Tuesday May 1st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday May 1st 2007

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

cubs 61% (-147)+1
Mets 60 (-145)even
phil 63 (-124)+7
Mil 56 (-122)+
cin 58 (-106)+6
Sd 59 (-153)-2
Lad 64 (-156)+3
Sf 58 (-131)+1
Bost 64 (-166)+1
Clev 53 (-144)-7
Det 52 (-124)-4
min 55 (-102)+4
nyy 62 (-138)+4
laa 54 (-130)-3
Seat 61 (-114)+7

system totals

balt@Det un9 69% (+110)+21 --ump Diaz a slight under-play
min@Tbay ov10.5 67 (-120)+12 --ump N/A
nyy@Tex ov11 68 (-105)+16 --ump N/A
cws@Seat u8.5 65 (-110)+12 --ump N/A

Everitt, going in fla@Mets, is a slight over-ump.
West, going in phil@Atl, is a slight over-ump.
Schrieber, going in wash@Sd, is an over-ump.
Dreckman, going in laa@Kc, is a slight over-ump.
Slight under-umps going in Pitt, Mil, Sf, and Detroit.


PLAYS

system sides

phillies -124 1.24/1
Seat -114 1.14/1

other sides

reds -106 0.84/0.8
nyy -138 1.38/1

totals

fla@Mets ov9.5 -110 0.55/0.5
wash@Sd ov7 -110 0.78/0.72
a's@Bosox un9 -110 0.55/0.5
jays@Clev un8.5 +100 0.5/0.5
o's@Det un9 +110 0.5/0.55
min@Tb ov10.5 -120 0.72/0.6

7-teamer
--cubs ml
--Mets ml
--phillies ml
--Dodgers ml
--Bosox ml
--nyy ml
--Mariners ml
+3740
0.2/7.48

That's a wrap

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Record Update

Record Update

Here is the updated record, for April, of how both my system numbers are doing and how my posted picks are doing.

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...
51??...17-15?.17-15??
52??...13-13?.13-13?..
53??...16-16?.16-16?..
54??...14-8?...14-8??
55??...9-12??9-12?..
56??...17-4??17-4?..
57??...8-6??...8-6?..
58??...8-11??.8-11?.
59??...11-11?..11-11?.
60??...12-9??12-9?..
61??...10-8??10-8?..
62??...10-8??10-8?..
63??...13-9??13-9?..
64??...7-10??7-10?..
65??...10-4??10-4?..
66??...9-5??...9-5?..
67??...6-2??...6-2?..
68??...5-4??...5-4?..
69??...1-2??...1-2?..
70??...2-2??...2-2?..
71??...1-2??...1-2?..
72??...1-1??...1-1?..
73??...1-1??...1-1?..
74??...2-1??...2-1?..
75??...0-1??...0-1?..
76
77
78
79
80
totals?..45-53?..45-53?..
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..


Last week of April really hurt me--went from up 16 units to down 4.
Parlays seems to be what really hurt; I made over 12 units on the moneyline with a nice record there (80-45) but lost over 9 on parlays.
Totals hurt early, but have been coming around.

As for system numbers...they ended up about as expected for April--hard to gauge how teams will perform this early.

60%+ are at 56.6%, so far, which is pretty bad.
Some numbers are hitting well (e.g. 54, 56, 63, 65, 66, 67) while others are doing lousy (most notably 64's, 69's and 70's in general).

I've updated a bunch of numbers, now that April is finished, and I'm expecting system numbers to improve overall.

System sides currently at 203-165 for 55.2% winners.

I'll have system numbers up by games end tonight.
Bosox presently at 75% for tomorrow.
Next in line is San Fran at 70%.
Both are expensive, but both are system plays according to the numbers.

GL tonight