Tuesday June 26th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday June 26th 2007

yesterday: 6-5 -1.24
June: 152-138 +8.83
ml 75-54 +7.44
rl 10-12 -7.06
totals 54-35 +24.05
parlays 13-37 -15.60
system picks went 1-2 yesterday; now 120-75 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals went 2-0 yesterday; now 66-36 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Fla 74% (-161)+12 RL 61 (+128)+17
cin 54 (+136)+11
Mets 75 (-203)+8 RL 61 (+100)+11
Atl 55 (-149)-5
Cubs 58 (-139)-1
Mil 65 (-138)+7 RL 50 (+150)+10
lad 55 (-109)+2
Sf 54 (-114)even
nyy 52 (-149)-8 Balt 48 (+141)+6
Det 57 (-210)-11 tex 43 (+195)+9
oak 56 (-121)+1
Tb 63 (-134)+5
tor 62 (+101)+12
Seat 58 (-133)even
Laa 56 (-166)-7 kc 44 (+158)+5

system totals

stl@Mets un9.5 75% (-120)+20 --Barrett is a decent under-ump (always high K%; should help the walk-prone Perez, here)
hou@Mil ov9 66 (-123)+10 --Bill Welke an under-ump; kills this play
oak@Clev ov8.5 68 (-119)+13 --ump Nauert is even
cws@Tb un9 65 (-120)+10 --Miller is a bit of an under-ump
bost@Seat un9 67 (-110)+14 --Cederstrom a slight over-ump, including 9-5 this year


Yesterday was no surprise; after 3 straight winners I was due for a loser; at least it wasn't too bad. Francis didn't have such a hot game, killing my biggest play (well?same risk as Brewers). I did go 1-0 on totals (pitching change in Clev), picking up a unit, and 1-1 on parlays to pick up next to nothing there. System sides went an okay 7-5, and hit a couple of high 60's (Braves and Mets), but only went 1-2 on flippin' 70's; Tigers and Angels both lost, but Brewers were the only system pick of the 70's and at least they came through. A bullpen collapse in Tampa killed that system pick while a 2-out error at Wrigley killed what was almost an amazing comeback by the Rockies. I'll accept what the BBBetting Gods have given me and now turn my attention towards Tuesday.

Tuesday's board has a few tempting plays, especially if you don't mind laying some juice. Marlins, Mets and Brewers are system picks, despite the expensive prices. For something a little less pricey, system picks also include the Reds and the Blue Jays. Jays might be my biggest play, as I believe that this one is a big starting pitching mismatch; the Jays cashing 8 on Monday makes me believe they can get it done Tuesday. Reds I'll try, but I expect Yankee money to improve the price a little, so I might wait a bit. Orioles and Rangers are both tempting, mostly because of the lines; Koronka probably mediocre, at best, and Tigers are smoking lefties, but Rangers handling lefties just fine, too, and Robertson has not been sharp this year?coming off the DL for this one, too, so he'll probably need some help from a questionable bullpen. D'Rays are always a risk?didn't I comment I was worried most about that one??but I might try a unit on Shields, here, and see if he can get his shit together.

Totals I'm still debating. At Milwaukee and Seattle we've got inappropriate umpires going for the system totals, so I'll be passing on those?still think that the Brewers game has a chance to go over, but I won't push my luck with under-ump Welke going. Other totals I might try; nothing stands out; the over at Cleveland and the under at Tampa are early thoughts.

Will post picks when completed.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hey Joe (where you goin' with that gun in your hand?),

I answered the OPS question yesterday, but here it is again: OPS is "on-base+slugging percentage", so it accounts for walks, extra-base hits, and batting averages. I find it the most useful of all offensive stats. It doesn't account for speed, which is really the only drawback I can think of, e.g. stolen bases; it actually DOES account for speed if we're talking about speed to achieve doubles and triples.

