07:10 PM [910] BOS RED SOX -1.5 -115 ( M PELFREY -R / S WRIGHT -R )
07:05 PM [920] TOTAL u9.5 -125 (COL ROCKIES vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( C BETTIS -R / C TILLMAN -R )
07:10 PM [924] CLE INDIANS -150 ( G GONZALEZ -L / D SALAZAR -R )
08:10 PM [926] TOTAL u9.5 -110 (ATL BRAVES vrs MIN TWINS) ( L HARRELL -R / E SANTANA -R )
10:10 PM [930] LA DODGERS -131 ( C ARCHER -R / B NORRIS -R )
1 unit bet pays 17.89 ....betdsi line
07:10 PM PHI PHILLIES +121 ( J EICKHOFF -R / T KOEHLER -R )
10:15 PM TOTAL o8.5 -110 (CIN REDS vrs SFO GIANTS) ( C REED -L / M CAIN -R )
08:10 PM HOU ASTROS -145 ( C SABATHIA -L / D FISTER -R )
08:15 PM LA ANGELS -122 ( T SKAGGS -L / D GEE -R )
07:05 PM SDG PADRES +220 ( A CASHNER -R / M STROMAN -R )
07:10 PM TOTAL u9-110 (CHI CUBS vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( K HENDRICKS -R / J SHIELDS -R )
1 unit bet pays 78 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-114, -18.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Chris Tillman - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Jesus Tillman. I don't like talking about Wins since they are such a random stat outside of the super good/super bad and is based more on your team than your ability, but I used to have a saying that went you can't spell Win with Tillman. Well, I think Tilly here heard me and has gone 14-2 so far this year. Not because he's incredible - he's holding a 4.08 FIP and 4.44 xFIP with a 3.39 BB/9 - but because the Orioles like to get 2 ER in three games before turning on the jets for Tilly Mcgill over here. It's annoying because I really liked saying that dumb little phrase (it just rolls off the tongue like my cellar whore) (second parenthesis because that joke will most likely not be appreciated but my peak delirium self wants it to get the spotlight it deserves so here we are) and I guess I need to retire if for the time being. Stupid Tillman getting more than he deserves.
Chris Tillman has regularly been one of those guys who outruns his component numbers for a better ERA. He has consistently held a FIP between 4.01 and 4.42 since 2012, yet he has a 3.72 ERA in 800 innings over that time. He usually has solid-but-unspectacular strikeout and walk numbers, and 2016 is no different, with a 7.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9, but he's really difficult to square up, which is why he has held a .268 BABIP since 2012, including a .262 this year, which is tied for 16th-best with that Clayton Kershaw dude. The Rockies offense has just a .708 OPS against righties on the road, which is 21st in the league.
Bettis' ERA is quite unsightly at 5.55, but he's pitched a lot better than it appears. His FIP of 4.19 shows he's been quite unlucky so far this year thanks in part to a .344 BABIP. Given he calls Coors Field home, it's difficult to believe the 27-year-old can pitch up to what his peripherals suggest.
Colorado Rockies + over Baltimore Orioles
Chad Bettis is pitching pretty well for the Rockies with eight wins and while every Rockies starter is going to have a few blowup games at home his 4.11 FIP is well below his 5.31 ERA. A .335 BABIP has been unfortunate along with nearly 35 percent of his base runners coming around to score as Bettis probably deserves much better results. His last three starts have all been effective outings and since mid-June his FIP is just 2.97 with a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chris Tillman owns an incredible 14-2 record for the Orioles but his season FIP is almost identical to that for Bettis at 4.07. Tillman has gotten away with a 3.18 ERA thanks to a high strand rate and a very low BABIP. Tillman doesn't have a great strikeout rate and being more of a fly ball pitcher is dangerous against the Colorado lineup. Despite being 18 games over .500 Baltimore is only +41 in run differential this season while Colorado is just -6 despite being five games below .500 as these teams are closer together than the standings would suggest. Baltimore had just six hits last night in a 3-2 win to open the series and despite a five-game win streak the Orioles have scored just 2.9 runs per game since the All Star break in contrast the Rockies have scored over 4.9 runs per game in that span. The Baltimore bullpen has a clear edge in this matchup but since the break the Rockies have a 3.38 bullpen ERA and that edge isn't enough to justify nearly 2:1 pricing in this pitching matchup.
