Tuesday July 17th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday July 17th 2007

yesterday: 5-4 +3.36
July: 65-63 +0.71
ml 37-28 +4.22
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 15-17 -4.41
parlays 11-14 +1.4
system picks 1-0 Monday; 18-8 in July (69%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-2-1 on Monday; 18-20 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

stl 56% (+101)+6
Pitt 53 (-101)+2
Wash 59 (+121)+13
Atl 54 (-129)-3
Mil 54 (-145)-6
Cubs 56 (-131)-1
Sd 51 (-146)-9 mets 49 (+138)+6
Lad 61 (-133)+3
Clev 61 (-146)+1
Bost 65 (Wakefield-Thomson)
Bost 67 (Wakefield-Nunez)
Nyy 52 (-125)-4
Tb 57 (Shields-Santana)
Tb 53 (Shields-Colon)
det 56 (+105)+7
Seat 66 (-156)+5
Oak 59 (-157)-3

system totals

ariz@Mil ov9 68% (-105)+16 --ump Wendelstedt is even
mets@Sd un7.5 82 (-118)+27 --ump Fairchild is even
cws@Clev ov9.5 65 (-109)+12 --Tschida has always been a bit of an under-ump but is 9-9 on the total this season with a very low K% (under 61.5%)
tor@Nyy ov9 70 (-105)+18 --ump Culbreth is even
det@Min ov9.5 65 (-105)+13 --ump N/A
balt@Seat un8 67 (+100)+17 --ump Cooper is even


Monday had some dissappointments, despite the plus.
At 6-4 in the 9th the Jays get a lead-off triple?looks good for the over 10, right? Thomas and Glaus strikeout before Overbay grounds out; that one hurt. At least I took the 10, instead of the 10.5. Went 3-0 on the moneyline to create a Monday plus, but I'm a loser on all 4 IF's; Astros lose by a run, Brewers fall one run short of the team total, stl@Fla falls a run short of the over, and the Mets apparently (still) can't hit. 2-0 on parlays but I'm counting my IF's there, so my parlay plus has slipped dangerously close to nothing. I feel quite lucky to have turned a plus Monday. HEY!!!...I'm up now for July. Lookin' for a streak?

For Tuesday, Nationals, Mets, Tigers and M's all appear to have some value. Nats are a system pick for, I think, the first time this season. Mets will have the edge at offense, on paper, but San Diego is lookin' decent lately so this side looks like a coin-toss (51% will do that). I'll likely try the under, there, seeing as the opener totalled only 6 with much weaker pitching. Tigers should end Garza's current scoreless streak; Twins not the best vs lefties (OPS .720 and they've won only 45% of their home games vs lefties) so I think that the Tigers will be in play for me here. M's is tough to play at the price, but hard to pass on with the call; I'll sneak them in on a parlay if I don't try them straight?under looks possible at Safeco, too.

Be back with more ramblings later.
Eventually some picks.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Nationals,Mariners)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Nationals 59% (+121)+13

argument for game:
--Nats OPS last 7 days at .800
--Astros OPS last 7 days .634
--Redding currently rated a few points higher than Sampson
--Nats edge in the bullpen
--Nats only 34% winners at home to righties, but Astros are only 36% winners away to righties (ASB)
--Nats .413 at home while Astros are .349 on the road (ASB)
--Nats took the opener

59 x 1.21 = 71.39
41 x -1.....= -41
-----------------------------
..................30.39%

Doesn't get much better than that.
Even if I'm OFF BY 10% there is still some value on this play.
I've touched the Nats few times this season, but this looks like a good spot for them.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Mariners 66% (-156)+5 (just barely a system pick)

argument for game:
--M's .745 OPS vs R
--O's .718 OPS vs R
--Orioles have some key bats out including Tejada and Mora
--Felix currently rated a few points higher than Guthrie
--M's a huge edge in the bullpen
--M's .643 at home while O's .404 on the road (ASB)

-156 is 64.1 cents on the dollar
66 x 0.641 = 42.306
34 x -1.......= -34
-------------------------------
...................8.306%


Not very high. Low risk is the appeal.

Nats with a 21.084/8.306%=
253% increase in ROI with just a 7/33%=
21% increase in risk.

Nats look like the better play.
I just wish they weren't the Nats, if yaknowhatimean.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
One more...

Tigers 56% (+105)+7

argument for game:
--Tigers .812 OPS vs R
--Twins .720 OPS vs L
--Tigers OPS last 7 days is .853
--edge is all sticks here, really

against:
--Garza currently rated 1 point higher than Robertson
--Twins large bullpen edge
--Twins OPS last 7 days is .885

56 x 1.05 = 58.8
44 x -1....= -44
----------------------------
..................14.8%

A fair bit higher than the M's play.
A 14.8-8.306=6.494 increase in ROI or
6.494/8.306%=
a 78% increase in ROI with a
10/34%=
29% increase in risk (for the Tigers).

Tigers look better than the M's, too.

Nats vs Tigers
--------------------
Nats 59% 30.39%
det 56% 14.8%

Obviously I don't even need to do a calculation here; Nats with the higher ROI AND the lower risk. At least the Tigers ARE the Tigers, and not the Nationals.

Might try the works.
Time will tell.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals

some possible team totals

(with relative system number; minus for unders, etc)

mets u3.5 -135 (-16)
Sd u4 -125 (-18)
Lad ov4.5 -105 (+7)
Clev ov5 -115 (+6)have smoked Garland before
jays ov4.5 +115 (+7)
Nyy ov4.5 -115 (+6)
det ov4.5 -110 (+8)
O's u4 -145 (-13)
tex u4.5 -155 (-8)too pricey


Those are the big ones today.
Tigers, Dodgers, and Indians over all look tempting; Tigers moneyline might be safer; Dodgers face a totally struggling Durbin, who's going to be sent down (to the minors) soon, I would think, plus they're producing lots lately, plus they'll get a few innings to hit against one of the crappier pens in MLB; Garland struggling a bit lately and Indians have hurt him before, including in a game back in April--Garland is 7-10, 5.90 era career vs Indians; Byrd has been decent lately but still owns a home era of 5.63; game total over and Indians over both look promising. All 3 of them might be better tackled another way (tigers ml, Indians rl, Dodgers ml).
O's probably don't get 5, vs Felix at Safeco.
Mets and Padres may both play under but I think I'll stick with the game total there...one team could reach 4 (or more) but I have no clue which that might be (I'd be suprised if EITHER team made a 5-spot, actually).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

phil@Lad

phil@Lad

system call is 58% over the 8.5 at Dodger Stadium.

Durbin has been crap, is the main reason.

Phillies likely get something off of Hendrickson for the 6 or 7 he works...at least 3 or 4 I would think (bullpen make take care of the 8th and 9th). I think the Dodgers likely outscore Philly whatever they total, so calling for 5 or 6; gives me a prediction range of 8-10 scores.
1 8 (und)
2 9's (ov)
1 10 (ov)

system call is only 58% but I'm predicting here a 75% chance of the over 8.5.
Let me check the ump here...one sec...

Great...the web site I need is down.
It's Brian Runge. Going by memory I think he's basically even, or maybe a slight under-lean.
flippin' shovers.corn

Dodgers busted the total by themselves Monday.
Phillies may settle in for some better AB's in game #2; no travel to recover from, getting a little more used to the surroundings, NOT having to face Brad Penny. Phillies have only won 33% (ASB) of their road games vs lefties, which bodes well for my LAD moneyline, but the Phils DO still have a decent OPS of .766 vs lefties, and a solid .772 OPS on the road; Phillies call of 3 or 4 runs is conservative, maybe--they could score 5...quite possible.

Over looks very tasty.

Still can't get Runge info on the web.
I'll edit this if they recover before I crash.

If Runge is even, as I sorta think, then I'll try the over.
If Runge is an under-lean, as I sorts think, then I'll pass and ride the LAD train to glory.
If the stupid website doesn't come back then I pass; got some other concerns for tonight and I'm backing the Dodgers, again, already.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

all of the sudden I NEED A SECONDARY SOURCE FOR UMPIRE INFO. If you know of one, other than shivers, then let me know.

I like the info to be there when I need it.
Site I'm using has done this before.

 

[bryanz]

Must be a labor of love, looks like allot of work every day, your becoming a daily source for me. It's a nice guide, once I have become familiar with your #'s. Thanks !!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

Nationals +121 1.5/1.82
Mariners -156 3.12/2

other picks

Dodgers -133 1.33/1
Indians -150 1.2/0.8
tigers +108 2/2.16

totals

mets@Sd un7.5 -118 2/1.7
o's@M's un8 +100 0.75/0.75

9-team IF bet
1.cards 0.57/0.5
2.o's@M's un8 0.5/0.5
3.Nats 0.5/0.55
4.tigers ov4.5 0.55/0.5
5.A's -1.5 0.5/0.63
6.Clev 0.9/0.6
7.Lad 1.14/0.85
8.Cubs -1.5 0.6/0.9
9.jays 1/1.1
0.57 to win max.6.13

9-team IF bet
1.ariz@Mil ov9 0.6/0.5
2.Clev -1.5 0.5/0.7
3.Lad ov4.5 0.52/0.5
4.orioles un4 0.72/0.5
5.tigers 0.63/0.6
6.Nats 0.7/0.77
7.Cubs -1.5 0.8/1.2
8.A's -1.5 0.6/0.75
9.jays 1/1.1
0.6 to win max.6.62

10-team IF bet
1.cws@Clev ov9.5 0.55/0.5
2.tigers 0.52/0.5
3.M's -1.5 0.5/0.68
4.Cubs -1.5 0.6/0.9
5.cards 0.57/0.5
6.mets@Sd un7.5 1/0.8
7.ariz@Mil ov9 0.72/0.6
8.Lad 1.35/1
9.Nats 0.8/0.88
10.jays 1/1.1
0.55 to win max.7.46

8-team IF bet
1.det@Min ov9.5 0.55/0.5
2.Mil -1.5 0.5/0.68
3.mets@Sd un7.5 0.62/0.5
4.Clev ov5 0.57/0.5
5.M's 0.8/0.5
6.Lad -1.5 0.67/1.08
7.Nats 0.75/0.83
8.jays 1/1.1
0.55 to win max.5.69


Can't bring myself to risk too much on the nasty Nats. This organization has been all about losing for the past 25 years. Should be favoured here today, though, in my opinion.
Giving the IF plays another shot?can't believe I was shut out there yesterday.
Like my sides; like my totals; maybe today won't be so bad afterall.
See you in the aftermath.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Here's a (maybe) quick look at Wednesday, as I've 'capped the games.

Looking at a possible 8 games at 60% or higher, depending on what happens tonight. I'll keep riding Zambrano if we can get a decent line vs the Giants (unlikely...maybe -170 to -185); I might try it up to -175, the madman that I am; both Cain and Zambrano have done good work vs opponent for this one so an under--whenever it opens--might pay off. Next highest calls will be the Bosox and Yankees, which will likely be priced out of my range; I kinda like Marcum but I wouldn't even touch the Jays at +150 here, facing the Rocket who's been golden at Yankee Stadium so far. Gotta be some good tips hidden in here somewhere; one, I think, is to play the Mets at -120 or better; I know that I will for this Maine-Maddux matchup, even if Peavy shuts them down tonight; can't see it being more than -130...probably closer to even than that, considering how games #1 and 2 were priced; -120 and it's a system pick regardless of tonight's outcome. I'm also drooling over the possibility of getting the Rangers tomorrow at anything close to even money (they'll likely be a dog...I just can't imagine by how much...can't be heavy...Millwood vs DiNardo, the ways the A's have stunk things up lately, I'd say sees the A's at -110 to -120...Texas +100 or better and I won't wait for the outcome of tonight's game); Millwood, as you hopefully know, is incredibly hot right now, and he's done great work the A's in his career; DiNardo still has the stellar era but he really hasn't impressed lately, and the A's pen is pretty bad--Rangers pen seems to be one of the teams strengths. Mets, Rangers and Cubs I'm especially anxious to see lines for.
Other sides are lower calls, including the Twins going with Santana vs Miller and the Tigers; Twins have battered Miller once this season already; Tigers OPS of .865 vs lefties (tops in MLB...20 or 30 points higher than Brewers) while the Twins are down around .725 vs lefties...I gotta give an edge to the Tigers bats in this contest no question; Twins edge at SP (and BP) is larger than the batting edge here, so I'm looking at a call of near 60% for the Twins; expecting a line of at least -145 so forget any value on that one.

For totals I'll be looking at maybe as many as 6 system unders depending on the numbers they give us. Harang-Smoltz might be one, though I'm wary of starters coming off the DL (Smoltz). Maine-Maddux might stay under (anything less than an 8 and I won't consider it), what with the Mets not hitting anybody too hard right now...I need to check out umps for all of these. Millwood-DiNardo might be worth an under try, maybe even at an 8; Rangers having some troubles with lefties recently (I still like the side better here). Bedard-Washburn is likely to get some under-cash from me, despite both clubs hitting better against lefties; they burn us with a 7.5 and I'll likely pass; at an 8 I'll be on it, as long as they don't rack up the score too much tonight; umpire might be important for this one, too.
Just a couple of possible over calls. Chisox-Indians with Buehrle and Westbrook might bust whatever number they present; both starters have done poor work vs opponent here; Indians winning % is higher vs righties, but they're OPS is higher vs lefties; Chisox apparently can hit, right now; at 10 this will be a system over but not at 10.5. The other big score probably comes at Fenway (Perez-Tavarez); this one WILL be a system over at 10.5, but it will just miss the cut at an 11, which is quite possible here; with a good over-ump going THEN it might become a system over at 11 (I'd give it a small bonus); Bosox also have a higher winning % against righties but a higher OPS against lefties; a big total tonight wouldn't discourage me.

I need some sleep.
T minus 6 hours until gametime.

 

[Hooks]

X, not sure I know who you use for umpire info?
I use jimfeist.net. I used to work for him back in 87,88. Shit industry if you ask me !