #1 seed and I don't think Miss. State gets it done like some believe).
Championship: Arizona 94 Texas 87
On with my early picks:
Bama laying 1 over Indiana. . . a higher seed that is favored or a suprisingly shallow favorite is an automatic play for me. Bama got in, now they prove they belong in the tourney.
Tulsa +2 over Dayton. . . same reasoning as above. . . #13 seed only getting 2 points? Any fool can wake up in the morning, head down to Vegas, look at the bracket, see this line on the board and pick Dayton based on seeding!
Zags +1 over Cincy. . . should be a tough game, but the Zags have a great road record while Cincy got to this tournament from playing at home.
Weber State +7 and ML over Wisky. . . gotta ride the streak
Wisconsin Milwaukee +5 and ML over Notre Dame. . . one of these #12 seeds will win but I think both Weber and WM advance.
Central Michigan +4 over Creighton. . . I believe CMU will beat Duke and get to the Sweet Sixteen!
Penn +3 over Oklahoma State. . . Quackers are solid on the road and I expect them to continue to play well the first game.
BYU +4 over UConn. . . in my bracket, I have UConn winning until they face Texas, but from a betting perspective, this is the only way to go. I expect at least two #12 seeds to win outright and wouldn't be shocked to see three or all four
Will look at the other games, but as I said, will stick to mostly dogs . . . especially those where the line looks funny based on the seeding by a tournament committee that we already know was not the sharpest unit in the history of the NCAA Tournament!
Best of luck to everyone and go Wildcats (Arizona of course!)