King Felix settled down and allowed just one run after digging himself into a 4-0 hole after two innings. Hernandez, who was activated off the DL prior to the game after dealing with a strained right calf that has sidelined him since late May, has experienced a dip in K/9 rate this season (7.1 vs. 8.5 in '15) while his BB/9 rate has climbed to 3.6 (2.6 in '15).
King Felix Hernandez returned for Seattle last week, and the first glance at the box score was ominous, with only two strikeouts vs. 10 hits allowed, but the Mariners rallied to win a game that he had them down 4-0 in the top of the second inning. Yet might there have been something positive to see? Perhaps, which makes his start tonight in Pittsburgh a prime one for the Eye Test.
Hernandez was a much different pitcher vs. the White Sox. He was recorded as having thrown his sinker 42.6 percent of the time, compared to just 28.6 for the full season. That pitch was also quite effective, getting a lot of contact outs and producing a 14.1 PPI, his second low for the campaign. Is that what we should expect to see going forward? Might he indeed be morphing into a ground-ball first guy? He has the savvy, and the competitor's heart, to potentially have an interesting career "Second Act", despite his fastball having falling from a high of 94.5 in 2008 to the current 90.3.
Francisco Liriano - 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks. 13 Ks and 0 walks from Liriano? This is the equivalent of Liriano sucking in his stomach for a beautiful lady passing by. Unfortunately that means you'll have to live with that revolting gut if you pick him up.
I really don't want to but I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't talk a little about Andrew Cashner after his third excellent performance in four starts with a line of 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Sure, two starts ago was an 8 ER clunker, but the other three add up to 17.2 innings of 3 ER, 14 Hits, 23 Ks and just 2 walks. Beautiful stuff. Now I took a peek to see what has changed with the fella, and it looks to be a heavier reliance on his Slider while he's kicked his Changeup out of his repertoire for not feeding the cat. His Slider has added horizontal movement as well as velocity, holding very close to its highest career marks in both during this four game span. Does it mean that his renaissance is justified and you should go nuts for the kid? Ehhhh it's not such a huge change that I think it'll last through the year, but as someone who has Cashed Out for so long, it certainly is something that would make me reconsider him for a 12 teamer and see where it goes. Just keep checking in on those numbers and if it tails off, get the hell outta Padge.
Marcus Stroman's volatility is underscored perfectly with his Game Scores of late: 62, 17, 37, 65, 73, 24 and 68. The Padres aren't a complete walkover these days, and while they do their best work against lefties, they have scored 3.6 runs per game against righties since June 1, ninth in the league, and their 3.8 percent home run rate is sixth.
Even with a couple shaky starts to open July, Steven Wright holds the AL lead in ERA, at 2.67. Those shaky starts were really just one bad inning apiece, as seven of the nine earned runs came in the final inning of those starts. More importantly, he has 23 strikeouts and a 3.8 K:BB ratio in his 25 July innings. Wright is going to have tough starts, like any pitcher, but I don't think we're going to see the bottom fall out on him, which is what we might have been waiting for when this run started.
Jaime Garcia has been far from special this year, with a 3.98 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with an elevated (for him) walk rate. His 3.2 BB/9 is his highest since 2010, and he has walked at least two in each of his past six starts. That said, three of those starts have been gems, and only one was a true disaster, so he can still succeed, even with the increased free passes. He's catching a chilly Mets team too. They have scored just 2.6 runs per game over their past 12 and failed to top five runs in any of them.
I know Jerad Eickhoff allowed five earned runs in five innings against the Marlins in his previous start, but Miami has a league-average offense at best, and I wouldn't ignore him just because of that bad start. The Marlins are also one of those teams that don't get a real home-field advantage. Their .714 OPS against righties at home is much lower than their .755 on the road. Home runs have been one of Eickhoff's issues this year (1.1 HR/9), so going to Miami helps him, as Marlins Stadium has the 25th-ranked home run park factor.