As for the value indicator, it's simply a measure of the probability against the break-even mark for any given line.
e.g. if I've got a game 'capped at 55%,
and the line is +100,
then I've got a +5 value indicator, as the break-even mark for +100s is (obviously) 50%.
It's just a simple indicator of value, but I think it is an ideal way to assess lines.

Hope that helps.
Anything else I can clear up and feel free to ask (I just keep funny hours).

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

c'mon freakin' 70's!!!...the law of averages dictates that these babies are going to cash!!!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

return on investment breakdown for 70's
------------------------------------------------------------
(Marlins,Mets)
-------------------------------------------------------------

Marlins 74% (-154)+13 V.I.

argument for game:
--Marlins OPS vs L .852
--pirates OPS vs L .720
(Marlins big edge comes at the plate, here)
--Marlins come in with the higher rated starter--despite Willis' struggles--and the bullpens are comparable
--Pirates don't travel very well (.685 OPS on the road with a record of 16-23)
--Pirates have lost 5 straight

-154 is 64.9 cents on the dollar
74 x 0.649 = 48.026
26 x -1......= -26
---------------------------------
.....................22.026%

That's excellent. I'm glad I've waited because this line has moved in my favour.

I wonder how the runline looks...

Marlins -1.5 61% (+133)+18 V.I. (return should be massive)

61 x 1.33 = 81.13
39 x -1.....= -39
------------------------------
...................42.13%

Wow. An increase of
20.104/22.026%=
over 91% for the runline ROI,
with an increased risk of
13/26%=
50% (26% to lose the ml, 39% to lose the rl)

That's a fair trade-off. Runlines are just scaring the shit out of me right now; even missed one yesterday (Tigers). Moneyline is VERY reasonable.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Mets 75% (-201)+8 V.I.

argument for game:
--Mets .735 OPS vs R
--cards .693 OPS vs L
--Mets pitching will be the real difference in this game as they have a major edge at starter and a small edge in the bullpen (opponent's hitting .207 off of Perez...only .185 off him at Shea; opponent's batting .291 off of Wellemeyer...365 when he's on the road)
--ump Ted Barrett has a large strike zone (always high K%), so Perez's one weakness this season--walks--should be kept to a minimum
--Mets are 22-18 at home and have won 4 straight
--cards are 16-21 on the road and have lost 2 straight

-201 is 49.7 cents on the dollar
75 x 0.497 = 37.275
25 x -1......= -25
---------------------------------
....................12.275%

Line is too darn high. Opened lower but I was too late to get better than -200.
I'm already on the runline...let's check it out...

Mets -1.5 61% (+100)+11 V.I.
(notice a 13 point drop for the rl in Florida with a 14 point drop at Shea; larger reduction for Mets rl is due to the lower-scoring park)

61 x 1 = 61
39 x -1 = -39
-----------------------
...............22%

That's an increase of
9.725/12.275%=
79% over the moneyline ROI
with an increased risk of
14/25%=
56%.

That's a fair trade-off. All 4 of those discussed are system plays due to the high value indicators.

One more...I might try this...

---------------------------------------------------------------------
return on investment breakdown for 70's PARLAY
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Marlins 74%
Mets 75%
-----------------------
a 55.5% chance to hit the parlay

pays (-154 and -201)...+147 (not bad)

55.5 x 1.47 = 81.585
44.5 x -1.....= -44.5
---------------------------------
.....................37.085%

Wow. That's pretty good.
Almost a 50% chance of failure, but the payout makes it worthwhile.

