Tuesday August 28th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday August 28th 2007

yesterday: 7-2 +10.8
August: 186-155 +83.29
ml 82-49 +55.26
rl 9-10 -0.46
totals 41-29 +9.47
parlays 54-67 +19.02
system picks 3-0 yesterday; 48-23 in August (67.6%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-0-1 yesterday; 53-36 in August (59.5%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

atl 58% (-130)+1 (Carlyle-Vanden Hurk)
mets 55 (-120)even
(1)Pitt 65 (-155)+4
Cubs 51 (-152)-10 mil 49 (+144)+8
stl 55 (+104)+5
ariz 66 (-146)+6 RL 51 (+114)+4
Lad 65 (-165)+2
Sf 65 (-146)+5
Balt 64 (-152)+3
Nyy 55 (-114)+1
Clev 74 (-151)+13 RL 60 (+135)+17
Kc 54 (+109)+6
Tex 64 (-155)+3
laa 55 (+106)+6
Oak 52 (-115)-2
(2)cin 56 (+107)+7

system totals

ariz@Sd un7 75% (+102)+25 --ump Cederstrom is even at best (an over-lean in years past)
tb@Balt ov10 66 (-105)+14 --ump N/A


One-day losing streak is over. It was a bad one, though (Sunday), and my dreams of a +100 unit month pretty well went down the drain because of it. Both the A's and Mets (key system picks Sunday) had leads but let them slip away, while I just caught Bedard on an off night?that latter play was the only true stupid one as laying that kinda price on the pitiful Orioles IS(was) stupid. Enough about the sorry Sunday I had?Monday I went 3-1 on the moneyline, 1-1 on the runline, and 2-0-1 on totals. Happy to be back on the plus side of life. Let's finish this month strong, shall we?...

D'Backs, Giants and Indians are system picks for Tuesday. Indians look best while I also like Webb to pick up a W against the Padres. Giants have a real hot Cain going against a team he's owned this year (1.37 era in 3 meetings) while I don't have much faith in Morales?G'Men's sticks are always a concern and getting only 4 off of of Fogg and friends doesn't impress me.

I'm already on that Petco game under but I'm not sure about the other system call.
Close to 10 pm Monday and corksuckin' MLB.com had B.Welke listed at 1st base at Petco (different crew entirely) and that's when I made the under play...I don't like it nearly as much with Cederstrom and I'm considering buying it back...or at least some of it. Piss me off.

Did some more fvcking around by changing my 51% call on the Brewers to a 51% call on the Cubs, in case you noticed my original post. Game was basically a system coin-flip so I chose the Brewers, but two things have changed my mind. First, I've heard that Soriano might be back for this game and that would help their offense out tremendously. Second, I took a closer look at Hill's work vs the Brew-Crew (in 3) this season and, despite the 5.40 era (greatly due to 4 HR allowed over 16.2), his numbers aren't that bad, including a 1.02 whip and .190 baa, also 16 K over the 16.2 IP. Hill is also the hotter starter, currently, so I'll give the small nod to the Cubs. With lines as they are there is still only value on the Brewers but this game appears up for grabs so I don't know if I'll waste my time (or more importantly, money) on it.

I'll probably have more to say later.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Just noticed that my system likes 5 (make that 4) dogs today.
Not a bad result for 16 games.
Be interesting to see how they do:

brewers (was)51%...now 49%
cardinals 55%
Royals 54%
angels 55%
(2)reds 56%

4 visitors.
Home squad is facing a suddenly-hot offense, too.
All are fairly low calls so they'll all be tough games.
Maholm has been pretty good, lately, but is 0-2 with a 6.75 era vs Reds in 3 meetings this season.
Angels Santana is 2-0 with a 1.29 era vs the M's this season while M's Weaver is 0-2 with an 11.57 era vs the Angels this season; game would be close to a system coin-toss if not for those factors.
Looper has good career numbers vs the Astros while Williams has poor numbers vs the Cards; again the difference in the call as 'Stros Woody is currently a bit sharper than Loopy; real tough game to call but Astros OPS last 7 days is down at .717 while the Cards come in at .789 over the past week; Cards a monster bullpen edge, too.
Royals always have a chance with Bannister starting; he has good numbers vs the Tigers while Robertson has poor numbers vs the Royals including getting pounded once this season; a decent game by Nate and this one likely plays under...this isn't Mussina the Tigres will be facing, after all.
Last but not least we've got the Brewers, who come in with a 7-day OPS of only .742 to the Cubs at an even worse .683...really missing Soriano, I believe. That Brewers (sorta) low OPS is due to crappy work against RIGHTIES (hitting .220 last 10) but they still kill lefties (hitting .393 last 10 vs lefties, SP's were Lowry and Doug Davis, no slouches, really).
I just read that Soriano may actually be back for this game; makes the visitor a little less attractive.
I dunno about this one.
Will be tough.
Brewers don't travel very well (17-8 at home to lefties but only 8-11 on the road vs L).
Over might be worthwhile, whenever that finally opens.

