Trend sheet 6/24

cisco

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Hot Pitchers
-- Thompson is 2-0, 3.42 in his last two starts. Nieve is 2-0, 2.13 in two starts for Mets this season.
-- Richmond has a 2.92 RA in his last four starts.
-- Blanton is 2-0, 2.78 in his last five starts.
-- Duke is 4-0, 2.70 in his last four home starts.
-- Lester is 2-1, 1.67 in his last four starts. Stammen is 1-0, 2.31 in his last two starts.
-- Porcello is 7-1, 3.20 in his last nine starts.
-- Braves won last three Kawakami home starts (1-0, 3.00).
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Blackburn is 4-0, 1.99 in his last eight starts.
-- Armadillosports.com is America's favorite website.
-- Dodgers won seven of last eight Wolf starts. White Sox won last five Floyd home starts (2-0, 2.02).
-- Haren is 3-0, 1.66 in his last five starts. Padilla is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Marquis is 5-1, 2.60 in his last seven starts. Saunders is 2-1, 2.37 in his last four home starts.
-- Giants won four of last five Johnson starts.


Cold Pitchers
-- Arroyo is 0-3, 7.27 in his last three road starts.
-- Garza is 0-3, 4.71 in his last five starts.
-- Pavano is 0-1, 13.97 in his last couple starts.
-- Harden is 0-2, 6.88 in his last three starts.
-- Chamberlain is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts; Bronx has won six of his last eight outings.
-- Berken is 0-3, 7.59 in his last four starts.
-- Looper is 0-1, 7.97 in his last four starts.
-- Oswalt is 2-2, 4.52 in his last seven starts. Hochevar is 1-2, 8.40 in three road starts.
-- Gonzalez is 1-4, 7.59 in seven big league starts.
-- Geer is 0-2, 7.72 in his last four starts. Mariners lost both Morrow starts (0-1, 3.86, only seven IP).

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight games.
-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight road games. Nationals won four of their last six games.
-- Cubs won four of their last six games. Tigers won last five games, scoring 33 runs.
-- Marlins won four of their last five games. Orioles won five of their last six games.
-- Astros are 11-6 in their last seventeen home games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Rockies won 17 of their last 19 games.
-- A's won nine of their last thirteen home games. Giants are 13-7 in last 20 games, 7-4 in last eleven on the road.
-- Mariners won seven of their last nine home games.


Cold Teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games, but they're 24-9 on road.
-- Pirates lost last five games, allowing 31 runs. Indians lost six of their last seven games.
-- Reds lost 13 of their last 17 road games. Blue Jays lost six of their last nine home games.
-- Braves are 5-8 in their last 13 games. Bronx Bombers lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last seven home games. Minnesota is 8-16 in its last 24 road games.
-- Royals lost five of their last six games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Arizona lost 14 of its last 20 home games. Rangers lost four of their last five games.
-- Angels lost three of their last four games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last ten games.


Totals
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six games.
-- Four of last six Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Washington home games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Cincinnati road games.
-- Seven of last nine Cub road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Florida games went over the total.
-- Under is 16-7-1 in last 24 games at Miller Park.
-- Six of last seven Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Dodger road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Arizona home games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Marquis starts.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Giants' last ten games.
-- Five of last seven Geer starts went over the total.

Umpires
-- StL-NY-- Favorite won last five Dimuro games.
-- Cin-Tor-- Underdog won four of last seven Hallion games.
-- Phil-TB-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Culbreth games.
-- Clev-Pitt-- Home team won nine of last twelve Winters games.
-- Bos-Wsh-- Four of last five Davidson games went over the total.
-- Chi-Det-- Eight of last nine Fletcher games stayed under the total.
-- NY-Atl-- Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Hoye games.
-- Blt-Fla-- Favorite won nine of last eleven Fairchild games.
-- Min-Mil-- Underdog won seven of last eight Joyce games.
-- KC-Hst-- Underdog is 6-5 in Drake's eleven games behind plate.
-- LA-Chi-- Three of last four Rapuano games went over the total.
-- Tex-Az-- Under is 10-1-1 in last twelve Gorman games.
-- Col-LA-- Last four Cousins games stayed under the total.
-- SF-A's-- Seven of last eight Cooper games went over the total.
-- SD-Sea-- Five of last seven Marsh games went over the total
 

cisco

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BOSTON vs. WASHINGTON
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Washington is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games at home
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

CHI CUBS vs. DETROIT
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

CINCINNATI vs. TORONTO
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

PHILADELPHIA vs. TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore

BALTIMORE vs. FLORIDA
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Florida
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore

NY YANKEES vs. ATLANTA
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
NY Yankees are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

ST. LOUIS vs. NY METS
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Kansas City
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

MINNESOTA vs. MILWAUKEE
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Milwaukee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

LA DODGERS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games at home
Chi White Sox are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers

TEXAS vs. ARIZONA
Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Arizona is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

COLORADO vs. LA ANGELS
Colorado is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Colorado is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games
LA Angels are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home

SAN FRANCISCO vs. OAKLAND
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

SAN DIEGO vs. SEATTLE
San Diego is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Diego is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
 

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Chicago Cubs (34-33) at Detroit (39-31)

The first-place Tigers hand the ball to rising rookie right-hander Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.54 ERA) for the middle game of a three-game set at Comerica Park against the Cubs, who will counter with righty Rich Harden (4-3, 5.27).