Gio Gonzalez has righted the ship a bit in July, with a 3.06 ERA in three starts, but the 13 strikeouts and nine walks in 17.7 innings put a damper on perceived improvements. He has allowed three homers in July (1.5 HR/9). In other words, he's still scuffling a bit. However, I'd entertain using him because the Cleveland Indians haven't been particularly good against southpaws this year. The AL Central leaders sit 26th in OPS against lefties, and they struggled badly in a three-game set at Baltimore, with just six total runs.
Gio has improved his ERA of late, but not so much his SO, HR and walks. So he'll still bit of a gas can. I think he'll be ok tonight, as Cleveland is #26 in OPS against lefties (up coming starts vs SF #15 or Arizona #2 will be stiffer tests, keep an eye out for that).
Over is 47-21-3 in CLE last 71 home games.
CLE is 8-2 in Salazar's last 10 starts
Cubs vs. White Sox
Play: Under 9
It?s a Windy City showdown as the Cubs and White Sox continue their interleague series on the south side of Chicago.
The Cubs (59-38, 29-22 road)will have fire-balling closer Aroldis Chapman at their disposal for the second of a four-game series. Chapman came over from the Yankees for a four-player package including top prospect Gleyber Torres. Meanwhile the Chisox (48-50, 26-24 home) have recorded three straight walk-off wins for the first time in nearly 54 years.
Hendricks (9-6, 2.27 ERA) has been among the Cubs most consistent starters this season. He?s 3-0 and hasn?t allowed an earned run in his last 17.1 innings. Hendricks is 5-0 with an 0.72 ERA over his last seven starts but 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts against the White Sox but did not earn a decision in either meeting.
Shields (4-12, 4.99 ERA) has recorded five straight quality starts and posted a 2.10 ERA over that span. He?s 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts against the Cubs.
The Cubs are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine overall while the White Sox are 7-2-2 to the UNDER in their past 11 overall.
The Cubbies have seven of their last 10 while the White Sox are 3-7 in their past 10. Since interleague play began in 1997, 60 of the 105 meetings between the crosstown rivals have been decided by three runs or fewer.
Atlanta's .655 OPS against righties is easily the worst in the league, as is the team's .117 ISO.
Under is 19-7-1 in ATL last 27 road games.
Over is 20-7-2 in MIN last 29 home games.
Atlanta at Minnesota
Play: Under 9
You can't help but be interested in a total of 9 involving the Atlanta Braves offense. The Braves enter tonight's game at Minnesota with the league's worst SLG pct. (.350) and OPS (.652). This is a squad that is averaging only 2.8 runs per game on the highway this season. Of the 10 games they've played this season with a total of 9 or higher, only two went over the total. They face a competent starter in Ervin Santana who since a midseason swoon has been very effective. Over his last six starts, Santana flashes a 2.03 ERA -- all of which against AL competition. Santana has also been far stronger at home with above average splits of .235/.283/.377. Atlanta will go with Lucas Harrell who is nothing more than a stop-gap as the Braves continue to eye next year and beyond. He's actually pitched fairly well with a 4.24 ERA in four starts. Anything close to a quality start from Harrell gives us a good shot to go under this inflated number.
Under is 10-1 in NYY last 11 overall.
HOU are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.
Skaggs has thrown 12 2/3 scoreless innings in his last two starts at Triple-A, giving up only two hits and issuing just three walks while striking out 26 batters. The 25-year-old left-hander threw his fastball mostly 91-92 mph and featured a sharp curveball, a pitch he struggled to command in the early stages of his return to pitching. Skaggs' next step will likely be to rejoin the Angels' rotation and start at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City on Tuesday, five days before the two-year anniversary of his last Major League start.
july 15 - Skaggs was brilliant with Triple-A Salt Lake on Thursday night, following back-to-back five-inning outings by tossing seven innings of one-hit, shutout baseball against Omaha. He struck out 14 batters, matching the Triple-A club record of 14, set by Jered Weaver.
#906 Milwaukee (8:10 Eastern), a spot in which Matt Garza may bring more than the markets expect, while the paint is slowly drying on what is a dreary 2016 mural for Patrick Corbin.
Garza brings no sex appeal to the markets at all with his 1-4/5.94, but there may be something to see. First note that overall he has not been nearly that bad, FIP reading him at 4.60, with both a .359 BABIP and 62.9 LOB% candidates to swing in his favor. But it was in charting his loss at Pittsburgh last week that things got interesting. Garza was throwing heat and making some good pitches, his average fastball at 93.5, more than a full mph higher than any of his previous six starts. And it wasn?t just the numbers on the page, but how he felt about it ? "I've been searching for my arm strength, searching for my breaking stuff, and tonight I had it all. I had a curveball, I had a good slider and a good changeup, (but) I waited too long to go soft early. And I paid for it."
He paid for it via a three-run HR by Matt Joyce in the first inning, but settled down to work well after that, which was not lost on manager Craig Counsell - "I thought he had great stuff - that's the best we've seen him in a while. Any time he fell behind, his off-speed was good in the strike zone, and his fastball was plus - 95 and a couple of 96s."
Patrick Corbin may be far younger than Garza, but he could only wish for that velocity. Corbin?s 2016 has been a 4-9/5.23 disaster, with FIP sitting right there at 5.18, and if anything his ERA has been rather fortunate ? over the last four starts there have also been nine unearned runs allowed, a rather natural consequence of bad pitching, much of it to contact, and bad defense (the Diamondbacks are #29 in PADE).
There does not appear to be any reason for optimism with Corbin. His K/9 has collapsed from 8.3 last season to 6.7, with SWS% making a similar decline from 10.8 to 9.0, while BB/9 has doubled from 1.8 to 3.6. He has lost nearly a full mph off of his 2015 fastball, and hasn?t finished the sixth inning over his last five starts, with no bounce at all after taking a full week off at the break ? the first two starts back have brought fastball registers of 90.6 and 90.7, the first time all season he has failed to reach 91 in back-to-back games.
Garza and the Brewers aren?t anything special, but with as low as -105 out there in the morning trading they don?t have to be.
------
I have a hard time eyeing Chris Archer as a top-flight option these days, and that isn't just this year. He sputtered into the finish line last year, with a 5.81 ERA in six September starts, and the struggles have continued with a 4.60 ERA in 21 starts this year. He has been particularly problematic on the road, with a 6.37 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 11 starts. He has allowed four or more runs nine times this year, and seven of those have come on the road.
TB are 3-14 in their last 17 road games.
LAD are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.
Under is 36-15 in LAD last 51 home games.
Rays vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
All things considered, this is a pretty cheap price on the home team, no? They'll host a Tampa Bay team that is among the lowest scoring in all of baseball and loses the DH spot from the order to boot. Not only have the Rays lost 41 of their past 59 games overall, they're just 3-7 in series openers. They are only 3-14 the L17 road games.
Dodgers starter Bud Norris is coming off B2B rocky outings on the road, but I wouldn't be too concerned about him here tonight at home. That's because he sports an excellent WHIP (0.951) in seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year. Again, he'll be facing a pretty meager offense as well, one that ranks only 25th in runs scored. His team has won 21 of its past 27 home games and is 11-5 its L16 vs. the AL here in LA.
Like every other Rays pitcher this year, Chris Archer has regressed and the results have been mostly ugly, particularly out here on the road. His ERA/WHIP are 6.37/1.635 outside of Tropicana Field. He is off a quality start, but those have been rare for the right-hander this season (just 9 in 21 total tries). I haven't even mentioned yet how TB just lost three in a row at Oakland, scoring just five runs in the process. The team is also 0-6 w/ Archer on the mound if he threw a quality start his last time out. The Dodgers generally have taken care of the weaker competition on the schedule, winning seven straight against teams w/ a win percentage below .400.
Chris Archer has been a topic here a few times this season because his stuff really is interesting - there is a lot of pop (10.7 K/9), but a 17.2% HR/FB has done him in. But I don't think we should overly penalize him for that count - working in the AL East does not help, and there have been non-division road trips to hitter's parks in Arizona and Colorado. Even more important, Archer is a clear leader in DBF, with the slash line of the batters he has faced checking in at .267/.333/.442. How tough of a schedule is that? It would be the equivalent of each of his starts being against the #4 team in Average, #4 in On-Base, and #5 in Slugging. His 5-13/4.60 does not come close to measuring his ability.
Reed picked up his first quality start on Tuesday with six innings vs. the Braves, but he still seeks his first big league win. In his last couple of innings, he slowed his tempo and relaxed more, featuring his hard slider vs. hitters with success.
07:05 PM [920] TOTAL u9.5 -125 (COL ROCKIES vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( C BETTIS -R / C TILLMAN -R )
07:10 PM [924] CLE INDIANS -150 ( G GONZALEZ -L / D SALAZAR -R )
08:10 PM [926] TOTAL u9.5 -110 (ATL BRAVES vrs MIN TWINS) ( L HARRELL -R / E SANTANA -R )
10:10 PM [930] LA DODGERS -131 ( C ARCHER -R / B NORRIS -R )
1 unit bet pays 17.89 ....betdsi line
07:10 PM PHI PHILLIES +121 ( J EICKHOFF -R / T KOEHLER -R )
10:15 PM TOTAL o8.5 -110 (CIN REDS vrs SFO GIANTS) ( C REED -L / M CAIN -R )
08:10 PM HOU ASTROS -145 ( C SABATHIA -L / D FISTER -R )
08:15 PM LA ANGELS -122 ( T SKAGGS -L / D GEE -R )
07:05 PM SDG PADRES +220 ( A CASHNER -R / M STROMAN -R )
07:10 PM TOTAL u9-110 (CHI CUBS vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( K HENDRICKS -R / J SHIELDS -R )
1 unit bet pays 78 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-114, -18.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Chris Tillman - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Jesus Tillman. I don't like talking about Wins since they are such a random stat outside of the super good/super bad and is based more on your team than your ability, but I used to have a saying that went you can't spell Win with Tillman. Well, I think Tilly here heard me and has gone 14-2 so far this year. Not because he's incredible - he's holding a 4.08 FIP and 4.44 xFIP with a 3.39 BB/9 - but because the Orioles like to get 2 ER in three games before turning on the jets for Tilly Mcgill over here. It's annoying because I really liked saying that dumb little phrase (it just rolls off the tongue like my cellar whore) (second parenthesis because that joke will most likely not be appreciated but my peak delirium self wants it to get the spotlight it deserves so here we are) and I guess I need to retire if for the time being. Stupid Tillman getting more than he deserves.
Chris Tillman has regularly been one of those guys who outruns his component numbers for a better ERA. He has consistently held a FIP between 4.01 and 4.42 since 2012, yet he has a 3.72 ERA in 800 innings over that time. He usually has solid-but-unspectacular strikeout and walk numbers, and 2016 is no different, with a 7.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9, but he's really difficult to square up, which is why he has held a .268 BABIP since 2012, including a .262 this year, which is tied for 16th-best with that Clayton Kershaw dude. The Rockies offense has just a .708 OPS against righties on the road, which is 21st in the league.
Bettis' ERA is quite unsightly at 5.55, but he's pitched a lot better than it appears. His FIP of 4.19 shows he's been quite unlucky so far this year thanks in part to a .344 BABIP. Given he calls Coors Field home, it's difficult to believe the 27-year-old can pitch up to what his peripherals suggest.
Colorado Rockies + over Baltimore Orioles
Chad Bettis is pitching pretty well for the Rockies with eight wins and while every Rockies starter is going to have a few blowup games at home his 4.11 FIP is well below his 5.31 ERA. A .335 BABIP has been unfortunate along with nearly 35 percent of his base runners coming around to score as Bettis probably deserves much better results. His last three starts have all been effective outings and since mid-June his FIP is just 2.97 with a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chris Tillman owns an incredible 14-2 record for the Orioles but his season FIP is almost identical to that for Bettis at 4.07. Tillman has gotten away with a 3.18 ERA thanks to a high strand rate and a very low BABIP. Tillman doesn't have a great strikeout rate and being more of a fly ball pitcher is dangerous against the Colorado lineup. Despite being 18 games over .500 Baltimore is only +41 in run differential this season while Colorado is just -6 despite being five games below .500 as these teams are closer together than the standings would suggest. Baltimore had just six hits last night in a 3-2 win to open the series and despite a five-game win streak the Orioles have scored just 2.9 runs per game since the All Star break in contrast the Rockies have scored over 4.9 runs per game in that span. The Baltimore bullpen has a clear edge in this matchup but since the break the Rockies have a 3.38 bullpen ERA and that edge isn't enough to justify nearly 2:1 pricing in this pitching matchup.
King Felix settled down and allowed just one run after digging himself into a 4-0 hole after two innings. Hernandez, who was activated off the DL prior to the game after dealing with a strained right calf that has sidelined him since late May, has experienced a dip in K/9 rate this season (7.1 vs. 8.5 in '15) while his BB/9 rate has climbed to 3.6 (2.6 in '15).
King Felix Hernandez returned for Seattle last week, and the first glance at the box score was ominous, with only two strikeouts vs. 10 hits allowed, but the Mariners rallied to win a game that he had them down 4-0 in the top of the second inning. Yet might there have been something positive to see? Perhaps, which makes his start tonight in Pittsburgh a prime one for the Eye Test.
Hernandez was a much different pitcher vs. the White Sox. He was recorded as having thrown his sinker 42.6 percent of the time, compared to just 28.6 for the full season. That pitch was also quite effective, getting a lot of contact outs and producing a 14.1 PPI, his second low for the campaign. Is that what we should expect to see going forward? Might he indeed be morphing into a ground-ball first guy? He has the savvy, and the competitor's heart, to potentially have an interesting career "Second Act", despite his fastball having falling from a high of 94.5 in 2008 to the current 90.3.
Francisco Liriano - 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks. 13 Ks and 0 walks from Liriano? This is the equivalent of Liriano sucking in his stomach for a beautiful lady passing by. Unfortunately that means you'll have to live with that revolting gut if you pick him up.
I really don't want to but I'd be doing you a disservice if I didn't talk a little about Andrew Cashner after his third excellent performance in four starts with a line of 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Sure, two starts ago was an 8 ER clunker, but the other three add up to 17.2 innings of 3 ER, 14 Hits, 23 Ks and just 2 walks. Beautiful stuff. Now I took a peek to see what has changed with the fella, and it looks to be a heavier reliance on his Slider while he's kicked his Changeup out of his repertoire for not feeding the cat. His Slider has added horizontal movement as well as velocity, holding very close to its highest career marks in both during this four game span. Does it mean that his renaissance is justified and you should go nuts for the kid? Ehhhh it's not such a huge change that I think it'll last through the year, but as someone who has Cashed Out for so long, it certainly is something that would make me reconsider him for a 12 teamer and see where it goes. Just keep checking in on those numbers and if it tails off, get the hell outta Padge.
Marcus Stroman's volatility is underscored perfectly with his Game Scores of late: 62, 17, 37, 65, 73, 24 and 68. The Padres aren't a complete walkover these days, and while they do their best work against lefties, they have scored 3.6 runs per game against righties since June 1, ninth in the league, and their 3.8 percent home run rate is sixth.
Even with a couple shaky starts to open July, Steven Wright holds the AL lead in ERA, at 2.67. Those shaky starts were really just one bad inning apiece, as seven of the nine earned runs came in the final inning of those starts. More importantly, he has 23 strikeouts and a 3.8 K:BB ratio in his 25 July innings. Wright is going to have tough starts, like any pitcher, but I don't think we're going to see the bottom fall out on him, which is what we might have been waiting for when this run started.
Jaime Garcia has been far from special this year, with a 3.98 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with an elevated (for him) walk rate. His 3.2 BB/9 is his highest since 2010, and he has walked at least two in each of his past six starts. That said, three of those starts have been gems, and only one was a true disaster, so he can still succeed, even with the increased free passes. He's catching a chilly Mets team too. They have scored just 2.6 runs per game over their past 12 and failed to top five runs in any of them.
I know Jerad Eickhoff allowed five earned runs in five innings against the Marlins in his previous start, but Miami has a league-average offense at best, and I wouldn't ignore him just because of that bad start. The Marlins are also one of those teams that don't get a real home-field advantage. Their .714 OPS against righties at home is much lower than their .755 on the road. Home runs have been one of Eickhoff's issues this year (1.1 HR/9), so going to Miami helps him, as Marlins Stadium has the 25th-ranked home run park factor.
Gio Gonzalez has righted the ship a bit in July, with a 3.06 ERA in three starts, but the 13 strikeouts and nine walks in 17.7 innings put a damper on perceived improvements. He has allowed three homers in July (1.5 HR/9). In other words, he's still scuffling a bit. However, I'd entertain using him because the Cleveland Indians haven't been particularly good against southpaws this year. The AL Central leaders sit 26th in OPS against lefties, and they struggled badly in a three-game set at Baltimore, with just six total runs.
Gio has improved his ERA of late, but not so much his SO, HR and walks. So he'll still bit of a gas can. I think he'll be ok tonight, as Cleveland is #26 in OPS against lefties (up coming starts vs SF #15 or Arizona #2 will be stiffer tests, keep an eye out for that).
Over is 47-21-3 in CLE last 71 home games.
CLE is 8-2 in Salazar's last 10 starts
Cubs vs. White Sox
Play: Under 9
It?s a Windy City showdown as the Cubs and White Sox continue their interleague series on the south side of Chicago.
The Cubs (59-38, 29-22 road)will have fire-balling closer Aroldis Chapman at their disposal for the second of a four-game series. Chapman came over from the Yankees for a four-player package including top prospect Gleyber Torres. Meanwhile the Chisox (48-50, 26-24 home) have recorded three straight walk-off wins for the first time in nearly 54 years.
Hendricks (9-6, 2.27 ERA) has been among the Cubs most consistent starters this season. He?s 3-0 and hasn?t allowed an earned run in his last 17.1 innings. Hendricks is 5-0 with an 0.72 ERA over his last seven starts but 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts against the White Sox but did not earn a decision in either meeting.
Shields (4-12, 4.99 ERA) has recorded five straight quality starts and posted a 2.10 ERA over that span. He?s 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts against the Cubs.
The Cubs are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine overall while the White Sox are 7-2-2 to the UNDER in their past 11 overall.
The Cubbies have seven of their last 10 while the White Sox are 3-7 in their past 10. Since interleague play began in 1997, 60 of the 105 meetings between the crosstown rivals have been decided by three runs or fewer.
Atlanta's .655 OPS against righties is easily the worst in the league, as is the team's .117 ISO.
Under is 19-7-1 in ATL last 27 road games.
Over is 20-7-2 in MIN last 29 home games.
Atlanta at Minnesota
Play: Under 9
You can't help but be interested in a total of 9 involving the Atlanta Braves offense. The Braves enter tonight's game at Minnesota with the league's worst SLG pct. (.350) and OPS (.652). This is a squad that is averaging only 2.8 runs per game on the highway this season. Of the 10 games they've played this season with a total of 9 or higher, only two went over the total. They face a competent starter in Ervin Santana who since a midseason swoon has been very effective. Over his last six starts, Santana flashes a 2.03 ERA -- all of which against AL competition. Santana has also been far stronger at home with above average splits of .235/.283/.377. Atlanta will go with Lucas Harrell who is nothing more than a stop-gap as the Braves continue to eye next year and beyond. He's actually pitched fairly well with a 4.24 ERA in four starts. Anything close to a quality start from Harrell gives us a good shot to go under this inflated number.
Under is 10-1 in NYY last 11 overall.
HOU are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.
Skaggs has thrown 12 2/3 scoreless innings in his last two starts at Triple-A, giving up only two hits and issuing just three walks while striking out 26 batters. The 25-year-old left-hander threw his fastball mostly 91-92 mph and featured a sharp curveball, a pitch he struggled to command in the early stages of his return to pitching. Skaggs' next step will likely be to rejoin the Angels' rotation and start at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City on Tuesday, five days before the two-year anniversary of his last Major League start.
july 15 - Skaggs was brilliant with Triple-A Salt Lake on Thursday night, following back-to-back five-inning outings by tossing seven innings of one-hit, shutout baseball against Omaha. He struck out 14 batters, matching the Triple-A club record of 14, set by Jered Weaver.
#906 Milwaukee (8:10 Eastern), a spot in which Matt Garza may bring more than the markets expect, while the paint is slowly drying on what is a dreary 2016 mural for Patrick Corbin.
Garza brings no sex appeal to the markets at all with his 1-4/5.94, but there may be something to see. First note that overall he has not been nearly that bad, FIP reading him at 4.60, with both a .359 BABIP and 62.9 LOB% candidates to swing in his favor. But it was in charting his loss at Pittsburgh last week that things got interesting. Garza was throwing heat and making some good pitches, his average fastball at 93.5, more than a full mph higher than any of his previous six starts. And it wasn?t just the numbers on the page, but how he felt about it ? "I've been searching for my arm strength, searching for my breaking stuff, and tonight I had it all. I had a curveball, I had a good slider and a good changeup, (but) I waited too long to go soft early. And I paid for it."
He paid for it via a three-run HR by Matt Joyce in the first inning, but settled down to work well after that, which was not lost on manager Craig Counsell - "I thought he had great stuff - that's the best we've seen him in a while. Any time he fell behind, his off-speed was good in the strike zone, and his fastball was plus - 95 and a couple of 96s."
Patrick Corbin may be far younger than Garza, but he could only wish for that velocity. Corbin?s 2016 has been a 4-9/5.23 disaster, with FIP sitting right there at 5.18, and if anything his ERA has been rather fortunate ? over the last four starts there have also been nine unearned runs allowed, a rather natural consequence of bad pitching, much of it to contact, and bad defense (the Diamondbacks are #29 in PADE).
There does not appear to be any reason for optimism with Corbin. His K/9 has collapsed from 8.3 last season to 6.7, with SWS% making a similar decline from 10.8 to 9.0, while BB/9 has doubled from 1.8 to 3.6. He has lost nearly a full mph off of his 2015 fastball, and hasn?t finished the sixth inning over his last five starts, with no bounce at all after taking a full week off at the break ? the first two starts back have brought fastball registers of 90.6 and 90.7, the first time all season he has failed to reach 91 in back-to-back games.
Garza and the Brewers aren?t anything special, but with as low as -105 out there in the morning trading they don?t have to be.
------
I have a hard time eyeing Chris Archer as a top-flight option these days, and that isn't just this year. He sputtered into the finish line last year, with a 5.81 ERA in six September starts, and the struggles have continued with a 4.60 ERA in 21 starts this year. He has been particularly problematic on the road, with a 6.37 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 11 starts. He has allowed four or more runs nine times this year, and seven of those have come on the road.
TB are 3-14 in their last 17 road games.
LAD are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.
Under is 36-15 in LAD last 51 home games.
Rays vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
All things considered, this is a pretty cheap price on the home team, no? They'll host a Tampa Bay team that is among the lowest scoring in all of baseball and loses the DH spot from the order to boot. Not only have the Rays lost 41 of their past 59 games overall, they're just 3-7 in series openers. They are only 3-14 the L17 road games.
Dodgers starter Bud Norris is coming off B2B rocky outings on the road, but I wouldn't be too concerned about him here tonight at home. That's because he sports an excellent WHIP (0.951) in seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year. Again, he'll be facing a pretty meager offense as well, one that ranks only 25th in runs scored. His team has won 21 of its past 27 home games and is 11-5 its L16 vs. the AL here in LA.
Like every other Rays pitcher this year, Chris Archer has regressed and the results have been mostly ugly, particularly out here on the road. His ERA/WHIP are 6.37/1.635 outside of Tropicana Field. He is off a quality start, but those have been rare for the right-hander this season (just 9 in 21 total tries). I haven't even mentioned yet how TB just lost three in a row at Oakland, scoring just five runs in the process. The team is also 0-6 w/ Archer on the mound if he threw a quality start his last time out. The Dodgers generally have taken care of the weaker competition on the schedule, winning seven straight against teams w/ a win percentage below .400.
Chris Archer has been a topic here a few times this season because his stuff really is interesting - there is a lot of pop (10.7 K/9), but a 17.2% HR/FB has done him in. But I don't think we should overly penalize him for that count - working in the AL East does not help, and there have been non-division road trips to hitter's parks in Arizona and Colorado. Even more important, Archer is a clear leader in DBF, with the slash line of the batters he has faced checking in at .267/.333/.442. How tough of a schedule is that? It would be the equivalent of each of his starts being against the #4 team in Average, #4 in On-Base, and #5 in Slugging. His 5-13/4.60 does not come close to measuring his ability.
Reed picked up his first quality start on Tuesday with six innings vs. the Braves, but he still seeks his first big league win. In his last couple of innings, he slowed his tempo and relaxed more, featuring his hard slider vs. hitters with success.
