10:10 PM MLB [910] TOTAL u7.5 -120 (MIA MARLINS vrs SDG PADRES) ( T KOEHLER -R / D POMERANZ -L )
10:15 PM MLB [912] SFO GIANTS -1.5 -110 ( M GARZA -R / M BUMGARNER -L )
08:10 PM MLB [917] DET TIGERS -115 ( J ZIMMERMANN -R / M GONZALEZ -R )
08:00 PM NBA [657] SEA STORM -4-110
1 unit bet pays 11.49 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-69, +3.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
FENWAY PAAAHHHK
very interesting article here:
Bad air days: Pacific conditions give hitters fits...The West Coast, with its Pacific Ocean breezes, beaches and breathtaking beauty, is a wonderful place to play baseball -- if you're a pitcher.
If you swing a bat for a living, its natural wonders can lose their allure in a heartbeat, starting with a soup-like marine layer invading cool ballparks in late spring and early autumn.
now look what The National Weather Service reports for San Diego CA, TUE JUN 14 2016:
Below average high temperatures and a moderately deep marine
layer will continue through Thursday, with areas of night and
morning low clouds and patchy fog extending into the far inland
valleys
"moderately deep", but for best betting angle, you'd like to see "heavily deep"..(to find this you google "san diego weather forecast discussion")....an upper level trough is mixing out the marine air today in the Bay area, while in LA "the marine layer is up to 2200 feet at LAX."....
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Eovaldi "is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies and 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA in three starts at Coors Field" (!).
Maeda has been unbelievable on the road this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and a .162 opponent batting average away from home
Garza suffered a right lat strain during an exhibition game in his final start of Spring Training. He made three rehab starts for Class A Wisconsin, throwing 74 pitches in his final start on Thursday, allowing three runs in five innings. Garza struggled in 2015, posting a 5.63 ERA and a 6.3 K/9 rate, his worst marks since '06 and '08, respectively.
Anyone facing the Phillies or Braves instantly becomes someone of interest..We've seen guys far less talented than Brandon Finnegan shut those teams down this year, but the 23-year old lefty could really get loose against Atlanta on Tuesday. They are dead last in wRC+ against lefties at just 58 this year with a 23 percent strikeout (10th-highest) and 6 percent walk rate (2nd-lowest). Finnegan has been inconsistent, but he's flashed some impressive highs with four games of 64 Game Score or higher, including his last start (7 IP/2 ER v. StL).
Miami +119 over SAN DIEGO
Tom Koehler is a groundball specialist that can get hitters to swing at a lot of bad pitches. His swinging strike rate has shown a steady increase this year by going from 8% in the first month to 10% in May to 12% over his last two starts. Koehler has a 53% groundball rate and that?s precisely the type of pitcher we like to get behind in a pitcher?s park. Half of his 12 starts have been of the dominant variety and now he and the Marlins will take back a price against a beatable opponent.
We are of the buy-low//sell high mentality and that applies to Drew Pomeranz. We were backing this guy when he was being offered big prices over his first eight starts but now the market has caught on as to how good he?s been, which makes us sellers. Pomeranz was a dog in his first eight starts of the year and he was a significant dog in most of them. He now brings his 2.44 ERA into this game with 83 K?s in 70 innings. Pomeranz was a high draft pick that never fulfilled his promise but has come out of nowhere this season to thrive. Thing is, major-league hitters make adjustments, especially when a previously ordinary pitcher starts to thrive. Pomeranz has been greatly aided by fortunate hit and strand rates of 27% and 85% respectively. When his hit and strand rates begin normalizing, it will chip away at his shiny surface stats. Furthermore, the Marlins are one of the best hitting teams in the majors against southpaws. Now that there is plenty of film out on the ?new? Drew Pomeranz, one can expect his actual ERA to start creeping more towards his xERA of 3.70. For the first time in his career, Pomeranz is way overvalued.
Houston @ ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are in contention every year. They are known as the ?model-franchise? because of their structural approach to building a consistent winner year in and year out. The Cardinals are right where they usually are with a 35-28 record and in second place in the NL Central behind the mighty Cubs. That said, we find it a little curious that St. Louis opened as a small -130 favorite at home against the 30-35 Astros with Doug Fister going. In terms of the market, Fister is absolutely recognized as the inferior pitcher here and Houston is recognized as the inferior team, which makes the small opening price on the Cardinals even more curious. We?re suggesting being very cautious about betting the favorite here.
