It was regarding women's lacrosse, but here's my take on the MLB showcase:
NL 55%(+134)+12
over10 63%(+109)+15
Very hard game to 'cap, with any system. Instead of myself usually using team hitting stats, I did a composite of the starting lineup, with reserves factored in to a lesser degree. The real edge that I've found (if real) is in this area. Take a composite of any statistical category and you will find the NL lineup with the greater numbers. For one example, the NL has three players with a personal OPS greater than 1.000 (Berkman,Pujols,Jones) and another three players quite close (H.Ramirez,Utley,Holliday). The AL has just, you guessed it, Milton Bradley over that mark at 1.050 with A-Rod close at almost .980; things drop-off significantly after that (e.g. Hamilton near .920). I also give a slight edge to NL reservesticks but this factors into my number by less than 2% of the edge.
Pitching is rated, by myself, to be quite even for this game. Personally, I prefer Sheets to Lee but rated them quite similarly. Slight edge to the AL reserves, here, but things are again close to even. Notably, the AL has 5 solid closers on their roster while the NL has 3--shouldn't matter much to the outcome as even 3 closers should get the job done if there's any NL lead; all these closers probably don't make an appearance unless we see extras. While the pitching is great for both sides, I think the sticks should prevail in this game and the total of 10 isn't too high for Yankee Stadium. I don't have the numbers in front of me but, if memory serves (rarely does), the All-Star game typically sees 10 runs or more the past decade or so.
Fairly decent home-field edge also given to the AL squad, but not enough to overcome the offensive disparity that I perceive here. I think Francona is the better manager but haven't factored that in.
The AL domination of the Home Run Derby may only serve to move the public's perception more towards an AL victory, along with the public's knowledge of the AL's domination in this contest the past while. Holding off until just before first pitch might be the way to go as AL money could make the NL line even better.
Enough rambling on about this once meaningless game. You'd think it was the playoffs, or something. I'm looking at NL, maybe including a 1st5 try, as well as the over. Over 5, 1st5, I can currently get at -135, which is very tempting. I can see at least 3 balls leaving the park in this game and, certainly, they won't all be with the bases empty.
Always loved baseball's All-Star game.
Been taping them about 20 years, now.
Best to just watch and enjoy--not like I'm usually terribly interested in 55% calls...'course, don't usually get +130 on them, either.
May post what's played.
You know where I sit.
All streaks must come to an end.
GL
NL 55%(+134)+12
over10 63%(+109)+15
Very hard game to 'cap, with any system. Instead of myself usually using team hitting stats, I did a composite of the starting lineup, with reserves factored in to a lesser degree. The real edge that I've found (if real) is in this area. Take a composite of any statistical category and you will find the NL lineup with the greater numbers. For one example, the NL has three players with a personal OPS greater than 1.000 (Berkman,Pujols,Jones) and another three players quite close (H.Ramirez,Utley,Holliday). The AL has just, you guessed it, Milton Bradley over that mark at 1.050 with A-Rod close at almost .980; things drop-off significantly after that (e.g. Hamilton near .920). I also give a slight edge to NL reservesticks but this factors into my number by less than 2% of the edge.
Pitching is rated, by myself, to be quite even for this game. Personally, I prefer Sheets to Lee but rated them quite similarly. Slight edge to the AL reserves, here, but things are again close to even. Notably, the AL has 5 solid closers on their roster while the NL has 3--shouldn't matter much to the outcome as even 3 closers should get the job done if there's any NL lead; all these closers probably don't make an appearance unless we see extras. While the pitching is great for both sides, I think the sticks should prevail in this game and the total of 10 isn't too high for Yankee Stadium. I don't have the numbers in front of me but, if memory serves (rarely does), the All-Star game typically sees 10 runs or more the past decade or so.
Fairly decent home-field edge also given to the AL squad, but not enough to overcome the offensive disparity that I perceive here. I think Francona is the better manager but haven't factored that in.
The AL domination of the Home Run Derby may only serve to move the public's perception more towards an AL victory, along with the public's knowledge of the AL's domination in this contest the past while. Holding off until just before first pitch might be the way to go as AL money could make the NL line even better.
Enough rambling on about this once meaningless game. You'd think it was the playoffs, or something. I'm looking at NL, maybe including a 1st5 try, as well as the over. Over 5, 1st5, I can currently get at -135, which is very tempting. I can see at least 3 balls leaving the park in this game and, certainly, they won't all be with the bases empty.
Always loved baseball's All-Star game.
Been taping them about 20 years, now.
Best to just watch and enjoy--not like I'm usually terribly interested in 55% calls...'course, don't usually get +130 on them, either.
May post what's played.
You know where I sit.
All streaks must come to an end.
GL
Last edited:
