First Responder Bowl
Memphis is... pretty mediocre this year. And their reward for that mediocre season? A bowl game in the same stadium as their last game of the season! How exciting!
Utah St is looking up at mediocrity. Their 1-4 start included a 35-7 drubbing by... Weber St. Not sure what bowl game Weber St is playing in this year. :lol: Utah St's only score that game was a kickoff return. Solid effort. And that was when they had their QB1, Logan Bonner. Well, Bonner was lost for the season in September and their QB2 has been hurt for most of the year. So QB3, Cooper Legas has been the man for most of the season. And he's been about as good as you'd expect from the QB3 at Utah St. Maybe even better. He's completed 61% of his passes, averaging 7.0 yards/att with 11 TDs and 9 INTs. Not surprisingly, the Aggies average 200.2 passing yds/game, 104th in the country.
Memphis allows 7.05 yards/att, 61st in the country.
Utah St does most of their work on the ground, but they're in trouble there, too. They only average 3.8 yds/carry. And it gets worse. Tyler and Briggs, their top 2 RBs, are out. The likely starter is Pailate Makakona, who has 20 carries on the year for all of 60 yards, with a longest gain of 9 yards. Last year, he got 42 carries for 110 yards, with a long of 14 yards. This is not an explosive back.
Surprisingly, Memphis does a decent job against the run, allowing 3.53 yds/carry, which is 27th in the country.
Not surprisingly, Memphis relies on the passing attack to move the ball. Henigan averages 7.9 yds/att. He's thrown 19 TDs and 8 INTs. For this offense, that TD feels low. Last year, as a freshman, he threw 25 TDs along with 8 INTs. He's also taken 29 sacks, which is high. Luckily for him, Utah St is 92nd in the country with only 23 sacks.
Utah St has been ok against the pass, giving up 198 yards/game and 6.94 yards/att.
Memphis has just enough of a ground game to keep defenses honest. Their top 2 backs average 4.9 yards/carry. And they may want to attack the Aggies on the ground, as they allow 4.92 yards/carry, which is 116th in the country.
My inclination is to take Utah St's defensive #s with a grain of salt. They didn't exactly face a murderer's row of offenses in the Mountain West. And the last 3 games they gave up 34 to Hawaii (115th in the nation in scoring), 31 to San Jose St, and 42 to Boise St.
Quick note on Utah St's season... they opened with a win over Uconn, then lost 4 straight (including to Weber St and UNLV), then inexplicably beat Air Force. And while they did win 4 of their last 6 after that game, those wins were over Colorado St, New Mexico, Hawai'l, and a reeling San Jose St team. They certainly benefited from a very weak bottom of the Mountain West.
However, Memphis only beat one bowl team this year, North Texas. And in that game, Memphis scored on 2 TAINTs and 2 TD "drives" of 33 and 9 yards. Henigan only threw for 141 yards, but they scored 44 points. Their other wins were over Navy, Arkansas St, Temple, Tulsa, and Alabama. WHOOPS! Make that North Alabama.
I'm having a very difficult time picking a side. I don't want to lay a TD with what is likely to be an unmotivated Memphis team. But I don't feel like I can trust Utah St. Obviously we've already cashed on some bad teams this bowl season. I feel like I may be going to the well one too many times....
Utah St (+7) 2 units
Utah St (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3
Under (58.5) 2 units. Damn near bet the over. But there's almost literally no way Utah St hangs around in a high-scoring game.
Utah St 1H (+4) 2 units
Treading lightly on this one. Utah St is going to have to force some TOs and put a lot of pressure on Henigan to have a chance.
