Tuesday June 19th 2007
yesterday: 2-6 -10.11
June: 113-112 -9.08
ml 53-42 -4.01
rl 9-11 -7.84
totals 43-29 +18.29
parlays 8-30 -15.52
system picks 1-3 yesterday; now 107-66 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 0-2 yesterday; now 45-25 for June
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Mil 71% (-165)+8 RL 57 (+132)+13
det 62 (-150)+2
Clev 63 (-155)+2
lad 56 (-125)even
min 54 (-132)-3
bost 54 (-117)even
fla 66 (+103)+16
Stl 59 (-150)-1
cubs 53 (-134)-5
nyy 62 (-160)even
tb 53 (+117)+6
Sd 70 (-250)-2 RL 55 (-109)+2
Oak 53 (-172)-11 cin 47 (+164)+9
Laa 51 (-156)-10 hou 49 (+148)+8
pitt 52 (+112)+4
system totals
phil@Clev ov10 76% (-125)+20 --Bucknor is a very good over-ump
min@Mets un7 65 (-115)+11 --Hirschbeck is BACK!!! He's a phenomenal under-ump!
bost@Atl un8.5 80 (-109)+27 --Marsh is more of an over-ump
cubs@Tex ov10.5 66 (+101)+16 --ump N/A
nyy@Col ov10.5 71 (-121)+16 --ump N/A
balt@Sd un7 80 (-111)+27 --ump N/A
cin@Oak un9 75 (-106)+23 --ump Marquez is even
System sides followed up a 12-3 Sunday by going 5-5 on Monday. What hurt me most was missing those two 70's (Cards & D'Backs). I just don't get it; 70+ went 23-3 in May (88.4% winners); with the 2 misses Monday, they're now 11-11 for June. Need to hit the next 10 straight just to reach 66% for 70's. Could happen; I'm pretty sure that May had a long streak in there, what with it's 23-3 mark overall. Gotta just move on, I guess?26% chance to lose a game is about 1 in 4, so it's not like I'm that shocked. Encarnacion, batting 4th, came up with the bases loaded in the 5th with one out, down by 2 (5-3); he grounded into a double play; I think that was the ballgame, right there; get a key hit, there, and my prediction of Perez being "dogmeat" comes through. As for totals, I'm glad I passed on the system calls; missed one by a half-run (@Shea) and the other wasn't close (@Turner). Shoulda taken the Tigers over 5, which would have been my only team total. Who needs yesterday; we've got today.
I'm already on the Brewers for a couple; think they can keep it going here, though I doubt if closer Cordero will be available after throwing 30+ in the top of the 9th yesterday. Also trying the Reds, small, as I think there's some value. I'll be on the Marlins, too, but I'm waiting for the line to move in my favour, thinking the Sox might attract early cash; I won't wait much longer; there's definate value in the Marlins line as it stands (Marlins OPS vs L .842 while Chisox OPS vs L .637). On top of that glaring edge for the Marlins, you've got the currently better-than-average Willis going against a former first-rounder who really hasn't looked that good this year; he also hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in a game all season, and the Chisox bullpen is pretty awful. The line is gorgeous, with a 66% call; 66's only 5-4 in June (55.5% winners) after going 9-5 in April (64.3% winners) and 10-5 in May (66.6% winners?bang on!). Everything else is iffy, for me, side-wise, though I might try a piece of the D'Rays (OPS vs L .822 while D'Backs OPS vs L .660). Davis has been hit by the D'Rays before (in 4 games, 3 starts, he's 1-1 with an 8.36 era, D'Rays batting .375 off him). I didn't expect much from Howell, when he first started, but he's thrown 2 beauties (vs Royals and Padres, the latter who hit lefties quite well) in his 3 starts (knocked around a bit in the middle start, at Florida (Marlins smoking lefties), but even in that one he struck out 9 Marlins in 5 IP. Worth a shot, especially after Monday's game.
Looks like I'm back on the total trail, here, after going a few days without playing any. I'm already on Phil@Clev over 10, as we've got a pair of unproven starters going against some pretty potent lineups; Lee made the Phillies look bad yesterday, but they've had a few good games vs lefties in the past week to 10 days (OPS vs L only .754, but up nicely from May's ending mark of .706); I don't think Stanford is as good as he looked against the Marlins, and Kendrick will more than likely have to take some serious lumps from the hot-hitting Indians (OPS vs R .791; OPS at home .812). Bucknor is one of the better over-umps around, so this one is a must-have, for me. The other one I'm already on is the Twins@Mets under 7; I hate the number, but if Sosa is on then I think this one results in a 4-2 or 3-2 type of score. Hirschbeck, Hendrix-Bless-Him (I love my unders!), is back, from whatever kept him away the past month or 6 weeks; he totally rocks as an under-ump; he is THE under-ump, even better than Doug Eddings. Worth a shot, I just wish it was an 8. Mets only .757 OPS at Shea; they're still dangerous to a lefty (OPS .816?WAS .864 to end May), but Santana pitched a beauty in his only trip to Shea (got the W pitching 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 er, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K); he's 2-0 against the Mets in his career, in 2 starts, with an era of 1.38, Mets batting .200 off him. Twins with a decent chance to win, but the 54% call I've come up with seems reasonable; no value at present lines, really. Other totals I'm still looking at, though I may see if Peavy has another hum-dinger in him, against the lowly O's here (OPS vs R .700); if Trachsel can keep the hits down, like he's been doing for much of the season, then this one could stay under 7, also, especially at Petco. Padres OPS vs R .690. Padres OPS at home .664?doesn't get much worse than that?that's Petco, for you.
Here's hoping that yesterday was just a blemish in my comeback. Ratsen Fratsen!!
Will post picks once popped.
GL
yesterday: 2-6 -10.11
June: 113-112 -9.08
ml 53-42 -4.01
rl 9-11 -7.84
totals 43-29 +18.29
parlays 8-30 -15.52
system picks 1-3 yesterday; now 107-66 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 0-2 yesterday; now 45-25 for June
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Mil 71% (-165)+8 RL 57 (+132)+13
det 62 (-150)+2
Clev 63 (-155)+2
lad 56 (-125)even
min 54 (-132)-3
bost 54 (-117)even
fla 66 (+103)+16
Stl 59 (-150)-1
cubs 53 (-134)-5
nyy 62 (-160)even
tb 53 (+117)+6
Sd 70 (-250)-2 RL 55 (-109)+2
Oak 53 (-172)-11 cin 47 (+164)+9
Laa 51 (-156)-10 hou 49 (+148)+8
pitt 52 (+112)+4
system totals
phil@Clev ov10 76% (-125)+20 --Bucknor is a very good over-ump
min@Mets un7 65 (-115)+11 --Hirschbeck is BACK!!! He's a phenomenal under-ump!
bost@Atl un8.5 80 (-109)+27 --Marsh is more of an over-ump
cubs@Tex ov10.5 66 (+101)+16 --ump N/A
nyy@Col ov10.5 71 (-121)+16 --ump N/A
balt@Sd un7 80 (-111)+27 --ump N/A
cin@Oak un9 75 (-106)+23 --ump Marquez is even
System sides followed up a 12-3 Sunday by going 5-5 on Monday. What hurt me most was missing those two 70's (Cards & D'Backs). I just don't get it; 70+ went 23-3 in May (88.4% winners); with the 2 misses Monday, they're now 11-11 for June. Need to hit the next 10 straight just to reach 66% for 70's. Could happen; I'm pretty sure that May had a long streak in there, what with it's 23-3 mark overall. Gotta just move on, I guess?26% chance to lose a game is about 1 in 4, so it's not like I'm that shocked. Encarnacion, batting 4th, came up with the bases loaded in the 5th with one out, down by 2 (5-3); he grounded into a double play; I think that was the ballgame, right there; get a key hit, there, and my prediction of Perez being "dogmeat" comes through. As for totals, I'm glad I passed on the system calls; missed one by a half-run (@Shea) and the other wasn't close (@Turner). Shoulda taken the Tigers over 5, which would have been my only team total. Who needs yesterday; we've got today.
I'm already on the Brewers for a couple; think they can keep it going here, though I doubt if closer Cordero will be available after throwing 30+ in the top of the 9th yesterday. Also trying the Reds, small, as I think there's some value. I'll be on the Marlins, too, but I'm waiting for the line to move in my favour, thinking the Sox might attract early cash; I won't wait much longer; there's definate value in the Marlins line as it stands (Marlins OPS vs L .842 while Chisox OPS vs L .637). On top of that glaring edge for the Marlins, you've got the currently better-than-average Willis going against a former first-rounder who really hasn't looked that good this year; he also hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in a game all season, and the Chisox bullpen is pretty awful. The line is gorgeous, with a 66% call; 66's only 5-4 in June (55.5% winners) after going 9-5 in April (64.3% winners) and 10-5 in May (66.6% winners?bang on!). Everything else is iffy, for me, side-wise, though I might try a piece of the D'Rays (OPS vs L .822 while D'Backs OPS vs L .660). Davis has been hit by the D'Rays before (in 4 games, 3 starts, he's 1-1 with an 8.36 era, D'Rays batting .375 off him). I didn't expect much from Howell, when he first started, but he's thrown 2 beauties (vs Royals and Padres, the latter who hit lefties quite well) in his 3 starts (knocked around a bit in the middle start, at Florida (Marlins smoking lefties), but even in that one he struck out 9 Marlins in 5 IP. Worth a shot, especially after Monday's game.
Looks like I'm back on the total trail, here, after going a few days without playing any. I'm already on Phil@Clev over 10, as we've got a pair of unproven starters going against some pretty potent lineups; Lee made the Phillies look bad yesterday, but they've had a few good games vs lefties in the past week to 10 days (OPS vs L only .754, but up nicely from May's ending mark of .706); I don't think Stanford is as good as he looked against the Marlins, and Kendrick will more than likely have to take some serious lumps from the hot-hitting Indians (OPS vs R .791; OPS at home .812). Bucknor is one of the better over-umps around, so this one is a must-have, for me. The other one I'm already on is the Twins@Mets under 7; I hate the number, but if Sosa is on then I think this one results in a 4-2 or 3-2 type of score. Hirschbeck, Hendrix-Bless-Him (I love my unders!), is back, from whatever kept him away the past month or 6 weeks; he totally rocks as an under-ump; he is THE under-ump, even better than Doug Eddings. Worth a shot, I just wish it was an 8. Mets only .757 OPS at Shea; they're still dangerous to a lefty (OPS .816?WAS .864 to end May), but Santana pitched a beauty in his only trip to Shea (got the W pitching 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 er, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K); he's 2-0 against the Mets in his career, in 2 starts, with an era of 1.38, Mets batting .200 off him. Twins with a decent chance to win, but the 54% call I've come up with seems reasonable; no value at present lines, really. Other totals I'm still looking at, though I may see if Peavy has another hum-dinger in him, against the lowly O's here (OPS vs R .700); if Trachsel can keep the hits down, like he's been doing for much of the season, then this one could stay under 7, also, especially at Petco. Padres OPS vs R .690. Padres OPS at home .664?doesn't get much worse than that?that's Petco, for you.
Here's hoping that yesterday was just a blemish in my comeback. Ratsen Fratsen!!
Will post picks once popped.
GL
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