Fister has 44 K?s in 73 innings. He?s a finesse righty with 86 MPH heat. We are not for a second going to try and convince anyone that Fister is coming on because he?s not. His swing and miss rate is low at 6% and his control is below average. Once again we have to question the small line here, as Jaime Garcia has been winning games for the Cardinals and is coming off a great season last year. We smell a rat.
While injuries have disrupted what was once a promising career path for Jaime Garcia, he was able to throw 130 innings in 2015?his highest since 2011?while putting up career bests in ERA and WHIP. He already thrown 70 innings this year and it appears as though a heavy dose of fatigue is setting in. When fatigue sets in the first thing to go is control. Garcia has walked 10 batters over his past 24 frames with a 52% first-pitch strike rate over that span. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 6%. It is now time to back off this talented lefty time bomb. Garcia is battling everything including himself. When things are not going his way, he slows way down. That?s a bad sign on the mound that Garcia can?t get away from. Garcia has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%, strand%, hr/f) and while his actual ERA is still in decent shape, his xERA of 5.18 suggests a sharp ERA correction is looming. Garcia is running on fumes.
N.Y. Yankees @ COLORADO
COLORADO +100 over N.Y. Yankees
Before losing the final two games of their weekend set with the Tigers, New York had reeled off five wins in a row while scoring 33 times over that span. That?s nice but four of those five victories occurred against the reeling Angels, who have the worst pitching staff in baseball. The Angels are so desperate for starting pitching that they gave David Huff a spot in the rotation. Every team that plays the Angels is putting up crooked numbers so New York?s four-game sweep over the Halos in the Bronx means jack. Everyone scores at Coors Field and maybe even this collection of aging vets will score a bunch too but we wouldn?t trust the Yankees to score more than the Rockies at Coors Field on our worst day.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse at the cold corner in New York. Mets fans are bummed out at the loss of Lucas Duda, but Yankees fans will raise their loss of a productive first baseman with this series of events: Mark Teixiera devolved into one of the worst hitters in the league and got injured, Dustin Ackley injured his shoulder and went down for the season, and Chris Parmelee suffered a tough hamstring injury as well. When you?re bummed about Chris Parmelee going down, things have already gotten dark. The next man up is Ike Davis?not former Yankee Nick Swisher, who?s toiling away ineffectively in Triple-A Scranton?who had been toiling away ineffectively in Triple-A Round Rock. Once a New York darling, Davis has had a fall from grace since those halcyon days of 2010. The current incarnation of the Arizona native has a minimal hit tool, little mobility on the field and base-paths, and simply not enough game power to make up for his deficiencies.The Yanks have not played here in five years. It?s not a favorable field to come in stone cold and expect to thrive. It?s a tricky venue and we could see a bunch of New York errors too.
Nathan Eovaldi is enjoying a nice campaign where he has seen significant skills growth (3.50 xERA, 8.3 K?s/9, 2.1 BB?s/9 65% first-pitch strike rate). This start however, comes with an incredible amount of risk, as he takes on a Rockies bunch that average 5.9 runs per game at home along with a .296 BA and MLB-best .882 OPS. This venue beats up every pitcher and takes names as it goes along. Eovaldi is showing signs of regressing too, as he?s been tagged for 24 hits and 11 runs over his last 16 innings. The knock on Eovaldi is that his fastball, despite being in the 95 MPH range, comes in flat. He added a splitter to his repertoire in August of last year, which has helped him tremendously but hitters are making adjustments to it and regression has kicked in. Not interested.
Jorge De La Rosa comes and goes. You see his name for a few starts and then you don?t. He?s a 35-year-old lefty that has been around for some time and it has been pretty much the same story year after year after year. De La Rosa is consistently the fill-in guy, the bullpen guy, the long relief guy or the emergency spot starter guy. Before your eyes glaze over, check out his trends in strikeouts and groundballs. He has 39 K?s in 32 innings this year. He had 134 K?s in 139 innings last year. De La Rosa has a nice groundball lean that was 71% in his last appearance when he went four, no-hit innings against the Pirates. Before you go, look at this three-year split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA.