In Tuesday night?s opener, Detroit got a two-run, walk-off home run from Ryan Rayburn, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 5-4 victory. The Tigers have won five in row and are on additional streaks of 6-0 at home, 50-21 in interleague contests and a solid 41-12 when hosting National League clubs..

Chicago has now lost seven straight games in American League parks and is just 4-12 in its last 16 road games overall, but the Cubs are 4-1 in their last five interleague contests ? all against the A.L. Central.

In this occasional rivalry, Detroit has won five straight meetings overall and seven of nine since 2000, but the visitor is 7-2 in that same timeframe.

The Tigers have won three in a row and eight of their last nine backing Porcello, with the 20-year-old going 7-1 with a 2.42 ERA in that stretch, allowing 14 runs in 52 innings. Last Thursday, he yielded three runs (one earned) on eight hits and two walks in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 road win over St. Louis. Detroit is 4-1 in Porcello?s last five home starts, where the youngster is 3-2 with a 4.22 ERA. This will be his first career start against Chicago.

The Cubs are 1-2 in Harden?s last three starts, following a five-game win streak behind the 27-year-old. Harden had his worst outing of the season last Friday at Wrigley Field, getting roughed up for seven runs on seven hits and five walks against Cleveland, but Chicago rallied from a 7-0 hole to post an 8-7 win in 10 innings. Chicago is 6-2 in Harden?s last eight outings overall and 7-2 in his last nine against winning teams.

Harden is 2-0 with a solid 2.84 ERA in three road starts this year, and he?s 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA in five career starts against Detroit.

The Cubs carry ?under? trends of 21-10 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 10-3 against winning teams and 14-7 versus right-handed starters. Similarly, the Tigers are on ?under? runs of 11-5 at home and 19-8 versus right-handed starters. However, six of the last seven Cubs-Tigers clashes have topped the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT


Philadelphia (37-31) at Tampa Bay (37-35)

Last year?s World Series participants meet for Game 2 of a three-game series, with the Rays sending right-hander Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83 ERA) to the hill opposite the Phillies? Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.28) at Tropicana Field.

Philadelphia picked up where it left off in the World Series on Tuesday, pounding Tampa Bay and young lefty David Price 10-1. The Phillies, who entered this series coming off a dismal 1-8 homestand, have baseball?s best road mark at 24-9, and they?re 38-16 in their last 54 roadies dating to last season. However, they?re still on a 10-19 nosedive in interleague road contests.

Despite last night?s defeat, Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 12 overall and is on further rolls of 79-33 at the Trop, 44-17 when hosting teams with a winning record, 4-1 in interleague home games and 5-2 against the N.L. East.

Philadelphia took out Tampa Bay in five games in last year?s Fall Classic, with the home team going 4-1. These squads have met 13 times since 2000, and the host has gone 9-4, with the Rays winning five of their last seven clashes at the Trop.

The Rays have lost four of five behind Garza, totaling just nine runs in those four setbacks. On Friday at Colorado, the right-hander allowed four runs on five hits (three homers) and two walks in a 4-3 loss. The 25-year-old is 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA in eight home starts this season, and in his lone career start against the Phillies, Garza got a no-decision in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing four runs on six hits (three homers) and two walks in six innings, with the Rays losing 5-4 in Philadelphia.

The Phillies have lost three in row with Blanton taking the ball, though he?s gotten no-decisions in all three contests. On Friday against Toronto, the beefy right-hander gave up four runs on nine hits (two homers) and two walks in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-7 home loss. In four starts prior to that, Blanton had allowed just six total earned runs over 27 innings (2.00 ERA).

Blanton is 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA in six road outings this year, and he?s 2-3 with a 6.05 ERA in eight career regular-season starts against Tampa Bay, all when he was with Oakland. Additionally, he got the win in a 10-2 home blowout of the Rays in Game 4 of the World Series. With Blanton throwing, the Phils are on runs of 14-6 overall, 9-3 against winning teams and 4-1 on the highway.

The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-2 overall (all in interleague play), 8-4-1 at home, 24-10-1 in interleague home games, 5-0 behind Garza and 5-0-1 in Garza?s last six interleague starts. Likewise, Philadelphia is riding ?under? streaks of 17-9-1 in interleague play, 6-1 in A.L. ballparks and 5-2-1 on artificial turf.

Finally, despite last night?s slugfest, the under is 4-2-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Tampa Bay, including 2-0 in last year?s Fall Classic.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
 

cisco

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
By *********

Streaking

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

Lester had been 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his previous three starts, striking out 34 in 22 innings while limiting opponents to a .099 average, but he wasn't as sharp Thursday against Florida. The left-hander gave up two runs and eight hits over five innings - throwing 110 pitches - in a rain-shortened 2-1 loss that was called in the sixth.

"I think it was a difficult night," Francona said. "Things were rushed. He was even a few minutes late getting ready, just because it was difficult for him. I didn't think he commanded very well. ... (But) he still found a way to give us a chance to win. I think that says a lot."

Lester's lone start against the Nationals (20-48) came June 21, 2006, when he gave up a run and three hits over six innings - striking out 10 - in a 9-3 win.

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox

Chicago gives the ball to Gavin Floyd (4-5, 4.65 ERA), who is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last six starts. The right-hander was denied victories in his last two outings as the bullpen failed to hold the lead.

Bobby Jenks gave up a game-tying homer in the ninth to Detroit on June 11 after Floyd yielded one run in eight innings. In Thursday's 6-5 loss to the Chicago Cubs, Floyd allowed one run in seven innings before the White Sox bullpen gave up five in the final two.

Floyd is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA in two interleague starts this season, but he is 0-3 with a 10.50 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers.

Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins

Nick Blackburn continues to make his case for becoming the new ace of the Minnesota Twins' rotation.

Coming off his first complete game, the right-hander looks for a fifth consecutive winning decision while trying to help the Twins record a sixth straight victory over the struggling Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night at Miller Park.

Blackburn (6-2, 3.09 ERA) allowed one run and six hits in a 5-1 victory over Pittsburgh on Thursday for Minnesota's first complete game since Kevin Slowey did it July 28.

Though Slowey has won 10 games for the Twins (36-36) this season, his ERA is almost a run higher than that of Blackburn, who's 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in his last eight starts.

"(Blackburn's) basically been the stabilizer," pitching coach Rick Anderson told the Twins' official Web site. "It's always nice with a sinkerball guy, because they've got a chance to get you deep in the game."

Blackburn's also fared well in interleague action, going 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA in four starts. His only rough outing came against the Brewers last season when he gave up six runs and nine hits - including four homers - in 4 2-3 innings of a 7-6 win over Milwaukee.
Wednesday is chalk full of quality arms. We searched high and low for jobbers tossing today, but even old reliables like vincent Padilla and Jason Marquis have been performing half decent lately.

We still found one hurler to avoid today, though:

Slumping

Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians

Carl Pavano has been giving up hits early and often recently.

After being hit hard in his past few starts, Pavano looks to bounce back Wednesday night when the Pirates and Indians continue their three-game set at PNC Park.

Pavano (6-5, 5.73 ERA) had a rough April after signing a one-year deal with the Indians (30-42) in the offseason, going 0-3 with a 9.50 ERA.

The veteran right-hander then went 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA over his next eight starts, but has since reverted back to his early-season struggles. He gave up nine runs over 4 2-3 innings in a loss to Kansas City on June 10, then allowed six runs and nine hits over five innings without getting a decision on June 15 in a wild 14-12 loss to Milwaukee.

"I was inconsistent," Pavano told the Indians' official Web site. "They put up runs for me, and my job is to put up zeros, but I didn't do it."

Right shoulder soreness pushed back Pavano's turn in the rotation to Wednesday, and he'll be looking to help the Indians string together consecutive wins for the first time since June 11-12.
 

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Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-165, 8)

The Texas Rangers are in a serious hitting slump.

The Rangers are 11th in the major leagues in runs, third in slugging and second in homers but have been struggling to break out for more than three weeks.

Since scoring 14 runs vs. Oakland on May 30, the Rangers haven?t scored more than six runs in their last 19 games. Meanwhile, they have been held to two runs or less six times and are averaging a measly 3.37 runs in that span.

In Texas? first 49 games, it scored at least six runs 22 times.

Rangers have played under the total in 14 of their last 15 games, and adjustments by oddsmakers haven?t slowed the streak. The stretch began with seven straight games with the total at double digits. For the last three contests, the number has been 8.

A breakout will be a challenge Wednesday, when the Rangers face Arizona righthander Dan Haren, who has pitched at least seven innings and given up no more than two runs in his last five starts.

Pick: Under


Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-165, 8.5)

The Kansas City Royals aren?t just losing games. Their pitching is getting pounded.

Kansas City has lost five in a row and has been outscored by at least five runs in each game. During the slide, the Royals have been outscored, 53-21.

And here?s something else: The Royals have held the lead just twice in their slump, giving it away in the ensuing inning each time.

The starters have pitched just 24 2-3 innings, overworking a bullpen that is last in the majors in saves and near the bottom with a 4.76 ERA. The relievers have an awful 7.97 ERA during the slump.

Kansas City also is an American League-worst 10-19 on the road as it faces Houston and ace Roy Oswalt.

Pick: Astros
 
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