Tuesday 2 cents

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Gonna get a head-start, here.
May be a little distracted later.

(BB only)
mon: 0-ouch(1) -4.35
all: 24-18 +9.15

What can I say ... saw I wasn't alone in thinking the Angels might plate something. I'd do it again. Phillies increase their HR total vs lefties from 5 to 7 ... still MLB worst. Can't blame Washburn(me) here.

Perfection Is Overrated

Onward...

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Seasons change and so did I
You need not wonder why

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Marlins(Redman)@Brewers(Sheets)
-Redman threw a complete game, 4-hitter vs Brewers April 24th (1 BB, 11 K); lefties hitting just .181, vs righties .294
-Sheets has been a disappointment for the Brewers, so far; former 1st round pick has allowed opponents to hit .277 vs in his career, and he's very susceptible to the long ball (18 this year!, in 96.2 IP); been much better his past 2, @Dodgers & @Mets, going 7 innings each time (W, 5-3 in both); current Marlins batting .372 vs Sheets
-Philly same avg (.249) on R/L, but slugging up vs R (.417 vs .341)
-similar drop-off for Brewers vs L (.238 avg, .372 slg vs L, .249, .413 vs R)
-neither BP dominates
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Marlins: 752, Brewers: 708
PITCH: Marlins: 77, Brewers: 76
Slight leanage, here, towards fish, but I don't like them enough to lay juice on the road vs Sheets, who's been better in his past 2. I'm waiting for Wed, hoping for a good price on Willis over Franklin.
PASS

Total at 8.5 looks scary, either way, as Sheets may or may not revert back, and Redman appears to be overachieving this season.

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Cards(Williams)@Bosox(Kim)
-Woody brought his era down under 2(!), and his whip under 1, with the 8-inning beauty he threw vs former team Jays (1 hit, 1 BB, 5 K); please tell me what magic happened to this guy since he ixnayed from T.O. (I want a piece of that)
-I've been expecting an announced pitching change in Boston, with Kim working scheduled to go on just 2 days rest (41 pitches in relief), but the slew of injuries plaguing the Sox staff appears to be forcing the start; he beat Cards 4-3 with a solid 7-inning performance April 19th at Busch; righties batting just .187 against in his career, lefties not much better at .219 (.250 R, .212 L this season)
-both clubs smoking offensively, though Bosox were handled by a weak Franklin (brewers) a few days back (lefty), and the Cards were shut down by Ponson on Saturday (both clubs bounced back from these poor performances with a vengeance)
-neither BP impressive; slight edge Cards
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Cards: 822, Bosox: 850
PITCH: Cards: 88, Bosox: 73
This should be a great series. Hurts to Sox starters may take it's toll on their pen (I'd like to play the over on Mendoza's IP for this series). I like the Cards to take the opener, 58-42
Price: Cards +110 (PV +10)
I'm on this one way early.
PLAY:
Cards +110
2/2.2

Total is a pass, at 9, though a short outing by Williams (4 days rest, but just 98 pitches in last) would favour the over. Kim can't be expected to go deep, and the D'Backs pen has some hurts of it's own.

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I am stripped of all but pride, so in her I do confide

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Padres(Tollberg)@Indians(Traber)
-I don't buy the decent #'s that Tollberg has put up in his first 2 this season (vs D'Backs & Tigers) - this guy has been very poundable in his career (.291 oba in 52 games, w/51 starts)
-too early to tell if Traber can reach his lofty potential - rookie 1st rounder holding lefties to meager .194 ba; only 2 HR allowed in his first 31.1 IP
-both clubs hitting righties better than lefties; Pads just 9 HR on year vs L
-Injuns Burks day-to-day with a sore right arm
-both bullpens poor
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Padres: 692, Indians: 694
PITCH: Padres: 66, Indians: 73
I gotta like the Indians here, at home, but a couple of pitchers going who probably won't have very long outtings, a couple of poor bullpens, and 2 very uninspiring offenses make the Indians play less attractive, and the total (9) a crapshoot.
For what it's worth I pegged the Injuns 59-41 (PV +3)
PASS

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Pirates(Benson)@Blue Jays(Lidle)
-former 1st overall pick Benson has been as disappointing as has his buddy Ben Sheets - 35-38, for his career, doesn't sound so bad playing for the Pirates, but lefties are hitting him a solid .305 on the year (.288 career), and righties a very respectable .274 (.244 career); BB total respectable this year (19 in 78.2 IP), but 91 hits surrendered leaves his whip at an unspectacular 1.40; only 5 HR allowed in his first 10 starts, but he's surrendered 4 in his past 2 (14 IP @Cubs & vs Bosox - 2 each game)
-Lidle roughed up @Cards in last to pick up his 2nd straight Loss, this after winning 5 straight (8-4, club 8-5)
-neither pen impressive; slight edge Pirates
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Pirates: 695, Jays: 830
PITCH: Pirates: 73, Jays: 76
Jays superior offense should prevail in this matchup. Concerns in this one include Lidle's recent slump, Jays unfamiliarity w/Benson, and Jays atrocious BP. Not enough to dissuade me. Jays 68-32
Price: Jays -155 (PV +7)
PLAY:
Jays -155
1.55/1

Neither pitcher on fire, but I couldn't justify playing this over 10 with the Pirates weak offense, and the Jays current smoke-and-mirrors offensive work, what with important lead-off man Stewart out of the lineup (WAS on his way to a possible career-year).

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What I thought was love, it must have been lust

 

[ajoytoy]

great insight EP..always enjoy reading your posts

gl on all your plays


toy

 

[thisisbad]

I second that, always good reading. Even if i don't agree with your plays i try to check what you have.

The time you put into it is apprecaited.

For what it's worth thinking a SEA/TOR parlay tomorrow

Also looking at Tex over

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

thanks for the info, extra.....great stuff.

gluck to u, steel.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thank-You
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Dodgers(Nomo)@Tigers(Knotts)
-Nomo not very successful vs Tigers in career, including 3-6 @Comerica Park with unimpressive #'s overall
-Knotts doing fair work as a converted reliever, but has been pummelled in 3 of his last 4, including vs Padres & Chisox
-both clubs have solid pens, Dodgers the more impressive
-a few Tigers bats, including Higginson, listed as day-to-day
-don't expect an offensive show as both clubs near the basement, and both clubs hitting righties worse than lefties
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Dodgers: 652, Tigers: 595
PITCH: Dodgers: 81, Tigers: 70
Dodgers the obvious choice, but a good Tigers pen may be able to salvage the inevitable short outting by Knotts, and Tigers had Nomo's # while he was in the AL. Looking at Dodgers 60-40
Price: Dodgers -202 (PV -7)
PASS

Tigers moneyline gives me about a PV +5, but I'm a spectator at the 40% call. Total, at 7.5, does nothing for me; Nomo has been spectacular this year, but maybe there is something to this Tigers trouble. 3 of 4 starts by Knotts @Comerica have been solid, while 3 of past 4 have stunk, including his only recent outting @Comerica. I like nothing here.

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Astros(Miller)@Yankees(Mussina)
-Miller tougher on righties this season (.219 vs .243 career), while easing up on lefties (.287 vs .253 career); has looked much better since the end of April, dropping his era from 6.07 to 4.67
-Mussina has solid #'s on the year, but he's 0-4 in his last 5 starts, since beginning '03 with 7 straight W's, raising his era from 1.70 to 3.09 in the process; 5 HR allowed in first 10 starts, and has allowed 5 more in past 2, including 4 @Reds in last
-Astros with the better BP here
-both clubs with good offensive #'s, with Astros picking it up lately and Yankees slacking off; Yanks hit righties better than they do L, while Astros hit L slightly better than they do R
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Astros: 763, Yanks: 816
PITCH: Astros: 82, Yanks: 83
The way the Yankees have been playing lately, I'm tempted to try the Astros here with the improving Miller. However, Yanks are returning home, have Cy Young candidate Mussina going (who, while slumping, has still been better than most), and are overdue to start exerting their wills at home. #'s tell me edge to Yankees, 60-40
Price: Yanks -157 (PV -2)
PASS

Despite a couple of power offenses going, I notice that Mussina's whip is under 1 at home (w/2.52 era), while Miller has had (arguably) his 2 best starts on the road. Under 8.5 at Yankee Stadium may be dangerous, especially w/2 righties going, but I'm grabbing a small piece with this matchup.
PLAY:
under 8.5 -110
0.55/0.5

Dang Angels...
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You can't always get what you want

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks, All

...and certainly don't mind countering opinions appearing (prefer it, actually).

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Cubs(Estes)@Orioles(Hentgen)
-Estes surely not reaching Cubs expectations this season; righties batting .327, lefties .288 this year
-Hentgen looks like a potential disabled list victim lately, as he has been McStruggling; pummelled in past 3 starts - Rangers(2) and Astros; early competition included Indians, D'Rays, Tigers, and Royals - these weaker clubs hit him as well; lefties batting over .300 vs in '03
-BP edge to Cubs
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Cubs: 735, O's: 768
PITCH: Cubs: 76, O's: 67
This game seems like a coin-toss to me. Both of these offenses are very unpredictable. I'm a spectator for the first one in this series. PASSOLA.

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Think I'm gonna work tomorrow, and try and get back some of my Angels grrr/oops/oh well/chit 'appens/play 'em again in same scenario lossage.

Actually that's bo-bo: a buddy of mine needs help w/something, and the silly man insists on paying.
Regardless, I need(/hate) sleep.

Maybe do some laptop-completion, if possible, but here are the %s I came up with, and my plays:

Reds 54-46 (PV -7 at -153)PASS
Royals 63-37 (PV +6 at -130)PLAY:KC -130 -+- 1.3/1
Twins 56-44 (PV -7 at -166)PASS...may add Rocks if moves to +160 or better
Rangers 61-39 (PV +2 at -141)PASS
--over 10.5 tempting, but not at -125, and not with A-Rod Q
Giants 54-46 (PV -1 at -119)PASS
--Garland much better at home, otherwise I'l meaning over here, too
Braves 53-47 (PV +5 at +110)PLAY:Braves +110 -+- 1/1.1
Mariners 58-42 (PV -1 at -141)
--Expos not hitting much these days, Vazquez is a monster (though Olerud and Colbrunn have hit him), and game is at SAFECO (Meche's #'s much better there, as are most pichers'), so...PLAY: under 8 -120 -+- 1.2/1
Angels 58-42 (PV -1 at -137)PASS -- starting edge to Duckworth here, and no way I can try the champs after yesterday's barrage of 0's vs Padilla & company
-HP Wendelstedt a slight over-lean since the expanded strike zone began, and the pitching matchup may warrant it (Lackey has been brutal, but Duckworth may be finding his stride), but these teams may play another tight one, so PASSORAMA.

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Totality:
Cards +110 2/2.2
Jays -155 1.55/1
Astros@Yanks under 8.5 -110 0.55/0.5
Royals -130 1.3/1
Braves +110 1/1.1
Expos@M's under 8 -120 1.2/1

Quiet Tuesday for me. Under and Giguere saved my day, but the confidence I had in ... I dunno ... the Angels maybe scoring a run or two:shrug: will chill me for this board.

Wednesday may be more promising, anyway.
Early thoughts include:
Marlins (-130ish?...any lower and poundage possible)
Cards@Sox over (Pedro shortness likely -- thanks cooz3)
Padres@Indians under (I like the matchup; need decent #, though, @Jacobs Field)
Jays(w/Halladay, or maybe under if (likely) Jays too pricey)
Dodgers -1.5(if not -150, or something likewise goofy)
Astros@Yanks under(especially if 1st is low-scoring or otherwise dictates it)
Cubs(if cheap...Clement maybe coming to life and Daal, well...)
Twins(Lohse is on fire...probably pass at the expected -180)
-runline on Twins if +money...surely
Mets@Rangers under(may get a nice, high # here -- hot Seo to quiet the Rangers bats, and my grandmother (err...Santos) to quiet the Mets bats
Giants(may be +money here, vs Buehrle, and SF has been smokin' lefties, similar to last season)
Phillies(if +money, I surely like the youngster Myers over Appier)

Enjoy It While It Is What It Is

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I understand about indecision
and I don't care if I get behind
People living in competition
All I want is to have my peace of mind

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Dang ... I forgot how to fall asleep.

Doubling up on this one. An alternative book is lowering the price.
AND ... the more I think about it the more I like it.
KC .320 last 10 vs R (D'Backs very respectable .281)
KC .280 road vs R (D'B .247 away)
.268 and .265 vs R overall, KC & D'B respectively
Dessens is crap (and slumping), while Snyder has great potential and has performed quite well in his 1st 7 big-league starts ('99 1st round selection by KC); Royals have scored only 20 runs in his 7 starts (nice support, boys) but scored 7, 13, and 9 in their past 3 (yes...it was the Rockies staff, and @Coors, but it will give their offense optimism nonetheless.
KC at home and D'Backs with several bats hurting (Hillenbrand & Finley day-to-day; Dellucci & Counsell on DL)
D'B closer Mantei out, and BP otherwise unstable due to constant starter injuries
D'Backs and/or Dessens are getting too much credit from the linesmakers, in my opinion.
Adding:
Royals -128
1.28/1

No more foolin' ... need sleep or will be even less non-incoherent.

Good Fortune To All

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... win or lose it ...
Hold your head up ... hold your head high