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Under 8?
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Indians 2-1 in Monday's series opener to climb just two games back of the Tribe who remain top of the AL Central. I think we'll see another low-scoring contest between the division rivals on Tuesday.
Chris Young (2-6, 6.37) will take the ball for Kansas City. His season ERA is extremely high, and he was lit up for five runs in 4 2/3 innings at Cleveland earlier this season, but he's much stronger home at Kauffman. Young has posted a 2.75 ERA in five appearances (three starts) in Kansas City this year with 23 Ks over 19 2/3 innings of work and I expect a solid outing from the veteran tonight. It's also worth noting that Cleveland has been held to three runs or fewer in four of their past eight games.
The Tribe turn to Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.48 ERA) who unlike Young has done his best work on the road where he has a 2.91 ERA over five starts. Tomlin has held the Royals to five runs in 12 1/3 innings of work covering two meetings this season and he has allowed just three runs through his last two starts.
Under is 7-2-2 in Indians last 11 overall, under is 4-1 in Royals last five overall and under is 3-0-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings.
Houston vs. St. Louis
Pick: Houston
I like the spot here for the Houston Astros catching plus money against the Saint Louis Cardinals tonight. The main edge is the pitching matchup. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and they have now won his last 8 starts. Fister has a 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and he appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Saint Louis hands the ball to Jaime Garcia whose ERA and WHIP is way up over his last four starts. Garcia?s walks per 9 IP are up from last year. His average with balls in play is up from last year. His homerun per fly ball is up from last year....You get the point. Looking at Garcia?s last four starts, he has given up 35 hits in only 19 IP and has only 10 strikeouts in this time frame.While the Astros did get swept on Sunday, they are a perfect 3-0 this season after getting shut out.
Houston might also get a big boost back to their lineup with shortstop Carlos Correa who sounds hopeful to play. Jose Altuve is 6-for-13 career vs Garcia and Carlos Gomez is 10-for-31. While Gomez has been struggling, Altuve continues to hit hot batting .429 the last seven days and is hitting .382 vs lefties on the season.
10:15 PM MLB [912] SFO GIANTS -1.5 -110 ( M GARZA -R / M BUMGARNER -L )
08:10 PM MLB [917] DET TIGERS -115 ( J ZIMMERMANN -R / M GONZALEZ -R )
08:00 PM NBA [657] SEA STORM -4-110
1 unit bet pays 11.49 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-69, +3.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
FENWAY PAAAHHHK
very interesting article here:
Bad air days: Pacific conditions give hitters fits...The West Coast, with its Pacific Ocean breezes, beaches and breathtaking beauty, is a wonderful place to play baseball -- if you're a pitcher.
If you swing a bat for a living, its natural wonders can lose their allure in a heartbeat, starting with a soup-like marine layer invading cool ballparks in late spring and early autumn.
now look what The National Weather Service reports for San Diego CA, TUE JUN 14 2016:
Below average high temperatures and a moderately deep marine
layer will continue through Thursday, with areas of night and
morning low clouds and patchy fog extending into the far inland
valleys
"moderately deep", but for best betting angle, you'd like to see "heavily deep"..(to find this you google "san diego weather forecast discussion")....an upper level trough is mixing out the marine air today in the Bay area, while in LA "the marine layer is up to 2200 feet at LAX."....
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Eovaldi "is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies and 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA in three starts at Coors Field" (!).
Maeda has been unbelievable on the road this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and a .162 opponent batting average away from home
Garza suffered a right lat strain during an exhibition game in his final start of Spring Training. He made three rehab starts for Class A Wisconsin, throwing 74 pitches in his final start on Thursday, allowing three runs in five innings. Garza struggled in 2015, posting a 5.63 ERA and a 6.3 K/9 rate, his worst marks since '06 and '08, respectively.
Anyone facing the Phillies or Braves instantly becomes someone of interest..We've seen guys far less talented than Brandon Finnegan shut those teams down this year, but the 23-year old lefty could really get loose against Atlanta on Tuesday. They are dead last in wRC+ against lefties at just 58 this year with a 23 percent strikeout (10th-highest) and 6 percent walk rate (2nd-lowest). Finnegan has been inconsistent, but he's flashed some impressive highs with four games of 64 Game Score or higher, including his last start (7 IP/2 ER v. StL).
Miami +119 over SAN DIEGO
Tom Koehler is a groundball specialist that can get hitters to swing at a lot of bad pitches. His swinging strike rate has shown a steady increase this year by going from 8% in the first month to 10% in May to 12% over his last two starts. Koehler has a 53% groundball rate and that?s precisely the type of pitcher we like to get behind in a pitcher?s park. Half of his 12 starts have been of the dominant variety and now he and the Marlins will take back a price against a beatable opponent.
We are of the buy-low//sell high mentality and that applies to Drew Pomeranz. We were backing this guy when he was being offered big prices over his first eight starts but now the market has caught on as to how good he?s been, which makes us sellers. Pomeranz was a dog in his first eight starts of the year and he was a significant dog in most of them. He now brings his 2.44 ERA into this game with 83 K?s in 70 innings. Pomeranz was a high draft pick that never fulfilled his promise but has come out of nowhere this season to thrive. Thing is, major-league hitters make adjustments, especially when a previously ordinary pitcher starts to thrive. Pomeranz has been greatly aided by fortunate hit and strand rates of 27% and 85% respectively. When his hit and strand rates begin normalizing, it will chip away at his shiny surface stats. Furthermore, the Marlins are one of the best hitting teams in the majors against southpaws. Now that there is plenty of film out on the ?new? Drew Pomeranz, one can expect his actual ERA to start creeping more towards his xERA of 3.70. For the first time in his career, Pomeranz is way overvalued.
Houston @ ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are in contention every year. They are known as the ?model-franchise? because of their structural approach to building a consistent winner year in and year out. The Cardinals are right where they usually are with a 35-28 record and in second place in the NL Central behind the mighty Cubs. That said, we find it a little curious that St. Louis opened as a small -130 favorite at home against the 30-35 Astros with Doug Fister going. In terms of the market, Fister is absolutely recognized as the inferior pitcher here and Houston is recognized as the inferior team, which makes the small opening price on the Cardinals even more curious. We?re suggesting being very cautious about betting the favorite here.
Fister has 44 K?s in 73 innings. He?s a finesse righty with 86 MPH heat. We are not for a second going to try and convince anyone that Fister is coming on because he?s not. His swing and miss rate is low at 6% and his control is below average. Once again we have to question the small line here, as Jaime Garcia has been winning games for the Cardinals and is coming off a great season last year. We smell a rat.
While injuries have disrupted what was once a promising career path for Jaime Garcia, he was able to throw 130 innings in 2015?his highest since 2011?while putting up career bests in ERA and WHIP. He already thrown 70 innings this year and it appears as though a heavy dose of fatigue is setting in. When fatigue sets in the first thing to go is control. Garcia has walked 10 batters over his past 24 frames with a 52% first-pitch strike rate over that span. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 6%. It is now time to back off this talented lefty time bomb. Garcia is battling everything including himself. When things are not going his way, he slows way down. That?s a bad sign on the mound that Garcia can?t get away from. Garcia has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%, strand%, hr/f) and while his actual ERA is still in decent shape, his xERA of 5.18 suggests a sharp ERA correction is looming. Garcia is running on fumes.
N.Y. Yankees @ COLORADO
COLORADO +100 over N.Y. Yankees
Before losing the final two games of their weekend set with the Tigers, New York had reeled off five wins in a row while scoring 33 times over that span. That?s nice but four of those five victories occurred against the reeling Angels, who have the worst pitching staff in baseball. The Angels are so desperate for starting pitching that they gave David Huff a spot in the rotation. Every team that plays the Angels is putting up crooked numbers so New York?s four-game sweep over the Halos in the Bronx means jack. Everyone scores at Coors Field and maybe even this collection of aging vets will score a bunch too but we wouldn?t trust the Yankees to score more than the Rockies at Coors Field on our worst day.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse at the cold corner in New York. Mets fans are bummed out at the loss of Lucas Duda, but Yankees fans will raise their loss of a productive first baseman with this series of events: Mark Teixiera devolved into one of the worst hitters in the league and got injured, Dustin Ackley injured his shoulder and went down for the season, and Chris Parmelee suffered a tough hamstring injury as well. When you?re bummed about Chris Parmelee going down, things have already gotten dark. The next man up is Ike Davis?not former Yankee Nick Swisher, who?s toiling away ineffectively in Triple-A Scranton?who had been toiling away ineffectively in Triple-A Round Rock. Once a New York darling, Davis has had a fall from grace since those halcyon days of 2010. The current incarnation of the Arizona native has a minimal hit tool, little mobility on the field and base-paths, and simply not enough game power to make up for his deficiencies.The Yanks have not played here in five years. It?s not a favorable field to come in stone cold and expect to thrive. It?s a tricky venue and we could see a bunch of New York errors too.
Nathan Eovaldi is enjoying a nice campaign where he has seen significant skills growth (3.50 xERA, 8.3 K?s/9, 2.1 BB?s/9 65% first-pitch strike rate). This start however, comes with an incredible amount of risk, as he takes on a Rockies bunch that average 5.9 runs per game at home along with a .296 BA and MLB-best .882 OPS. This venue beats up every pitcher and takes names as it goes along. Eovaldi is showing signs of regressing too, as he?s been tagged for 24 hits and 11 runs over his last 16 innings. The knock on Eovaldi is that his fastball, despite being in the 95 MPH range, comes in flat. He added a splitter to his repertoire in August of last year, which has helped him tremendously but hitters are making adjustments to it and regression has kicked in. Not interested.
Jorge De La Rosa comes and goes. You see his name for a few starts and then you don?t. He?s a 35-year-old lefty that has been around for some time and it has been pretty much the same story year after year after year. De La Rosa is consistently the fill-in guy, the bullpen guy, the long relief guy or the emergency spot starter guy. Before your eyes glaze over, check out his trends in strikeouts and groundballs. He has 39 K?s in 32 innings this year. He had 134 K?s in 139 innings last year. De La Rosa has a nice groundball lean that was 71% in his last appearance when he went four, no-hit innings against the Pirates. Before you go, look at this three-year split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA.
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Under 8?
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Indians 2-1 in Monday's series opener to climb just two games back of the Tribe who remain top of the AL Central. I think we'll see another low-scoring contest between the division rivals on Tuesday.
Chris Young (2-6, 6.37) will take the ball for Kansas City. His season ERA is extremely high, and he was lit up for five runs in 4 2/3 innings at Cleveland earlier this season, but he's much stronger home at Kauffman. Young has posted a 2.75 ERA in five appearances (three starts) in Kansas City this year with 23 Ks over 19 2/3 innings of work and I expect a solid outing from the veteran tonight. It's also worth noting that Cleveland has been held to three runs or fewer in four of their past eight games.
The Tribe turn to Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.48 ERA) who unlike Young has done his best work on the road where he has a 2.91 ERA over five starts. Tomlin has held the Royals to five runs in 12 1/3 innings of work covering two meetings this season and he has allowed just three runs through his last two starts.
Under is 7-2-2 in Indians last 11 overall, under is 4-1 in Royals last five overall and under is 3-0-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings.
Houston vs. St. Louis
Pick: Houston
I like the spot here for the Houston Astros catching plus money against the Saint Louis Cardinals tonight. The main edge is the pitching matchup. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and they have now won his last 8 starts. Fister has a 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and he appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Saint Louis hands the ball to Jaime Garcia whose ERA and WHIP is way up over his last four starts. Garcia?s walks per 9 IP are up from last year. His average with balls in play is up from last year. His homerun per fly ball is up from last year....You get the point. Looking at Garcia?s last four starts, he has given up 35 hits in only 19 IP and has only 10 strikeouts in this time frame.While the Astros did get swept on Sunday, they are a perfect 3-0 this season after getting shut out.
Houston might also get a big boost back to their lineup with shortstop Carlos Correa who sounds hopeful to play. Jose Altuve is 6-for-13 career vs Garcia and Carlos Gomez is 10-for-31. While Gomez has been struggling, Altuve continues to hit hot batting .429 the last seven days and is hitting .382 vs lefties on the season.
