Tuesday August 14th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday August 14th 2007

yesterday: 2-2 -2.61
August: 79-52 +37.73
ml 36-23 +13.87
rl 5-1 +4.69
totals 18-11 +5.18
parlays 20-17 +13.99
system picks 1-2 Monday; 12-9 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 Monday; 24-15 in August (61.5%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Fla 57% (-133)-1
mets 63 (-128)+6
Wash 53 (+105)+4
Atl 77 (-232)+7 RL 63 (-111)+10
Cubs 52 (-141)-7 cin 48 (+133)+5
Mil 64 (-130)+7
col 54 (+107)+5
Lad 51 (-143)-8 hou 49 (+135)+6
Nyy 66 (-164)+3 RL 52 (+116)+5
Clev 53 (-143)-6 det 47 (+135)+4
tb 61 (+131)+17
Tor 67 (-159)+5 RL 52 (+136)+9
Tex 52 (-135)-6 kc 48 (+127)+3
Oak 58 (-120)+3
min 58 (+100)+8

system totals

cin@Cubs un8? 66% (N/A)
balt@Nyy ov10.5 66 (-120)+11
det@Clev ov9 69 (-105)+17


I was due to for a losing day. I'm very happy with the results, actually, after starting 0-2.
What can I say about the Jays call?...they smoke against lefties but looked like crap Monday?both at the plate (swing-and-a-miss-Big Hurt) and in the field (couple of key errors); according to Toronto's Sportsnetwork, the Jays haven't won back-to-back road games for 7 weeks now, AND they've now got the greatest home-road differential in MLB, at 13 games over .500 at home and 13 games under .500 on the road (kind of surprises me that the Jays is highest?I'd think maybe the Rockies or somebody else would have that mark). Tigers word?Gaudin had been crap?for weeks?and I figured that the Tigers would score more than a lonely two; A's hitting well these days, too. Enough of the past?

Braves, Brewers, D'Rays and Jays are system picks for Tuesday. Braves are too expensive but this looks like a safe runline play. Brewers are just barely a system pick?kinda need Wells to have an off night and Capuano to be sharp to take that one; Cards OPS vs L HAS creeped up over .700 (.727) after being below that mark for most of the season?still not very high and the Brewers are 22-12 at home to righties (64.7% winners) while the Cards are 12-10 on the road to lefties (54.5% winners?much higher than it was about a month ago). D'Rays clearly look best; D'Rays OPS vs L is .805 while Bosox OPS vs L is .802; 7-day OPS of .774 for the 'Rays and .759 for Boston (ESPN?won't include Monday); D'Rays with the much better SP going, here, as Lester's rating has dropped (quite low) while I currently have Kazmir rated higher than at any other point in the season?he's on fire, lately. Jays look scary, with the high price and facing a pretty hot Angels team; still, they're 13-4 at home to lefties (76%) and have the Doc going.

Mets are very close to being a system pick?some value there. Twins would have been a system pick with a win Monday; I'm still trying them at the current even-money lines; Garza looks fabulous while Ramirez has looked like crap?still need the hapless Twins sticks to produce some?I think they lost 1-0 in Garza's last start.

Slim picken's on the totals. I'll either take a pass, there, or maybe try the Yankees over 5.5 runs. Jeez?just checked out the lines?Yankees over 5.5 at -150!...linesmakers are starting to catch up. Too bad. At least they've left us some value elsewhere.

Will post picks before dawn.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I can't believe that I'm doing this well for August with system picks at only 12-9. They've been at over 60% each month, so far, so I'm kinda surprised they're this close to .500...got a chance to improve on that today.

I guess I must be getting enouch value with the other picks; I still rarely play a game if the system reports negative value. Played the Padres with Peavy's last start, and got away with it...only recent one I can think of.

Totals are helping--finally. Both totals and myself took a beating Aug.1st-3rd, so the past 10 days have been Super-Gold!:weed: (hard to get across a George Carlin joke-reference in here)

Without further ado...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
some possible TEAM TOTALS
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

Pirates un4 -130 (-12)might be tired after double-header Monday, but they get to stay home; Orlando has a 1.29 era in 3 career starts vs Pitt--none from '07; looks good to parlay as 5 will be tough for Pitt

sf un4 -135 (-14)might be even tastier than Pitt under; Braves runline is cheaper and looks pretty safe to me; Smoltzy's career numbers vs SF not so hot (12-15, 4.11 era) but he shut them down good in their only '07 meeting (got the W in a 4-2 road win July 23rd); Giants 7-day OPS of .756...much higher than it was a couple days ago
Braves ov5 -130 (+7)if you think they can score 6 then try the cheaper runline...4or5 could very well be enough for a runline victory; impossible to say what Atchison does--he's been pretty good in limited action over the past 3 seasons; Giants bullpen hasn't looked to hot in August, after a solid July, and Atchison probably needs some serious backup here; Braves 7-day OPS at .829

Padres un3.5 +105 (-8)maybe at a 4...3.5 is too low as Padres hit lefties much better than they hit righties

Nyy ov5.5 -150 (+18)once again the best-looking over, but oddsmakers are catching up a little with the heavy juice--I've been playing the Yanks overs at -110 to -125, lately...never this high; Yanks got 4 in the first 2 innings off Cabrera on July 29th, in Baltimore, before he shut them down for the next 4 innings; Daniel has pitched 2 outstanding games over his past 4 starts (both against the D'Rays, mind you), one at home and one on the road; converting my +18 to a %, as best as I can, I get Yanks over 5.5 at 63%...that's only a +3 value indicator at the -150.

Try a further breakdown, here...

NYY score...........probability(%)
0.........................1
1.........................2
2.........................4
3.........................8
4........................10
5........................15
6........................24
7........................16
8+......................20


Fooled around for several minutes trying to see if I can get some reasonable guesses in here.
Giving a low probability for them to be shut down, which should make sense, and concentrating the likely total in the 5-7 range, which the linesmakers agree with.
These numbers give me a 60% chance to go over the 5.5.
Pretty decent probability but a -150 line makes it an even proposition.

Moving on...

Wasn't going to include
tigers ov4.5 +120 (+5)
as it's below the +/- 7 requirement for my listing them,
but they've got a shot to break this number, I would think.
Tigers 7-day OPS at .876 (won't include Monday where they were shut down after the 1st).
Sabathia 12-8, 4.47 era vs Tigers.
He's 9-4, 3.07 at Jacob's this year.
He's faced Detroit 3 times this year; he's 2-1 but with a 7.36 era (Tigers hitting .333 of him with 5 HR's in only 18.1 IP).
Tigers over this figure might be better than the Tigers moneyline.
Have the Indians at only +4, as they've been slumping at the plate.
Might have Travis Hafner back in the lineup, so
OVER the 9 might be best the way that Bonderman has stunk the joint up for 4 consecutive starts (2 home, 2 road, and not the most exceptional opponent's, save the Angels (also White Sox, twice, and D'Rays)); Jeremy is 7-9, 6.07 era vs Indians including 1 good start vs way back at the start of June (only '07 meeting) and 6-5, 5.08 era at Jacob's Field.

d'rays ov5 +120 (+12)D'Rays 7-day OPS at a decent .774 but that won't include their shutdown from Monday; OPS over .800 vs lefties, though, and Lester has looked like shiite; moneyline for me
--have Bosox at -6, if you're interested...
under5.5 sounds real tasty, but not the -155 price tag

Jays ov5 +110 (+11)7-day OPS of .780, but I'm guessiing that's down a bit after Monday's dissappointment; Jays OPS vs L at .838 (before Monday...2nd in MLB behind only the Tigers) and they're 13-4 at home to lefties (76% winners)...might help, a touch, that they just had the vs-lefty lineup going yesterday...probably balances out with the Angels benefit of having the day off; Saunders has chucked 2 good career games vs the Jays (none '07, none at the Rogers Centre)...I'd say he's only been mediocre over his past 3 starts, but the Angels have won 8 consecutive starts for him (he's 6-0 in 9; 3-0 in 3 on the road with a 2.21 era...maybe I should be considering the under for this game); I'm on the hefty moneyline (with a little regret) so I don't think I want to put any more on this contest

M's un4.5 -115 (-10)7-day Seattle OPS of .956 makes this a bit risky; still, through 6 starts and 1 RP Garza has that 1.70 era...opponent's have SCORED MORE THAN 2 RUNS in only 1 of Garza's 6 '07 starts (was the Angels, and he only allowed 3 earned over 5.1 IP; other opponent's included the Tigers and the Indians (twice), so it's not like all of his victim's have been soft); any play on Garza looks very attractive, currently; moneyline, for me, but this call looks good...just checked out the umpire--Tim Welke...like his brother Bill (they put the last clean shirt...), he's a decent UNDER-ump (always high K%), making this play look even better; M's OPS vs L .800 but vs R only .743
--pass on the game under, even with Welke, as Horacio has been trash and the Twins bats might explode like the last time it happened for them, about 6 days ago against (another) lefty Odalis Perez (with Santana starting...when they didn't really need the 11 they scored)


That's the big ones.
I dunno...I think I'm happy with the money-and-runlines that I've nabbed.
Might leave it at that.

Of course...an IF play sure sounds tempting...they've been pretty hot for me.
Need to come with a good #1,2, and 3 for that.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

Braves -1.5 -111 2.22/2
Brewers -130 1.95/1.5
devil rays +131 4/5.24
Blue Jays -159 3.18/2

other picks

mets -128 2.56/2
Yankees -1.5 +116 1/1.16
twins +100 3/3

2-teamer
--mets ml
--Braves ml
+147
0.68/1

2-teamer
--Pirates under 4
--Yankees ml
+178
0.56/1

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Yankees ml
+130
1.15/1.5

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Blue Jays ml
+133
1.12/1.5

2-teamer
--giants under 4
--Brewers ml
+200
0.5/1

2-teamer
--Yankees ml
--Blue Jays ml
+152
0.65/1

15-team IF bet (covering all games?it's an AS-IF bet)
1.Nyy -1.5 0.5/0.55
2.twins 0.5/0.5
3.tigers 0.5/0.68
4.Mets 0.67/0.5
5.Jays -1.5 0.7/0.88
6.Marlins 1.1/0.82
7.Braves -1.5 0.9/0.75
8.d'rays 1.2/1.5
9.Brewers -1.5 0.8/1.2
10.royals 1.2/1.5
11.Nationals 1.08/1.03
12.reds 2/2.6
13.rockies 2.1/2
14.astros 2/2.5
15.A's -1.5 2/3.3
0.5 to win max.20.3

14-team IF bet
1.det@Clev ov9 0.66/0.6
2.Braves -1.5 0.6/0.5
3.d'rays 0.6/0.75
4.twins 0.85/0.85
5.Brewers 0.7/0.5
6.Yankees -1.5 1/1.1
7.Jays 1.65/1
8.A's 1/0.8
9.rockies 1.05/1
10.reds 1/1.3
11.Marlins 1.35/1
12.mets 2.7/2
13.royals 1.2/1.5
14.astros 1.2/1.5
0.66 to win max.14.4

13-team IF bet
1.M's under 4.5 0.8/0.7
2.Yankees -1.5 0.5/0.55
3.Braves -1.5 0.6/0.5
4.Jays -1.5 0.6/0.75
5.Brewers 1.4/1
6.tigers 1/1.35
7.royals 0.6/0.75
8.rockies 1.05/1
9.d'rays 1.2/1.5
10.reds 2/2.6
11.mets 2.7/2
12.Marlins 2.7/2
13.Nationals 2.1/2
0.8 to win max.16.7


Pushing my luck a bit, maybe, but hey?isn't that what good runs are for?
I figure I'm still in all right shape despite yesterday?bagged the final two plays, after all, to totally salvage what was looking quite grim.
Braves, Jays and Yankees see my biggest risks, overall, and that pleases me as they're the 3 highest calls for my post.
D'Rays and Twins are close behind in 4th and 5th place.
Mets and Brewers pulling up the rear, but still would be worthwhile hits.
With this much side action, today, who needs totals?
I've actually got every side covered if you count my IF plays; includes 8 doggies.
Only have the nerve to try 2 of the doggies straight up, but 3 of my 7 straights are even money or better.
Hope it works.

GL

P.S.
I'll try to have Wednesday's numbers up sometime into the night action.
Lots of high probabilities expected.
The following probably won't have decent lines, but if they do I'd hop on the Mets (Maine-Morris), Braves (Hudson-Ortiz), Cubs (Lilly-Dumatrait), Brewers (Gallardo-Pineiro), Dodgers (Penny-Jennings), Bosox (Dice-K-Sonnanstine), and/or Blue Jays (Marcum-Moseley). All will be pretty high calls, regardless of tonight's outomes.
Padres will look good, too, with Young starting at Petco, but not as high as these others I've mentioned and the Padres line for tomorrow will likely be too close to -200 for any value.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I just finished doing a base 'cap for Thursday.
Gives me a good look at the series prices.

I'm on the Jays at -130 as I think they can take the first two, with Halladay and Marcum, before facing Escobar in the finale.

Playing the Royals at +130 as I think they've got a good shot Wednesday, with Meche, and a good shot on Thursday with the smokin' Nunez. Might even take today's...I'm kinda hoping for that, now.

A's too pricey -155 but will have calls all games.
correction: Buehrle-Blanton will be a low 50's Chsox call, tomorrow

D'Backs +110 looks okay, but I don't really care for the D'Backs, and the Marlins O could come back to life at home.

Braves -300 I can't afford. Pass.

I'll have about a 53% call on the Reds in the closer (Livingston-Marquis), so would just need to take one of Dumatrait-Lilly or today's Harang-Zambrano (which is more likely, in my opinion).
Reds at +200.
WTF.
Cubs are slip-slidin' away. 7-day OPS at .694, greatly due to key bats being out, most notably Soriano and A.Ramirez (the latter might be back today) but also including Cliff Floyd and Angel Pagan.
I haven't played the Reds today, at +133 currently (except buried on IF plays), but I think I'll try this series play at +200 and hope for the best...I would play Cubs tomorrow if the price was right (Lilly-Dumatrait) but I'd be surprised if it was better than -150, at which point I wouldn't play it anyway.

Rockies at +130 is also tempting.
I've got them 54% today and will have them possibly at a 60 for Thursday's closer (Cook vs Ledezma OR Germano)...in between it's Jimenez-Young so that one looks next to impossible, perhaps, but the series play looks good.
Rockies are down to +102, anyway (I didn't bite earlier at +107, but why would I play that when I think the Rock's have an even better chance to take the closer, with a fairly hot Cook, and maybe even a 40% chance to steal one vs Young).
+130...I'm giving this one a shot, too.

I'm already playing the Brewers today, and would play any decent line for tomorrow (Gallardo-Pineiro), so the -160 price tag for the series doesn't look so hot. I like the Cards in the closer, anyway (Wainwright-Bush), so I'll be looking for a decent close-to-even-money(or even better) line for the visitor on Thursday.

Along with today's 63, Mets will have a call low 60's up to 65 (with a nice win today) for tomorrow (Maine-Morris), and then in the low 50's for Thursday's Lawrence-Armas. I don't know if that means that there's value on the Mets series at -165 or not. I'm already playing them today, much cheaper, and hope to play them tomorrow, at a reasonable line...again cheaper than a -165. Pass.

Phillies big Thursday with Hamels over Hanrahan (who hasn't actually looked too bad...under, maybe), and tomorrow will have Philly mid-50's (Kendrick-Redding). Seeing as I've got a call for the Nationals today, the -155 price tag on the Phillies series doesn't look so hot--first I'm calling them to lose and then they face a couple of pretty hot righties...on the road (Philly 19-17 on the road to righties)...in a pitcher's park...kinda makes the Nats tempting, but I'll stick with the 4 I've got (3 of them doggies) and hope for the best. I might try Phillies game Thursday, anyway (as if there will be a decent line with Hamels, aye?)

Playing these series (14th-16th):
(in riskatalogical order)

Blue Jays -130
rockies +130
royals +120
reds +200


I should think about sleep.
I want to tackle Wednesday's lines fairly early.

See you later.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm almost sleeping..

CORRECTION:

just so I don't look stupid (but not wanting to edit my PLAYS post)...

I actually have most risked on Jays and Braves (close to 5u), followed by D'Rays at 4, THEN the Yankees at about 3.8 and Twins the same if you count my M's under (IF) in that.
Enough on the Yankees, regardless, with a shaky Karstens starting.

Really need at least 3 of those 5 to make headway today.

Yankees loss wouldn't kill me.
Sure wouldn't break my heart, either.

See you in the aftermath.

:SIB

 

[wesis69]

Great explanations yet again. Thank you EXTRAPOLATER:toast:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

with the Giants pitching change I'm adding the following:

Braves -1.5 -119 1.19/1

2-day-2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Braves ml (Wed)
+100
1/1

2-day-2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Bosox ml (Wed)
-104
1.04/1


As early as I could get it up...

See you in a bit.

GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

adding one more...

reds@Cubs un8 -121 1/0.83


GL

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Frank Thomas strikeout number 76 in the books.

Good shot for 100 on the year.

Big Hurtin'

:SIB