Trend sheet 7/18

[cisco]

Hot Pitchers
-- Kawakami is 2-0, 3.72 in his last four starts. Santana is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts, but Mets lost his last four road outings.
-- Wells is 4-1, 2.94 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton is 2-0, 0.61 in two starts this month. Johnson has a 2.70 RA in his last five starts.
-- Former Cardinal Haren is 6-1, 1.75 in his last nine starts. Wainwright is 2-0, 1.07 in his last three starts.
-- Hammel is 4-1, 2.0 in his last five road starts.
-- Hampton is 1-1, 2.50 in his last three road starts. Dodgers won last six Kershaw starts (4-0, 0.76).

-- Rzepzynski has a 3.00 RA in his first two big league starts.
-- Washburn is 3-1, 2.17 in his last four starts, but Mariners lost his last six road outings.
-- Baker is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three road starts. Rangers won Feldman's last four starts (3-0, 3.65), scoring 29 runs.


Cold Pitchers
-- Morton is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts. Zito is 2-3, 7.09 in his last six starts.
-- Nationals lost last three Zimmermann starts (0-1, 5.51).
-- Harang is 0-3, 6.51 in his last five starts. Parra is 0-2, 16.62 in his last three road starts.
-- Correia is 1-2, 7.02 in his last three starts.

-- Penny is 0-1, 3.97 in his last four starts.
-- Detroit lost last three Verlander road starts (0-2, 7.05). Sabathia is 1-2, 5.59 in his last three outings.
-- Weaver has a 7.28 RA in his last five starts. Oakland lost Mazzaro's last six starts (0-5, 5.29). A's scored total of six runs in those starts.
-- Buehrle has a 6.38 RA in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 2-4, 6.69 in his last seven starts.
-- Ohka is 0-3, 7.40 in four starts this season.
-- Greinke is 2-4, 5.16 in his last eight starts. Kazmir is 1-4, 9.84 in his last eight starts.

Hot Teams.
-- Cubs won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won their last six home games.
-- Phillies won 11 of their last 12 games. Marlins won ten of their last thirteen home games, but lost last two.
-- Arizona won seven of its last ten games. Cardinals won nine of 13.
-- Rockies are 29-9 in their last 38 games, 15-4 in last 19 on road.
-- Astros won eight of their last ten games.

-- Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- Bronx Bombers won six of last eight home games.
-- Twins won six of their last eight road games. Rangers won five of their last six home games.
-- Orioles won four of their last six games. White Sox won seven of their last nine home games.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve games. A's won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games. Giants lost their last three road games, scoring total of four runs.
-- Reds lost seven of their last ten games. Brewers lost nine of last 13.
-- Mets lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Padres lost twelve of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers scored one run in losing their last two games.

-- Mariners are 15-23 in their last 38 road games. Indians lost six of last nine games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six home games.
-- Tigers lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
-- Royals lost ten of their last thirteen home games. Rays lost 14 of last 21 road games.


Totals
-- Under is 13-4-1 in Cubs' last eighteen road games.
-- Eight of last nine games at PNC Park stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Cincinnati home games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Last six games at Petco Park went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine games at Dodger Stadium stayed under the total.

-- Under is 19-6-2 in Seattle's last 27 road games.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Detroit road games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Royals' last eight home games.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games went over the total.
-- 13 of Oakland's last 17 home games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- NY-Atl-- Favorites won nine of last eleven Iassogna games.
-- SF-Pitt-- Under is 14-6-1 in Hoye's last 21 games behind plate.
-- Chi-Wsh-- Home team is 3-0 in Reyburn games (under 2-0-1).
-- Mil-Cin-- 10 of last 12 Runge games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-Fla-- Nine of last 12 Kellogg games stayed under the total.
-- Az-StL-- Both Tiller games this season stayed under the total.
-- Col-SD-- Seven of last nine Gibson games went over the total.
-- Hst-LA-- Favorites won eight of last ten Dimuro games.

-- Bos-Tor-- Favorites won five of last six Diaz games.
-- Det-NY-- Four of last five Davidson games stayed under the total.
-- Blt-Chi-- Eight of last twelve Reynolds games went over the total.
-- LA-A's-- Road team won seven of last eight Guccione games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Seven of last nine Demuth games stayed under the total.
-- TB-KC-- Underdog is 5-4 in Schrieber's last nine games behind dish.
-- Min-Tex-- Underdog won five of last six O'Nora games.

 

[cisco]

DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games when playing at home against Detroit
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Detroit

BOSTON vs. TORONTO
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boston

BALTIMORE vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

LA ANGELS vs. OAKLAND
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 10 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels

NY METS vs. ATLANTA
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
NY Mets are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games

CHI CUBS vs. WASHINGTON
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs

SAN FRANCISCO vs. PITTSBURGH
San Francisco is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

SEATTLE vs. CLEVELAND
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

MILWAUKEE vs. CINCINNATI
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

PHILADELPHIA vs. FLORIDA
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Texas
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Texas is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing Minnesota

COLORADO vs. SAN DIEGO
Colorado is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Diego's last 18 games when playing Colorado

HOUSTON vs. LA DODGERS
Houston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Houston
LA Dodgers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

 

[cisco]

Today?s best MLB bets

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians

Let us take a second to introduce you to the team with the best record in one-run games in the American League: Seattle.

The Mariners have been amazing in close games this season, going 21-13 in contests decided by the slimmest of margins. The reason? The team?s pitching has been consitent all season. Seattle?s 3.72 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors and opponents are hitting just .245 against them. And when the Mariners have a late lead, you can lock it up. The team is tied for the major-league lead with 28 saves.

Cleveland, however, is just 12-12 in one-run games and has the worst pitching staff in the majors. Its 5.35 ERA is by far the poorest mark in the bigs. The Indians may have a slight edge in offense, but have a huge disadvantage in pitching and it won?t be enough as this team starts to pack it in during the dog days of summer.

Pick: Mariners


San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-109, 9)

So what do you get when you combine one of the best road-pitching teams in the majors and one of the best home-pitching teams in the majors with two mediocre offenses? Very few runs.

The pitching matchup of the Giants' Barry Zito against the Pirates' Charlie Morton might scare off some bettors, but in this case the stats don?t lie.

The Giants over/under record on the road this season is 17-22-3 and the team has gone under the total in six of its past 10 away games. On the other hand, the Pirates over/under record at home is 14-24-1. The under also has hit in eight of the Bucs past 10 home games.

Zito and Morton should be just good enough to stifle the opposing lineup and keep this one below the total.

Pick: Under 9

 

[cisco]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Haren was even more dominant in his most recent start. If that?s possible.

The 28-year-old right-hander was nearly unhittable in his most recent outing, an 8-0 win against the Marlins in which he yielded just four hits, struck out 10 batters, walked one in the complete-game shutout. This season, Haren ranks in the Top 10 in the National League in wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, ERA, complete games and WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).

In nine starts since May 23, Haren (9-5, 2.01 ERA) has yielded no more than two earned runs in any outing and has lasted at least seven innings in all but one appearance.

"That sets off the fire alarms around here when he walks a guy," Arizona manager A.J. Hinch told the Associated Press.

Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)

The 25-year-old right-hander has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender. Johnson (8-2, 2.74 ERA) also ranks in the Top 10 in the NL in virtually every statistical category as he has been the most consistent pitcher on the Senior Circuit this year.

Johnson has allowed more than three earned runs only once in 19 starts this year and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 outings.

In his most recent start, Johnson allowed only one earned run on seven hits in 6 2-3 innings as he struck out seven in an 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks.


Slumping

Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Rays)

It?s been the unlucky sevens that Kazmir has had to worry about. After allowing seven runs in consecutive starts in May before a stint on the DL sidelined him for June, Kazmir appeared to slowly be regaining his form. He allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings in consecutive starts.

But then came the debacle on July 8 against Toronto. Kazmir was slammed for seven runs on nine hits in 6 1-3 innings as he gave up a pair of long balls.

If Kazmir can?t regain his form, the Rays have a huge hole in their rotation.

"It felt like I pitched way better than that," Kazmir, who hasn?t won since May 9, told the Associated Press. "It seems like I haven't gotten one break the whole year. I'm due."

Jason Hammel (Colorado Rockies)

Hammel?s 5-4 record and 4.43 ERA seem harmless enough. But he has been playing with fire and putting runners on base at an alarming rate.

In his past two starts, he?s allowed nine earned runs on 19 hits in just 8 2-3 innings. In his most recent outing against Atlanta, he last just three innings as he gave up five runs on nine hits.

Hammel?s 1.46 WHIP is the stat people should be looking at. The Rockies offense won?t be able to bail him out all season.