Gonna do team totals next, I think.
Haven't even checked out what that Padres under costs.
Already 'capped Wednesday...might do Thursday, tonight, though I prefer to do them only a day or two in advance so that I'm working with current currents.

Out damn spot!

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

mets ov5 -140 (+9)Eaton was total trash before the DL but is 2-0, 2.77 era vs Mets this year; moneyline is cheaper and safer, though I don't know how much "safer"; Mets 7-day OPS down to .709 (was over .800 in recent days)

(1)Pitt ov5 +120 (+7)hope so...I'm a moneyline player so passarama here; Pitt 7-day OPS .821

ariz un4 -125 (-9)Germano has good numbers vs the D'Backs but I'm hoping that changes here as I'm backing 'Zona...obviously no way I can touch this; D'Backs 7-day OPS .646 (ouch)
Sd un3 -115 (-26)anytime I get these numbers at +/-20 I think it's worth a shot (rarely happens); Webb has good numbers vs the Padres, to boot; Padres 7-day OPS .990 which won't include Monday, where it certainly didn't show, and their OPS at home is .676
---ump Cederstrom will HURT, not help, any unders today at Petco

nats un4 -150 (-9)Nats 7-day OPS of .776 is pretty high for them, and they did just get 4 off of Lowe, so I don't think I can touch this...certainly not at the price

col un4 -130 (-12)in 3 meetings with the Rocks this season Cain has a 1.37 era PLUS he's pretty hot currently; Rocks only got one off of a finesse-style lefty and now have to turn around a face a hard-throwing righty...Rockies OPS on the road about 130 points lower than when at home; this actually might be a bit better than the moneyline (bit cheaper, too) as I can't stand the G'mensticks...always the biggest concern when backing them; might sneak this one in; Rockies 7-day OPS .788...that WON'T include Monday's poor production but WILL include mostly games from Coors

Orioles ov5.5 +110 (+12)facing total fade material here but O's 7-day OPS is only .724; I'll likely stick with my small moneyline play, here, unless I try the game total over, but Cabrera is 3-0 with a 3.15 era vs the D'Rays this season so maybe he has their number...kinda need something from the D'Rays to go over the 10 as I doubt that the O's score more than 5 or 6 the way they're going lately; ugly game

twins un4.5 -115 (-8)Westbrook has good numbers vs the Twinkies including one nice game in '07; Twins pretty hot offensively (7-day OPS .840) AND this is hitter-friendly Jacob's Field so I think I'll tackle this game another way
Clev ov5 -110 (+10)the better option of the two, I think (Bonser has a 7.56 era in 2 meetings with the Indians, the worst of which was earlier this season AT Jacob's) but ump Wally Bell is a bit of an under-ump so I again will pass for other options...maybe (might sneak it in); Injuns 7-day OPS .757
--OVER-call yesterday survived (unknown to me or I don't touch it) Hirschbeck umping, Indians totalling 8, so Bell might not be enough to save any unders today...don't think I'd touch any, anyways

(enough rambling, Mike, get this over with already)

Tex ov5.5 -115 (+10)Floyd bordering on being fade material; Rangers 7-day OPS .849


I'm done.

 

[rubiconed]

Nice Job Yesterday !!! Thanks !!! :SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PICKS

system picks

d'backs -146 4.38/3
Giants -146 2.92/2
Indians -151 6.04/4

other picks

mets -120 1.2/1
(1)Pirates -155 2.32/1.5
Dodgers -165 1.65/1
Orioles -150 1.2/0.8
Royals +109 1/1.09
Rangers -155 2.32/1.5

totals

ariz@Sd un7 +102 2/2.04

2-teamer (to pump up the jam on that system total)
--Dodgers ml
--tb-Balt ov10
+207
0.5/1.03

12-team IF bet
1.cardinals 0.72/0.66
2.Padres under3 0.57/0.5
3.brewers 0.5/0.66
4.bost-Nyy un9.5 0.77/0.7
5.indians -1.5 0.51/0.67
6.Orioles -1.5 0.8/1
7.mets 1/0.8
8.Dodgers -1.5 0.8/1.04
9.Rangers -1.5 1/1.3
10.det-Kc un9.5 1.25/1
11.angels 1.07/1.07
12.(2)reds 1.36/1.3
0.72 to win max.10.7

11-team IF bet
1.Indians -1.5 0.5/0.65
2.d'backs -1.5 0.5/0.53
3.(2)reds 0.84/0.8
4.det-Kc un9.5 0.87/0.7
5.Giants -1.5 0.67/0.95
6.cards 1.1/1
7.angels 1.37/1.37
8.Rangers -1.5 1/1.3
9.mets 1.25/1
10.(1)Pirates -1.5 1/1.35
11.Yankees 2/1.6
0.5 to win max.11.25