I need to assimilate.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

Marlins -154 4.62/3
reds +136 1.47/2
Mets -1.5 +100 2/2
Brewers -138 2.07/1.5
blue jays +101 3/3.03

other picks

dodgers -106 0.77/0.73
D'Rays -134 1.34/1

totals

stl@Mets un9.5 -120 0.84/0.7

2-teamer (for some action on a couple of probables)
--a's ml
--Mariners ml
+222
0.45/1

2-teamer (BIG-FAT-JUICY 70'S GIMME A HUGE BREAK ONE TIME!!!)
--Marlins ml
--Mets ml
+147
1.36/2


Well?I guess you know where I stand today. Mets, Marlins & Blue Jays would make me happy?probably pick up something else today?really like that Reds play, it's just hard to put too much on them in Philly. Brewers are likely winners as they're killing lefties this season. Dodgers have a good shot with Billingsley; he's done good work vs the D'Backs in the past, and Gonzalez is just in there 'cuz the Unit is still out (coming back Thursday or Friday, I believe); Edgar kinda sucks, so LAD with a chance to take the first two?maybe the third?it'll be Lowe-Webb (have the D'Backs 'capped for around 56% for that one; D'Backs aren't Lowe's favorite opponent); that third game sounds like an under to me. Taking a shot on the D'Rays, although I liked there chances a little better yesterday, and they lost; like yesterday, even before the action, this is a play I'm sorta regretting; time will tell. Totals don't interest me today; just playing the one.

Wednesday might see a full 9 games in the 60's. As many as 6 of those might be OVER 65%. Cubs and Angels have the largest numbers, both over 70; Angels will be -250 to -280, I'm expecting (Weaver-De La Rosa), so it'll be the runline or nothing for me; at closer to -200 I might put them on a parlay. Cubs will be expensive, too (Zambrano-Hirsh), probably -180 to -200; at least, I'm hoping for something as cheap as a -180 as I'd probably try for a couple of units. Better bargains will probably appear elsewhere. Marlins as cheap as -150 would be worth a try (Mitre-Van Benschoten). Mets are facing Thompson or Reyes?still not sure who to believe on that one?and will likely be heavy favorites; Glavine with a good chance to baffle the Cards (OPS vs L .684), as he has in the past (19-6, 3.55 era vs Cards), and either Cards starter is hittable; I'll especially like the game if it's Reyes going, though the line will likely be similar for either one (probably -180 to -200?only a play for me if it's Reyes, for that price). Braves will be heavy faves (Smoltz-Bowie), and I think that the under will be a better choice there. Bosox will have a huge number tomorrow, even with a reduction in Matsuzaka's rating due to a poor game vs M's earlier this season; he's pretty hot currently. Feierabend has been very bad this season, and the Bosox are (still) feasting on lefties (OPS .828). I'm expecting between -140 and -160 for the Bosox, here; even at the -160 it would still be a system pick, as long as the Bosox don't get smoked tonight (whereas I'll be lowering the call somewhat). Indians will also be massive favorites (Carmona-DiNardo); DiNardo has looked pretty bad for 2 straight, now, and Carmona is getting more consistent; Indians big edge with the sticks is what really counts; this one could be anywhere from -140 to -180; at -150 I'll be all over it?will LOVE IT if the Indians beat Haren tonight. For totals I'm going to have a number of system calls; unders are possible in Sf, Fla, NY, Atl (very under), Arizona & Baltimore; overs are possible in Milwaukee and Minnesota. I'll have Wednesday's numbers up sometime between 11 pm and 1 am, most likely.

That's it from here.
GL

 

[bej0101]

great info

 

[Regular Joe]

Ex,

Thanks for the reply. One more question...do you use the whole season stats or a rolling (like last 14 games) number to determine your values?

Thanks, and good luck!
"Joe" (with the gun in his hand)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks bej0101,

Helps me too; let's me put down my thoughts on games.

------------------------------------------------------------

Joe,

to a certain degree I use both; I use full-season stats for my base offense and then might raise or lower (not much...just a bit) based on how teams are performing recently (won't look back any more than about a week, for that--mostly I'm interested in how the offenses are performing over the last 3-4 days, kind of thing).

------------------------------------------------------------------

Nice call on those Reds, aye?
I figured I'd ride this Bailey kid until he put up a stinker--I guess this qualifies.

Sure could use the Marlinsticks to get going.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

frig...I hate the damn runline.

flippin' Mets can't hit OBA .365 on the road Wellemeyer?

Gimme a break!

:com: