07:10 PM MLB [957] TOTAL o9-125 (ATL BRAVES vrs CIN REDS) ( T JENKINS -R / C REED -L )
10:05 PM MLB [971] TOTAL o10-110 (TEX RANGERS vrs LA ANGELS) ( K LOHSE -R / T LINCECUM -R )
08:40 PM MLB [978] COL ROCKIES -1.5 +125 ( B SNELL -L / T CHATWOOD -R )
09:40 PM MLB [979] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 -125 ( A SANCHEZ -R / Z GODLEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 12.92 ....betdsi line
07:05 PM MLB [953] MIL BREWERS +131 ( J GUERRA -R / J TAILLON -R )
07:05 PM MLB [956] TOTAL u9-120 (LA DODGERS vrs WAS NATIONALS) ( S KAZMIR -L / R LOPEZ -R )
07:05 PM MLB [959] NY METS +125 ( N SYNDERGAARD -R / J ARRIETA -R )
08:15 PM MLB [962] STL CARDINALS -1.5 -110 ( C REA -R / C MARTINEZ -R )
07:10 PM MLB [1957] 1H ATL BRAVES +140 ( T JENKINS -R / C REED -L )
1 unit bet pays 42 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-107, -29.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Reynaldo Lopez, the Nats' No.5 prospect, will make his Major League debut. In 16 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Lopez has combined for 109 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings with a 3.19 ERA. He can reach 100 mph with his fastball.
SCOUTING REPORT
Lopez was an unheralded 18-year-old with a high-80s fastball when the Nationals signed him for $17,000 in 2012. His velocity quickly began to increase, but his progress was slowed when a sore arm that was diagnosed as bone weakness kept him out nearly all of 2013. He?s gotten stronger and made significant improvements since then.
He broke out in 2014, took a step back in 2015 and this season has been his most consistent to date. The biggest factor for Lopez? steadiness in 2016 has been his delivery and mechanics. Both have been consistent, and he also?s showed mental maturity by handling adversity and failure better than he has in the past.
As far as his stuff, the fastball velocity is consistently plus, and he pitches off that with two secondary pitches that are above average. The changeup has improved to an above-average offering and he manipulates the curveball and throws it for strikes.
Is he perfect yet? By no means. He still shows inconsistencies. In a June 14th start, he was only able to last 4.2 innings, because he was a bit out of the zone, landing 60-percent of his pitches for strikes. Still, in his ?poorest? outing of June, he struck out seven, walked two and limited the damage to one run.
---
The Dodgers have scored 19 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in 10 of their last 14 games.
tho Dodgers are something like 29-5 now to the Under after an Over this season- 6-0 last 6 this trend has paid out (but 6-2 last 8, tho 14-2 last 16)
Nationals have won 15 of their last 20 games played at home.
Scott Kazmir..been known to suffer through some severe clunkers, but after a rocky start to the season (5.23 ERA in 51.7 IP) he has a solid 3.72 ERA in his last 44 IP with 59 strikeouts. He's only 4-0 in the nine starts because he doesn't go deep into games (just 5.3 IP/start)
Philadelphia is 5-1 in their last six during game two of a series, and 4-1 in Velasquez?s last five home starts-who has a 1.54 ERA in seven starts at home this year.
Milk has won 7 of Junior Guerra's last 10 Starts, and all 6 of his road starts, and won in his next start (2 of them) after they lost with him starting.
Taillon (on DL to rest arm and shoulder) threw an extended bullpen session Thursday and a side session Saturday.
?Did sequencing, had people standing in, high intensity, and it was really good,? Taillon said. ?I was pleased with how that went, even more pleased with how I woke up and felt [Friday] and how catch went [Friday].?
Under is 8-3-1 in MIL last 12 road games.
Over is 25-9 in PIT last 34 home games.
PIT are 10-4 in their last 14 overall.
Over is 9-1 in the last 10 Mil/Pit meetings.
You may not have fully noticed Junior Guerra this year, but he's been really good for the Brewers. He jumped on the map in May with 36 strikeouts in 36.3 innings. He tested the resolve of those who bought in by fanning just nine total batters in his first three starts of June, but has once again shown his strikeout prowess with 27 in his last 28 innings (not to mention a sparkling 1.61 ERA, too). This isn't just an out-of-nowhere fluke. Guerra can touch the mid-90s with regularity and his splitter has been one of baseball's best all year. Don't get hung up on him being a 31-year-old rookie and focus more on the fact he's pitching really well with the stuff to back it up.
Mets under 9-1 last 10.
It's no surprise that Noah Syndergaard carries the top projected Game Score for the day, but that's because the projection system doesn't know that his elbow is barking with some bone spurs that have likely influenced his 5.23 ERA in the last four starts. I will say that I'm much more comfortable with him in DFS over season-long right now because of the uncertainty with that elbow. We don't know how much the elbow is hampering him or when it flares up. If we assume it played a role in the 3 IP/5 ER and 4.7 IP/3 ER duds over his last three starts, then we have to acknowledge the Thor-esque 7 IP/1 ER gem in the middle against the very same Cubs he has on Tuesday.
Over is 6-1 in Atlanta?s last 7 games against a left handed starter....under is 11-3 in Atlanta?s last 14 road games
The Cincinnati Reds are 0-5 in Reed?s last 5 starts....over is 5-0 in Reed?s last 5 starts.
Rangers / Angels Over 9.5
Does this game look to good to be true?...My gut feeling says this game looks to easy....We know the drill when that happens...It usually doesn't pan out that well...Well, I'm going against my gut feeling here and using the numbers....We see Lohse for Texas gets the start...His ERA is 10.28, but we can use much of it since he only had 1 start...I still feel he isn't starting pitcher material and facing the red hot Angels might be a tall task...If the Angels had been hitting like most of the year, i would lean under or stay away...Angels have been hitting very well and facing Lohse IMO doesn't seem like much of a tall order tonight...Lincecum gets the nod for the Angels on the hill....He hasn't been anything special, but he has surprised in a few games...I just feel facing Texas is a different animal here...Texas coming off a big loss should be ready to rebound...I'm not sure they will rebound with Lohse on the mound, so the bats will have to get the job done tonight...Lincecum has had some of the bad games and this very well could be one of them....Texas bats can erupt at any time and put up some crooked numbers on any pitcher..I feel we see some good pitching from time to time, but overall these teams are hot enough to have that big breakout inning each...Bullpens probably get this one over in the later innings...I'll go against myself here tonight with my gut feeling and make a small wager with the numbers, pitchers and how both team are hitting and can hit the baseball..Over we go.
Atlanta at Cincinnati
Pick: Atlanta
It's surprising that Cody Reed is still in the major leagues let alone a relatively big favorite for Cincinnati even against the last-place Braves. The Reds have lost all five of his starts by a combined score of 44-17 and Reed's record is 0-4 with an 8.39 ERA. The left-hander has been pummeled to the tune of 28 runs (23 earned) and 36 hits in only 24 2/3 innings and opponents have a .330 batting average against him. Tyrell Jenkins made his first start on July 6 at Philadelphia and gave up one run and four hits in 4 2/3 innings. Jenkins was Atlanta's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015 and he had a 2.97 ERA as a starting pitcher in Triple A this season. Atlanta got off to a horrible start this year, but the Reds have lost only three fewer games than the Braves. Atlanta is a live underdog in this matchup.
WASHINGTON +103 over Los Angeles
Scott Kazmir has been relatively high on our fade list and now he?s favoured on the road in Washington. That?s our cue to jump in. Kazmir has 106 K?s in 98 innings but with a 10% swing and miss rate, you can expect his K-rate to decrease significantly in the second half. Furthermore, Kazmir has been awful the second and third time through lineups with xERA?s of 4.49 the second time through and 6.01 the third time through. Kazmir has a pedestrian 41%/22%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile not to mention a below average WHIP of 1.32. His 7-3 record in 18 starts is one of the more misleading W/L records in the game. In 18 starts this year, only seven of those have been of the pure quality variety. That he?s favored in Washington is incorrect.
Reynaldo Lopez will make his MLB debut here and that almost always brings risk but it can also play off handsomely because the market is usually not familiar with first-time starters. Lopez was given a paltry $17,000 to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2012 and after entering the Washington organization, he was far from a household name, starting his pro career off with two pedestrian minor-league seasons. Than 2014 happened. He came out popping near-triple digits on the radar gun, posted a 1.08 ERA in stops at Auburn and Hagerstown, and quickly established himself as one of the most intriguing right-handed arms in the lower level. He was solid?if not spectacular in 2015?but the big step forward was this season. He struck out 100 hitters in just over 76 innings with a 3.18 ERA, and after two solid starts in the International League, the Nationals felt confident enough to give him a shot against big-league hitters. You can watch his delivery in this video from two different angles:
Built with a shorter frame?though one that's otherwise plenty durable and athletic?Lopez gets to his velocity by way of some effort in his delivery. His arm-speed is about as good as it gets, but there's recoil and noise through his high three-quarters slot. This caused his control and command waver earlier in his career, though he's made real improvements with throwing strikes?even within the last two months. Many Eastern League evaluators saw a reliever as recently as April and May, but his surge in pitchability led to a dominant stretch that has scouts as primed as ever to believe in Lopez's ability to start.
When he's able to get ahead in counts and stay around the zone with his pitches, there's no doubt he has the raw stuff to be a quality rotation piece. He holds a late-bursting fastball sitting at 94-96 mph throughout starts. He?ll hit 98 on the gun in several pitches throughout a game also. His power curveball is in the 80-84 range. He'll lose control of the curve, specifically when he pulls off his release point, though his improvements in throwing his breaker for strikes were a big part of his dominant June performance (1.56 ERA; 12.5 K/9). Lopez's third pitch is a split-like change in the upper-80s, showing the power arm-side action of an above-average pitch when he's able to sell it at arm-speed.
This should be fun. Reynaldo Lopez has electric stuff and he?ll be making his major league debut in a starting role. His minor league rate stats from this year don?t exactly jump off the page (a 3.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 87.3 innings across 14 starts in Double-A and two starts in Triple-A), but those numbers don?t tell the whole story. Lopez struck out 109 batters in those 87.3 innings, good for 11.2 K?s/9. He?s pretty much a must play in an evenly priced game at home regardless of outcome. His stock is low so you folks in keeper fantasy leagues should scoop him up immediately. We?ll simply buy him today at a low cost for this one start.
Milwaukee +136 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates have scored three runs over their past three games and one of those games lasted 18 innings so let?s make that three runs over their past 36 innings. Over their past 20 games, Pittsburgh is hitting .240, which ranks 28th in MLB over that span, ahead of only Atlanta and Cincinnati. That does not bode well for this favorite against Junior Guerra.
Guerra has nine pure quality starts in 13 attempts this season. That's an elite percentage. His above-average swing and miss rate of 12% shows he's been able to generate whiffs against MLB hitters so we can expect the decent K-rate to continue. Guerra's luck indicators haven't had a major impact either way?xERA and skills are roughly in line with his surface ERA. Overall, Guerra has a 3.06 ERA. He has 27 K?s over his last 28 innings and at the ripe old age of 31, he?s a serious contender for NL Rookie of the Year. Dude arrived late but his skills are legit.
Jameson Taillon comes off the DH (shoulder) to make this start. He is extremely unlikely to go more than five innings providing everything is working, as the Pirates look to limit his workload down the stretch. Taillon missed the last two seasons with elbow and hernia surgeries. In three starts prior to going on the DH, Taillon posted a 5.79 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. If he thrives here, good from him but the more likely scenario is that he will be watched closely and won?t be asked to go more than four or five innings. He?s also likely to give up something because he?s raw and not seasoned enough to dominate when health issues are present.
N.Y. Mets +130 over CHICAGO
Jake Arrieta is viewed as a surefire ace. He has a 1.56 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last 12 months, which are comparable to the stats posted by Clayton Kershaw during the same period (1.50 ERA, 0.73 WHIP). Arrieta is also 4-2 with a 1.65 ERA at home this year. Problem is, few starters have been as fortunate as Arrieta has been at Wrigley with his 24% hit rate, 83% strand rate, and 6% hr/f. His control also is at risk of worsening, given his 58% first-pitch strike rate, 36% ball % and a history of control issues when he was younger. Arrieta is certainly a quality pitcher that has an elite strikeout rate but hitters are catching up and laying off a lot of his pitches outside the zone now. He?s walked 15 over his last 31 innings and is in no way superior to Noah Syndergaard.
Elite control and an elite repertoire combined with his poise and youth make Noah Syndergaard one of the top three pitchers on the planet. Syndergaard has a BB/K split of 18/128 in 106 innings. Nothing more needs to be said about him because he really is that good. He?s priced like he?s Bartolo Colon here because he left his start against the Nationals on Friday, July 8, because of arm fatigue. The club added that his injury was 'not elbow-related,' even though he has bone chips in his elbow. Syndergaard was throwing between 91 and 95 mph during his final inning of work.
While the Mets and Noah Syndergaard are blaming a tired arm for Syndergaard's loss of velocity in his Friday, July 8, start, one has to wonder if there's a reason for the arm fatigue. He did not pitch in the All-Star Game and there was speculation that he might miss a start or two or three but here he is, ready to go out there and face the Cubs. We?re damn sure the Mets (or Syndergaard himself) would not put his long term value in jeopardy for one start. Therefore, Syndergaard would not be run out there if he was not feeling 100% ready to go. The fact that he is starting is all the info we need to back him here.
Cardinals -1? +107
Padres starting hurler Rea has struggled on the road this season, as is evident by a bloated 5.52 ERA. The righty thrower has pitched against the Cardinals two times in his career and has been smashed around for eight runs in nine innings.Im beting he gets pounded again today. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Cards Martinez struck out 11 batters in his last start before the All-Star break, against the Brewers. He has allowed just six total runs over his last six starts along with a stingy 1.34 ERA during that period. He is in top form and will be hard to get to today, vs a very inconsistent Padre offense.
Cardinals -1? +107
Padres starting hurler Rea has struggled on the road this season, as is evident by a bloated 5.52 ERA. The righty thrower has pitched against the Cardinals two times in his career and has been smashed around for eight runs in nine innings.Im beting he gets pounded again today. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Cards Martinez struck out 11 batters in his last start before the All-Star break, against the Brewers. He has allowed just six total runs over his last six starts along with a stingy 1.34 ERA during that period. He is in top form and will be hard to get to today, vs a very inconsistent Padre offense.
10:05 PM MLB [971] TOTAL o10-110 (TEX RANGERS vrs LA ANGELS) ( K LOHSE -R / T LINCECUM -R )
08:40 PM MLB [978] COL ROCKIES -1.5 +125 ( B SNELL -L / T CHATWOOD -R )
09:40 PM MLB [979] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 -125 ( A SANCHEZ -R / Z GODLEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 12.92 ....betdsi line
07:05 PM MLB [953] MIL BREWERS +131 ( J GUERRA -R / J TAILLON -R )
07:05 PM MLB [956] TOTAL u9-120 (LA DODGERS vrs WAS NATIONALS) ( S KAZMIR -L / R LOPEZ -R )
07:05 PM MLB [959] NY METS +125 ( N SYNDERGAARD -R / J ARRIETA -R )
08:15 PM MLB [962] STL CARDINALS -1.5 -110 ( C REA -R / C MARTINEZ -R )
07:10 PM MLB [1957] 1H ATL BRAVES +140 ( T JENKINS -R / C REED -L )
1 unit bet pays 42 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-107, -29.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Reynaldo Lopez, the Nats' No.5 prospect, will make his Major League debut. In 16 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Lopez has combined for 109 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings with a 3.19 ERA. He can reach 100 mph with his fastball.
SCOUTING REPORT
Lopez was an unheralded 18-year-old with a high-80s fastball when the Nationals signed him for $17,000 in 2012. His velocity quickly began to increase, but his progress was slowed when a sore arm that was diagnosed as bone weakness kept him out nearly all of 2013. He?s gotten stronger and made significant improvements since then.
He broke out in 2014, took a step back in 2015 and this season has been his most consistent to date. The biggest factor for Lopez? steadiness in 2016 has been his delivery and mechanics. Both have been consistent, and he also?s showed mental maturity by handling adversity and failure better than he has in the past.
As far as his stuff, the fastball velocity is consistently plus, and he pitches off that with two secondary pitches that are above average. The changeup has improved to an above-average offering and he manipulates the curveball and throws it for strikes.
Is he perfect yet? By no means. He still shows inconsistencies. In a June 14th start, he was only able to last 4.2 innings, because he was a bit out of the zone, landing 60-percent of his pitches for strikes. Still, in his ?poorest? outing of June, he struck out seven, walked two and limited the damage to one run.
---
The Dodgers have scored 19 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in 10 of their last 14 games.
tho Dodgers are something like 29-5 now to the Under after an Over this season- 6-0 last 6 this trend has paid out (but 6-2 last 8, tho 14-2 last 16)
Nationals have won 15 of their last 20 games played at home.
Scott Kazmir..been known to suffer through some severe clunkers, but after a rocky start to the season (5.23 ERA in 51.7 IP) he has a solid 3.72 ERA in his last 44 IP with 59 strikeouts. He's only 4-0 in the nine starts because he doesn't go deep into games (just 5.3 IP/start)
Philadelphia is 5-1 in their last six during game two of a series, and 4-1 in Velasquez?s last five home starts-who has a 1.54 ERA in seven starts at home this year.
Milk has won 7 of Junior Guerra's last 10 Starts, and all 6 of his road starts, and won in his next start (2 of them) after they lost with him starting.
Taillon (on DL to rest arm and shoulder) threw an extended bullpen session Thursday and a side session Saturday.
?Did sequencing, had people standing in, high intensity, and it was really good,? Taillon said. ?I was pleased with how that went, even more pleased with how I woke up and felt [Friday] and how catch went [Friday].?
Under is 8-3-1 in MIL last 12 road games.
Over is 25-9 in PIT last 34 home games.
PIT are 10-4 in their last 14 overall.
Over is 9-1 in the last 10 Mil/Pit meetings.
You may not have fully noticed Junior Guerra this year, but he's been really good for the Brewers. He jumped on the map in May with 36 strikeouts in 36.3 innings. He tested the resolve of those who bought in by fanning just nine total batters in his first three starts of June, but has once again shown his strikeout prowess with 27 in his last 28 innings (not to mention a sparkling 1.61 ERA, too). This isn't just an out-of-nowhere fluke. Guerra can touch the mid-90s with regularity and his splitter has been one of baseball's best all year. Don't get hung up on him being a 31-year-old rookie and focus more on the fact he's pitching really well with the stuff to back it up.
Mets under 9-1 last 10.
It's no surprise that Noah Syndergaard carries the top projected Game Score for the day, but that's because the projection system doesn't know that his elbow is barking with some bone spurs that have likely influenced his 5.23 ERA in the last four starts. I will say that I'm much more comfortable with him in DFS over season-long right now because of the uncertainty with that elbow. We don't know how much the elbow is hampering him or when it flares up. If we assume it played a role in the 3 IP/5 ER and 4.7 IP/3 ER duds over his last three starts, then we have to acknowledge the Thor-esque 7 IP/1 ER gem in the middle against the very same Cubs he has on Tuesday.
Over is 6-1 in Atlanta?s last 7 games against a left handed starter....under is 11-3 in Atlanta?s last 14 road games
The Cincinnati Reds are 0-5 in Reed?s last 5 starts....over is 5-0 in Reed?s last 5 starts.
Rangers / Angels Over 9.5
Does this game look to good to be true?...My gut feeling says this game looks to easy....We know the drill when that happens...It usually doesn't pan out that well...Well, I'm going against my gut feeling here and using the numbers....We see Lohse for Texas gets the start...His ERA is 10.28, but we can use much of it since he only had 1 start...I still feel he isn't starting pitcher material and facing the red hot Angels might be a tall task...If the Angels had been hitting like most of the year, i would lean under or stay away...Angels have been hitting very well and facing Lohse IMO doesn't seem like much of a tall order tonight...Lincecum gets the nod for the Angels on the hill....He hasn't been anything special, but he has surprised in a few games...I just feel facing Texas is a different animal here...Texas coming off a big loss should be ready to rebound...I'm not sure they will rebound with Lohse on the mound, so the bats will have to get the job done tonight...Lincecum has had some of the bad games and this very well could be one of them....Texas bats can erupt at any time and put up some crooked numbers on any pitcher..I feel we see some good pitching from time to time, but overall these teams are hot enough to have that big breakout inning each...Bullpens probably get this one over in the later innings...I'll go against myself here tonight with my gut feeling and make a small wager with the numbers, pitchers and how both team are hitting and can hit the baseball..Over we go.
Atlanta at Cincinnati
Pick: Atlanta
It's surprising that Cody Reed is still in the major leagues let alone a relatively big favorite for Cincinnati even against the last-place Braves. The Reds have lost all five of his starts by a combined score of 44-17 and Reed's record is 0-4 with an 8.39 ERA. The left-hander has been pummeled to the tune of 28 runs (23 earned) and 36 hits in only 24 2/3 innings and opponents have a .330 batting average against him. Tyrell Jenkins made his first start on July 6 at Philadelphia and gave up one run and four hits in 4 2/3 innings. Jenkins was Atlanta's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015 and he had a 2.97 ERA as a starting pitcher in Triple A this season. Atlanta got off to a horrible start this year, but the Reds have lost only three fewer games than the Braves. Atlanta is a live underdog in this matchup.
WASHINGTON +103 over Los Angeles
Scott Kazmir has been relatively high on our fade list and now he?s favoured on the road in Washington. That?s our cue to jump in. Kazmir has 106 K?s in 98 innings but with a 10% swing and miss rate, you can expect his K-rate to decrease significantly in the second half. Furthermore, Kazmir has been awful the second and third time through lineups with xERA?s of 4.49 the second time through and 6.01 the third time through. Kazmir has a pedestrian 41%/22%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile not to mention a below average WHIP of 1.32. His 7-3 record in 18 starts is one of the more misleading W/L records in the game. In 18 starts this year, only seven of those have been of the pure quality variety. That he?s favored in Washington is incorrect.
Reynaldo Lopez will make his MLB debut here and that almost always brings risk but it can also play off handsomely because the market is usually not familiar with first-time starters. Lopez was given a paltry $17,000 to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2012 and after entering the Washington organization, he was far from a household name, starting his pro career off with two pedestrian minor-league seasons. Than 2014 happened. He came out popping near-triple digits on the radar gun, posted a 1.08 ERA in stops at Auburn and Hagerstown, and quickly established himself as one of the most intriguing right-handed arms in the lower level. He was solid?if not spectacular in 2015?but the big step forward was this season. He struck out 100 hitters in just over 76 innings with a 3.18 ERA, and after two solid starts in the International League, the Nationals felt confident enough to give him a shot against big-league hitters. You can watch his delivery in this video from two different angles:
Built with a shorter frame?though one that's otherwise plenty durable and athletic?Lopez gets to his velocity by way of some effort in his delivery. His arm-speed is about as good as it gets, but there's recoil and noise through his high three-quarters slot. This caused his control and command waver earlier in his career, though he's made real improvements with throwing strikes?even within the last two months. Many Eastern League evaluators saw a reliever as recently as April and May, but his surge in pitchability led to a dominant stretch that has scouts as primed as ever to believe in Lopez's ability to start.
When he's able to get ahead in counts and stay around the zone with his pitches, there's no doubt he has the raw stuff to be a quality rotation piece. He holds a late-bursting fastball sitting at 94-96 mph throughout starts. He?ll hit 98 on the gun in several pitches throughout a game also. His power curveball is in the 80-84 range. He'll lose control of the curve, specifically when he pulls off his release point, though his improvements in throwing his breaker for strikes were a big part of his dominant June performance (1.56 ERA; 12.5 K/9). Lopez's third pitch is a split-like change in the upper-80s, showing the power arm-side action of an above-average pitch when he's able to sell it at arm-speed.
This should be fun. Reynaldo Lopez has electric stuff and he?ll be making his major league debut in a starting role. His minor league rate stats from this year don?t exactly jump off the page (a 3.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 87.3 innings across 14 starts in Double-A and two starts in Triple-A), but those numbers don?t tell the whole story. Lopez struck out 109 batters in those 87.3 innings, good for 11.2 K?s/9. He?s pretty much a must play in an evenly priced game at home regardless of outcome. His stock is low so you folks in keeper fantasy leagues should scoop him up immediately. We?ll simply buy him today at a low cost for this one start.
Milwaukee +136 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates have scored three runs over their past three games and one of those games lasted 18 innings so let?s make that three runs over their past 36 innings. Over their past 20 games, Pittsburgh is hitting .240, which ranks 28th in MLB over that span, ahead of only Atlanta and Cincinnati. That does not bode well for this favorite against Junior Guerra.
Guerra has nine pure quality starts in 13 attempts this season. That's an elite percentage. His above-average swing and miss rate of 12% shows he's been able to generate whiffs against MLB hitters so we can expect the decent K-rate to continue. Guerra's luck indicators haven't had a major impact either way?xERA and skills are roughly in line with his surface ERA. Overall, Guerra has a 3.06 ERA. He has 27 K?s over his last 28 innings and at the ripe old age of 31, he?s a serious contender for NL Rookie of the Year. Dude arrived late but his skills are legit.
Jameson Taillon comes off the DH (shoulder) to make this start. He is extremely unlikely to go more than five innings providing everything is working, as the Pirates look to limit his workload down the stretch. Taillon missed the last two seasons with elbow and hernia surgeries. In three starts prior to going on the DH, Taillon posted a 5.79 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. If he thrives here, good from him but the more likely scenario is that he will be watched closely and won?t be asked to go more than four or five innings. He?s also likely to give up something because he?s raw and not seasoned enough to dominate when health issues are present.
N.Y. Mets +130 over CHICAGO
Jake Arrieta is viewed as a surefire ace. He has a 1.56 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the last 12 months, which are comparable to the stats posted by Clayton Kershaw during the same period (1.50 ERA, 0.73 WHIP). Arrieta is also 4-2 with a 1.65 ERA at home this year. Problem is, few starters have been as fortunate as Arrieta has been at Wrigley with his 24% hit rate, 83% strand rate, and 6% hr/f. His control also is at risk of worsening, given his 58% first-pitch strike rate, 36% ball % and a history of control issues when he was younger. Arrieta is certainly a quality pitcher that has an elite strikeout rate but hitters are catching up and laying off a lot of his pitches outside the zone now. He?s walked 15 over his last 31 innings and is in no way superior to Noah Syndergaard.
Elite control and an elite repertoire combined with his poise and youth make Noah Syndergaard one of the top three pitchers on the planet. Syndergaard has a BB/K split of 18/128 in 106 innings. Nothing more needs to be said about him because he really is that good. He?s priced like he?s Bartolo Colon here because he left his start against the Nationals on Friday, July 8, because of arm fatigue. The club added that his injury was 'not elbow-related,' even though he has bone chips in his elbow. Syndergaard was throwing between 91 and 95 mph during his final inning of work.
While the Mets and Noah Syndergaard are blaming a tired arm for Syndergaard's loss of velocity in his Friday, July 8, start, one has to wonder if there's a reason for the arm fatigue. He did not pitch in the All-Star Game and there was speculation that he might miss a start or two or three but here he is, ready to go out there and face the Cubs. We?re damn sure the Mets (or Syndergaard himself) would not put his long term value in jeopardy for one start. Therefore, Syndergaard would not be run out there if he was not feeling 100% ready to go. The fact that he is starting is all the info we need to back him here.
Cardinals -1? +107
Padres starting hurler Rea has struggled on the road this season, as is evident by a bloated 5.52 ERA. The righty thrower has pitched against the Cardinals two times in his career and has been smashed around for eight runs in nine innings.Im beting he gets pounded again today. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Cards Martinez struck out 11 batters in his last start before the All-Star break, against the Brewers. He has allowed just six total runs over his last six starts along with a stingy 1.34 ERA during that period. He is in top form and will be hard to get to today, vs a very inconsistent Padre offense.
Cardinals -1? +107
Padres starting hurler Rea has struggled on the road this season, as is evident by a bloated 5.52 ERA. The righty thrower has pitched against the Cardinals two times in his career and has been smashed around for eight runs in nine innings.Im beting he gets pounded again today. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Cards Martinez struck out 11 batters in his last start before the All-Star break, against the Brewers. He has allowed just six total runs over his last six starts along with a stingy 1.34 ERA during that period. He is in top form and will be hard to get to today, vs a very inconsistent Padre offense.
