Tuesday June 5th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday June 5th 2007

yesterday: 6-1 +5.98
June: 29-20 +4.13
ml 14-7 +1.8
rl 1-0 +0.75
totals 13-8 +4.46
parlays 1-5 -2.88
system picks 1-0 yesterday; now 87-46 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 11-6 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Wash 52% (-103)+1
Mets 71 (-145)+11 RL 57 (+150)+17
(1)fla 65 (-114)+11 RL 50 (+142)+8
cubs 52 (+104)+2
cin 56 (-112)+3
Col 55 (-129)-2
Ariz 58 (-131)+1
Sd 59 (-143)even
Tor 70 (-240)-1 RL 56 (-110)+3
Clev 78 (-260)+5 RL 65 (-125)+9
Cws 54 (-116)even
det 54 (-123)-2
Seat 55 (-140)-4
bost 60 (-158)-2
Laa 67 (-191)+1 RL 53 (+115)+6
(2)Atl 66 (-230)-4 RL 51 (-110)-2

system totals

pitt@Wash un8.5 68% (-125)+12
phil@Mets un8.5 68 (+105)+19
hou@Col ov10 65 (-120)+10
lad@Sd un7 77 (-110)+24
nyy@Cws un10 67 (-110)+14 --Meals is a very good under-ump
det@Tex ov11 66 (+105)+17
bost@Oak un9 67 (+100)+17 --ump Emmel is even


Flippin' Embree can't hold a 2-run lead in the 9th, costing me a perfect day (had the under 8.5). 3-0 on the moneyline and finally hit a parlay. I shouldn't complain about missing one, but it's always nice to hit the last one of the night. Better action coming, anyway?

System sides went 7-2 yesterday, for a 3-day record of 30-9 (76.9% winners). A true test comes today, as there are some BIG numbers listed above.
System totals 2-1 yesterday as mentioned; shoulda been 3-0, with an Embree save; 11-6 in June is a beautiful start, especially since May ended up so strong; 7 listed today, and no umpire eliminations (might be worthwhile to wait closer to game time on these ones...just to see who the umps will be); Meals a big help in Chicago, but who knows how Clippard will throw for the Yankees; Buehrle has been pounded by the Yankees before, too (he's 1-4 with a 6.42 era in 6 starts vs); Yanks OPS vs L only at .749, after an .800 last year; Chisox OPS vs R only .712, and a dismal .703 at home...they were .827 at home last year; like I say...Meals helps the play.

Today's board has the potential to be turned into a real work of art, if picks are chosen wisely. I need to look into a few more things before making any moves. I can feel a good run coming on.

Be back later to post Hendrix-knows-what.
GL

 

[GFan9991]

WOW. Great day yesterday Ex. Keep up the great work. Your numbers are really a big help to me when I finalize my bets on when to lay off certain games. I appreciate you posting your system each and every day. Lets hit the books hard Tuesday. I love to see those big numbers(70's):00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hendrix Bless You, GFan!
Let's do this thing!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

System really likes the Indians, at 78% (0-1 on 78's in June, missing Peavy's last start).

I don't think I can bring myself to play the moneyline, at -260, but I'm curious how this will break down...

return on investment breakdown
-------------------------------------------------
78%
-260 (+5) pays 38.4 cents on the dollar

78 x .384 = 29.952
22 x -1.....=..-22
-------------------------------
..................7.952% ROI

Not the greatest, but only a 22% risk makes it tempting.

-1.5 65%
-125 (+9) pays 80 cents on the dollar

65 x 0.8 = 52
35 x -1...= -35
-----------------------
..............17% ROI

Much more attractive, there; not bad for a high 65%.

Greater risk than the moneyline:
13/22% = a 59% increase in risk

Better ROI:
9.048/7.952 = a 113% increase in ROI

That's a fair trade-off.

RL # is so high (65%) as De La Rosa has been pounded lately, and Indians not as bad vs lefties as some are suggesting (OPS vs L .785...they're .813 vs R).
Indians OPS at home .829.
Royals OPS vs L at .696.
Sabathia 5-0, 3.23 era at home.
Huge bullpen edge to Indians.
(Note: OPS numbers are from the end of May as MLB.com is currently down:com: )

Bottom Line
-----------------
No Contest

I think the runline should be safe, here, as Indians are in the score-often mode due to just having faced the Tigers.

Prediction:
Indians 7, Royals 3

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Here are a couple more totals that I'm thinking about.
Not quite system calls (need 65%...usually).

cubs@Mil ov8.5 59% (-120)+4
sf@Ariz un8 62 (-125)+6


Johnson has been lights out and Cain often worth an under-shot (4 of his last 5 games have totalled 8 or less, including 3 straight--the OVER was @Coors).

Seems worth a shot. System call isn't THAT great (62%) as this isn't exactly a pitcher's park they're playing in, and Johnson has been bad at home so far (0-2, era of 6.00 in 4 starts); Johnson probably lowers that number here.

Needed some late-inning scoring to get the over at Miller Park yesterday.
Might be worth a shot again today.
Vargas DOES have an era of 3.60 at home, though, and the Brewers pen is strong.
Vargas not as sharp his past 4.
Cubs OPS vs R .735
Brewers OPS vs L .753 (down from .801 a month ago)
Cubs have beaten up on Vargas in limited work (16 IP, era of 9.00).
Lilly has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his past 2 starts, but was great vs Brewers April 25th at home (got the W in a 9-3 game).

I can't bring myself to try the Cubs again, even though the system like thems (52%); line just isn't high enough at +101.

Over or nothing.

Brewers gotta get in gear sometime, don't they?

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Not sure how to play this game at Petco.

System likes the Padres (59%...that's adjusted somewhat for tough Dodgers travel schedule).

Likes the under 7 a lot more (77%).

A decent 5 innings by Schmidt and the bullpen might save a Padres u4.5 here (I think it's listed at 4, but that's besides the point).

Young has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in his past 6 starts (opponent's have totalled 0,2,5,1,3 then 0 off the Padres, making a Dodgers un3.5 play sound good).

Young has an era of 0.66 in 27.1 innings at home.

Question mark, on the total, has to be on Schmidt.

Padres have hit him before; he allowed 4 earned runs in 7 IP for his only Petco start last season.

Probably shouldn't expect miracles from him here; I wonder if I should get a piece of the moneyline...

...I think that this 59% may be giving Schmidt too much credit (though Dodgers pen is great).

(((((so is Padres)))))

Young 0-2 (3.62 era) in 6 starts vs Dodgers; that probably changes here.

59%'ers are currently 30-20 for 2007 (that's 60% folks...is that a sweet correspondance or what?).
4-0 to start off June.

Do I hear 5-0 anyone?

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

deep in the heArt of Texas

deep in the heArt of Texas

Robertson has pretty solid number vs Rangers:
3-3, 2.89 era in 8 starts.

But check out his numbers at Ameriquest:
3-0, 1.71 era in 3 starts.

I think I'll pass on the over 11, as Robertson might right himself here (been shaky last 2).

System likes the Tigers, but not TOO much (54%) as Padilla is 2-0 with a 2.70 era in 3 vs them.

Tigers %'s should increase later in the series when they're chucking a more reliable starter (say Verlander).

I'll be interested to see how the system calls do (Tigers and OVER), but I think I'm a spectator.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

They keep rockin' and I'll keep talkin'.

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total.452-335..203-165...249-170?35-19
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13??2-1
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10??5-1
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10??3-1
54??...28-24?..14-8?...14-16??3-3
55??...24-26?..9-12??.15-14??4-1
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12??0-1
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11??
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5??..2-1
59??...26-20?..11-11....15-9??..4-0
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12??1-1
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8??..2-1
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10??1-0
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8??..2-3
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6??..1-1
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9??..3-0
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5??..1-1
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6???
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1???1-0
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2???
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1???0-1
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0???0-1
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1???
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0???
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0???
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1???
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???
77
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???0-1
79
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0
totals?..106-94?..45-53?..61-41?...11-6
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.


Just need to get 70's back on track.
Couple high 60's on board today; would nice to hit those, too.
I, personally, need the 59% today (Padres).
Everything else is just out of curiosity.

And maybe some improved stats.

Plays are coming...

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Dang...still not done yet.

Some team totals I'm thinking about (and trying to narrow down):
(w/relative system number)

(1)marlins over 4.5 -120 (+7)

cubs over 4 -125 (+1)

dodgers under 3.5 -135 (-19)

d'rays under 3.5 -120 (-10)

Indians over 5 -110 (+12)

Angels over 5 +105 (+5)


I'll be curious to see how they do, especially the ones I play.

Can't touch 'em all.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -145 4.35/3
(1)marlins -114 1.14/1
Indians -1.5 -125 3/2.4

other picks

Padres -140 2.1/1.5
Blue Jays -1.5 -110 1.1/1
Angels -1.5 +115 1/1.15

totals

pitt@Wash un8.5 -122 0.61/0.5
cubs@Mil ov8.5 -116 0.58/0.5
sf@Ariz un8 -125 1.25/1
dodgers under 3.5 -135 1/0.74
d'rays under 3.5 -120 0.6/0.5
nyy@Cws un10 +100 0.65/0.65

3-teamer (70%ers to .500 parlay)
--Mets ml
--Blue Jays ml
--Indians ml
+235
0.85/2

3-teamer (AL Home-Team Special)
--Blue Jays ml
--Indians ml
--Angels ml
+201
0.5/1

2-teamer (Lucky Line Special)
--Blue Jays ml
--Angels ml
+113
0.88/1

2-teamer (poundable pitcher parlay)
--(1)marlins over 4.5
--cubs over 4
+230
0.43/1

I'd go more on the Marlins here, but last I heard Mitre was still experiencing pain.
I hope that the Mets don't pull a stinker like they did against the last lefty they faced (OPS vs L was one billion before that game).
Don't have the Mets as big as a couple of days ago BECAUSE of a couple of days ago; Mets can still sort of make or break my day; why not; seems to best the best line of the 70's. Got action on 5 of the 6 biggest numbers (Smoltz-V-Hurk is a mismatch, but I'm going to take it easy on the Braves right now; certainly a no-go at this price).
More than 2 units risked on parlays today; hope I don't regret it.
I think the sides are pretty solid, though, so I have a decent chance of cashing them.

That's it from here.
Let's do this thing!

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Gl today X! Keep it up!

 

[T OFF]

GOOD LUCK EXPO

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

OMG...system sides looking at a possible 4-12 (or something similar).:com:

Gettin' my arse handed to me, today.

Could sure use a freaking Padres run,
and a quiet finish in 'Zona.

Angels look like they'll at least save me a few parlays.

and A stinking runline (played 3).

Crap I hate the runline.

One flippin' run off of Po N De rOsa, Indians?

Gimme a HUGE break one time!

Hoping to do better tomorrow...won't be tough.

Numbers will be up within an hour, I figure.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanky-You, Mr. Hoffman!

:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

:00hour undEr? 8:00hour

I'll take it.

About as happy as I can be about dropping 5 units.

:SIB