Updated MJ's YTD Record:
MLB sides/totals 11-7 +43.05 units
MLB parlays 3-7 +8.52 units
NBA sides/totals 5-3 +11.09 units
Overall Units Won = +62.66 units
Let's keep things going tonight - been hot and look to continue the success...
Two plays tonight....
I'm taking my shot against Schilling tonight - Twins can give Boston a run in this game & will take a shot at them winning...got them at +220 which i feel is tremendous value...
Here is my theory on why i refuse to lay the big -230 to -300 juice some of these pitchers command - and this theory makes handicapping very easy...simply bet against a pitcher w/ the big juice, in this case Schilling was -230...i ask myself one simple question - in 3 games Schilling pitches where he is -230 or higher, will he go 3-0 or is there a reasonable chance he will lose at least one...I can 90% of the time make a case that it is unreasonable to assume he will always go 3-0...say i bet 1 unit on the dog he is pitching against at +220 - if my dogs win 1 out of 3, i show a profit of .2 units...small return, but low risk of hitting 1 of 3...on the flipside laying 2.3 units to win a unit, i need my pitcher's team to go 3-0 to pick up 3 units - that is my only way to profit here...going 2-1 would return a -.3 units...so my theory is this - play against a -230 or higher pitcher for 3 consecutive times when he pitches at this number - not consecutive starts - i think you will see in the long run how nicely this comes out...not saying to do it all the time, just that it's better to take a shot with the dog - and when that stud pitcher goes a nice 0-3 over the stretch netting you 6.6 units you realize the value of playing against high priced pitching in the long run...sounds easy - well it is...i always say capping doesn't have to be tough...and shouldn't always rely on stats - stats only indicate to us what has happened in the past, but is not always the best indicator, sometimes you just have to play against the obvious and let the game take over and upsets WILL happen - more frequently than you can predict...
Take this into consideration for the future & try it...there will be times that pitcher will go 3-0 - so you are out 3 units...but when that pitcher goes 0-3 and you pick up 6.6 units or more or even when he goes 1-2 and you pick up 3.4 units - you will see the value...
Especially look for scenarios like this Boston & Minnesota game where you have a Minnesota team capable of winning - i mean they are 38-30, with a winning road record, only 1 win less than Boston - this is the time to take your shot against the big pitcher like Schilling...if this play drops - i keep it in mind for when Schilling is -230 or higher in the future & play against again...if it fails 3 times in a row...start w/ a new pitcher
Play on Minnesota +220
Risking 3 units to win 6.6 units
2nd play:
I like Oakland to beat Anaheim tonight. Tim Hudson has been sensational and in his last 21 starts against the Angels sports a sweet 13W-5L record w/ 3.25 era...Hudson has pitched well all year and I know Anaheim has done well so far against Oakland, and Oakland is on a 3 game skid, but look for Hudson to get the job done - much better pitcher, at a valued price...take a shot on Oakland tonight
Play on Oakland -130
Risking 3.9 units to win 3 units
Gl to you all!
--Save It (formerly known as TrumpTight)
MLB sides/totals 11-7 +43.05 units
MLB parlays 3-7 +8.52 units
NBA sides/totals 5-3 +11.09 units
Overall Units Won = +62.66 units
Let's keep things going tonight - been hot and look to continue the success...
Two plays tonight....
I'm taking my shot against Schilling tonight - Twins can give Boston a run in this game & will take a shot at them winning...got them at +220 which i feel is tremendous value...
Here is my theory on why i refuse to lay the big -230 to -300 juice some of these pitchers command - and this theory makes handicapping very easy...simply bet against a pitcher w/ the big juice, in this case Schilling was -230...i ask myself one simple question - in 3 games Schilling pitches where he is -230 or higher, will he go 3-0 or is there a reasonable chance he will lose at least one...I can 90% of the time make a case that it is unreasonable to assume he will always go 3-0...say i bet 1 unit on the dog he is pitching against at +220 - if my dogs win 1 out of 3, i show a profit of .2 units...small return, but low risk of hitting 1 of 3...on the flipside laying 2.3 units to win a unit, i need my pitcher's team to go 3-0 to pick up 3 units - that is my only way to profit here...going 2-1 would return a -.3 units...so my theory is this - play against a -230 or higher pitcher for 3 consecutive times when he pitches at this number - not consecutive starts - i think you will see in the long run how nicely this comes out...not saying to do it all the time, just that it's better to take a shot with the dog - and when that stud pitcher goes a nice 0-3 over the stretch netting you 6.6 units you realize the value of playing against high priced pitching in the long run...sounds easy - well it is...i always say capping doesn't have to be tough...and shouldn't always rely on stats - stats only indicate to us what has happened in the past, but is not always the best indicator, sometimes you just have to play against the obvious and let the game take over and upsets WILL happen - more frequently than you can predict...
Take this into consideration for the future & try it...there will be times that pitcher will go 3-0 - so you are out 3 units...but when that pitcher goes 0-3 and you pick up 6.6 units or more or even when he goes 1-2 and you pick up 3.4 units - you will see the value...
Especially look for scenarios like this Boston & Minnesota game where you have a Minnesota team capable of winning - i mean they are 38-30, with a winning road record, only 1 win less than Boston - this is the time to take your shot against the big pitcher like Schilling...if this play drops - i keep it in mind for when Schilling is -230 or higher in the future & play against again...if it fails 3 times in a row...start w/ a new pitcher
Play on Minnesota +220
Risking 3 units to win 6.6 units
2nd play:
I like Oakland to beat Anaheim tonight. Tim Hudson has been sensational and in his last 21 starts against the Angels sports a sweet 13W-5L record w/ 3.25 era...Hudson has pitched well all year and I know Anaheim has done well so far against Oakland, and Oakland is on a 3 game skid, but look for Hudson to get the job done - much better pitcher, at a valued price...take a shot on Oakland tonight
Play on Oakland -130
Risking 3.9 units to win 3 units
Gl to you all!
--Save It (formerly known as TrumpTight)