13-team IF bet
1.det-Kc un9.5 0.69/0.6
2.Indians over5 0.55/0.5
3.angels 0.5/0.5
4.tb-Balt ov10 0.55/0.5
5.(1)Pirates 0.93/0.6
6.Giants 0.93/0.6
7.Rangers 1.2/0.75
8.mets 1/0.8
9.cards 1.1/1
10.d'backs 1.6/1
11.Dodgers 1.65/1
12.(2)reds 1.05/1
13.Yankees 2/1.6
0.69 to win max.10.45

12-team IF bet
1.angels 0.75/0.75
2.Indians -1.5 0.5/0.65
3.mets 0.75/0.6
4.d'backs -1.5 0.5/0.53
5.Rangers 0.96/0.6
6.cards 1.1/1
7.Giants 1.08/0.7
8.(2)reds 1.05/1
9.Dodgers 1.65/1
10.(1)Pirates 1.55/1
11.brewers 1.32/1.75
12.blue jays 1.57/1.5
0.75 to win max.11.08

13-team IF bet
1.(2)reds 0.76/0.73
2.Dodgers -1.5 0.5/0.65
3.cardinals 0.55/0.5
4.Royals 0.52/0.5
5.Giants 1.08/0.7
6.d'backs 0.8/0.5
7.Indians 0.8/0.5
8.(1)Pirates 1.24/0.8
9.mets 1.25/1
10.Orioles 1.6/1
11.Rangers 1.6/1
12.angels 1.32/1.32
13.blue jays 1.05/1
0.76 to win max.10.2


System sides are 41-15 over the past 4 days (73.2%), bringing stats for the month to 229-141, or 61.89% winners for ALL games; that recent great accuracy has me trying sides on 12 of the 16 games available; it's actually been a full 8 days since the last time that system sides were under .500 (4-7 on the 20th). I still managed to get killed on Sunday, despite system sides going 9-6 that day (Sunday saw misses on a 68, a 69, and a 71). Yesterday was much more encouraging with all 3 high calls coming in (a 63, a 73, and a 74). I've got 7 calls today at 64% or higher and I'm playing the works.
I'm not in the habit of buying back bets, so I don't know what to do about that Petco total; I made the play after MLB.com reported B.Welke as the 1st base ump, meaning he would be working the game; turns out they funked up, somehow (unless I did), and it turns out that Cederstrom will be behind home plate?he's got decent under-numbers this season but has been an over-ump in years past?don't know what to do?might buy it back, late, if the line moves so that I'm not losing any juice?DID get it cheap, at least.

I'm about to have a quick go at Thursday?only 10 games to 'cap so should take about half an hour, maybe. I have done Wednesday, though, so here's a quick word on the big calls: Mets (Perez-Moyer) will be in the low 60's, despite the fact that Jamie has good numbers vs the Mets while Ollie has poor numbers vs the Phillies (still have Perez ranked higher for this contest, with a tiny edge to the Metsticks due to them facing a lefty). Braves (Smoltz-Willis) will also be in the low 60's?probably be an expensive line as Marlins can't win to save their lives, right now. Astros (Oswalt-K.Wells) will be low-to-mid 60's as Wells has poor numbers vs the 'Stros while Oswalt has good numbers vs the Cards; Oswalt says he feels "great", but his recent injury still puts an X-factor into this game; anything over -140, or so, and I've gotta pass because of it. Cubs will be mid-to-high 60's though not because of Zambrano's recent work?that part should concern anybody willing to back him currently?but because of Vargas' poor work vs Cubs and lousy work in general; line will be -160 or more and Carlos is too risky at that kinda price, right now. Jays (Halladay-DiNardo) will be low 60's as Jays best chance is against a lefty this season while Doc is still the man in T.O.; neither starter has good numbers vs opponent but Roy hasn't faced the A's yet this season; I might try the Jays up to -140, here, and I can't imagine it being more expensive than that. I'm going to have a huge number for the D'Rays tomorrow (Shields-Trachsel) as Trachsel has horrible numbers vs the 'Rays, including from this season, while Shields has looked very strong lately; D'Rays hitting a little better than O's, too, right now, but I'll be anxious to see the D'Rays put up at least a few runs today in Baltimore before I lay too much coin on them?D'Rays OPS was 60 points higher at home than on the road last season but is about 40 points higher on the road this season; anything up to -120 and this will likely be one of my top plays tomorrow. That's it for 60+. On totals, I'm looking at likely overs for Philadelphia and Texas (Garland-Loe), and likely unders for Dodgerland (S.Hill-Penny?VERY under), San Fran (Francis-Lowry), San Diego (as usual?Owings-Maddux), and Cleveland (Santana-Sabathia).

Them's the word until tomorrow.
May we have a good today.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

new Braves line

new Braves line

this one should make sense, if you checked out that Carlyle line...

braves 68% (-170)+5 RL 54 (-109)+1


Smoltz threw 103 in his last and will be going on only 3 days rest; that's factored in by counting a little more towards the pen and a little lower a call on Smoltz for the game himself.
Still have Braves with the high probability as Vanden Hurt kinda sucks.
I'd like the Braves over 5.5 at -120 (+16 by system numbers), but Doug Eddings will be ump'ing this game so I won't touch ANY kind of overs.
Game total under 10 is tempting simply because of Eddings; you never know; VandenSlap was actually pretty good in his last, against St.Louis, plus he threw a solid game against the Braves in their second encounter of '07, back in June, plus the Marlins pen has been stellar lately (1.93 era last 3...3.51 on the year ain't too bad, too).
Think I'll try me some Braves and some under.
Marlins under 4 is a thought. System call is only -2, though.
I don't know...maybe playing an under with the Bravesticks facing Vanden Sorriage is a dumb proposition.

Need to consider my option...and quickly.

:00x32

Need some sleep.

:bed:

:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

what I thought was love that must have been lust

what I thought was love that must have been lust

O.K...VandenPlus' K/BB is 16/7 (2.29) over his last 3 starts, despite the 5+ era over that time. His control has been decent, though, judging by this stat, so I think that he might have a bit of success with Eddings calling balls and strikes for him (K% over 65...highest in MLB...almost a full % higher than big-time-under-ump Hirschbeck). I think that he can keep the game respectable but has slim chance to win it.

Smoltz, as a seasoned veteren, should do better on 3 days rest than most would. He's been pretty solid lately, including a 2.86 era and 1.05 whip over his past 3 starts. Opponent's have scored 4 or less vSmoltzstarts in 4 straight (facing Mets when they were hot at the plate, Giants when they were swinging, D'Backs when they were winning, and Cards in his last (club 3-1 over that time, losing just at Shea (Mets))()), and 6 out of 7 (4 or less).
Braves pen should help out fine as the season era of 3.33 has only been helped out by the past 3 games (2.01).
Wickman out of the closer's role is a blessing to any Braves backer.
Marlins hitting .254 last 10 vs R (.264 season; more importantly):
Marlins OPS vs R .778
Braves vs R .786
Marlins last 7 days .757
Braves last 7 days .800 (hitting .264 last 10 vs R and .279 for the season--.293 on the road vs R).

I think Eddings keeps this tighter than yesterday's but I can't see the Fish outscoring the Braves today.

predicted final score: braves 5-3

Gonna put my money where my fingers is:

ad+ding:

braves -165 3.3/2

atl@Fla un10 -116 1/0.86

2-teamer
--Marlins under4
--d'backs ml
+212
0.5/1.06


That'll be a wrap.
Action galore.
May you be as right as I be might.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I still might buy back at least SOME of that Petco under...I don't think it's wise with Cederstrom going.
I've got time.
Lines already moved in my favour to do so, but more under money will come in (due to Webb) so I could probably wait until just before gametime and might even secure a tiny plus if the line moves enough.

Frig...they're opening Wednesday's lines...

guess sleep will have to wait.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

early word on Wednesday's lines

early word on Wednesday's lines

Judging by the first lines I've seen (20-centers),
Mets (Perez-Moyer) will be a system a system pick as the call will be near 60% and the line will be near even-money.
D'Rays will also be a pick as I'll have the call in the mid-60's and the line, as I expected, will be near -120ish; this play looks solid, as does the D'Rays series price, at better than even money, as the 'Rays will have an excellent chance to take the closer as well (Kazmir-Guthrie).
All the other lines I'm seeing provide either negligable value or negative value.

Looks like I'll have 2 system totals:
Wash-Lad under 7.5 (Hill-Penny); ump Scott is even, years past, but has decent under stats this season at 11-15 with his K% over 63; Hill has been unbelievable and Penny is Penny so I really like this one, despite the low total; Nats price is tempting, too, though system will call the Dodgers somewhere in the mid-50%s (meaning totally no value on the Dodgers line but some on the doggie).
Chisox-Tex (Garland-Loe) over the 10.5 will be the other call, but I'll hold off judgement on that one until umpire info becomes available; both SP's do have pretty bad numbers vs opponent and neither is particularly hot right now. Playing a Chisox total over might be risky, the way they're currently (not) hitting, but this is Ameriquest and they won't be facing much of a stud in Loe.

I should have the numbers up between 10-12 (if my alarm wakes me).
Let's kick ass today, first.
'K?
Promise?

Let's do this thing!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:bed: