Tuesday 12/20 Bowl Games (aka mini-MACtion!)

[Smitty]

Potato Bowl

I already wrote a little about this game in another thread, so i'm not going to repeat that. Basically San Jose St has been mediocre at best since the loss to Fresno. I'm certainly not betting on EMU here, i'm betting against San Jose St.
Both coaches are looking for their first bowl win. Brennan (SJS) is 0-1 while Creighton (EMU) is 0-4.:scared

Some quick stats, although this bet is not about the #s for me. SJS gets 74% of their yards through the air, which is good for EMU, because they can't stop the run.

SJS has only turned the ball over 6 times all year, which is tied for the best mark in the country.

If this comes down to the kicking game, solid advantage for EMU. Gomez is 13 of 16, with a 55-yarder. Schive for SJS is 12 of 17 with a long of 43 and he's only 6 of 8 under 30 yards and 3 of 5 between 30-39 yards. Very inconsistent.

EMU (+4.5) 4 units
EMU (ML) 1 to win 1.6
Over 55 2 units. Not even sure why I'm playing this total. Kinda throwing darts here. However, the winner of this game has scored at least 30 points 6 straight years and 9 of the last 10.

Updated Bowl Record
Sides: 3-4 +1.0
ML: 1-3 -1.9
Totals: 5-4 +8.0

 

[Smitty]

Boca Raton Bowl

Sounds like there are a lot of question marks re: who from Liberty is going to play in this game. I've given up trying to verify who has opted out. I do know Hunter, their starting RB, is out. That's a big loss, as he averaged 6.6 yards/carry. The likely starter, Louis, averages 4.3. Green will also get some carries, and he averages 5.3/carry.

Charlie Brewer (remember him?) was supposed to be Liberty's starting qb. He broke his hand after throwing 4 passes in the season opener. He entered the game against BYU 10/22, but didn't throw a pass. He didn't appear in a game again until mop-up duty in a blowout loss to.... *double checks*... New Mexico St. The 2 guys who have played in his absence have been... meh. They've combined to complete 58% of their passes for 19 TDs and 14 INTs. And they've taken 36 sacks.

Toledo's pass defense has been excellent. They allow 5.91 yards/attempt, which is 6th in the country. Liberty is going to have to run the ball, and I don't think they're going to have much success. If Toledo gets a lead and Liberty has to throw the ball.... that bodes well for the Mud Hens. What do you mean "that's a different Toledo team"? Well that is some bullshit.

One thing that could make this game... interesting.... both teams are in the bottom 10 in the country for losing turnovers. That adds a large variable that you can't handicap for.

Ultimately this comes down to the fact that I can't bet on a team that just lost to UConn, Virginia Tech, and... *triple checks*... New Mexico St. The home loss to NM St was on Senior Day. And they gave up 36 points to UConn. Y'all saw UConn yesterday. A decent Pop Warner team would hold them to 20. Clearly Liberty has checked out of the season. While Toledo is certainly capable of giving them enough turnovers to keep them in the game, I gotta play Toledo. Which means I'm laying points with a MAC team in a bowl game. Just great.

Toledo (-3.5) 2 units
LIberty TT under (23.5) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

Updated Bowl Record
Sides: 4-5 +2.8
ML: 2-3 -0.3
Totals: 7-4 +12.0